miercuri, 26 octombrie 2011

16 Insights into Google's Rating Guidelines

16 Insights into Google's Rating Guidelines


16 Insights into Google's Rating Guidelines

Posted: 25 Oct 2011 11:33 AM PDT

Posted by Dr. Pete

ChecklistLast week, when the SEO world was distracted by revelations that Google was blocking keyword referral data and nostalgic mania over MC Hammer’s search engine, Search Engine Land released a leaked Google document outlining Google's official guidelines for quality raters. I read the 125-page document out of curiosity, and I decided to share some valuable insights it contains into the mind of Google.

Sorry, No Secrets Here

If you’re looking for SEO “secrets,” you’ll be disappointed by this post. Although this is an internal document, and Google may not be happy about it being leaked, you won’t find a smoking gun here. What you will find is a training manual on Google’s philosophy of quality. The key to proactive SEO is to understand how Google thinks. If you only chase the algorithm, you’ll always be reacting to changes after they happen. Since the document in question is proprietary, I’m not going to link directly to copies of the document or quote large chunks of it. I’m writing this post because I sincerely believe that understanding Google’s philosophy of quality is a fundamentally “white hat” proposition.

What Is A Quality Rater?

Quality raters are Google’s fact checkers – the people who work to make sure the algorithm is doing what it’s supposed to do. Data from quality raters not only serves as quality control on existing SERPs, but it helps validate potential algorithm changes. When you consider that Google tested over 13,000 algorithm changes last year, it’s a pretty important job.

This particular document focuses on rating SERP quality based on specific queries. Essentially, a rater reviews the sites returned by a given query and evaluates each result based on relevance. Raters also flag sites that they consider to be spam. One last note: Google’s philosophy is not always reflected in the algorithm. The algorithm is an attempt to code quality into rules, and that attempt will always be imperfect. The document, for example, says almost nothing about back-link count, unique linking domains, linking C-blocks, etc. Those are all metrics that attempt to quantify relevance.

Here are 16 insights into the human side of Google's quality equation, in no particular order…

(1) Relevance Is A Continuum

I think the biggest revelation of the document, in a broad sense, is that Google’s view of relevance is fairly sophisticated and nuanced. Raters are instructed to rate relevance along a continuum with 5 options: “Vital”, “Useful”, “Relevant”, “Slightly Relevant”, and “Off-topic”. Of course, there is always a certain amount of subjectivity to ratings, but Google provides many examples and detailed guidelines.

(2) Relevance & Spam Are Independent

Relevance is a rating, but spam is a flag. So, in Google’s view, a site can be useful but spammy, or it can be irrelevant but still spam-free. I think we see some of that philosophy in the algorithm. Content is relevant or irrelevant, but spam is about tactics and intent.

(3) The Most Likely Intent Rules

Some queries are ambiguous – “apple”, for example, can mean a lot of things without any context. Google instructs raters to, in most cases, use the dominant interpretation. What’s interesting is that their dominant interpretations often seem to favor big brands. In specific examples, the dominant interpretation of “apple” is Apple Computers and the dominant interpretation of “kayak” is the travel site Kayak.com.

Other interpretations (like “apple” the fruit or “kayak” the mode of transportation) automatically get lower relevance ratings if there’s a dominant interpretation. I think the notion of a dominant interpretation makes some sense, and it may be necessary for a rater to do their job, but it’s also highly subjective. In some cases, I just didn’t agree with Google’s examples, and I felt that the dominant interpretation unfairly penalized legitimate sites. Most people may want to buy an iPad when they type “apple”, but a site that specializes in online organic apple sales is still highly relevant to the ambiguous query, in my opinion.

(4) Some Results Are “Vital”

The “Vital” relevance rating is a special case. Any official entity – a company, an actor/actress, a politician, etc., can have a vital result. In most cases, this is their official home-page. Only a dominant interpretation can be vital – Apple Vacations will never be the vital result for “apple” (sorry, Apple Vacations; I don’t make the rules). I suspect this is a safety valve for checking the algorithm – if “vital” results don’t appear for entity searches, many people would question Google’s results, even if the SEO efforts of those entities don’t measure up.

Social profiles can also be vital, if those profiles are for individuals or small groups. So, a politician, actress or rock band could have multiple “vital” pages (their home-page, their Facebook page, and their Twitter profile, for example). Interestingly, Google specifically instructs that social media profiles for companies cannot be considered vital.

(5) Generic Queries Are Never Vital

Obviously, Walmart.com is a vital result for the query “walmart”, but Couches.com is not a vital result for the query “couches”. An exact-match domain doesn’t automatically make something vital, and some queries are inherently generic.

(6) Queries Come in 3 Flavors

Query intent can be classified, according to Google, as Action (“Do”), Information (“Know”) or Navigation (“Go”). Like ice cream, queries can come in more than one flavor (although Neapolitan ice cream should never substitute banana for vanilla). This Do/Know/Go model comes up a lot in the document and is a pretty useful structure for understanding search in general. Relevance is determined by intent – if a query is clearly action-oriented (e.g. “buy computer”), then only an Action (”Do”) result can be highly relevant.

(7) Useful Goes Beyond Relevance

This is wildly open to interpretation, but Google says that “useful” pages (the top rating below “vital”) should be more than just relevant – they should also be highly satisfying, authoritative, entertaining, and/or recent. This is left to the rater’s discretion, and no site has to meet all of these criteria, but it’s worth nothing that relevance alone isn’t always enough to get the top ratings.

(8) Relevance Implies Language Match

If a search result clearly doesn’t match the target language of the query, then in most cases that result is low-relevance. Likewise, if a query includes or implies a specific country, and the result doesn’t match that country, the result isn’t relevant.

(9) Local Intent Can Be Automatic

Even if a query is generic, it can imply local intent. Google gives the example of “ice rink” – a query for “ice rink” should return local results, and clearly non-local results should be rated as off-topic or useless. This applies whether or not the location is in the query. Again, expect Google to infer intent more and more, and local intent is becoming increasingly important to them.

(10) Landing Page Specificity Matters

A good landing page will fit the specificity of the query. A detailed product page, for example, is a better match to a long-tail query for a specific item. On the other hand, if the query is broad, then a broader resource may be more relevant. For example, if the query is “chicken recipes”, then a page with only one recipe isn’t as relevant as a list of recipes.

(11) Misspellings Are Rated By Intent

If a query is clearly misspelled, the relevance of the results should be based on the user’s most likely intent. In the old days, targeting misspellings was a common SEO practice, but I think we’re seeing more and more that Google will automatically push searchers toward the proper spelling. It’s likely Google is only going to get more aggressive about trying to determine intent and even pushing users toward the dominant intent.

(12) Copied Content Can Be Relevant

This may come as a surprise in a Post-Panda world, but Google officially recognizes that copied content isn’t automatically low quality, as long as it’s well-organized, useful, and isn’t just designed to drive ad views. Again, this is a bit subjective, and it’s clear that you have to add value somehow. A site with nothing but copied content (whether legitimately syndicated or scraped) isn’t going to gain high marks, and a site that’s only using copied content to wrap ads around it is going to be flagged as spam.

(13) Some Queries Don’t Need Defining

Dictionary or encyclopedia pages are only useful if a query generally merits definition or more information. If most users understand the meaning of the query word(s) – Google gives the example of “bank” – then a dictionary or encyclopedia page is not considered useful. Of course, tell that to Wikipedia.

(14) Ads Without Value Are Spam

One quote stood out in the document – “If a page exists only to make money, the page is spam.” Now, some business owners will object, saying that most sites exist to make money, in some form. When Google says “only to make money”, they seem to be saying money-making without content value. It’s ok to make money and have ads on your page, as long as you have content value to back it up. If you’ve just built a portal to collect cash, then you’re a spammer.

(15) Google.com Is Low Relevance

By Google’s standards, an empty search box with no results displayed is off-topic or useless. Ironic, isn’t it? Joking aside, the document does suggest that internal search results pages can be relevant and useful in some cases.

(16) Google Raters Use Firefox

I said no secrets, but I guess this is a little bit of inside information. Google raters are instructed to use Firefox, along with the web developer add-on. Do with that as you will.

Knowing Is 53.9% of The Battle*

So, there you go – 16 insights into the mind of Google. Advanced SEO, in my opinion, really comes down to understanding how Google thinks, and how they translate their values and objectives into code. You can lose a lot of time and money only making changes when you've lost ranking – really understanding the mind of Google is the best way to future-proof your SEO efforts.

*I always wondered what the other half was – blowing stuff up, apparently.


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The White House, Washington


Good morning,

It's part of my job to make sure President Obama gets to hear the voices and perspectives of people outside Washington – and lately, that's not been difficult.

Everywhere the President goes, he gets the same message: Americans just want folks in Washington to work together to build an economy that works for the middle class, not just the wealthiest – and is based on rewarding responsibility, hard work and fairness.  

That's why the President has proposed the American Jobs Act, a set of bold but common-sense measures that will put up to 2 million Americans back to work and more money in the pockets of working Americans. 

Unfortunately, Republicans in Congress keep blocking this bipartisan proposal, putting their party before our country. 
 
We can't wait for Congress to act, so President Obama is moving ahead with executive actions to strengthen the economy, help middle class families and move this country forward. 

On Monday, he was in Nevada to discuss concrete steps we're taking, like removing caps for deeply underwater borrowers and eliminating fees, so that homeowners can refinance their mortgages and save money. On Tuesday, he announced new initiatives that will help put veterans to work in community health centers. And today, he's proposing to offer immediate relief to college students by making it easier to manage their debt while they get on their feet.

These policies aren't a substitute for the American Jobs Act, but they will make a difference. And we don't intend to stop there.
 
The best ideas for growing this economy won't come from Washington – they'll come from Americans like you. So let me tell you about a new way to make your voice heard in our government.

More than 750,000 people have already used a new feature on WhiteHouse.gov called We the People to create and sign petitions calling on the Obama Administration to take action on a range of important issues. Learn more about We the People here:

The President's changes to the student loan program will make it easier for graduates to make their payments and avoid default. 

It's also a great example of We the People at work.

In the past month, thousands of citizens signed a petition about student loans. These individuals rightly pointed out that the weight of this debt is preventing graduates all over the country from achieving their dreams.

It's a message received loud and clear and one that President Obama – who spent almost a decade paying off his own student loans – understands. 

A new report shows that our investments in student financial aid have made a big difference for families, but too many students still struggle with debt. Today, the President announced clear actions to help young people who are doing everything right and living up to their responsibilities, but having a hard time making loan payments while the economy continues to recover.

So what else do you have? What's the next issue you think needs attention?  Make sure your voice is heard in our government:

http://www.WhiteHouse.gov/YourIdeas

We can't wait to see what you have to say.

Sincerely,

David Plouffe
Senior Advisor to the President




 
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We Can't Wait: Making College Affordable

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
 

We Can't Wait: Making College Affordable

As President Obama said, “in the United States of America, no one should go broke because they chose to go to college.”

That's why the Administration is moving forward with ways to help reduce the burden of student debt and decrease monthly loan payments for more than one and a half million current college students and borrowers.

Today at 12:45 p.m. EDT watch President Obama deliver remarks on making college more affordable at WhiteHouse.gov/Live and on the proposal. 

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama and Jay Leno joke backstage before taping the Tonight Show with Jay Leno in Burbank, Calif., Oct. 25, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

American Jobs Act by the Numbers: 1:1
The Obama Administration challenges the 8,000 Community Health Centers around the country to each hire one veteran, creating 8,000 jobs for these American heroes.

First Lady Michelle Obama on Making a Difference in Cities with Food Deserts
She challenged attendees at the Mayor’s Summit on Food Deserts to look for ways to attract grocery stores and other businesses selling fresh produce to their communities.

Keeping First Responders on the Job
Two police officers from Flint, Michigan talk about how their communities are coping with force reductions.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

12:45 PM: The President delivers remarks on college affordability WhiteHouse.gov/live

1:45 PM: The President departs Denver, CO en route Joint Base Andrews

4:55 PM: The President arrives Joint Base Andrews

5:10 PM: The President arrives the White House

WhiteHouse.gov/live  Indicates events that will be live streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Everything I Know About Effective Blogger Outreach

Posted: 25 Oct 2011 02:39 AM PDT

Those of you who follow my tweets will probably know that I've recently launched a book called Get Noticed, which is a guide that explores the processes and techniques that successful networkers use to get noticed.

In the course of writing the book I carried out a lot of research around how people meet and what it takes to develop a strong relationship, which has had a tremendous impact on my understanding of successful blogger outreach. On Wednesday morning I sent out 100 e-mails to YouTube video bloggers and so far I've received 77 replies (not bad when most sources suggest anywhere from 3% to 25% is a good response rate for an outreach campaign).

In this post I want to share a few tips and tricks I've learnt about outreach from researching, writing and marketing Get Noticed to help you improve the success of your outreach campaigns.

Image Credit: ekai

I'm going to assume that you've already done some blogger outreach and know the basics like finding the right bloggers to target, personalising your e-mails, sending them at the right time and including obvious call-to-actions. This one's for the pros


What I Learnt About Blogger Outreach From Marketing Get Noticed

A 5 second meeting in person is worth 100s of e-mails

When contacting high-profile bloggers, a five second in-person introduction has an incredible impact on increasing the likelihood of that blogger helping you out. Busy people tend to use 'filters' to manage their time efficiently, and one of the major filters that busy people use is 'have I met this person in real life?'

I cannot emphasise enough how beneficial it is to attend blogger conferences as a means for improving your outreach campaigns. Second to this, a simple tweet telling the person that you dropped them an e-mail seems to significantly improve response rates as it suddenly presents you as a real person in their world. Being 'real' to someone outside of their inbox is effective for outreach.

Scalability is awesome IF combined with quality & selectiveness

It's common sense that sending 100 e-mails is more effective than sending 10 e-mails, but there are two other parts to this equation: quality + selectiveness.

E-mailing 100 bloggers is pointless if your product or offering isn't good enough. The key to getting a good response rate in an outreach campaign is to give the blogger an irresistible offering. I personally like to sit down with a pen and paper before writing an e-mail campaign and list every possible benefit that I can offer to the blogger, so that my e-mail naturally becomes focused around them and not what I want.

Also, being selective can be very beneficial. Rather than e-mailing 100 Average Joe blogs, could you use the time spent contacting them to get featured on five or six major blogs that would then influence 500 bloggers to write about your product? If your product or offering is awesome, you should be able to get featured by high-profile bloggers.

Picking up the phone is the most effective way to get what you want

A pretty simple concept that I've talked about before; a phone call can sometimes take a little bit longer than an e-mail, but it gives you the ability to adapt to the blogger's immediate response, which is not something you are able to do over e-mail.

If a blogger doesn't have a phone number listed, I'd recommend dropping them a tweet asking if it's okay to get in touch by phone with them.

 

Busy people are better at time management

I remember reading an interesting concept in the book Predictably Irrational, which suggests that busier people tend to be better at responding to e-mails. The theory behind this is that busy people tend to be better at time management and actioning opportunities.

When contacting people for pre-publication reviews of Get Noticed I was shocked to see the first replies come in from CEOs of major corporations and various New York Times Best-Selling Authors.

Don't be afraid to contact the A-list bloggers just because they're 'out of reach', you'd be surprised at how accessible they are.

What I Learnt About Blogger Outreach From Writing Get Noticed

Be in the right place at the right time, all the time

One of my favourite chapters in Get Noticed is 'How to Be in the Right Place at the Right Time, All The Time'. Most of us assume that when we we're supposedly in the right place at the right time, it was a stroke of luck. There is in fact more science and probability at work than we might immediately recognise. Lets break it down:

  • You were prepared either subconsciously or consciously with specific and clear objectives about the type of person you wanted to meet.
  • You were both in the same place (either geographically, or virtually)
  • You were perceptive enough to make the connection with them.

The first step to being in the right place at the right time, is knowing exactly what that place is. Who are the people you are trying to meet and where do they spend their time? If the answer is tech bloggers, then analyse where tech bloggers spend their time and be there. Attend technology conferences and meet-ups, write for the blogs they read, spend time in the cities notorious for tech blogging.

Being in that place 'all the time' requires you to analyse how your time is spent and replacing the 'unsociable' hours with sociable hours. I met a lot of great people by being 'in the right place at the right time' whilst writing Get Noticed by writing the book in cafés and restaurants (a sociable venue) rather than in a home study or office (an unsociable venue).

Broadly speaking, there are three main categories for how we spend our time: at work, at home, at hobbies. Working out how you distribute your time in each category and finding ways to make each aspect more 'sociable' can increase your odds of meeting more of the people who will help you.

Understand and be sensitive to a blogger's accessibility

Just like celebrities, bloggers are both accessible and inaccessible in different places. Understand where it is that bloggers are most accessible and use that channel to cut through the competition and get their attention.

My experience has shown me that e-mail is relatively ineffective when contacting high-profile bloggers, when compared to Twitter and attending conferences, which are both channels where bloggers tend to be far more receptive.

Some bloggers will openly state on their blogs how they like to be contacted, some will consciously or subconsciously design their site in a way that pushes you towards their preferred channel of communication (i.e. if they have their Twitter link or phone number at the bottom of every post and only a fairly hidden link to their e-mail on one page, you're probably best contacting them via Twitter or telephone!)

Utilise your existing network

When you do things for altruistic reasons it makes you feel genuinely good about yourself, especially if you've helped out a friend. Utilising your existing network is a powerful way to reach bloggers if your current network is likely to know the sort of people you need to meet. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know that I ask for a lot of virtual introductions to new people who are relevant to what I'm doing. This works amazingly well, as I always link to those who help me out as well as those who I virtually meet in the blog posts that I write.

If you need to meet sport bloggers, send a few e-mails to your friends or send out a tweet to see if anyone can help you out – don't feel like you're burdening your network, you're not, in fact you're helping them, too.

Be likeable, genuine, and understand a blogger's motivations

I receive a fair number of outreach e-mails to my personal website e-mail accounts, and the #1 reason why I don't reply to some of them is because they've forgotten to mention or outline what the benefit is to me.

Why should I waste half an hour helping someone I've never met increase their rankings and profile by blogging about them? There are plenty of reasons, such as: it gives me extra content, I could receive affiliate commissions, a free product to test, promotion from their company's social media accounts or an invite to an exclusive webinar, but they rarely mention my motivations.

Also, remember that only 7% of communication between humans is 'what you say', 93% of what you say is non-verbal communication, which means that if you're e-mailing someone, 93% of your communication is lost in translation as the recipient cannot see your body language, facial expression, and to some extent, tone.

This means that you need to make 'what you say' compensate for the lack of non-verbal communication by ensuring that your tone is likeable and that the core message to your e-mail is genuine and honest.

Further Reading on Blogger Outreach

As a special offer, SEOptimise readers receive a 15% discount when purchasing an eCopy of Get Noticed before November 1st. To get your copy visit WeGetNoticed.com and use the discount code ‘R3T1634N’ when checking out.

I also recommend checking out James Carson's 12-step hustle process here and also giving this Dale Carnegie approach to blogger outreach a read.

© SEOptimise - Download our free business guide to blogging whitepaper and sign-up for the SEOptimise monthly newsletter. Everything I Know About Effective Blogger Outreach

Related posts:

  1. 30​ Web Trends You Have to Know About in 2011
  2. 30 Ways to Use Social Media for Business People
  3. Christmas Crackers: Top Comments from 2010

Seth's Blog : Memories of bitterness

Memories of bitterness

"I don't like that guy," she said.

"Why not," I wondered...

It turns out that she had done some business with him years ago and it hadn't gone well. When pressed, though, she couldn't actually recall what the problem had been, or how much financial or project damage had been done. All she remembered was that she didn't like him.

That's the way it usually is. You read those letters to the complaint columns in the paper or online, and the actual facts are often pretty trivial. What we remember isn't the financial hit, we remember the injustice, the disrespect, the way we felt at the time.

Your accountant might care about the facts. You, the marketer, need to care about the conversations and the memories.

 

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marți, 25 octombrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Holiday Price Wars Begin Because "Price Matters"

Posted: 25 Oct 2011 10:03 PM PDT

In yet another indication of a weak holiday shopping season, stores aim to outdo each other as shoppers focus on getting the best deals.

This shopping season is shaping up into two key words "Price Matters"
A week before Halloween and two full months before Christmas, stores are desperately trying to outdo each other in hopes of drawing in customers worn down by the economy.

Wal-Mart, the biggest store in the nation, joined the price wars Monday by announcing that it would give gift cards to shoppers if they buy something there and find it somewhere else cheaper.

Staples and Bed Bath & Beyond have already said they will match the lowest prices of Amazon.com and other big Internet retailers. Sears is going a step further, offering to beat a competitor's best price by 10 percent.

In a recent poll of 1,000 shoppers by America's Research Group, 78 percent said they were more driven by sales than they were a year ago. During the financial meltdown in 2008, that figure was only 68 percent.

Duncan MacNaughton, chief merchandising officer for Wal-Mart's U.S. stores, told reporters Monday that he has noticed "much more promotional intensity and gimmicks" among competitors.

The holiday price wars mark an acceleration of a trend that has already swept the retail industry. Lowe's, the nation's No. 2 home improvement store, said in August it was starting to focus on everyday low prices for items that customers can easily comparison-shop at rivals like Home Depot and Sears.

64 percent of shoppers polled said that it would take discounts between 30 percent to 50 percent to get them to spend, up from 54 percent last year, according to a recent Citi Investment Research & Analysis survey of a little more than 1,000 customers. Customers looking for 60 percent off as a big motivator to spend increased to 10 percent from 8 percent last year, the survey showed.

"The reality is consumers are targeted. They're well informed, and they've searched the Internet for price information," said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, which expects foot traffic to drop 2.2 percent during the holiday season compared with a year ago.
It is extremely rare to see shopping estimates lower than last year. That does not mean lower traffic and lower sales are written in stone, but that is the way consumer sentiment numbers and shipping stats are shaping up.

For details, please see ...


Even if spending does not drop, expect profits to drop on reduced markups and increased discounts.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Greece Pension Plans Insolvent; No Conceivable Way to Make Promises; Can Spain and Portugal be Far Behind?

Posted: 25 Oct 2011 12:51 PM PDT

I am attempting to figure out just how deep in the hole Greek pension plans are. I have not had any luck finding plans or asset holdings but there are a few things we know and some assumptions we can make.

One of the things we do know is that Greek pension plans are one of the largest holders of Greek bonds.

For the sake of argument, let's assume a 60% haircut on the value of those bonds although I believe that haircut will increase over time. The critical question is what percentage the pension plans hold Greek bonds, other sovereign bonds, Greek equities, and other equities.

Here is a look at the stock markets of Greece, Germany, and France from the site Trading Economics. Click on any chart for sharper image.

Greece Stock Market




German Stock Market



French Stock Market




Here are a few scenarios assuming the Greek pension plans are primarily weighted in Greek bonds. These scenarios may or may not be realistic.

60% Greek Bonds and 40% Greek Equities

Down 60% on 60% and down 85% on 40%.
Current value is 40% of 60% + 15% of 40%
Current value is 24% + 6% = 30%
Plan value is down 70% since 2008

60% Greek Bonds and 40% European Equities (weighted 50% Greece, 25% Germany, 25% France)
Down 60% on 60%, Down 85% on 20%, Down 41% on 10%, Down 25% on 10%
Current value is 40% of 60% + 15% of 25% + 59% of 10% + 75% of 10%
Current value is 24% + 3.75% + 5.9% + 7.5% = 41.15%
Plan value is down 58.85% since 2008

There are more than one Greek pension plan programs, but no matter what they are invested in, all of them have horrendous losses in the last few years. Moreover, the more the plans are invested in the Greek equities markets and Greek bonds vs. other European bonds and other European equities, the worse off those pension plans are.

If the plans are primarily in German and French bonds as opposed to Greek bonds, the plans are in much better shape than presented in the above examples. If the plans are primarily in Greek equities they are far worse.

To know just how badly underfunded the plans are, we need to look at individual plans, as well as pension plan assumptions. Greek citizens need to be told the truth regarding those pension plans, no matter how bad the situation is.

Because of the holdings of Greek bonds, one thing I am sure of is the already crippled finances of Greek citizens are about to take another hit. I do not believe there is any conceivable way the promises will be kept even with agreed upon pension cutbacks.

The answer to headline question "Can Spain and Portugal be Far Behind?" is no. It will become apparent as soon as there are haircuts on Spanish and Portuguese bonds (assuming it is not apparent already).

Addendum:

Please consider Funds, banks exposed to any Greek restructuring
Greek banks are estimated to hold close to 20 percent of the country's estimated 327 billion euro sovereign debt, or nearly 60 billion euros. National Bank has the biggest share at 12.8 billion euros; the second biggest bank, EFG Eurobank, has about 7.4 billion euros, according to sources at the banks.

Greek social security funds hold slightly over 8 billion euros, according to the Finance Ministry. But their relative exposure is huge, as their liquid assets total 11.68 billion euros. IKA, the biggest fund, has almost two thirds of its liquid assets in Greek bonds and Treasury bills.

If they are unable to pay health and pension benefits, the state will be forced to help, which would further hurt its fiscal position as the government defies public opposition to impose waves of tough austerity measures.

Some analysts therefore think the Greek politicians who are urging debt rescheduling may not fully understand what it would entail.
Two-thirds in Greek bonds and US Treasuries, OK - Split how?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Lines to Withdraw Deposits Queue Up as Run on the Banks starts in Greece

Posted: 25 Oct 2011 10:29 AM PDT

With talk of 50% or 60% haircuts on Greek bonds, already mistrustful Greek citizens have queued up to pull deposits. Via Google Translate, The Bild reports Greeks Plunder their Accounts in Fear of Debt Cuts.
Monday morning, 7.40 clock in the district of Athens, "Agia Paraskevi". We, the BILD reporters are witnesses, of a queue in front of a branch of the "National Bank of Greece" right after the opening at 8:00.

"I come here to immediately pick up my pension € 300. Who knows what else happened today. My money is safe only when it is at home" said Pensioners Evagelos Dimitros age 73.

The head of an Athens bank branch told BILD: "More and more Greeks who still have some money come to get it from the bank. In my office there are a total of 5,000 customers, 2,500 of which either have their money transferred abroad or hoard it at home. If this continues, there will soon be no more money."
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Apply Enough Pressure, Something Eventually Breaks; Italy Government on Brink of Collapse

Posted: 25 Oct 2011 09:20 AM PDT

The EU has applied constant pressure on Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi for more austerity measures, more reforms, and more loss of sovereignty.

This prompted a humiliated Berlusconi who has enough problems of his own to launch a verbal attack on EU officials stating "No one in the EU can nominate themselves as special administrators and speak in the name of elected governments and the European people. No one is in the position of giving lessons to his partners".

Today it should not be surprising to see the Financial Times report Italian government on brink of collapse
Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right coalition government in Italy appears in danger of collapsing over European Union demands for a demonstration of concrete action on economic reform by Wednesday's summit of eurozone leaders.

The EU ultimatum delivered to Mr Berlusconi in Brussels on Sunday risks breaking his coalition instead of giving it an external impetus to move ahead on measures to cut Italy's debt and promote economic growth.

The ultimatum was delivered as part of efforts to resolve the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, but the Italians' failure to reach agreement on reform threatens EU leaders' stated goal of finalising at Wednesday's summit a comprehensive solution to the crisis.

Talks on Tuesday morning between Mr Berlusconi and his Northern League coalition partners failed to resolve the deadlock – centred on proposed pension reforms – after negotiations into Monday night made little progress.

The prime minister's People of Liberty party has proposed that the pension age be raised to 67 years from 65 in line with increasing life expectancy, and that the system of length-of-service pensions also be modified. The Northern League is opposed and La Padania, its party newspaper, on Tuesday attacked what it called "euro-tyranny".
Berlusconi Government Already Collapsed

If you apply enough pressure long enough something will break. It already has. Berlusconi's coalition has failed, even though Berlusconi has survived several "votes of confidence". The opposition and members of the coalition are simply waiting for the opportune time to dump him.

Giorgio Napolitano, Italy's head of state, a figurative position, warned Berlusconi to adopt the "new decisions of great importance" that he had promised.

The Financial Times comments "Mr Napolitano, strongly pro-European and one of the few remaining Italian politicians to command widespread public respect, dismissed complaints of loss of sovereignty as irrelevant, noting that Italy had accepted limits to its sovereignty when it became a founding member of the European Union and later in joining its single currency."

Insufficient Votes

How do you adopt "new decisions of great importance" when the votes are not there?

Italy desperately needs pension reforms and an increase in retirement age. However, the time to work out such problems was when the Eurozone first formed.

Now these structural reforms, forced austerity measures, and most importantly need to obtain common fiscal agreements come at a time of of political strife and a recession. Together with massive problems in Spain and Portugal, an unworkable EFSF (whether leverage is used or not), and recent decisions by the German Supreme Court, it is only a matter of time before the Maastricht Treaty itself collapses as unworkable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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