Central Perk

sâmbătă, 18 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Posted: 18 Sep 2010 04:17 PM PDT

Here is an email from Robert who is wondering about the Fed's ability to inflate, and the consequences if they try. Robert writes ...

Hello Mish,

Something is bothering me.

I thought there would be inflation after the US government and FED's actions, but there has been no inflation. I was wrong and you were right. I understand why and I also agree with the concepts of "peak credit" and "peak consumption," as far as the West goes at least.

But this seems to mean that the government can sell vast quantities (1 -2 trillion per year) of debt directly to the FED and to other parties with few observable short or intermediate term consequences.

If everyone agrees that the economies of the West will be weak for many years (for a host of reasons) and everyone also agrees that the dollar will be the reserve currency for years to come then:

1) What is the problem with running 1.5 trillion dollar deficits per year as far out as the eye can see? ( I am not being facetious.)

2) What is the problem with using federal-government borrowed money to bail out state and local governments to keep them from near implosion and the likely associated social problems?

If I am missing something, what is it?

Robert

Fed's Primary Mission Failed

Hello Robert

First off, congratulations for understanding the Fed's attempt at producing inflation has failed. Many do not see it that way, but it depends on the definition of inflation, and an understanding of what the Fed is really attempting to do.

The Fed's primary goal is not to get prices to rise (regardless of what they say), but rather to get banks lending, consumers spending, and businesses hiring. The Fed and Congress have failed on all three scores.

One Sided Policies

The Fed did not produce inflation, but there is a huge price to pay to pay for the Fed's One sided policies.

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
When the rich make a mistake they get bailed out.
When the poor make a mistake they get tossed to the dogs.

One needs to look at things not just from the recent "stabilization" of banks, but as an ongoing affair that has killed the middle class. Inflation was running rampant (in terms of credit in general and mortgage lending in particular). Wages did not keep up with prices and people plowed into assets as a means of savings.

The bailouts did not produce inflation, but the middle class bailed out the banks and got nothing in return but higher taxes, fewer services, and looking ahead, years of stagnation.

Moreover, the bondholders (such as China, Japan, and PIMCO) were made whole, while the homeowners are still mired in debt. Adding to the misery, banks lord it over on homeowners with total nonsense about the morality of walking away.

We will all suffer the consequences of these one sided moral-hazard policies for a decade to come. Quantitative easing, bailouts, extend-and-pretend schemes, and the alphabet soup of lending facilities all have very real consequences.

Near-term or intermediate-term (a few years out) inflation are not likely in the mix, but the distortions caused by the Fed and Congress will still affect us for a decade to come. Those distortions (caused by one-sided policies that favor banks and the wealthy) have killed and will continue to kill the middle class.

Robert, that is what you sensed, even if you could not put your finger on it.

Those who missed it should read Myths About "What's Economically Important" for a discussion about how and why credit, not prices is the key to the mess we are in.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Fort Worth, Texas Insolvent

Posted: 18 Sep 2010 02:24 AM PDT

The Star-Telegram reports Fort Worth pension bubble will blow up in our faces.

To understand why Fort Worth's pension system is such a financial disaster, look at one month's list of recent retirements.

In January, a 53-year-old policeman retired with an annual benefit of $90,312 for life, plus $256,000 in a lump sum payment. Another policeman, 57, got almost $74,000 annually, plus $313,000 in a lump sum. A 54-year-old firefighter got an annual pension of $90,130, plus $178,000 in cash.

With an average age of 50 for the police and 54 for the firemen in this group, they're likely to spend more years in retirement than they worked. An analysis for the City Council, presented in July, projected that the retiring policemen would collect $3.1 million in pension pay.

You don't have to be an actuary to know that this pension plan will end badly. The technical phrase is "trending toward insolvency."

Except that the city is on the hook for all the promised benefits. Taxpayers will have to pony up hefty contributions for years, even generations, and the city may have to cut services to afford it. The pension for city employees is currently projected to pay out $432 million more than it brings in over the next 30 years.

And that's the optimistic scenario. If investment returns average 7 percent, rather than the dreamy 8.5 percent in the assumptions, the unfunded liability could approach $1 billion.

The pension will require $60 million in city funds next year, and it's already a drag on a strapped city budget that has to close swimming pools and libraries and impose furloughs. Every year, the pension hole grows, because the benefits keep piling up.

"This is the elephant in the room," Mayor Mike Moncrief told the council in late July. "Not only for this budget, but for all the budgets to come."

The city manager appointed an ad hoc committee to look at the pension problem. It had a few businessmen, but most were employees -- a mix of police, fire and general workers. Imagine they had a little conflict?

They recommended that the city contribute an additional 6 percent of employee pay into the plan.

This is what it always comes down to: corrupt politicians pandering to public unions to win votes for reelection. Moreover, the result is always the same, greedy public unions wanting to raise taxes to pay for their exorbitant wages and benefits.

Fort Worth is now bankrupt. The only solution is to fire the city manager, declare bankruptcy, and resolve the issue of benefits in court.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Daily Snapshot: The Republican Corporate Power Grab

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, September 18, 2010

Your Weekly Address: The Republican Corporate Power Grab

The President explains how the most dire warnings about the Citizens United case have been proven valid as Republicans in Congress have blocked legislation to fix it. Watch the video.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time

8:40 PM: The President and the First Lady attend the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation Inc.’s Annual Legislative Conference Phoenix Awards Dinner. The President delivers remarks (audio only)

Indicates Events that will be livestreamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

Seth's Blog : The power of buttons and being normal

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

The power of buttons and being normal

Taxi drivers in New York were worried about adding credit cards to their cabs. The fee (5% of so) would cost them too much, they said.

It turns out that tips are up, way up. They're actually making far more money now.

Why? Because most of the machines offer a shortcut for the tip: $2, $3 or $4.

You can decide to be a cheapskate and hit the $2 button. Except...

Except that if you had paid cash, you probably would have tipped 75 cents for that $4.25 ride. It takes a few more clicks to type in 75 cents, and hey, $2 is the lowest and it's a more 'normal' amount.

It's a three second decision that happens over and over. People really like cues.

• Email to a friend •

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vineri, 17 septembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

US Economy Hits Brick Wall

Posted: 17 Sep 2010 01:12 PM PDT

The latest Gallup Survey shows U.S. Unemployment at Highest Level Since May

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.4% in mid-September from 9.3% in August and 8.9% at the end of July. This finding makes it far more unlikely that there will be a significant decline in the U.S. unemployment rate prior to the midterm elections.

Unemployment Rate - Not Seasonally Adjusted

Underemployment thus remains unchanged at 18.6% so far in September compared with late August, though up from 18.4% at the end of July. Underemployment peaked at 20.4% in April and has yet to fall below 18.3% this year.

Underemployment - Not Seasonally Adjusted

Gallup classifies American workers as underemployed if they are either unemployed or working part time but wanting full-time work. The findings reflect more than 18,000 phone interviews with U.S. adults aged 18 and older in the workforce, collected over a 30-day period. Gallup's results are not seasonally adjusted and tend to be a precursor of government reports by approximately two weeks.

As might be expected given declining consumer confidence and continuing negative news about the job market nationally, the percentage of underemployed Americans who are "hopeful" that they will be able to find a job in the next four weeks fell to 43% in mid-September from its 2010 high of 47% at the end of August.

No Unemployment Rate "Hail Mary" Likely

With only three weeks left until the government's final unemployment report before the midterm elections, Gallup's underemployment measure suggests that an immediate, measurable improvement in the nation's job situation is unlikely. Further, Gallup modeling of the unemployment rate component implies that the government will report little to no change in the nation's 9.6% unemployment rate in September, or possibly even a slight increase to 9.7%.

Overall, Gallup's behavioral economic data suggest that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was right when he noted early this summer that the U.S. economy seemed to hit a wall in June. Economic confidence and consumer spending have declined since the end of May. At the same time, unemployment and underemployment have stagnated at very high levels.

The discrepancy between the Gallup survey and the BLS survey can partially be explained by the fact Gallup does not seasonally adjust numbers but the BLS does. Moreover, the BLS discards "marginally attached workers" (those who want a job but did not look in the last month), but Gallup does not.

Please see article for additional charts.

Because employment has hit a brick wall, as expected, I also expect to see a slaughter in November with Republicans picking up 45 seats or so in the House, enough to take the podium away from Nancy Pelosi. Thank God!

Bear in mind, I am not a Republican. Rather I am a Libertarian backing candidates who closely align with those philosophies. I wrote in Ron Paul in the last presidential election.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Myths About "What's Economically Important"

Posted: 17 Sep 2010 10:23 AM PDT

Day in and day out I hear it from readers who insist that we are not in deflation and will not be in deflation because prices are rising and continue to rise.

Still others tell me it is illogical for a deflationist to like gold.

When I counter with a discussion about credit conditions I tend to get a blank stare or a comment like "I do not care about credit conditions. I own my home. What I care about are rising prices of food and energy."

When I counter with falling asset prices and zero percent interest rates on savings accounts I am likely to get as statement like "Who cares, I rent?", or perhaps "The poor have no assets or savings, all they care about is food prices."

Really?

Such comments come from those who are not thinking clearly about what's important. Here's why:

In a fiat credit-based financial system, when credit is plunging businesses are not hiring. There are currently 14.9 million unemployed who want a job but do not have a job because businesses are not hiring. There are 2.4 million "marginally attached" persons who do not have a job yet want a job, but are not considered unemployed because they stopped looking. There are 8.9 million part-time workers who want a full time job but cannot get one because businesses are not hiring. There are countless millions of college graduates who are underemployed, working at WalMart, delivering pizzas, or attempting to sell trinkets on eBay, because businesses are not hiring. There a still millions more in college hoping for a job upon graduation who will not get one because businesses are not hiring. This is all related to the ongoing credit contraction.

When credit is plunging so do yields on treasuries and in turn yields on savings accounts. Those on fixed incomes attempting to live off interest income are screwed. Indeed, many are rapidly draining their principal because they collect no interest.

Those who have a job, pay for those who don't. Food stamp usage is soaring and now costs over $60 billion dollars a year.

When credit is plunging, consumers are not shopping, business earnings are under pressure, and wages stagnate or in many cases outright decline. Even those with jobs and no debt have been affected by deteriorating credit conditions. Public employees had escaped this debacle so far, but that is about to change in a big way, with huge implications.

When business earnings are under pressure or when business owners face uncertainty over consumer spending trends, businesses cut back on benefits, especially health care. Those with health cares benefits are asked to chip in more of the costs. This too is a function of deflation.

When profits are weak and business uncertainty high, stock prices do not act well (at least in the long run). Those with 401Ks or personal investments are affected.

With credit falling and wages stagnant or falling, anyone in debt is likely to have a harder time paying back that debt. Foreclosures rise so do bankruptcies and divorces. Entire families have gone homeless.

So, What's Really More Important?

Expanding credit (inflation) created an enormous housing bubble, a commercial real estate boom, a rising stock market, and an enormous number of jobs.

Contracting credit (deflation), burst the housing bubble, burst the commercial real estate bubble, burst the stock market bubble, resulting in millions of foreclosures and bankruptcies, millions of broken homes, millions on food stamps, 26.2 million unemployed or partially employed, and countless additional millions who are underemployed.

People notice food and energy prices because they tend to be somewhat sticky. Everyone has to eat, heat their homes, and take some form of transportation at times, but is that what's important?

No!

In the grand scheme of things, nominal increases in food and energy prices are but a few grains of salt in the world's largest salt-shaker compared to the massive effects of rising or falling credit conditions.

Yet, every day, someone writes to me complaining about the price of milk (or something else) going up 30 cents or whatever telling me that is "inflation" or that is what is most important.

Inflation/Deflation Definitions Once Again

Inflation is a net expansion of money and credit, with credit marked to market.
Deflation is a net contraction of money and credit, with credit marked to market.

Those are my definitions. I cannot force anyone to accept those definitions but they do explain what is happening quite nicely.

Conclusion

Those who think prices are what matters, even those who have no debt and no assets, are simply missing the boat about the importance of credit expansion and credit contraction in fiat credit-based financial system. As shown above, a credit contraction affects everyone, in many ways, and in far more important ways than simple price changes.

The stimulus and bailouts helped the financial economy (for a while), but not the real economy. Because credit dwarfs money supply, trillions of dollars of so-called stimulus vanished into thin air, with no lasting impact on the jobs market.

The inflationists and hperinflationists who ignored credit and focused on money supply alone (or consumer prices) never saw the plunge in interest rates coming or the massive pounding in global equity markets.

Those who knew a credit implosion was coming, got treasury yields correct, the equity crash correct, the rise in the dollar correct, and the strength in gold correct.

Gold does well in times of economic stress, especially in the senior currency - in this case the US dollar. It is the only commodity whose long term trendline is intact from 2000. Gold is money and as money it should do well in deflation in the country of the senior currency. It did.

In credit-based system, especially where credit dwarf money supply, credit itself (and the value of credit marked-to-market on the balance sheets of banks) is of paramount importance.

Those who insist inflation is about prices, as well as those who view inflation as an increase in money supply alone (ignoring credit), are going to continue to get the economic picture wrong.

If you are focused on prices or money supply alone, you are focused on the wrong thing.

In a fiat credit-based economy, where credit dwarfs money supply, changes in credit is what's important, not changes in money supply, not nominal changes in prices.

It's as simple as that.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

A Champion for American Consumers and Families

Economy and Jobs Agenda
Friday, September 17, 2010

The Week In Economy and Jobs

Today, President Obama announces that he has selected Elizabeth Warren to serve as an Assistant to the President and Special Advisor to the Secretary of the Treasury on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). In a blog post this morning Warren explains the importance of this new agency:

President Obama understands the importance of leveling the playing field again for families and creating protections that work not just for the wealthy or connected, but for every American. The new consumer bureau is based on a pretty simple idea: people ought to be able to read their credit card and mortgage contracts and know the deal.

Elizabeth Warren has been a champion for American consumers and families and was the architect of the idea that became the CFPB. This new agency will set and enforce clear, consistent rules for the financial marketplace to protect consumers from confusing mortgages, unfair credit card rate hikes, and expensive overdraft programs.

To learn more about the consumer protections in the Wall Street reform legislation, check out this video:

Highlights

The President Appoints Elizabeth Warren to Lead a "Watchdog for the American Consumer"
September 17, 2010
The President continues his fight for the middle class.

Fighting to Protect Consumers
September 17, 2010
Elizabeth Warren on the ideas behind the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The Lift: Recovery Act Moderates 2009 Poverty Results
September 16, 2010
Jared Bernstein explains that for all the bad news in America's poverty rate, the Recovery Act helped a lot of Americans stay above water.

Moving Clean Energy Innovations Out of the Lab and into the Market
September 16, 2010
The Department of Energy announces new steps toward strengthening the commercialization successes of our nation’s research universities through a variety of partnerships.

President Obama on Small Business Jobs & Tax Cuts: "We Don't Have Time for Any More Games"
September 15, 2010
Having just emerged from a Cabinet meeting focused on getting every agency doing all they can to help America create jobs, the President zeroed in on two major fights for the middle class.

Republican Tax Plan Doubles Nation's Deficit in Just Ten Years
September 15, 2010
Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer puts the Congressional Republicans’ plan to explode the deficit with virtually no benefit to the economy.

New Plans Underway to Increase Contracts to Small Business
September 15, 2010
A look at the new recommendations, and new resources, on the government's small business contracting.

Encouraging Business Investment
September 14, 2010
Valerie Jarrett, Senior Advisor to the President, explains the President's agenda to promote economic recovery by helping businesses invest.

President Obama in a Fairfax Backyard
September 13, 2010
John Nicholas and Nicole Armstrong graciously host the President for a discussion on the economy at their home in Fairfax, Virginia with some of their neighbors.

Another Government Shutdown?
September 10, 2010
Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer discusses the latest agenda item from House Republicans.

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Michael Gray - Graywolf's SEO Blog

Integrated Versus Interruptive Advertising

Posted: 16 Sep 2010 08:38 AM PDT

When I was first starting in Internet marketing, one of the first books I read was Permissive Marketing by Seth Godin. The point of this book was that customers who give you permission to market to them are more valuable than those you have to interrupt, and you shouldn’t abuse that trust. One of the second lessons came from adsense, which showed how ads that were integrated into the copy always performed better than those placed outside of the copy.

While this is something I integrate into my projects, there are a lot of media companies that don’t. For example, here is a screen shot of the New York Times on the iPad. Notice the banner placed in the bottom of the page outside of the text.

What happens with the app: during your second story, an interstitial ad appears (which was never clicked on), getting in the way of reading the desired story. This, I’m sure, results in a low engagement. Last week, they made a change. Although the banner is still at the bottom and you still get the interstitial, they added a new format embedded in the text … And, even though I wasn’t the target market, I clicked the ad …

Interestingly, the ad directs you to an in app landing page with options…

…followed by a browser landing page where you could make a purchase.

So what is the takeaway from this?

Use a service like Crazyegg (disclosure: they are an advertiser) or Google multi variant testing to experiment with ad placement.
Try placements inside of the content at the top, middle, or bottom.
Stay away from advertising that interrupts or blocks users from getting to the content they really want.

This post originally came from Michael Gray who is an SEO Consultant. Be sure not to miss the Thesis WordPress Theme review.

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