luni, 23 noiembrie 2015

Seth's Blog : Thanksgiving reminder



Thanksgiving reminder

Today's a good day to download The Thanksgiving Reader. It's free to share, of course.

We're gratified at the huge number of families that have already downloaded and printed a copy. And the creative ways people are choosing to share it. A school in California printed a copy for each of their staff, and distributed them in beautiful folios. 

If each of us shares it with ten people this week, we'll have created a new tradition.

Have a wonderful holiday.

       

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Seth's Blog : Is productive the same as busy?



Is productive the same as busy?

No one complains of having spent an entire day doing 'productive work'. Busywork, on the other hand, is mindnumbing.

It's possible that if you have a job where your tasks (your busy-ness) is programmed by someone else, that being busy is your job.

For everyone else, though, busy might be precisely the opposite of productive.

Maybe the best exhortation isn't to, "get busy."

Instead, perhaps it involves slowing down enough to feel the fear. The fear that we might only hear in the quiet moments, in the gaps between crises.

The fear is a necessary part of actually being productive in doing creative work.

       

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duminică, 22 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Brussels Closed Second Day; Spain and UK Consider Joining Fight Against ISIS; Creating Enemies When None Exist

Posted: 22 Nov 2015 11:33 AM PST

Belgium Terrorist Manhunt Continues

Following Saturday's imminent attack alert in which Belgium shops were closed and sporting events cancelled, Brussels Remains on Terror Shutdown
Brussels remained in lockdown for a second day on Sunday as Paris sought to spearhead an international response to retaliate against Isis in the wake of the attacks that killed 130 in the French capital.

Belgium raised its terror alert in Brussels to the maximum on Saturday, cancelling major sports events and concerts. Many big shops, museums and restaurants were also closed, after Charles Michel, prime minister, said there was an imminent risk that a group of jihadis was preparing simultaneous attacks with guns and explosives.

Public fears centre on Mr Abdeslam, who was driven back to Brussels immediately after the Paris attacks.

Some of Mr Abdeslam's friends, who had spoken to him via phone since then, told the US broadcaster ABC that he felt trapped between French and Belgian authorities on one side and Islamic State, known as Isis, on the other, which was angry that he had not detonated his belt in the Paris attack.

Koen Geens, the justice minister, said that the hunt for suspects was continuing, and stressed that he knew the identities of at least some of the jihadis being sought. He said that Belgium would re-evaluate the risks on Sunday afternoon, but added that the metro was likely to resume services on Monday.

Jean-Yves Le Drian, French defence minister, on Sunday saluted signs that France was no longer isolated in Europe in the fight against Islamist terrorism.

Spain is considering sending troops to Africa to relieve French soldiers deployed to contain the threat of jihadis in Mali and across the Sahel desert, Mr Le Drian said. "Some are considering to bomb Daesh (Isis), I know the UK is, but there are others. Some are willing to provide logistical support, in the form of a tactical carrier aircraft or a helicopter." Belgium and the UK have deployed a military ship in the eastern Mediterranean, he added.

Le Drian also pointed that Russia had shifted position in Syria, following the bombing by Isis of a Russian passenger jet over the Sinai. "They are bombing Raqqa," he said.

He acknowledged however that troops on the ground would have to be sent to eradicate Isis. "A victory, the destruction of Isis requires troops on the ground," he said. "Not necessarily French."
UN Passes Resolution on ISIS

Last Friday the UN Passed Resolution Urging Action Against Isis.
The UN unanimously approved a resolution on Friday calling on governments to "take all necessary measures" in the fight against the Islamist militants of Isis.

Introduced by France, the Security Council resolution was an attempt to show international unity in the wake of the Paris attacks that killed 130 people and the Mali hotel attack, which took place only hours before the vote.

The vote on Friday represents a rare moment of international unity over Syria at the UN following several years of divisions that have often pitted western countries against Russia. Earlier in the week, the Russians introduced their own counter-terrorism resolution that had a broader focus than Isis and implied international co-operation with the Assad regime in Syria, however it was not taken up for consideration.

The resolution calls on UN members to "take all necessary measures, in compliance with international law" against Isis and called for the eradication of "safe havens" in Syria and Iraq. As well as Isis, it also includes Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria.

It does not invoke Article 7 of the UN Charter, which provides an international legal underpinning for outside military intervention.

However, the main powers on the Security Council remain divided on one of the central issues of how to bring about an end to the Syrian conflict and the long-term role of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad.
Assad Is No Threat

Given Assad is no credible threat to the US, it is absurd the US wants to make the overthrow of Assad part of the package.

Mindless meddling, inane overthrows of state leaders like Saddam Hussein, and nation building, created this mess.

Cameron Seeks Parliament Support for Attacks on ISIS

In the UK, David Cameron Seeks Commons Approval for Isis Air Strikes.
David Cameron is hoping to win House of Commons approval for RAF air strikes against Isis targets in Syria next month, amid signs that dozens of Labour MPs could defy party leader Jeremy Corbyn and vote for military action.

The UK prime minister will on Thursday give a detailed statement on the case for British attacks on the terrorist group in Syria, as part of a wider diplomatic and humanitarian settlement in the country.

Meanwhile Mr Corbyn, who is opposed to military action, is under mounting pressure to let Labour MPs have a free vote on the issue, reflecting a deep split in the party.

The prime minister's team is now increasingly confident that a sufficient number of Labour MPs will back military intervention in Syria to secure a Commons victory in a vote that could come before Christmas.

Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne are haunted by their failure to win Commons support for military intervention in Syria in 2013, although at that time the government wanted to target the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
Reflections on Assad

Had Assad been overthrown, it's likely ISIS would now be in control of the entire country.

Mindless meddling, the CIA's hopeless training programs, and the sending of US weapons to the region all strengthened ISIS' hand.

"The experience of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya has convinced many of our own people that the elite's enthusiasm for endless military interventions has only multiplied the threats to us — while leaving death and destabilisation in their wake," said Corbyn.

Assad was never a threat. ISIS is. Ironically, ISIS is a US/UK creation that is a direct result of US/UK actions against non-threats.

We blew up Iraq for no reason, killed or wounded hundreds of thousands of innocent people in the process, destroyed the country's infrastructure, and ignited a religious civil war, in a country that had religious freedoms.

In the process, US/UK actions created millions of extremely upset citizens. An incalculable number of those Iraqis became radicalized terrorists.

Haunted by "Action"

The Financial Times' comment "Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne are haunted by their failure to win Commons support for military intervention in Syria in 2013", is preposterous.

The UK is haunted by action, not inaction.

Tony Blair's "action" of joining president Bush in the militarily and socially stupid overthrow of Hussein directly led to the creation of ISIS.

With perpetual warmongering the clear goal, the US and UK fabricated an enemy where none really existed.

Tony Blair has admitted mistakes (see Tony Blair Apologizes for Creation of ISIS) but obviously no lessons were learned.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Guess Who's Better at Figuring Out Song Lyrics [Infographic]

Posted: 22 Nov 2015 10:19 AM PST

Now, this is just for fun, and not exactly scientifically rigorous, but we did do our best to make it as even a match as possible. First, we found a capella versions of each song, so Watson wouldn't be confused by the rest of the music. We also asked the transcriptionists to pinky-swear that they'd never heard these songs before, and that they wouldn't use Google to double-check their work.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via verbalink



Seth's Blog : Did you do the reading?



Did you do the reading?

It's absurd to think of going to a book group meeting and opining about a book you didn't even read.

More rude: Going to a PhD seminar and participating in the discussion without reading the book first.

And of course, no one wants a surgeon operating on them if she hasn't read the latest journal article on this particular procedure.

It makes no sense to me to vote for a candidate who doesn't care enough to have read (and understood) the history of those that came before.

A first hurdle: Are you aware of what the reading (your reading) must include? What's on the list? The more professional your field, the more likely it is that people know what's on the list.

The reading isn't merely a book, of course. The reading is what we call it when you do the difficult work of learning to think with the best, to stay caught up, to understand.

The reading exposes you to the state of the art. The reading helps you follow a thought-through line of reasoning and agree, or even better, challenge it. The reading takes effort.

If you haven't done the reading, why expect to be treated as a professional?

       

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sâmbătă, 21 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Oil Patch Problems: Rigs Down 60%, Production Down 3%, $40-$50 Price Doesn't Work

Posted: 21 Nov 2015 05:12 PM PST

With every bounce in the price of oil, US producers used enhanced techniques to get more and more oil out of existing wells. So even as rig counts collapsed, production is barely off the highs, at a price that isn't even profitable.

Oil Flirts with $40 Again



Prices are once again flirting with $40. Crude has not hand a monthly close below $40 since mid-2004. And $40 to $50 is not even profitable, putting producers into a bind.

Oil Patch Problems

The Wall Street Journal explains Low Crude Prices Catch Up With the U.S. Oil Patch.
U.S. companies have stunned global rivals by continuing to produce oil—particularly from shale deposits—ever more cheaply as American crude prices plunged from over $100 a barrel in 2014. But the recent drop toward $40 a barrel and below puts even the most efficient operators in a bind.

"Forty-dollar to fifty-dollar oil prices don't work in this business," Ryan Lance, chief executive of ConocoPhillips, the largest independent U.S. oil producer, said in an interview.

The worst-case scenario most major producers have discussed in the past six weeks with investors involved a price of $50 a barrel. That is beginning to look optimistic as Saudi Arabia continues to produce near-record volumes and major exporters such as Iraq have increased output. Many oil executives, including BP PLC CEO Bob Dudley, expect prices to be "lower for longer." The U.S. Energy Department is forecasting the price of oil will average around $50 a barrel next year.

Breakeven Price



More than 250,000 people world-wide have lost their jobs in the industry over the past year, according to Graves & Co., a Houston consulting firm. Many companies that were hoping to weather low energy prices without new rounds of layoffs and salary cuts may be forced to slash those costs yet again, said Eric Lee, an energy analyst with Citigroup.

"We're really reaching the limit of what people can do," said Allen Gilmer, chief executive of DrillingInfo, an Austin, Texas company that compiles data on tens of thousands of shale wells across North America. "Right now, you are down to the best areas, the best rigs, the best people. Any cuts from now on are bone rather than fat."

Earlier this month, EOG Resources Inc., a Houston-based shale driller, said some of its most prolific wells would yield a rate of return above 40%, even with U.S. oil prices at $50 a barrel.

But break-even prices don't always give the whole picture of how much money a shale company must spend to pump oil and move it to market. They can exclude land costs, which for some companies amount to billions of dollars, and they don't include the cost of using pipelines to transport crude, according to company financial statements and analyst reports.

In nearly all of its investor presentations this year, EOG has said it can turn a profit at prices at or below the prevailing oil price at the time of the presentation. Yet more than $6 billion in capital spending this year has produced nearly $4 billion in net losses over the past year for the company, which is an industry bellwether.

The company, which has said $40 oil is unsustainable, didn't respond to requests for comment.

EOG isn't alone. In the past 12 months, the 24 largest shale companies have reported losses totaling more than $62 billion and many show negative returns.
At $40, oil patch bankruptcies will soar.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Brussels Enters Lockdown, Warns of "Paris-Style" Attack, Airport and Sporting Events Closed

Posted: 21 Nov 2015 09:25 AM PST

Officials in Belgium have "precise information" that Brussels faces a "Paris-Style" Attack. In response Brussels Enters Lockdown.
Brussels faces an imminent threat of a Paris-style Islamic State terrorist attack, authorities warned, as the city shut down its metro system and shopping malls, canceled sporting and cultural events and told people to avoid gathering in large groups.

"We have precise information that outlines the risk of an attack similar to the one that unfolded in Paris," Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel told a press conference Saturday morning in Brussels. "It is a threat based on the theory that it would take place with arms and explosives, maybe even in several places and at the same time."

Authorities canceled sporting events and cultural activities around the Belgian capital. Professional soccer games were postponed, movie theaters, opera houses, libraries and galleries closed and shopping malls and department stores shut their doors. The city's Atomium tourist venue didn't open on Saturday, while night clubs and concert venues said they wouldn't open in the evening.

"We have enough pieces of information to judge that the threat is precise and imminent," said Foreign Minister Didier Reynders, according to Belga newswire. "It's normal that there is a certain feeling of fear after what happened in Paris and Bamako," he said in a reference to al-Qaeda-linked gunmen killing at least 21 people at a luxury hotel in Mali's capital on Friday.

The Brussels metro will remain closed until at least Sunday afternoon, Michel told reporters Saturday morning after a meeting of the national security council. The council will meet again on Sunday to decide whether to extend the closure beyond the weekend.

The terror warning came hours after the United Nations on Friday unanimously endorsed a resolution calling for countries to take "all necessary measures" to combat so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, warning that the group intends further attacks like those that in the French capital.
Imprecise Information

The above information seems more "general" than precise. Is the threat even real?

Yet, it's tough to second-guess the actions taken now simply because we don't know what the authorities know.

But unless those in the plot are captured today (assuming there is a plot), will the airport be any safer on Sunday or Monday?

Now that fears are heightened, one obvious risk is a series of idle threats that will shut down cities, time and time again.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock