Central Perk

marți, 26 ianuarie 2016

Seth's Blog : "When I want your opinion..."

"When I want your opinion..."

As you get better at your job, people will ask for feedback.

The most powerful feedback is based on data and experience. "Actually, no, we shouldn't put the Crockpots on sale, because every time we run a promo our Crockpot sales have been dwindling, and anyway, the big online store still sells them for less than we do."

These are facts, things we can look up and argue about whether they matter.

It's also interesting to get feedback based on testable hypotheses: "No, I don't think you should call it that, because many of our customers will assume you mean a form of marijuana."

This is only your opinion so far, but without too much trouble, we can dig in and find out if your take on it is widely held.

But often, people will show you something where facts and hypotheses aren't really germane. "Should we paint the door of the building beige or red?" In moments like this, there are three ways to be helpful:

a. You can acknowledge that this is a matter of taste, find out what the boss likes and let her own the decision.

b. You can engage in a dialogue with the boss about what her strategy is when making this decision. Bring facts and data to the table. A thoughtful dialogue with a rational, trusted colleague can open all sorts of doors in decision making.

c. You can acknowledge that your opinion is an opinion, and not try to make it sound like a fact or even a testable hypothesis. "Boss, the logo choice is always a crap shoot, but at first glance, my uninformed opinion is that it's too garish."

All three of these approaches make it far more likely that your fact-based feedback and hypotheses are taken more seriously next time.

[Today's the day that bestselling author Al Pittampalli's book, Persuadable, launches. His new book is a big deal, a research-based, practical guide to help us understand that people who change their minds are actually the most likely to change the world. A must read. Al keeps challenging our perceptions and helping us make a difference with our work.]

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luni, 25 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"Temporary" Capital Controls Coming to China?

Posted: 25 Jan 2016 09:56 PM PST

Massive Reserve Hemorrhage

China hemorrhaged $663 billion of its reserves since June 2014 in a misguided attempt to prop up the yaun. Once the biggest buyer of US treasuries China Starts Dumping U.S. Government Debt.

Note the irony of that headline. Misguided analysts long clung to the belief that the US dollar would go to hell when China started dumping treasuries, "certificates of confiscation" as they were commonly called.

Instead, China has used a significant portion of its reserves to prop up the Yuan. It still has about $3.3 trillion left according to estimates, but China cannot keep the current pace up forever.

"Temporary" Capital Controls the Solution?

The Financial Times reports Capital Controls May be China's Only Real Option.

Chinese officials readily admit that communication has not been their strong point when it comes to dealing with international investors. Policymakers have now made it explicit that they have no wish to engineer a big devaluation. However, they are much less forthcoming about how they plan to reconcile a desire for currency stability with the realities of capital flight and a slowing economy.

Central bank guidance is most effective when the policy is clear and it is relatively straightforward to work out how it will evolve in response to changes in economic data. At present, the reality in China is that the PBoC has no clear course of action and wants to leave itself flexibility.

No amount of clarification would help to varnish the underlying problem: capital flight. The corruption clampdown and a lack of investment opportunities at home are driving Chinese people to take their money out of the country, just as the prospect of higher US interest rates is prompting companies to pay off dollar debt. Fear of a devaluation has fuelled the outflows. Far from seeking a weaker renminbi, the central bank has been forced to spend a big chunk of its reserves to prop it up

This goes against the grain of recent liberalising measures, which last year helped China win the renminbi's inclusion in the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights basket, alongside traditional reserve currencies. However, the IMF has become far more willing to accept the case for temporary capital controls since quantitative easing sparked huge flows of hot money into emerging markets.

Capital controls are not a long-term solution but, at present, they are the correct step for Beijing to take in a very difficult situation. However, they will only work if China uses the breathing space to articulate a clear policy to rebalance its economy and liberalise its currency in the longer term — a process that will take many years.

Yuan's Fall Is Just 'Noise' Amid Deeper China Woes

The Wall Street Journal hits the nail on the head with this headline: Yuan's Fall Is Just 'Noise' Amid Deeper China Woes.

When the financier George Soros attacked the British pound in 1992 and famously "broke the Bank of England" he was trading on a conviction that the currency was misaligned.

Britain devalued after squandering its reserves in a vain defense. Mr. Soros walked off with $1 billion or more. To the surprise of many, though, the U.K. economy soon picked up once the pound found its proper level.

China's raging battles with currency speculators are unlikely to end as happily for the country. That's because turmoil in the currency markets reflects a much more perilous imbalance than an overvalued yuan: China is now lopsidedly dependent on ever larger inputs of local bank credit to keep sputtering growth from declining further.

The country is already littered with "zombie" factories, empty apartment blocks that form ghostly suburbs, mothballed power stations and other infrastructure that nobody needs. But yet more wasteful projects are in the pipeline, even as the government talks about cutting industrial overcapacity.

"That's the misalignment—everything else is noise," says Rodney Jones, the Beijing-based principal of Wigram Capital Advisors, who was a partner at Soros Fund Management during the 1990s.

If debt keeps piling up at the current rate, China faces an eventual financial crisis, perhaps leading to years of subpar growth, mirroring the fate of Japan after its bubble burst in the early 1990s.

Mr. Jones argues that global equity markets haven't property adjusted to this risk, even after a 16% decline in U.S. dollar terms from their May peak. "The world will have to learn to live without demand from China," he says. "It'll come as a shock."

Managing a Crisis of China's Own Doing

As we sit here discussing "temporary" measures that often seem to last decades, we need to step back and ask: What caused this mess?

The answer is a ridiculous growth targets. To hit 7% growth targets for years on end, China had to waste a lot of money on projects, many of which are now worthless.

While the boom lasted, China, like Japan before it, was considered an "economic miracle".

To top it off, China did not float the yuan, but now wants to defend an untenable target.

Unlike the above writers, I suggest China do what it should have done a decade ago: float the yuan and stop micro-managing the economy.

Sure there will be a lot of short term pain. But short term pain is a lot better than three lost decades as Japan is experiencing

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Dallas Fed Region Activity Plunges to Lowest Reading Since 2009; Production Collapsed

Posted: 25 Jan 2016 11:28 AM PST

Those expecting a bounce in manufacturing following an alleged improvement in the Philadelphia Region were mistaken.

In Philadelphia, all that really happened was that things got worse at a decreasing rate.

Dallas Region Collapse

The Dallas Fed General Activity Index plunged to -34.6 from a revised reading last month of -20.1. The Econoday Consensus Estimate was -14.0 in a range of -17.0 to -10.0. The production index, also plunged. Last month the index was in positive territory at 12/7. It's now -10.2.

Manufacturing data from the Dallas Fed, along with that of the Kansas City Fed, have been offering the most striking evidence of oil-related contraction. Dallas' general activity index came in at an extremely negative score of minus 34.6 for the January report which is the lowest reading since the beginning of the recovery in 2009.

New orders are falling deeper into contraction as are unfilled orders. Hours worked are now in the negative column as is employment. And finally falling into contraction -- and in a big way -- is the production index which had through last year, despite long weakness in orders, held in positive ground, but not anymore with the reading at minus 10.2 for a nearly 23 point monthly plunge. Price data in this report remain well into the minus column, at nearly double-digit monthly declines.

Manufacturing reports this month have been mixed, with this and Empire State pointing to another buckling but not the most closely followed report, the Philly Fed which is pointing to stability for the sector. Watch for the Richmond Fed report tomorrow and the Kansas City report on Thursday.

Production vs. Activity

Price of oil and gas is so low, production is a money-losing effort. This month we finally see the production spigots have been turned to low throttle. It's a needed step for oil prices to bottom.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

Celebrities Who Won An Oscar With Less Than 20 Minutes Of Screen Time

Posted: 25 Jan 2016 06:36 PM PST

These celebrities proved that it's not the length of the time you're on the screen that counts, it's what you do with it.

Anthony Hopkins, 'The Silence of the Lambs' (1991)
Screen time: 16 minutes
Although the final time count is debated (some say it's only 12 minutes), Hopkins' portrayal of Dr. Hannibal Lecter was a short one. This didn't stop the Academy from awarding him Best Actor in 1992.

Gloria Grahame, 'The Bad and the Beautiful' (1952)
Screen time: 9 minutes, 52 seconds
Less than 10 minutes landed Grahame the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for her performance as Rosemary. She held the record for winning an Oscar for the shortest-timed role for 25 years.

Anne Hathaway, 'Les Miserables' (2012)
Screen time: 15 minutes
Maybe it was the fact that she cut off all her hair and lost 25 pounds to play the unlucky Fantine, but Hathaway nabbed the statue for Best Supporting Actress despite only being in 15 minutes of a 158-minute movie.

Anthony Quinn, 'Lust for Life' (1956)
Screen time: 8 minutes
Quinn's character Paul Gaugin stole the screen and won him the 1957 Best Supporting Actor award.

Ned Beatty, 'Network' (1976)
Screen time: 5 minutes, 53 seconds
He only had one scene as corporate chairman Arthur Jensen, but apparently that was plenty of time to warrant an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actor. When defending his opinion that no actor should ever turn down a role, he jokingly said, "I worked a day on 'Network' and got an Oscar nomination for it."

Judi Dench, 'Shakespeare in Love' (1998)
Screen time: 8 minutes
Dench won Best Supporting Actress for her role as Queen Elizabeth, and when accepting the Oscar she joked, "I feel for eight minutes on the screen, I should only get a little bit of him."

Ingrid Bergman, 'Murder on the Orient Express' (1974)
Screen time: 14 minutes, 18 seconds
Bergman won the only Oscar (Best Supporting Actress) out of 6 nominations for the movie in 1975. Out of her 14 minutes onscreen, 5 of them were in one interrogation scene that was shot in one take.

Viola Davis, 'Doubt' (2008)
Screen time: 8 minutes
Accounts differ on the actual time Davis played a mother whose son may have been molested onscreen, but she still competed against her co-star Amy Adams for Best Supporting Actress in 2009. The award ended up going to Penelope Cruz for 'Vicky Christina Barcelona.'

Ruby Dee, 'American Gangster' (2007)
Screen time: 10 minutes
Dee's 70 year career was rewarded in 2008 with her first and only Oscar nomination for her brief role as Denzel Washington's mother in the Ridley Scott crime epic.

David Niven, 'Separate Tables' (1958)
Screen time: 15 minutes, 38 seconds
Niven scored his first and only Oscar for Best Actor when he played Major Pollock, a war vet whose hidden past is revealed in a seaside hotel during off-season.

Beatrice Straight, 'Network' (1976)
Screen time: 5 minutes, 40 seconds
Onscreen for an even shorter time than her co-actor Beatty, Straight stole the record from Gloria Grahame and won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for her performance as Louise Schumacher, the jilted wife of William Holden's character in the movie.

Hermione Baddeley 'Room at the Top'' (1959)
Screen time: 2 minutes, 20 seconds
Had she won, Baddeley would have knocked both Straight and Grahame out of the water with her record. However, she was just nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 1960 with a little over 2 minutes of screen time.