sâmbătă, 28 noiembrie 2015

Seth's Blog : Past performance is not indicative of future results



Past performance is not indicative of future results

This is clearly and demonstrably true of mutual funds. It's easy to confirm.

And yet...

We are very uncomfortable with randomness. So the newspaper does a 12 page section of mutual funds, filled with articles and ads and charts, all touting past performance. 

Superstition is what we call the belief in causation due to a mistaken correlation of unrelated data. A broken mirror doesn't actually cause seven years of bad luck, and cheering in a certain way isn't going to help the Yankees, sorry.

Of course, we don't live in a completely random world. The scientific method and statistics make it more likely than ever that you can find trends that actually matter. 

The hard part is accepting that the random things actually are unpredictable, and refusing to spend time or money guessing on what can't be reliably guessed. It frees up a lot of time and resources to focus on the things that are actually worth measuring.

       

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vineri, 27 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Thin Crowds, Subdued Shopping on Black and Blue Friday; Thanksgiving Shopping a Bust

Posted: 27 Nov 2015 09:45 AM PST

Retailers, especially big-box retailers will be blue if light shopping carries over for the rest of the season. The Wall Street Journal reports Thinner Crowds on Black Friday.
Millions of Americans left their Thanksgiving meals to hit stores across the country in an annual shopping ritual, but the crowds on early Black Friday morning were thinner than years past at some malls and shopping districts.

Thinner crowds could spell problems for retailers, some of whom entered the holidays warning of uneven consumer demand and elevated levels of inventory. But the smaller crowds could also reflect deeper changes in how Americans shop: Increasingly, they are spending more online and making fewer visits to stores.

Driving up to a nearly empty parking lot at a Wal-Mart in Houston on Friday morning, Dora Rodriguez, 39 years old, stopped her silver hatchback in surprise and called out her window to another shopper: "Excuse me, the Black Friday sale—it's ended already?"

Thirty-six percent of consumers said they planned to shop online only during this year's holiday season, up from 19% who said so last year, according to the investment bank Jefferies. By comparison, just 18% of consumers said they planned to shop only in physical stores this year, down from 35% who said so a year ago.

"The competition is led by Amazon and that factors into how other retailers set their prices," said Paul Trussell, a Deutsche Bank analyst.
Subdued Start to Shopping Season

Reuters reports Black Friday Crowds Thin in Subdued Start to U.S. Holiday Shopping.
Crowds were thin at U.S. stores and shopping malls in the early hours of Black Friday and on Thanksgiving evening as shoppers responded to early holiday discounts with caution and bad weather hurt turnout.

"We believe Thanksgiving shopping was a bust," analysts at Suntrust Robinson Humphrey said in a research note. "Members of our team who went to the malls first had no problem finding parking or navigating stores."

Scott Tuhy, vice-president at Moody's who tracks companies like Macy's Inc (M.N), said crowds on Thursday evening in New Jersey were steady but not busy. He said some stores saw a fair amount of activity around orders that were placed online and picked up in stores.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Unbelievable Lie of the Day: Turkey Says It Had Not Recognized the Aircraft as Russian When it Shot it Down

Posted: 27 Nov 2015 12:07 AM PST

In the wake of conflicting flight path information with Russian and Turkey differing on the flight path of the Russian aircraft that Turkey downed over Syria, comes the incredulous claim that Turkey did not recognize the aircraft as Russian when it shot the aircraft down.

This unbelievable statement comes as Hollande and Putin Seek Common Ground but Remain at Odds Over Syrian Targets.
The leaders of France and Russia held more than three hours of talks at the Kremlin focusing on the fate of the Syrian president and on which parts of the armed opposition should be protected from air strikes.

The summit was part of Mr Hollande's push for a broader coalition against Islamist radicals Isis after the attacks in Paris a week ago.

After the talks, Mr Hollande said he and Mr Putin had agreed on three basic points. "First, we will intensify the exchange of intelligence and any other information between our militaries. Second, the strikes on Isis will intensify and become part of a co-ordinated campaign in order to make them more efficient. Third — and Mr Putin also stressed this — we must focus our air strikes on Isis and other terrorist groups."

The gulf between the leaders on the future of Mr Assad remained as wide as ever. Mr Hollande reiterated his position that Mr Assad "cannot play a role in the future of this country" but Mr Putin rebuffed him, repeating his standard phrase that only the Syrian people could determine the future of their country.

The issue of widely diverging goals of the external actors in the Syrian war gained renewed urgency after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet on Tuesday which it said had violated its airspace. Ankara's move is believed to have been partly motivated by the fact that Russia's air force has been bombarding Turkmen villages in northern Syria, an ethnic group that Turkey views as an ally.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that Ankara had not recognised the aircraft as Russian when it shot it down. Following a slew of announcements of economic retaliation against Turkey, Mr Putin angrily dismissed this claim as "impossible" and said Russia had provided the US with information on the time and location of its sorties.

"Since Turkey is a member of Nato, they should have known. Did they think it was a US plane?" Mr Putin said. "All we hear is lame excuses. Well, that's their choice, it's not our choice."
Impossible

Putin's claim is correct. It is impossible to believe Turkey did not know who it was shooting at.

In fact, the claim is so absurd, and so much an obvious bald-faced lie, one has to question Turkey's claim that the Russian aircraft did indeed violate Turkey's air space.

Competing Claims



The above image from Turkish military releases recording of 'warnings' sent to downed warplane, Russia disputes flight path.

Turkey claims it issued warnings. I do not believe those warning claims are in dispute. What is in dispute are conflicting flight path claims.

If Russia violated Turkish air space, it was for at most a few seconds. But here's the real question at this point: After Turkey's unbelievable lie that it did not know what it was shooting at, how can anyone possibly believe Turkey, on anything, related to this matter?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock 

Damn Cool Pics


Damn Cool Pics


Posted: 27 Nov 2015 07:23 PM PST
Sylvester Stallone recently showed off his beautiful family on the red carpet for the premiere of "Creed." Stallone is a lucky man. He's had a great career and now he's surrounded by beautiful women.























Posted: 27 Nov 2015 04:42 PM PST
This is not the type of thing you want your mom to talk about on social media.




















Posted: 27 Nov 2015 04:38 PM PST
If you're going shopping on Black Friday, just try not to get bit. You don't want to turn into one of them.

















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