Central Perk

joi, 17 decembrie 2015

When should a blog be used as a form of content marketing?

Posted: 16 Dec 2015 10:00 PM PST

You've probably heard it all 100,000,000 times before:

"If your business doesn't have a blog you won't succeed"
"Blogging helps your SEO – why aren't you doing it?"
"Why haven't you been blogging for the last 5 years?"
"What's your 2016 blogging strategy?"

According to a number of industry influencers, if you aren't blogging, you're failing. If you didn't know already, a blog can bring world peace, cure the common cold and even find you the perfect spouse. No really, it's repeated time and time again that a blog can expand your audience, build traffic and improve engagement on your site.

Whilst the power of a good blog on the right site cannot be tainted, and having one can actually bring all of those good things, you should always question the relevancy and the ROI. When and why should you be blogging?

When is a blog not always the right form of content marketing?

1. When you have a better way to attract customers to the top of the funnel.

To put it plainly, a blog is only one way of attracting new customers. Solicitors don't tend to blog; they simply don't have the time or resource, rather they are likely to gain new customers through word of mouth referrals.

If paid search brings you in £60k and your blog contributes to £10k, it's probably justifiable to prioritise paid search (but consider running the blog in the background). If you create whitepapers and find these are the hottest leads for your company offering a 30:1 ROI over your blog readers, invest more time in your whitepaper strategy.

None of the above means you will NEVER have to write a blog or you should NEVER consider thinking about creating one, rather it's something to reassess when your rate of growth in any other channels changes. If you've crunched your numbers and the blog just doesn't cut the mustard right now, use the tactics your customers are currently utilising instead.

2. You think that thought leadership simply means regurgitating the news

There is a massive difference between creating new, relevant information and rehashing it. Truth is, most people or business just don't have the time or the vision to really commit to becoming a 'thought leader'.

A blog can be a big opportunity to show your audience how you understand and shape your industry but if you can't find someone who's dedicated to write blog posts that shape or expand upon the existing knowledge base, then I'd recommend you save your ink.

3. Your business is all about timely content

What if your brand is built only around messaging? The BBC does not need a blog because anyone on the site can expect up-to-date, timely content. If readers of the BBC want to engage with their content, they will comment on the articles or share them.

4. You own your own market

Coca Cola, Amazon, Google – it's safe to say that all of these companies have built their brand to a place where people recognise them and are familiar with their products. A blog would only provide them with a small benefit because they are already a well established and recognised brand, they won’t often get found through the blog, people will be making branded searches.

Traffic

Does Coca Cola really mind how much traffic comes to their site when you already have that six-pack of Coke cans in your fridge at home? Do they need to care? Probably not so much. They might take an interest in the numbers, but it's doubtful for traffic to be their main concern.

Audience

Need to order books or a new Xbox game? You don't need a blog to find Amazon. It's right there at the top of your history browser, and the product you ordered is being delivered today – remember?

Industry Authority

Google. Sure, they do have a blog, but most of Google's users see their platform as the primary search query engine that they don't necessarily have an interest in or a need for their blog.

When should you be investing in blogging?

Now let's take a quick look at when a blog might be useful to use as part of your content marketing strategy.

1. You want traffic to your site

The general consensus is that the more (necessary and relevant) pages you have built, the more likely you are to rank. Well, the more useful content you build on your blog, the more collateral you have to showcase to your audience via social, email and anywhere else!

2. You want to connect with people

Create an extra venue for your customers through your blog. A blog can be a host for your FAQ content, a place where you can experiment with new ideas and show off your knowledge base – all of which help your customers get to know you better. And whilst you're at it, you're creating a place for them to comment and interact with you. Winner!

3. You have something to add to the discussion

Ask yourself, do you have a strong opinion on what's going on within your industry? Do you have something to add? Share your interests and stories with a thoughtful commentary.

The bottom line

Don't blog because someone told you that you have to otherwise you might fail. A blog is a big investment and sustaining that blog is hard work.

Have you abstained from a blog for one reason or another? Or have you abstained before but suddenly realise the benefit for your business? Let me know in the comments below or get in touch with me on Twitter.

The post When should a blog be used as a form of content marketing? appeared first on White.net.

Seth's Blog : Paying the smart phone tax

Paying the smart phone tax

It might be costing you more than you think.

Urgent or important?: Your phone has been optimized to highlight the urgent. It buzzes and beeps. It sorts things. It brings everyone else's urgent things right under your nose, reminding you about them until they become your urgent things. A full day on your phone is almost certainly a day where you buried the important in favor of the urgent.

The moment: The smart phone brings the world to us, in our pocket. But if the entire world is there, presenting its urgencies, it's harder than ever to be here, right now, in this moment.

Brevity over density: Just about everything produced on a smart phone is done in a hurry, because there's something urgent happening just a click away. As a result, we favor brevity. Brevity in what we consume (LOL) and brevity in what we produce (GTG). It's not clear that brevity ought to be our goal in all things, or in how we spend hours of each day.

The filter bubble: Even more than on the web, the closed gardens of the smart phone world mean that we're most likely to consume ideas that we already understand, from people we already agree with. Not a path to growth, certainly.

Off the hook: Because it's so easy to hit 'send' and because there's so much noise, we can easily relieve the tension of creation with a simple click. Easy in, easy out, easy delete.

Like most things that are taxed, smart phones are often worth it, creating connections and giving us information when we need it. Perhaps, though, turning our phones off for six hours a day would be a useful way to cornering us into creating work we can't live without.

• Email to a friend •

miercuri, 16 decembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Paradigm Change: Saxo Bank's Ten Outrageous Predictions for 2016: Slide Show
Fed Hikes: Range Moves to 1/4 to 1/2 Range; Fed Signals Four More Hikes in 2016
Industrial Production Declines Most in 3.5 Years, Down Eighth Time in Ten Months

Paradigm Change: Saxo Bank's Ten Outrageous Predictions for 2016: Slide Show

Posted: 16 Dec 2015 04:14 PM PST

Every year, Saxo Bank CIO and chief economist Steen Jakobsen comes up with a selection of "outrageous" predictions for the new year.

Note: This is not the official Saxo forecast, but I do believe many of the ideas below are in-line with their general direction on things.

The predictions are not all that outrageous. I expect many will happen.

Here's the email from Steen.

Close of the Paradigm by Steen Jakobsen

The irony in this year's batch of outrageous predictions is that some of them are "outrageous" merely because they run counter to overwhelming market consensus. In fact, many would not look particularly outrageous at all in more "normal" times – if there even is such a thing!

In other words, it has become outrageous to suggest that emerging markets will outperform, that the Russian rouble will be the best-performing currency of 2016, and that the credit market will collapse under the weight of yet more issuance. We have been stuck in a zero-bound, forward-guidance lowering state for so long that there exists a whole generation of traders who have never seen a rate hike from the Federal Reserve. As we close out 2015, it has been nearly 12 years (early 2004) since the US economy was seen as recovering strongly enough to warrant starting a series of hikes - and that series ended in early 2006, nearly ten years ago.

Mind you, I have been trading for over 25 years and I have only seen three Fed rate hike cycles in my entire career: 1994, 1998 and 2004.

We are truly entering a new paradigm for many market participants and the new reality is that the marginal cost of money will rise, and thus so will volatility and uncertainty.
All of this is embedded in this year's Outrageous Predictions. As always, it's rewarding to see how our customers pitch in and how this publication creates a stimulating debate. Our hope is that these predictions might both inspire you and unsettle your more complacent assumptions.

More than anything, we encourage you to join the debate – whether you agree or want to push back and argue the other side. It is this process of discussion and thinking outside the box that is at the heart of Saxo's now quite long history of outrageous predictions.

Let me again and for good order's sake remind you that this is not Saxo Bank's official forecast. It is, however, a set of ten independent events which we at the time of writing think could have a material impact on your portfolio should they come to fruition.

2015 was a poor year for us in terms of predicting the outrageous, but as I travelled around the world over the past 12 months it became obvious to me that we are at some sort of an "end of the road" in terms of world markets.

We are at the close of the paradigm that has reigned since the response to the global financial crisis. Quantitative easing and the policy response have failed us, China is transitioning, and geopolitical tensions are as complicated and hot as ever, to name just three key factors.

I hope that this year's suite of predictions will prepare you for whatever comes our way in 2016, and while we can hardly hope to be right on more than one or two predictions each year, we'd like to think that these "outrageous" calls have at the very least a greater probability of coming true than the near-constantly wrong consensus.

I wish you a happy holiday and a good trading year in 2016!

Steen Jakobsen / CIO

Outrageous Powerpoint

Here's the Saxo PowerPoint Presentation that you can download if desired.

1. Euro Rallies to 1.23

2. Rise of the Ruble

For a text explanation behind each view please see Saxo Bank Outrageous Predictions for 2016.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Fed Hikes: Range Moves to 1/4 to 1/2 Range; Fed Signals Four More Hikes in 2016

Posted: 16 Dec 2015 11:06 AM PST

Today, the Fed hiked by 1/4 point as widely expected and signaled. Here is a snip from the Fed's Statement

The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Fed moved its target range from 0-25 basis points to 25-50 basis points. Within that range it will be interesting to watch how the Fed actually positions increases and how fast.

Fed Signals Four More Hikes in 2016

Bloomberg reports Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era; Signals 4 Quarter-Point 2016 Increase .

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in a widely telegraphed move while signaling that the pace of subsequent increases will be "gradual" and in line with previous projections.

The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, up from zero to 0.25 percent. Policy makers separately forecast an appropriate rate of 1.375 percent at the end of 2016, the same as September, implying four quarter-point increases in the target range next year, based on the median number from 17 officials.

Will the Fed hike 4 times? I highly doubt it. We will find out soon enough.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Industrial Production Declines Most in 3.5 Years, Down Eighth Time in Ten Months

Posted: 16 Dec 2015 09:22 AM PST

Industrial production shocked to the downside this morning with a drop of 0.6%, the most in 3.5 years vs. an Econoday Consensus guess of -0.2%. Moreover, last month was revised lower, from -0.2% to -0.4%.

November was another weak month for the industrial economy, in part reflecting unusually warm temperatures that are driving down utility output. Industrial production came in at the Econoday low forecast, down a very sharp 0.6 percent in November. This is the biggest drop in 3-1/2 years. Utility output fell a monthly 4.3 percent after falling 2.8 percent in October. Mining, reflecting low commodity prices and contraction in energy extraction, has also been week, down 1.1 percent for a third straight decline.

This brings us to the most important component, manufacturing where October's 0.3 percent bounce higher (revised downward from 0.4 percent) now unfortunately looks like an outlier. Manufacturing production came in unchanged in November reflecting weakness in motor vehicles, down 1.0 percent in the month, and also a dip back for construction supplies which fell 0.2 percent after a weather-related surge of 2.3 percent in October. One positive is a slight snapback for business equipment which, after declines in the two prior months, rose 0.2 percent.

All the weakness is pulling down capacity utilization, to 77.0 percent in November for a heavy 5 tenths dip. Utilization is running more than 3 percentage points below its long-term average. Mining utilization is now under 80 percent, down 1.1 points in the month to 79.4 percent. Utility utilization fell 3.4 points in the month to 74.5 percent with manufacturing utilization down 1 tenth to 76.2 percent. Excess capacity, though not cited as a major factor behind the lack of inflation in the economy, does hold down the cost of goods.

Year-on-year rates confirm the weakness, down 1.2 percent overall with utilities down 7.6 percent and mining down 8.2 percent. Manufacturing is in the plus column but not by much at plus 0.9 percent. Weather factors are skewing utility output but otherwise, readings are fundamentally soft and reflect the downturn in global demand made more severe for U.S. producers by strength in the dollar.

Fundamentally Soft

For comparison purposes, let's check out what Bloomberg had to say last month vs. what I said last month.

The comparison can be found in my November 17 report Industrial Production Unexpectedly Declines Again: Don't Worry, It's the Weather and Mining.

Bloomberg on Industrial Production Nov 17

In a deceptive headline, industrial production fell 0.2 percent in October but weakness is in utilities and mining. Boosted by construction supplies, manufacturing, which is the core component in this report, rose a very solid and higher-than-expected 0.4 percent to end two prior months of decline. ... Construction supplies jumped 1.7 percent in the month in a reminder of how strong construction spending is right now. ... Utility output, reflecting the nation's unseasonably warm weather, was really down October, falling 2.5 percent. Year-on-year output is down 1.5 percent. Mining output, the report's third main component after manufacturing and utilities, fell 1.5 percent. This component, down a year-on-year 6.9 percent, has been getting hit by weak commodity prices. ... It's not been easy to find good news out of the manufacturing sector which makes this report a standout of sorts. Gains in production, however, would have to extend through year-end to turnaround what has been a weak, export-hit year for the manufacturing sector.

Mish on Industrial Production November 17

If you throw out consumer spending, utilities, mining, total utilization, downward revisions to total utilization, and pray consumer auto buying holds up, this was an excellent report.

Industrial Production Y/Y and M/M

Hidden Strengths and Weaknesses

Industrial production is down for the eighth time in ten months. There is no deceptive decline, nor hidden strength. Everything is in plain sight.

For discussion on hidden strengths and hidden weaknesses, please see ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

airBaltic Has Released A 2016 Calendar Featuring Their Gorgeous Flight Attendants

Posted: 16 Dec 2015 01:38 PM PST

Latvian national airline airBaltic decided to put out a calendar for 2016 featuring some of their most beautiful flight attendants. Don't be surprised if you see increased attendance on their flights thanks to these lovely ladies.

Seth's Blog : Regrets as fuel

Regrets as fuel

If regrets about yesterday's decisions and actions help you do better work today, then they've served a useful purpose.

"I wish I'd taken that job."

"I should have been more careful before I shipped that out the door."

"I could have been more kind."

"I'll do better next time."

Most of the time, though, we use regrets to keep us from moving forward. They paralyze us in the face of possibility. We don't want to do something if it reminds us of that black hole we have in our past.

It's useful if you can forgive yourself, because the regrets you're carrying around are keeping you from holding onto the possibility that you can contribute even more tomorrow.

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marți, 15 decembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Knowing the Unknowable; Reflections on the Fed Hike
Lincolnshire, Illinois Approves Right-to-Work Ordinance; Battle Headed for Courts
Empire State Manufacturing Contracts Fifth Month, Employment and Workweek Worst Since 2009

Knowing the Unknowable; Reflections on the Fed Hike

Posted: 15 Dec 2015 04:44 PM PST

In the past week, two readers, one of them a blogger, professed to "know" something that cannot possibly be known.

"Epocalypse" Now

The first person, an economic blogger, tells me a global economic collapse of biblical proportion is coming. He labels the collapse an "epocalypse" and offered a guest-post article that I passed on.

I responded "No one knows the precise timing of a collapse. There might not even be one.
Stocks could do a slow decline like Japan for years."

You can start a countdown, because yesterday he pinged back "Check in with me at the end of the week."

Crunch Time

Reader "BL" wrote ...

Hello Mish,

It is crunch time. An escalation in interest rates will immediately bankrupt the United States because the country will be unable to service the eighteen plus trillion dollar debt.

The United States economy will collapse fifteen days after an increase in the interest rate. That is the real reason that Janet Yellen will do nothing forever. Do the math. What is the cost of a 1% increase in the national debt?

What are you afraid of? Speak the truth. Stocks are overvalued and will continue to be so until the crash. When will the crash occur? You know the answer. You have always known the answer. Tell the truth. The crash may occur before the next presidential election. What will that mean? You also know the answer to that question.

It is crunch time. Speak the truth or be buried by the truth. Your choice.

Sincerely
BL

Impossible to Know the Unknowable

I responded to BL with the following challenge (slightly abbreviated from my original reply).

Anyone who claims they know precisely when stocks will collapse is either a fool or a charlatan.

But since you "know" stocks will collapse 15 days after a hike, I suggest you put everything you have on it with PUTs. What could you possibly be afraid of?

It's crunch time, do as you say or don't tell me you know what will happen. Your choice.

Second Thoughts

BL had second thoughts.

Hi Mish,

I appreciate your humor. Thus I take on the dual moniker of fool and charlatan.

So, you have two points. The first is that no one can "know" that the market will collapse if the "Fed" raises interest rates. And your second point is that only a fool or charlatan can claim that the market will collapse within 15 days of a raise in interest rates.

I actually believe you are better equipped than I to find and identify a number of macroeconomic reasons why the market will collapse with a raise in interest rates. You have touched on many of the reasons in the last year by pointing to other articles and sources.

We are not on opposite sides of a financial war. We are on the same side in the same battle. Up until now, it has been a "cold" war. It becomes a "hot" war when stocks go down precipitously. Then what happens?

Thank you for responding. It means you are listening to your readers. That's a good thing.

Sincerely
BL

Reflections on the Fed Hike

We can all find countless reasons why the stock market should sink. But we had the same reasons a year ago, even two years ago.

Will a simple hike be enough to prick the bubble? Don't be so sure.

Recall that the stock market rose for two years after housing topped. I have the peak of housing summer of 2005. Case-Shiller has it summer 2006.

I believe Case-Shiller misses the mark because of under-the-table kickbacks like free cars, free trips, and even free cash back at closing that were not accurately accounted for.

Regardless, even if Summer of 2006 was the top, the market rose for another 16 months after housing topped. So why can't the market rise for another three months or more after a hike?

Fundamentals

Realistically, 1/8 or 1/4 point will do nothing fundamentally. As a function of sentiment, it's entirely conceivable a smaller than expected hike causes a spike-high euphoria.

How Big the Hike?

I made the claim many times over the past few months that if the Fed hiked, it would likely be by 1/8 point (12.5 basis points). We will see. But even if the Fed gives the expected range of 25-50 basis points tomorrow (up from 0-25), that does not mean I was wrong.

We have to see where the Fed actually targets the rate within the range it provides. If the fed targets 25 basis points, up from roughly 12.5 then a 1/8 of a point hike was the correct call.

Gaming the Reaction

What will the reaction be to a range of 25-37.5 basis points? To a range of 25-50 hike with an initial target of 25? With an initial target of 37.5?

How the hell can anyone possibly know? The Fed doesn't even know.

Any reaction is possible tomorrow, including nothing. And a big yawn would wipe out both PUTs and CALLs by everyone who thinks something must happen. The winner in that scenario would be the option sellers, not buyers.

It's all a guess. I have no particular edge as to what happens over the course of the next two weeks let alone three days. I believe I do have an edge as to what happens over the long haul when valuations get as stretched as these.

The important point is neither sentiment nor valuation is a timing mechanism. To that one can add baby step interest rate hikes that are fundamentally meaningless.

I strongly advise market participants to not act as if they know that which is simply unknowable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Lincolnshire, Illinois Approves Right-to-Work Ordinance; Battle Headed for Courts

Posted: 15 Dec 2015 11:33 AM PST

Congratulations to the village board of Lincolnshire, Illinois for having the courage to stand up to union bullies by passing right-to work legislation at the local level.

The Daily Herald reports Lincolnshire Creates Right-to-Work Zone that Unions Oppose.

Lincolnshire has become the first town in the Chicago area to establish itself as a right-to-work zone, a move critics have assailed as anti-union.

To create the zone, the village board approved an ordinance preventing local employers from requiring workers to pay union dues with payroll deductions.

That proposal was a major tenet of Gov. Bruce Rauner's controversial Turnaround Agenda for Illinois, which many people have blasted as being anti-union.

Elements of the Turnaround Agenda -- especially the right-to-work proposal -- have been criticized as unconstitutional, too.

In a formal opinion issued in March, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan said federal labor law allows such policies to be enacted only on a statewide basis.

But that didn't stop Lincolnshire's village board Monday, which quickly approved the plan after listening to an hour of public comments.

Courage to Take a Stand

Unions packed the village halls as they normally do for such affairs.

Coercion, threats, and backroom deals with corrupt politicians to get their way are all part of union tactics.

But in a 5-1 vote, the board had the courage to do the right thing.

"This is union busting," Chicago resident and union organizer Ken Edwards told the board. "You the trustees are being used. The 1 percent are using you to get to us."

Ted Dabrowski, vice president and spokesman for the Illinois Policy Institute, a group that has promoted right-to-work legislation responded with the simple truth.

"This isn't about unions, it's about individual freedoms. It's also about the right to not join a union," said Dabrowski who is part of a group that created a model ordinance that Lincolnshire officials used to draft their own.

As a senior fellow of the Illinois Policy Institute, I applaud the trustees courage to take the correct stand.

Right to Not Belong

I champion national right-to-work legislation as well as elimination of prevailing wage laws that tie many states to unions or union wage scales even in right-to-work states.

No one should be able to force anyone to belong to a union to get a job. That is the heart of the matter.

Is this union busting? Of course it is.

But forced membership against one's free will constitutes slavery. So by all means, let's bust up the biggest slavery racket in the world: forced unionization.

Union busting of this nature is long overdue here, there, and everywhere.

Tide is Turning

Lisa Madigan will challenge the ruling. Should Madigan prevail in Illinois, I expect the US Supreme Court to hear the case with potential nationwide implications.

In July of 2014, the US Supreme Court Rules Government Cannot Force-Unionize Workers Into State Entitlement Programs.

In Harris vs. Quinn, the court's 5-4 decision ruled in favor of plaintiff Pam Harris over then Illinois governor Pat Quinn.

Harris a mother from suburban Chicago who did not want to be part of a union or pay union dues. She takes care of her disabled son and participates in a state Medicaid program.

The justices ruled that Medicaid beneficiaries and people participating in state entitlement programs are not state employees, and cannot be forced into a union or forced to pay union dues.

Paul Kersey at the Illinois Policy Institute explained:

For more than a decade, government unions have been forcing people who are not state workers – moms and dads caring for children with developmental disabilities, home day-care providers for low-income children and others – to pay dues to a union as a condition of receiving help from their state governments. Both Gov. Pat Quinn and now-disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich issued executive orders allowing the unionization of people who were not state workers. This resulted in Illinois government unions making $20 million a year from these workers, many of whom never wanted to join or pay dues to a union in the first place.

Fortunately, today the U.S. Supreme Court has affirmed that plaintiff Pam Harris won't have to jeopardize and limit her son's care by being forced to join a union she does not want, agree with or support.

Not Far Enough

Want to be a public school teacher, plumber, electrification, etc., etc. in Illinois? If so, you have to pay union dues.

In essence, you cannot work many trades unless you agree to be a union member, paying union dues. That needs to end right now.

My only problem with the 2014 ruling was that it did not go far enough. The court did not make the final step of mandating national right-to-work practices and eliminating forced union dues altogether.

An Illinois challenge by Madigan will give the US Supreme court another chance to do what they should have done in 2014: kill forced unionization across the board.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Empire State Manufacturing Contracts Fifth Month, Employment and Workweek Worst Since 2009

Posted: 15 Dec 2015 09:35 AM PST

Empire State Manufacturing Employment and Workweek Worst Since 2009

As expected, the Empire State Manufacturing Index is in contraction for the fifth consecutive month. Employment and workweek both collapsed.

Economists pretty much got the index correct with a Consensus Estimate of -7.00 vs. the actual reading of -4.59.

Factory activity continues to contract in the New York manufacturing region and especially, unfortunately, employment and the workweek. The Empire State index posted its fifth negative reading in a row, minus 4.59 for December which however is the least weak reading of the run. New orders, at minus 5.07, are down for a seventh month in a row but here to the degree of contraction is easing. Not easing, however, is employment which is deeply negative at minus 16.16 for the fourth contraction in a row and the deepest since July 2009. The workweek is another disappointment, at minus 27.27 for the worst reading since even further back, to April 2009.

But there are pluses in this report led by a big gain for the six-month outlook, to 38.51 from 20.33. The gain reflects greater optimism for new orders and shipments but no greater optimism for employment where hiring is expected to be no more than moderate.

Turning back to negatives, prices received are down for a fourth month in a row, at minus 4.04. Contraction in prices for finished goods points to price concessions and lack of demand.

The recovery worst readings for employment and the workweek are definitely worrisome signs. Yes, this report has been running lower than other regional manufacturing reports but today's results do not point to any year-end lift for the factory sector which is being hit by low exports and low prices.

Six-Month Outlook Useless

There were no positives in this report. The six-month outlook is generally useless as I have proven before.

Bottoms tend to form just as everyone throws in the towel. Only following extreme negative sentiment, after everyone gives up, does the future outlook tend to be too pessimistic.

Thus, increasing optimism in the face of these negative readings is best viewed as worrisome, not a positive.

Manufacturing Overoptimism

Following is a chart of the Empire State Survey from last month showing expected conditions six months from now.

In the second chart below, I shifted the actual results to show what happened.

Current Business Conditions vs. Expected Conditions Six Months From Now

To see if there is any merit in tracking future projections, I downloaded the data, and shifted the projections ahead by six months to plot current conditions vs. what the manufacturers expected to happen.

Current Business Conditions vs. Expected Business Conditions (For Now - Made Six Month Ago)

Perpetual Overoptimism

The perpetual overoptimism is impossible to miss. Here are the readings for 2015.

Month/Year	Current Conditions	Expected Conditions
1/2015	7.78	46.10
2/2015	6.90	46.08
3/2015	-1.19	42.39
4/2015	3.09	46.84
5/2015	-1.98	39.31
6/2015	3.86	48.35
7/2015	-14.92	25.58
8/2015	-14.67	30.72
9/2015	-11.36	37.06
10/2015	-10.74	29.81

In 167 months [now 168], nearly 14 years of data, there were only five months (just under 3% of the time) in which current conditions exceeded projections made six months previous!

Month/Year	Current Conditions	Expected Conditions
2/1/2002	13.80	-11.92
6/1/2009	0.28	-3.65
7/1/2009	12.56	-5.55
8/1/2009	20.93	3.53
9/1/2009	33.68	28.27

Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways

For more on overoptimism, please see ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

joi, 17 decembrie 2015

When should a blog be used as a form of content marketing?

When should a blog be used as a form of content marketing?

You've probably heard it all 100,000,000 times before:

When is a blog not always the right form of content marketing?

1. When you have a better way to attract customers to the top of the funnel.

2. You think that thought leadership simply means regurgitating the news