Central Perk

joi, 23 decembrie 2010

Repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, Dec. 23, 2010

Photo of the Day

People in the audience listen as President Barack Obama speaks before signing the Don't Ask, Don't Tell Repeal Act of 2010 during a ceremony at the Interior Department in Washington, D.C. December 22, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza).

Seth's Blog : Three ways TV changed everything (and what's next)

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Three ways TV changed everything (and what's next)

TV changes everyone it touches.

TV brings mass. For fifty years, TV meant that programmers and advertisers had a very good chance to reach everyone, or almost everyone, at the same time. TV integrates a culture, because there's instant common touchstones being generated daily. (When I say, "yadda yadda yadda" or "where's the beef," you know what I mean, right?)

TV brings pluralism and diversity. This seems to contradict the first, but it doesn't. Once TV has opened a channel to the brain, it can bring in whatever it chooses, without clearing it with you first. So, the viewer can discover that people-who-don't-look-like-us aren't so different, or that women might be good cops, or that a member of the [insert oppressed group] might also be a person too.

and finally, TV brings dissatisfaction. Advertising needs to make you dissatisfied to work. And picture perfect sitcom families have more money and less trouble than most folks (because they're not real).

Now, of course, TV isn't what it used to be. No more three-channel universe. That means that the cable/internet virus changes everyone in a very different way. Call it the million channel world (mcw).

The mcw brings addressability. There is no mass any more. You can't reach everyone. Mad Men is a hit and yet it has only been seen by 2% of the people in the USA.

The mcw bring silos, angry tribes and insularity. Fox News makes a fortune by pitting people against one another. Talkingpointsmemo is custom tailored for people who are sure that the other side is wrong. You can spend your entire day consuming media and never encounter a thought you don't agree with, don't like or don't want to see.

And finally, I have no idea if the mcw is making us happy. Surely, a substantial use is time wasting social network polishing, and that's not really building anyone's long-term happiness. And the mcw makes it easier to get angry, to waste time (there's never 'nothing on') or become isolated. Without a doubt, the short-term impact of mcw is that it makes it easy to spread terror and harder to settle on the truth. At the same time, there's no doubt that more people are connected to more people, belong to more tribes, have more friends, and engage more often than they did before it got here. We got rid of some gatekeepers, but there's a race for some new ones. In the meantime, a lot of smart people are fending for themselves, which isn't so bad.

One thing we learned from the TV age that's still true: more media is not always better, particularly when we abdicate our power to filter and choose.

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miercuri, 22 decembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Miami-Dade Mayor Faces Recall Over Tax Hikes; Recalls Pending in Chattanooga and Omaha

Posted: 22 Dec 2010 08:35 PM PST

Finally! Taxpayers in Miami-Dade have had enough. A petition to recall Mayor Carlos Alvarez has gathered double the number of signatures required.

I wholeheartedly endorse this move by taxpayers and encourage other such efforts in every city where the law allows recall efforts.

Please consider Florida: Miami Mayor Faces Recall

Mayor Carlos Alvarez of Miami-Dade County faces a recall after opponents gathered enough signatures to force an election. The drive came after the county raised the property-tax rate to balance its budget. The county commission must call an election in 45 to 90 days, Harvey Ruvin, clerk of courts, said Tuesday. Recalls are also being sought in Chattanooga, Tenn., and Omaha after proposed tax increases.

Please check out the Recall Mayor Alvarez initiative.

Under Mayor Alvarez's watch, Miami-Dade's unemployment rate rose to 14.4 percent – almost 5 percent higher than the national average. At the same time, the Mayor's proposed budget calls for "hiking property tax rates 14 percent." Voters need to regain control. Mayor Alvarez needs to be RECALLED!

Mayor Alvarez May Challenge Recall Effort

Inquiring minds note Mayor Alvarez May Challenge Recall Effort

The math for Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez is stark. A recall effort aimed at him has certified nearly twice the number of voter petition signatures needed to force a countywide recall election by next spring. Alvarez said Wednesday, "I believe the voters have a right to vote on this issue. However I will not give up my right to challenge something that is wrong."

He says his legal team has found discrepancies with notary stamps and signatures but concedes it is not likely enough to derail a recall election. At the heart of that effort, organized by auto tycoon Norman Braman, is anger over the property tax rate hike recommended by Alvarez, and approved by county commissioners three months ago.

Alvarez defended his position. He said Wednesday, "I have preserved the fire department, number one, the police department, number two, the parks department and social services. If people are upset because some of them got tax notices and their taxes went up slightly so be it. But at the end of the day I have to live with myself."

Stop The Tax Increase

Miami is bankrupt and Florida is ground zero for the property bubble bust. But that does not stop Mayor Carlos Alvarez from sucking every last drop of blood from taxpayers. As I have pointed out on numerous occasions, not a single police of fire department job need be lost. All it takes is concessions from unions, not tax hikes to support those who get wages and benefits the average private sector worker can only dream of.

I heard of this success a few moments ago from reader "RM" who writes ...

Dear Mish,

I really enjoyed your Ten Themes for 2011. Good thought provoking stuff.

On Monday it was announced that billionaire Braman got enough signatures to have a special recall election to vote out Miami-Dade (County) Mayor Carlos Alvarez, who is more responsible than Miami (City) Mayor Regalado for the public union raises and tax hikes (inc. property tax hikes that hurt me). I am sure that your article(s) awhile back helped spark this little voter reaction here.

Best,

RM

Indeed I have blasted corruption and fraud in Miami and backed this recall effort. However, 100% of the credit for this recall campaign goes to the citizens of Miami-Dade led by Norman Braman, for this worthwhile effort.

I have no doubt the police, fire departments, and probably the teachers' unions as well will come out with massive fearmongering campaigns against the recall. Please do what you can to help.

The recall effort was a preliminary success but far more work needs to be done. Please Join the Recall Mayor Alvarez Campaign . I suggest a pledge of time, money, printing, or advertising.

Let's turn this first-round victory into a final knockout!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Ten Economic and Investment Themes for 2011

Posted: 22 Dec 2010 10:06 AM PST

1. US Municipal Bankruptcies Head to Center Stage

Look for Detroit and at least one other city in Michigan to go bankrupt. Also look for increasing discussions regarding bankruptcy from Los Angeles, Miami, Oakland, Houston, and San Diego. Those cities are definitely bankrupt, they just have not admitted it yet. The first major city to go bankrupt will cause a huge stir in the municipal bond market. Best to avoid Munis completely.

2. Sovereign Debt Crisis Hits Europe

The ECB and EU are hoping things return to normal and they can deal with things more calmly in 2013. The markets will not wait. Expect a new Parliament in Ireland to want to renegotiate whatever horrendous deal Prime Minister Brian Cowen agrees to. Portugal and Spain will need bailouts. The surprise play in Europe will be Italy, a country not on anyone's front burner. Italy will come under intense credit market pressure, and when it does the whole Eurozone comes unglued. Europe's banks are insolvent and ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet will have a choice, haircuts or massive printing.

3. Cutbacks in US Cities and States

With Republican governors holding a majority of governorships, with Republicans holding a majority in the House, and with a far more conservative Senate, there is going to be little enthusiasm for increasing aid to states. There will be some aid to states of course, but nowhere near as much as needed to prevent cutbacks. Expect to see a huge number of layoffs and/or cutbacks in services. Cutbacks in cities and states will be a good thing, but that will counteract other gains in employment. The unemployment rate will stay stubbornly high.

4. Public Unions Under Intense Attack

Public unions will face increasing hostility, not only in the US but also the Eurozone and UK. Look for Congress to consider legislation to kill collective bargaining. If it passes, the president would veto it. The problem however will not go away. Cities and states in distress will increasingly outsource every contract they can.

5. China Overheats, Multiple Rate Hikes Coming

China, everyone's favorite promised land, has a hard landing. China will grow at perhaps 5-6% but that is nowhere near as much as China wants, or the world expects. Tightening in China will crack its property bubble and more importantly pressure commodities. The longer China holds off in tightening, the harder the landing.

6. Property Bubble Bursts Wide Open in Australia and Canada

Australia, having largely avoided the global recession runs out of luck this time around. Look for the Australian economy to fall into outright recession. Look for Canada to slow dramatically as its property bubble pops. The US property bubble is much further progressed, by years, than Australia, Canada, and China. This matters immensely.

7. US Avoids Double Dip

The tax cut extensions and the payroll tax decrease will keep the US out of recession. However, growth estimates are still too high. The tax cut extensions do nothing more than maintain the status quo while the payroll tax deduction is just for a year. Most will use it to pay down bills. Look for GDP at 2.0-2.5%. That is the stall rate.

8. Year That Something Matters

For the global equity markets, this will be the year that something matters. Certainly nothing mattered in 2010, and optimism for equities is at extreme levels. I have no targets other than a suggestion this is an extremely poor time to invest in darn near anything.

9. Decoupling in Reverse

I do not think any countries decouple in 2011, including China. However, on a relative basis, the US could. Europe is a basket case, China is overheating, Australia is headed for recession, the UK is going nowhere, and 2.0-2.5% growth in the US just might look damn good compared to anything else. Bear in mind far more than 2.0-2.5% US growth is priced in, but on a relative basis that is likely to smash the performance of the Eurozone, Australia, and Canada. China may grow 5.0-6.0% but with 10% priced in, overweight China, the emerging markets and the commodity producing countries is a serious mistake. Actually, equities are a mistake in general and so are commodities. Finally, falling commodity prices would be US dollar supportive and supportive of a decreasing US trade deficit as well, especially if grain prices stay high while oil sinks. Should grains stay firm while other commodities sink, it would help boost US GDP.

10. US Dollar to Strengthen

Look for the US dollar to strengthen because of the net effect of all the above issues.

Relative Performance Examples

On a relative but not absolute basis I like the US. On a currency adjusted basis I especially like Japan. Here is a hypothetical example: Should foreign equities drop 20% and the US dollar strengthen 10% the loss to US investors would be 30%. Should Foreign investors buy US equities and face a loss of 20% and a 10% rise in the dollar, they would see a 10% loss. US investors of course would see the full 20% loss. Japan looks attractive in nominal terms but strengthening of the dollar compared to the Yen could negate some if not all of that. Equities in general, with the possible exception of Japan do not look attractive.

Miscellaneous Issues

The order in which the above themes play out could be important. If a muni crisis hits the US before a sovereign crisis in the Eurozone and a slowdown in China, the dollar may not initially perform as expected. Similarly, if the US strengthens more than expected in the first quarter while Europe and China stagnate, another leg down in treasuries may be in store with the US dollar quickly blasting higher.

I have no firm conviction for gold, silver, or US treasuries other than gold is likely to hold its own and then some should the ECB decide to print its way out of this mess.

US treasuries are now in no-man's-land dependent on the order of things and the reactions of foreign central banks as the crisis plays out. Seasonally, treasuries are generally weak until June (think tax purposes). However, there are so many factors now, including Fed purchases, it is hard to estimate.

2010 was a lull in the global economic crisis. Don't expect 2011 to be the same. Something, indeed many things, are likely to matter in 2011.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

Local SEO Experiment - Google's Change Location

Posted: 21 Dec 2010 10:00 AM PST

Posted by Dr. Pete

Special thanks to Joanna Lord, Michael Cottam, and Lindsay Wassell for helping me collect data. Also, thanks to Danny Dover for explaining to me how all my initial ideas were wrong ;)

Back in October, Google added the ability to easily change the location from where you search. It's located just under the search verticals – click on "Change Location," and you'll see something like the screen below (lower-left):

Screenshot of Change Location

Obviously, this is of tremendous value to anyone doing local SEO, but given Google’s uneven support for opting out of personalization, I had to wonder whether the location feature was really accurate. If I set my location to another city, would I really see what my clients and prospects were seeing?

Obligatory Disclaimers

What I'm about to describe isn't the most scientific experiment; it's just an initial exploration of whether Google's "Change Location" feature matched up across different cities for different users. Your results may vary. If your experiences differ, we'd love to hear your comments.

The Basic Experiment

I grabbed 3 of the finest minds in SEO (or, at least, that's what I told them so they'd volunteer) from 3 US cities other than mine (we kept this domestic to avoid any complications from ccTLDs). I’m in Chicago, Joanna is at Moz HQ in Seattle, Michael is in Portland, and Lindsay is in Tampa.

For each city, we picked a one-word query that had a distinct local flavor (suggested by the respective localite). We kept it to the realm of food and drink, because who doesn’t like to eat and drink? The final queries were:

Chicago - "pizza"
Seattle - "coffee"
Portland - "pubs"
Tampa - "seafood"

Each of us started with our own city, ran the query, and recorded two things: (1) where the local search results began, and (2) the URLs for the local search results. If there were 3 organic results prior to the first local result, they started at position 4, for example. The new, integrated results are a bit tricky, but we counted any results with a letter (A)-(G) as a local result, whether it was specifically a "Places" result or not. We repeated the process for each of the 4 cities/queries.

Prior to running searches, we each logged out of our Google accounts. We tested adding the &pws=0 parameter to remove personalization, but there was no case where this had any impact on our results. City order was rotated across the 4 participants.

The Basic Results

I was all set to develop some really complicated math to determine how 2 sets of queries matched each other, but the real results ended up being so black-and-white, that I've just created a grid of how the 4 participants' results matched up. If I had Site X in position (D) and someone else did, too, that's a match, plain and simple:

Local Results Table

The table shows how each person’s results match up to the local user's results (represented by the city name). The diagonal (grayed-out) is always a 100% match, since that person is the local user. For these searches (being fairly popular), all local results were 7-packs. Chicago, Portland, and Tampa local results started after 3 organic listings (position #4). Seattle local listings started in the #1 position (more on that below).

The short takeaway - Florida is trouble. Our results matched completely, except for Tampa, where each of our results were completely different from Lindsay's (although our 3 sets of non-local Tampa results all matched). Digging deeper, it turns out that Lindsay is out in the burbs a bit, and her results tended to be more local to her area. The rest of us are located closer to the city centers.

Local SEO Implications

If you're a city dweller, the results were fairly promising. It seems that Google is taking the location setting at face value and not adding much personalization into the mix. Even though we had logged out, anecdotal evidence suggested that logged in results were similar. The good news is that the "Change Location" feature should be a useful tool for SEOs who do a lot of local work with clients in other cities. Of course, it never hurts to sanity-check your results in any given situation.

One Last Oddity

The latest Google SERPs seem to be integrating organic and local results in some cases, and I suspect that a domain's overall authority could be impacting the placement of their local result. In our mini-experiment, the Seattle/"coffee" results exhibited an odd behavior, as shown in the screenshot below:

Starbucks Search Result

The Starbucks "local" listing appears in the #1 spot, even though the second local listing isn't until #4. This seems to be a factor of Starbucks’ overall authority. If I change my location back to Chicago, Starbucks is still #1, but I see a local Starbucks address.

It's clear that a lot is changing in local search, and I think we can expect to see more integration of the overall organic and local algorithms (while local retains some unique factors, like citations and reviews). Whatever happens, though, the new "Change Location" tool seems to be a real window into the local algorithm and should be a welcome addition for local SEOs.

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SEO Blog

Local Business Social Marketing Tools – Bottom Up Marketing

Posted: 22 Dec 2010 01:16 AM PST

FREE ‘Feeling Social’ In-Store Handout Template Local Business Social Marketing Tools – Bottom Up Marketing Looking for something to attract and retain your best customers from a retail location to the Internet and from the Internet to your retail location Request our free Photoshop template ‘Feeling Social’. Put in on your counter-top at your location [...]

White House White Board: Health Reform and Rate Review

Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, Dec. 22, 2010

White House White Board: Health Reform and Rate Review

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius takes to the White House White Board to explain a new regulation that fleshes out the "rate review" provision from the Affordable Care Act to protect consumers from unreasonable rate increases.

Watch the video.

joi, 23 decembrie 2010

Repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Seth's Blog : Three ways TV changed everything (and what's next)

Three ways TV changed everything (and what's next)

More Recent Articles

miercuri, 22 decembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

Obligatory Disclaimers

The Basic Experiment

The Basic Results

Local SEO Implications

One Last Oddity

SEO Blog

SEO Blog

White House White Board: Health Reform and Rate Review

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

joi, 23 decembrie 2010

More Recent Articles

miercuri, 22 decembrie 2010

Obligatory Disclaimers

The Basic Experiment

The Basic Results

Local SEO Implications

One Last Oddity

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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