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Paul Graham, as usual, is thought provoking.
There's no question that programmers, designers, writers and others that do their best work in a moment of flow do themselves and their organizations a disservice when they are ruled by the clock and spend a lot of it in meetings.
Paul's argument is that makers should be insulated from this sort of wasteful nonsense.
The essay is one of his best ever, but I think he needs to add a key point...
Managers need to act more like makers, because making is more important than ever before. Even the most Outlook-driven manager can benefit from finding the isolation to do truly challenging work.
Makers need to be disciplined enough to interact like managers, else they will become pawns in a system they don't sufficiently influence. If you're not present when decisions are getting made, my guess is that you won't like what gets decided...
Neither side gets to insist on just one way. Both need to do more of the other's work. Not because it's easy or even fun, but because it's still the best way to bring your vision to the world.
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Very often, we're challenged to make decisions with too little information. Sometimes, there's no information--merely noise. The question is: how will you decide?
Consider the challenge we faced when setting the pricing for a brand of software we were launching in 1986. It was the biggest project to date of my short career... more than a year of work by forty people. Should these games cost $29, $34 or $39 each? My bosses and I had one day to finalize our decision for the salesforce.
Unlike Harvard case studies, we had no graphs, no history, no data. We were the first in the category and there was just nothing significant to go on. The meeting was held late on a Thursday. In addition to my newly minted Stanford MBA, we also had two from Harvard, one from Tuck and another I think from Wharton in the room.
We talked for an hour and then did the only intelligent thing--we flipped a coin. To be sure we had it right, we double checked and flipped two out of three. The only mistake we made was wasting an hour pontificating and arguing before we flipped.
This is also the way we should settle closely contested elections. We know the error rate for counting ballots is some percentage--say it's .01%. Whenever the margin is less than the error rate, we should flip. Not waste months and millions in court, we should insist on the flip. Anything else is a waste of time and money.
Or consider the dilemma of the lucky high school student with five colleges to choose from. UVM or Oberlin or Bowdoin or Wesleyan or who knows what famous schools. Once you've narrowed it down and all you're left with is a hunch, once there are no data points to give you a rational way to pick, stop worrying. Stop analyzing. Don't waste $4,000 and a month of anxiety visiting the schools again. The data you'll collect (one lucky meeting, one good day of weather) is just not relevant to making an intelligent decision. Any non-fact based research is designed to help you feel better about your decision, not to help you make a more effective decision.
One last example: if you know from experience that checking job references in your industry gives you basically random results (some people exaggerate, some lie out of spite), then why are you checking?
When there isn't enough data, when there can't be enough data, insist on the flip.
By refusing to lie to yourself, by not telling yourself a fable to make the decision easier, you'll understand quite clearly when you're winging it.
Once you embrace this idea, it's a lot easier not to second guess your decisions--and if you're applying to college, you'll free up enough time to write a novel before you even matriculate.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 07 Apr 2011 11:57 AM PDT For the first time in 40 years, the European benchmark rate has risen before the US. ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet is concerned about wage growth fueling inflation. There may be reasons to hike, but wage growth is not one of them. For starters, the only place wages are likely to rise is Germany. Secondly, the idea that wage growth causes inflation is potty. After months of denial, Portugal is asking for a bailout. The next step is negotiating the terms. Like the Fed, the Bank of England is standing pat. BOE Governor Mervyn King has placed recovery ahead of inflation. All of these items have been expected. ECB Hikes Benchmark Rate to 1.25%, More Hikes Expected Trichet hiked rates as expected. He had been signaling the move for months. Moreover, Trichet Leaves Door Open to Further Rate Moves. Inflation risks remain on the upside and the ECB's monetary policy is still "accommodative," Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt after lifting the benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent. While "we did not decide it was the first in a series of interest-rate increases, you know from our own doctrine that we always do what is necessary to deliver price stability over the medium term," he said.Is Trichet's Move the Right Move? There is no doubt Trichet has adopted a "One Size Fits Germany" Policy. Is that the right move? The answer to the question depends on whether you look at things from the point of view of Germany or from the point of view of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Moreover, and more importantly, Trichet and the ECB should not be making these decisions in the first place. Interest rates should be set by the free market. Bear in mind that bureaucrats, not a free market dreamed up the EU currency union without fiscal controls, thereby ensuring "one size does not fit all". Whatever the ECB does, it is highly likely to screw up one or more European countries. Is this any way to set rates? Portugal Needs $100-$110 Billion Bailout After months of denial, soaring interest rates forced Portugal's hand. Portugal's Socialist prime minister, José Sócrates, bowed to market pressures Wednesday night, requesting a bailout. The New York Times Reports Next Step for Portugal: Negotiating a Bailout Portugal's Socialist prime minister, José Sócrates, bowed to market pressures on Wednesday night and requested a bailout from the European Commission, joining Greece and Ireland.Bank of England Holds Rates Bloomberg reports Bank of England Holds Rate, Putting Recovery Before Inflation The Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, set the key rate at 0.5 percent for a 26th month, as forecast by all 57 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. It also left its bond-purchase program at 200 billion pounds ($327 billion), as predicted by all 32 economists in a separate poll.Mute Market Reaction All of today's actions were expected. Currencies are essentially flat across the board but the Euro is down slightly. Fundamental Factors Affecting Currencies
Finally, sentiment, is amazingly bearish towards the US dollar (I believe unjustifiably so). Extreme sentiment is seldom rewarded, but once again timing is unknown. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Too Many Bureaucrats and They Are Paid Too Much - Part II Posted: 07 Apr 2011 10:36 AM PDT In response to Too Many Bureaucrats and They Are Paid Too Much I received an email from reader "Kurt" saying "Please get a grip". Kurt thinks the size of government is not a problem. Here is the video Kurt was responding to. The video is from Daniel J. Mitchell, Ph.D. Senior Fellow, The Cato Institute. I am a big fan of the Cato Institute. They stand for Individual Liberty, Free Markets, and Peace. Those are three admirable goals. Proving that some people can neither read nor think, Kurt sent a graph from Calculated Risk regarding Government Employment Since 1976. Interestingly, the Cato video posted a similar chart then went on to dispute it three ways, first by salary, second by mentioning quasi-government employees, and third by pointing out figures do not include military employees, postal workers, subsidy recipients, or contract jobs. Here is a chart from the video. Those numbers are from 2005. Care to guess where those numbers are now? Here is another way of looking at things Manufacturing and Construction vs. Government Employment Quasi-Public Jobs Bear in mind the government employment numbers do not include "Quasi-Public" jobs. Please consider Current Decade of Job Losses vs. Great Depression; How Did Quasi-Public Jobs Fare? Who is Whining? Public and Quasi-Public Jobs vs. Everything ElseThe above chart is from A Decade of Labor Market Pain by Mike Mandel. March 2000 vs. March 2011 Let's look at this one final way. Let's compare Establishment Data from March 2000 to Establishment Data March 2011. Government workers in 2000: 20.944 million Government workers in 2011: 22.547 million Private workers in 2000: 109.080 million Private workers in 2011: 107.360 million In the last 11 years government employment rose by 1.603 million In the last 11 years government employment rose by 7.65% In the last 11 years private employment fell by 1.72 million In the last 11 years private employment fell by 1.58% Once again, recall that government jobs exclude military, post office, and contract work. Amusingly the person who wrote me said I need to "get a grip". No Kurt, you need to listen to what the video said, then think. Anyone who thinks government bureaucracy is not massive is simply not thinking. The same applies to anyone who thinks government workers are not overpaid. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Vibrant to Vacant: Mall Vacancies Highest in 11 Years; Online Retail Sales Hit 12% Posted: 07 Apr 2011 02:35 AM PDT Online retail sales keep climbing, big box retailers keep wondering what to do with all their space, and small stores struggle to survive at all. As a result of that nasty brew, Malls Face Surge in Vacancies. Mall vacancies hit their highest level in at least 11 years in the first quarter, new figures from real-estate research company Reis Inc. showed. In the top 80 U.S. markets, the average vacancy rate was 9.1%, up from 8.7%.Shopping Center Economic Model In 2005, the mall-vacancy rate hit a low of 5.1%. For strip centers the boom-time low vacancy rate was 6.7% that same year. On April 18, 2008 I wrote Shopping Center Economic Model Is History Lease rates are going to sink, vacancies are going to soar, and the oncoming supply of mall space with no tenants is going to bankrupt many regional banks that funded such construction. The shopping center economic model will soon be history.Bank Failures Inquiring minds may be interested in a recap of Bank failures in the United States 2008–2011 2008: 25 2009: 140 2010: 157 2011: 26 Only So Many Shoppers A couple weeks ago I was contacted by a reporter in Las Vegas about a new mall going up in the city. I told him the obvious: There are only so many shoppers. What good can a new mall do? During construction it will provide a few jobs. Then what? Then instead of shopping at the old mall people start shopping at the new mall. No one buys any more stuff. Shopping Center Dynamics Ironically, is quite common for city councils to give huge tax breaks to new businesses that "create jobs". Mayors love ribbon-cutting events like mall openings. Then a few years down the road if not sooner, everyone wonders where the jobs are and why expected sales tax revenues did not materialize. There is no need to wonder. The answer should be easy to spot in all the vacant strip-malls and closed stores elsewhere. To be sure, there are some city revivals, but those come at the expense of shoppers staying local rather than driving to the nearest town . The reverse also happens. People travel to the new mall in the neighboring city rather than shop local. This dynamic ensures that malls and strip-malls go up everywhere until there is a crash, which is precisely where we are now. Online Sales Compound the Mall Problem A few years back online sales were about 6% of total sales. Online sales hit 12% this past Christmas. State and local governments are more than a bit upset about the lost sales tax revenue. Malls and big box retailers are upset too. Everyone hates Amazon, except Amazon customers. Big box retailers have a glut of space and many are starting to shrink the number of items they carry. However, every item they do not carry that someone wants to buy, is another item someone will decide to buy online. Yet, every online purchase is one less trip and fewer miles on the car. Thus online shopping also impacts gasoline sales, gasoline tax collection, and car maintenance. Demographics The population is getting older. In advanced years, much of what people buy is health- or food-related, not gadget-related or travel-related. A certain set of people never became comfortable with the internet and internet shopping. Younger generations have no aversion to buying online or not buying at all. Those fresh out of college are deep in debt and struggle to pay that debt off. As boomers head into retirement many are scared half to death about insufficient savings. Their peak shopping years are now well behind them. One bright spot lately has been a revival in luxury items. However, that has largely been a result of the stock market revival. Should there be a sustained relapse in the stock market, luxury sales will take another dive as well. In light of the above, I see no sustainable revival in the shopping center economic model for years to come. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Damn Cool Pics |
55 Beautiful Bird's-Eye Photos by Yann Arthus-Bertrand Posted: 07 Apr 2011 03:31 PM PDT One interesting trend we have noticed recently is the use of a bird's-eye view to take photographs. Modern photographers love to experiment with things and observe how people interact with their work. Although not yet the most common trend, still, as new design styles come up and more and more photographers notice and make use of them, it promises to be an interesting area. Yann Arthus-Bertrand is a French photographer and environmentalist who has a tendency toward stunning bird's eye view photography. Revealing Earth from above, Yann Arthus-Bertrand reveals wonderful symmetry and color. The scenes captured by his camera are fresh because of their unusual angles. Source: yannarthusbertrand2 |
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Inspiring World Press Photo Winners 2011 Posted: 06 Apr 2011 10:11 PM PDT World Press Photo is a respected international foundation that is well known for their "World Press Photos of the Year." They have just named the winners of the awards for this year. Check out the full gallery. |
Hot Girls Doing Cosplay At WonderCon Posted: 06 Apr 2011 09:44 PM PDT |
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