Here's how much more you'll pay

Good afternoon, I'll cut to the chase: If Congress doesn't act soon, middle-class Americans will see their taxes go up starting on January 1st, taking almost $1,000 out of the pockets of a typical family next year.  Last year, President Obama and members of both parties in Congress cut the payroll tax for 155 million workers, putting money in your pockets.  Now, that tax cut is expiring. So in September, the President and I proposed extending that tax cut and cutting your taxes even further: giving the typical family a $1,500 tax cut.  Steps like this won't just help families feel more secure in their budgets, it'll give them more money to spend at local businesses that will hire more people and make investments in new equipment too. We thought the extension would win bipartisan support again. How could Republicans in Congress, some of whom have pledged not to raise taxes by a penny, oppose extending the same tax cuts they just passed? But after years of protecting expensive tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, many Republicans now say we should let this middle-class tax cut expire. There's a lot at stake here for you and your family, and the better folks understand how much more they may have to pay, the easier it will be to get Congress to do the right thing. We've put together a calculator to show how much of your money hangs in the balance. Try it out. Last week, we finally got some good news from Capitol Hill. Congress passed another measure from our American Jobs Act, creating tax credits for companies that hire veterans – and yesterday President Obama signed the bill into law.  But folks, as important as that is, it's not nearly enough. There is not a single good reason – not one – why Congress should stop there. Just like that tax credit will help ensure returning service members can find a job, the American Jobs Act helps put Americans back to work by jump starting the private sector and creating an economy that’s built to last. Congress ought to pass the rest of our proposals, too. And Congress should start with protecting your paycheck. Let me lay out the facts: Today, because of our tax cuts, everyone who collects a paycheck contributes 4.2 percent of their wages in payroll taxes. But if Congress doesn't act, that tax will go up two percentage points, to 6.2 percent. That might not sound like much, but to an average family, that's a difference of almost $1,000 a year. President Obama and I have proposed cutting the rate even further – down to 3.1 percent. That would give a tax cut to 160 million workers next year, providing a $1,500 cut to the typical middle class family.  We have 40 days for Congress to take action. That's 40 days for Republicans in Congress to do the right thing for the country – or 40 days before they force middle-class families to pay almost $1,000 more. Take a minute to calculate what's at stake for you:  http://www.whitehouse.gov/economy/jobsact/calculator Sincerely,  Vice President Joe Biden    This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com. Unsubscribe e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Gaming Social Media Signals For Fun And Profit

---

Gaming Social Media Signals For Fun And Profit Posted: 21 Nov 2011 12:52 PM PST Posted by joehall This post was originally in YOUmoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc. About two weeks ago I gave a talk at Pubcon titled, "Global Social Media Signals For SEO". During the end of the talk I briefly mentioned several techniques used to "game" social signals. Afterwards it was apparent that many were interested to learn more about gaming these signals. So without further ado, I would like to talk more about how to game social media signals. Oh wait a second! It looks like I got a little ahead of myself, before we go any further I think we should try to answer one question: Why should anyone try to game social media signals? If you are a giant dork (like moi), then gaming social media signals can be fun! However, if you have friends in the real world then I would suggest you try and identify actionable goals with the signals you are gaming, otherwise this might turn into a waste of time. Some actionable goals would be to push content with in networks, increase user "authority", or even game outside channels like search results. Quick note about, gaming search results with social signals: Social media signals for search are still in its infancy. Over the last several years we have seen the engines employ a variety of different techniques to integrate social signals. However, each of these have had fluctuating significance. Therefore, I would advise that you integrate social signals as a part of a much larger marketing plan that also includes all of the fundamentals of SEO. Social media is not replacing SEO, it's making it better. Get Inside Your Target's Head (psychology) Your target here is your audience, and it's important that you understand what they are motivated by to get them to act. Most economists will call these "incentives". However, most of the time we aren't using direct calls to action in social media, so these are more likely akin to dangling a worm in-front of a fish. We aren't telling the fish to bite; we are hoping that the worm looks good enough for the fish to bite on its own. One of the most well known psychologists of the 20th century on the topic of motivation was Abraham Maslow. Maslow is widely known for his "hierarchy of needs" which he first published in a paper in 1943. Here you can see that Maslow has classified needs into 5 sections: Physiological, Safety, Love/belonging, Esteem, and Self-actualization. Despite the fact that each of these sections clearly articulate an individual need within the human experience, I tend to disagree with the concept a hierarchy because it implies that each are separate of the others. For example I might want self-actualization and crave a cheeseburger at the same time. However, understanding Maslow's theory can help you position your content and your sharing strategy in a way that aligns with an individual's basic needs. A much more recent study [PDF] published by the Journal of Marketing Research looked at what types of content are more likely to go "viral". They concluded that content that invoked high physiological arousal was more likely to be shared or engaged. Leveraging The Right Content Recently Matt McGee showed us data that reveals that images draw more Facebook interactions than any other posting type. Remember that interactions aren't the same as content consumption. For example Its clear that video consumption on the web is constantly rising. But the nature of social media relies on metrics that tend to have quick shelf life. In other words, users might watch a video or read a blog post, but when done they are ready to move on to the next piece of content, not click "like" or +1. Images are quick and can be consumed without a click through, which keeps the user close to the "share", "retweet", "like" buttons. While images are ruling Facebook, animated images are killing it on Google+. Some of you might find them annoying, but it has become increasingly apparent that these zany GIFs are very popular with "shares" and "+1"'s. Just a few days ago I got over 200 shares in less than 12 hours with an animated GIF. Check out GIFBin and browse the top rated or top tagged for animated GIFs that will work well with in Google+. If blog posts are your cup of tea, you should learn to embed viral factors to increase on page sharing. Things like uniform image sizes and emphasizing white space can motivate more social clicks. Images (both animated and not) can get a lot of traction, but other content types can be just as successful. The trick is finding (or creating) what works. What I typically do is troll other networks like reddit or digg looking for content that is already trending. Then I re-post on other networks. I used to call this "Retweet Bait", but it can be applied anywhere that inner-network sharing is available. Identifying The Right Signals Share/Spread Signals: Retweets Facebook shares Google+ shares Authority Signals: Relationship ratios. Mentions Inbound activity Simple Quantitative Signals: Google +1 Facebook likes. "Up/Down votes" Discussion Signals: Comment threads In stream mentions. Share/Spread Signals - Gaming these signals can help not only distribute content to the widest audience, but will also put your name in-front of other users, increasing relationship metrics and improving authority. If you are a "breaking" news publisher you are going to want to focus on these metrics to influence Google's recent freshness update and trip the query deserves freshness signal. For best results you are going to want to use clear straightforward calls to action like, please retweet, "please share", or any other appropriate variant. Simple Quantitative Signals - These have got to be the simplest social signals available. They are great for measuring content quality and act as a baseline for other metrics. You can easily game these by including clear straight forward calls to action. "Please support us by liking this post!" If you are using WordPress, you are going to want to check out the WP Greet Box it allows you to include a custom call to action above or below the post based on the referring URL. So if a user comes to your blog from Google+ you can include a call to action similar to: "Hey there! If you enjoy this post please +1 it!" Authority Signals - Search engines and social networks are constantly trying to judge authority. These signals are vital to having strength in social media. The most obvious authority metric is relationship ratios on asymmetrical networks like Twitter. With asymmetrical networks we can judge authority [PDF via] by looking at the ratio to following and followers. Facebook recently added the subscribe feature which will give the ability to use this same type of analysis. Authority can also be weighted by inter-network mentions and even inbound activity. Discussion Signals - When users comment on your content they are effectively sending a signal that your content holds value. Content that starts dialog generally also gets shared. To game this signal you are going to want to ask open-ended questions that inspire debate or dialog. Make The Signals Pop Getting a handful of Facebook likes or +1's can be a good start. But to see real traction you have to make the signals "pop". It's hard to tell exactly what is needed to get each signal to register on the various networks, but one starting place is taking a second look at Facebook's EdgeRank. EdgeRank is responsible for pushing the most popular content with in each Facebook social stream. From what we know, Facebook is using three main factors to influence EdgeRank: Affinity Score - This is a relationship metric that measures how close you are to others. If a user visits another's page often, or sends them multiple messages the score is higher. If a user has a high affinity score with another they are more likely to show up in their social stream. You can game this score by getting users to regularly visit your Facebook page. Edge weight - Every time a user engages content with in the social stream, the content is given an "edge" over other less popular content. Comments, likes, and shares all count towards "edge". You can game this metric [PDF] by asking open ended questions with an inherent bias. Here's an example: "How badly do you think the republicans will do in this election?" Democrats will "like" (or +1) this question because of the inherent bias. Republicans will comment on it, because of the inherent bias. As a result we are gaming two of the needed metrics to influence Edge weight. Time decay - Fresher content is more likely to be included in the social stream. The best way to game this metric is to develop evergreen content that you can re-share periodically. While EdgeRank is exclusive to Facebook, other networks have similar systems of ranking internal content. It is clear that Google+ is using something analogous to EdgeRank, but with two main differences: Google+ doesn't filter content in the social stream, it just reorders it. Also, it appears that Google+ doesn't put as much weight on affinity as Facebook does. Kitchen Sink Strategy In marketing (and life) I often execute what I call the kitchen sink strategy. Basically this entails throwing "everything but the kitchen sink" at a problem and seeing what works. Gaming social signals are no different. Which is why when I promote content I try to include as many of the tactics described above as possible. For example, not long ago we launched a small site to test various marketing strategies. When it came time to test Google+ I wanted to attack the signals from all corners. Therefore, I embedded the OpenGraph image meta tag to pull a large version of our logo into the social stream. Then I designed a question with direct calls to action embedded into multiple choice answers. Coaxing the user to engage with multiple choice questions is an example of manipulating inherent cognitive biases. The result? We get basic feedback about a design and gamed Google+'s social stream with all the elements needed to make the signals "pop". Keep Pushing The Limits Social media signals are gaining significance every day. However, as information sharing changes and the various social channels rise and fall in popularity, there is no set methodology you should follow now or in the future. Instead, it is important to constantly test new strategies and ideas. Good luck gaming! Do you like this post? Yes No

Yahoo Sunsets Site Explorer (A Eulogy) Posted: 21 Nov 2011 12:39 AM PST Posted by iPullRank Bing, Yahoo!, members of the Microsoft family, Tim, distinguished guests, inbound marketers and fellow Mozzers today we say goodbye to competitive link intelligence as offered by one of the Big 3 Search Engines. The SEO world will remember the brainchild of Tim Mayer, Yahoo! Site Explorer, as the first comprehensive tool that allowed users to find out which sites and pages were indexed, inbound links to any site and submit and track XML feeds. Yahoo, the search engine that could -- and did invent the precursor to not only Bing and Google’s Webmaster Tools but also link indices such as LinkScape/Open Site Explorer and MajesticSEO. Yahoo Site Explorer was born September 29th, 2005 and has been laid to rest November 21st, 2011; you had an amazing run. Yahoo! Site Explorer or YSE as you were known to those closest to you, we will remember your sleek easy to use “Don’t Make Me Think” user interface.  It was very clear what you wanted us to do and once we did it you generously shared your data with us as though we were family. You asked no questions of us unless of course we were trying to change your mind. Only then did you require us to prove ourselves.  We will remember you for allowing us to submit feeds, URLs, sitemaps to “Tell us what we don’t know. If you don’t find a URL that you expect to be in the index, use free submit. In case you hadn’t heard, we are also accepting lists of URLs, so you don’t have to provide us one URL at a time” as Yahoo! declared at your birth. YSE we will remember you for charming ability to show us more about ourselves and where we could improve to be better in the eyes of the Internet. You shared what information you knew about us almost as fast as you could collect it.  YSE we will remember you for your special ability to tell us about everyone else that knew about us and where they’d shared it on the web, before you there was no comprehensive way to do that. Sure Google had the “link:” operator but it was never as forthcoming as you were. Most importantly YSE we will remember you for telling us who linked to our competitors. This is how you truly changed the world.  We respect you and commend for all your efforts and the API that once fed a variety of tools such as BackLinkWatch and the SEOBook Link Tool Suite. Your knowledge, speed and freshness will be missed. Many Search Marketers will pause and reflect on Yahoo Site Explorer with feelings of inspiration and serenity: “Y!SE was the inspiration for me to raise capital and build the Linkscape index w/ Nick+Ben. I felt the web's link graph should be a resource that's available to anyone, and that's why we always made sure that users of OSE could get the same functionality Y!SE offered for free (up to 1,000 links, unlimited runs, etc.)” - Rand Fishkin (CEO & Co-Founder of SEOmoz) “YahooSiteExplorer, to me, has become like a well-loved piece of furniture, think Grandma's old couch, that served its purpose at one point, but now sits forgotten in the parlor. Much like Grandma's old couch, I have not used it much in the past year, since I have had full access to OpenSiteExplorer and MajesticSEO, but YahooSiteExplorer will always be remembered fondly." –John Doherty  “Feels like I'm one of the few that will miss it! I used to love some of the combinations of operators you could use on it” - Paddy Moogan    “cos 'All good things are wild, and free' - Henry David” –Himanshu Sharma "Free backlink research on your competitors will never be the same" – Dennis Goedegebuure “YSE was simple to use and a great way to find links to competitors other tools might miss.” –Joe Youngblood "I 'grew up' with it as an SEO, had a nice little link from my desktop, was easy and convenient to access." – Carla Marshall “No alternative is as fast as YSE. Gone are the days of same-week link reports. We'll have to get smarter (as always in SEO).” - Tre Jones “I will miss it because it was a very fast way to see if a link was there. And because it was my 1st SEO tool (with other)” –Gianluca Fiorelli "Even after I switched to OSE for everyday use, it was always strangely comforting to know that YSE was there. It was kind of like that friend you rarely talk to, but you know will be on the other end of the phone if you need them." -Dr. Pete While others will dance on your grave and celebrate your death:  “YSE was an inspired flank-attack by Yahoo on Google at the time and was the SEO tool of choice for years. But its time has come.” - Dixon Jones (Marketing Director of MajesticSEO) “I actually won't miss it! Sorry YSE!, it was good while it lasted.” –Richard Baxter “I won't miss YSE. There's really been little to no value in site explorer since Yahoo gave up on being a search engine.” –Bill Slawski “I won't miss it, it was a brain melt of information with no logical organisation. There are plenty of tools that give better data” –Wayne Barker “I agree with Bill Slawski I quit using YSE 2 years ago.” –Joe Hall However no one can deny that you’ve changed the game and gave birth to variety of children that have continued to walk in your large footprints.  Save for Blekko, no search engine offers the transparency that you did YSE. And while some third party tools have surpassed you in presentation, metrics and breadth of data most are still attempting to attain your speed, freshness and accuracy. Although via the Bing-Yahoo! alliance Bing Webmaster Tools is your named successor Open Site Explorer and MajesticSEO clearly lead the pack with their extensive link indices and in-depth analysis of that link graph only time will tell which of your offspring will emerge victorious as the king of backlink analysis. Open Site Explorer MajesticSEO Link Diagnosis Google Webmaster Tools Bing Webmaster Central Blekko (search [domain] /SEO) SEO Spyglass RavenTools Research Central The Creator in his Own Words I've asked Tim Mayer, the father of Yahoo Site Explorer to say a few words about his about his brainchild, particularly about how it came about, the pitfalls, how he feels it was handled and the future. Without further ado I give you Tim in his own words: "There were a few reasons for launching site explorer in no particular order: Improve comprehensiveness of the Yahoo Web Search Index so webmasters could let us know what pages were missing in a very transparent manner Attempt to move the Webmaster robotic queries off of the user interface and move these queries onto another interface/api where we could more easily and separately manage it. This would provide cleaner user metrics for the search team Create a site where Yahoo search could interface with webmasters and site owners and improve relationships between webmasters/publishers and Yahoo. The need was that webmasters needed to know who was linking to them, which of these links were being recognized by the search engines as well as how many and what pages were being indexed by the search engines. There were not many pitfalls as I saw them and it became a popular tool for many people. I am sure some SEOs such as Dave Naylor, Greg Boser and Rae can give you some pitfalls... I feel it was handled well [by Yahoo! after I left] for a while. Now Yahoo is no longer an algorithmic engine and the responsibilities to engage and interact with the webmasters and publishers has now become the responsibility of Bing. I have had the opportunity to spend some time with Duane Forrester at Bing and he is a great interface for the webmaster community for Bing.  Google has always done a great job interfacing with the webmaster community via people like Matt Cutts, Vanessa Fox and Mail Ohye. It was fun working with them on standards such as open site maps. We also developed some webmaster features of our own such as NOODP and NOYDIR tags to opt out of using directory data in the search engine title and descriptions.  I think it is awesome that others have created similar tools such as Majestic and SEOMOZ [Open Site Explorer]. I am always very excited when people come up with upgraded features that site explorer did not have such as when Majestic came out with historical link data which is so cool. I have always been interested in this space having launched a very basic product called URL Investigator when I was at FAST/All The Web in March 2003 then Site Explorer in September 2005. It is important for search engines to focus on the users but also to interface with webmasters and publishers as well. I feel that there are a lot of great tools in the space. I do see a lot of opportunity for these tools to improve and progress in the future as well. For the last year I have been in the Paid Search space working for Trada, a company in Boulder, Colorado. I left Trada the week prior to Pubcon and have been working on a new product. There are a lot of new marketing channels  which are causing fragmentation to occur. These new channels are often influencing one another such as social's influence on search which will become more influential in the future. These shifts bring tremendous opportunity for someone with my passions and experience." Thank you Tim for you and your teams hard work and Yahoo Site Explorer, thank you for everything you shared with us and may you rest in pixels. Do you like this post? Yes No

You are subscribed to email updates from SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

President Obama is Fighting for Middle Class Families

Your Daily Snapshot for Tuesday, Nov.22, 2011   President Obama is Fighting for Middle Class Families This morning, President Obama will speak about the American Jobs Act and why it is so important to pass the payroll tax cuts for middle class families. See how the payroll tax cuts will put more money back in your pocket and watch President Obama speak at 12:15 p.m. EST on WhiteHouse.gov/Live. In Case You Missed It Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog. President Obama on the Supercommittee's Failure to Reach a Compromise President Obama talked about supercommittee's failure to reach a compromise from the White House Briefing Room. Fighting to Help Our Heroes Find Jobs Veterans share their own stories about the difficulties returning service members face when transitioning into the civilian workforce. President Obama: "Hire a Veteran" This morning, President Obama signed the "VOW to Hire Heroes Act" into law.  Today's Schedule All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST). 9:10 AM: The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews 9:50 AM: The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route Manchester, NH 10:30 AM: The Vice President chairs a regular meeting of senior officials to assess progress in Iraq 11:00 AM: The President arrives Manchester, NH 12:15 PM: The President delivers remarks on the American Jobs Act 1:20 PM: The President departs Manchester, NH en route Joint Base Andrews 2:40 PM: The President arrives Joint Base Andrews 2:55 PM: The President arrives at the White House  Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live. Get Updates Sign up for the Daily Snapshot Stay Connected     Facebook Twitter YouTube Flickr iTunes     This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Manage Subscriptions for e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Sign Up for Updates from the White House Unsubscribe e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Seth's Blog : The problem with amortization

The problem with amortization

It costs more than a hundred dollars a day to use the wifi at the convention center in Toronto.

A 2 ounce bag of chips at the airport costs $4, the same price a pound costs at the local market.

A three-minute visit to the doctor might cost $250, even though the doctor clearly isn't making $5000 an hour...

What's happening is obvious: you're paying extra to subsidize something else. In order to have a clean lobby or repaired runway or a life-saving but little-used machine on hand, institutions charge some people extra and spread it out over some of their larger costs.

When AT&T first suffered from competition, they accused MCI and others of skimming the cream. They said that a company that sold something like long distance at a reasonable price was taking away their ability to subsidize all the other universal services they offered. They built those services on subsidies.

In the digital age, we get annoyed at these subsidies. That's because competitors are peeling off the cash cows and selling them separately. A $20 cable for your phone costs a penny or a dollar online--because the person selling it to you doesn't have to subsidize all the other costs with an expensive add on, right?

It used to be that the only way to collect the money we needed for roads and facilities and other widely used services was to charge a lot for the few things that were seen as extras. Now, though, it's easier than ever to track actual use, to coordinate consumption with payment. The technology is no longer the problem, it's our habits that are holding us back.

Simple example: a combination of gas tax and digital toll collection could instantly move the vast percentage of transport cost from society to the individual. Drive more, pay more. There are social implications (it's a regressive shift) but more important, people would be outraged--the same ones that don't like paying for a $20 cable(!).

Those that have been subsidized hate having it end, and even those that will save money don't really like the truth of their consumption so clearly exposed.

 

• Email to a friend •

More Recent Articles

• Your competitive advantage
• Moving beyond impressions
• Optimistic enthusiasm as a form of realism
• No.
• The largest independent content sites

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.

---

Click here to safely unsubscribe from "Seth's Blog." Click here to view mailing archives, here to change your preferences, or here to subscribe

---

---

Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

---

• Official Denial in Greece Regarding "Indefinite Liquidity and Banking Stability"; Is a Worthless Guarantee Twice as Good When Doubled?
• Mission Accomplished: Nothing; Kerry Says No Problem "Lawmakers Have a Year"; Boehner's, Pelosi's "Moral Obligations" Fly Out the Window; McCain's Hypocrisy; Look for US Debt Downgrades
• "New Stress High in Our Indicators": Bond Spreads, CDS, Demand Deposits, Euro Basis 3-Month Swaps; Money Market Warning Signals
• Ron Paul Smacks Bob Schieffer on Face The Nation
• New Currency Controls in US at Currency Online; Capital Flight and Forced Repatriation in Europe

Official Denial in Greece Regarding "Indefinite Liquidity and Banking Stability"; Is a Worthless Guarantee Twice as Good When Doubled? Posted: 21 Nov 2011 05:33 PM PST Things are really humming along in Greece, complete with an official denial of instability in the Greek banking system. Please consider Government Doubles Bank Guarantees State guarantees to Greek commercial banks are to double from 30 billion to 60 billion euros in order to secure liquidity in the market, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told lawmakers in Athens on Monday. Addressing Parliament's Financial Affairs Committee, Venizelos said that ensuring the market's cash flow continues will secure the liquidity of the banking system and safeguard bank deposits. "The Greek banking system is guaranteed with indefinite liquidity and there is no issue with the stability of the system. This is the case for all eurozone countries," Venizelos said. "Official Denial" is Ominous The concept of official denial comes from British television sitcom, Yes, Minister. "The first rule of politics," Sir Humphrey, the wily civil servant in the show, insists is: "never believe anything until it is officially denied." In case you missed it please see Eurozone Breakup Logistics (Never Believe Anything Until It's Officially Denied) The statement by Venizelos "there is no issue with the stability of the system" is an ominous sign. So is the doubling of state "guarantees". The sane thing to do in Greece is immediately pull all your funds from Greek Banks. For further discussion, please see History Suggests Greece Will Freeze Bank Deposits, Exit Euro by Christmas; Spain and Portugal to Follow Next Year; What's the Rational Thing to Do? That is not a prediction, it is a statement saying "do not take any chances". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Mission Accomplished: Nothing; Kerry Says No Problem "Lawmakers Have a Year"; Boehner's, Pelosi's "Moral Obligations" Fly Out the Window; McCain's Hypocrisy; Look for US Debt Downgrades Posted: 21 Nov 2011 03:11 PM PST The official "deadline" for the alleged SuperCommitte to come to an agreement is November 23. However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), needs to have reached a deal today. The Super Wimps failed in their mission as anyone with any common sense might have guessed. There simply is no sense of urgency. This paragraph from the Bloomberg article Supercommittee Is Said to Be Poised to Announce Failure of Talks says all you need to know: Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, a Democrat on the panel, said lawmakers have a year before the automatic spending cuts are set to occur. "We have an election between now and then and a lot can take place," he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. Yes indeed, the real deadline is not tomorrow but rather 2013. A lot can happen by then, including a decision to not cut anything at all. Boehner's Moral Obligation Goes Out the Window Boehner, an Ohio Republican, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, have said they support the trigger. "The markets should know that the deficit reduction will occur," Pelosi said on Nov. 3. Boehner has said he "personally" feels a moral obligation to uphold the cuts. So much for Boehner's "Moral Obligations" and Pelosi's promise to do something. McCain Goes One Step Further McCain, even went one step further. Senator John McCain, an Arizona Republican, and Representative Maxine Waters, a California Democrat, are already trying to use legislative levers to stop the automatic cuts from taking effect. Cuts? Who Needs Cuts? Clearly McCain is a hypocrite. Were it not for an even worse setup in Europe, the US dollar would be taking a pounding here. Expect US Debt Downgrades Look for further downgrades of US debt by Moody's, Fitch, and S&P. To even things out, look for downgrades of France as well. "Super Committee" Idiocy Please consider what I had to say on July 25, 2011 in "Super Committee" is Super Idiocy Super Committee Nonsense I thought it was Tim Geithner who came up with the "Super Committee" idea but he was merely silly enough to latch on to it. The latest hare-brained scheme comes from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Majority Leader Harry Reid. Constitutional concerns aside, abdicating legislative responsibility to a super committee with super powers is idiotic. Besides didn't the Gang-of-Six just attempt to do something similar? And where did that plan go after a year of wrangling? Is a 12 man committee more likely to agree to something than a 6 man committee? Anyone who thinks so has mush for brains. Of course the whole idea might be to save face for both parties so that no one has to do anything but point fingers and blame the other side for lack of sensible action. Each passing day delivers more reasons to be disgusted with leaders of both parties. Mission a Brilliant Success, Achieves 100% of Its Goals The Super Committee accomplished nothing, as expected, and more importantly, as designed.  Neither political party really wanted to do anything about the deficit (because it would cost them votes). By D.C. standards this mission was a "brilliant success". It achieved its purpose, which was to do nothing. Both parties got the smoke-and-mirrors delay they wanted, while pointing fingers at the other side. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

"New Stress High in Our Indicators": Bond Spreads, CDS, Demand Deposits, Euro Basis 3-Month Swaps; Money Market Warning Signals Posted: 21 Nov 2011 11:06 AM PST Here are some charts and commentary from Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen. Via email, Steen writes ... We have a new stress high in our indicators. Core Europe is under pressure. In Europe the two new Super technocrats (Papademos and Monti) meets with EU officials over the course of next two days. Expect "compliance" to be the buzz-word, but Greek opposition party chief resists EU/IMF pressure on pledge: "…there is no need to provide written guarantee because his word can be trusted" There is rising concern about Greece, and with S&P down nearly 19 points on the open of Europe, it looks like a new level of alertness. So keep an eye out on ECB and its now massive support program – below is the Gross amount bought – the key this week is last week intervention size. Safe travels, Steen Jakobsen | Chief Economist ECB Securities Markets Programme (Bond Purchases‎) in Millions of Euros That's quite a bit given the ECB's insistence it will not be a lender of last resort. Last week there was much ado over nothing when the ECB said it would "limit" the amount of purchases to 20 billion Euros a week. The interventionists all complained. Did anyone bother to do the math on that? 20 billion euros * 52 = 1.04 trillion Euros and interventionists screamed bloody murder. Reuters says ECB keeps handbrake on as bond buys hit 8 billion euros. Handbrake Math, Intervention Math 8 billion euros * 52 = 416 billion Euros, nearly as big as the EFSF. Moral of the story: There is never enough intervention to suit interventionists. Why? Intervention never works. All it can do is create a bigger problem elsewhere. Stress Indicators Meanwhile please ponder these charts from Saxo Bank that form the basis of Steen's assertion "We have a new stress high in our indicators." click on any chart for sharper image France - Germany 10-Year Government Bond Spread Italy and Belgium 5-Year US$ CDS Italy and Greece Demand Deposits Denmark - Germany 10-Year Government Bond Spread Euro Basis 3-Month Swaps Money Market Warning Signals On November 3, there was an article in the Wall Street Journal that will help explain the significance of Euro Basis Swaps. Please consider Three-Month Euro Dollar Cross Currency Basis Swap Widens Swapping euros into dollars is becoming extremely expensive, according to a leading indicator that is at its widest level since December 2008. The three-month euro/dollar cross-currency basis swap is at minus 118 basis points versus minus 102 basis points on Wednesday. That's still shy of the minus-215 level it reached amid the financial turmoil of October 2008, but the indicator is now trading at levels where bankers say it is flashing warning signals about the functioning of money markets. The debt crisis in Europe has created stronger demand for dollars, making it more pricey to get access to such funding. Banks and other firms that operate globally and need dollars have had limited access to the greenback, as investors have been wary of lending to them, so they have been relying more heavily on the euro-dollar swap market to meet their financing needs. This route has become increasingly more costly for them. Traders say the three-month cross currency basis swap is showing greater stress than the one year swap because borrowers want to fund themselves past the end of the year. They also do not want to be seen as leaning on central banks for long-term funding, which is an option for them. The Euro Basis 3-Month Swap continues to widen, a clear sign of increasing stress. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Ron Paul Smacks Bob Schieffer on Face The Nation Posted: 21 Nov 2011 09:59 AM PST I used to have a modicum of respect for Bob Schieffer, host of Face the Nation. Not anymore. Instead of conducting an interview, Schieffer acted with clear intent to discredit Ron Paul. It backfired on Schieffer when Paul held his ground and refused to be cutoff by Schieffer's biased comments. Link if YouTube Video does not play: Ron Paul on Face the Nation Ron Paul supporters should check out and participate in Paul's SuperVoter Bomb. Any amount will help. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

New Currency Controls in US at Currency Online; Capital Flight and Forced Repatriation in Europe Posted: 21 Nov 2011 08:52 AM PST A securities analyst sent a note this morning "I just received this today from a company I have used for 3 years." He was referring to a memo from Currency Online regarding Restriction of our service to USA based clients Regrettably I write to inform you that, due to changes in legislation, we will be unable to continue to offer our international money transfer services to clients located in the United States of America (USA). As a result, any existing transactions that you have outstanding with Currency Online will be completed in the normal way, however you will be unable to undertake any new transfers. Below we have anticipated some of the questions you may ask. Should you have any further questions please email us at customercare@currencyonline.com or call us on our free phone number 1866 420 7697. Q: Can I still access my online account? A: Yes. While you will be unable to undertake further FX transactions with Currency Online, you can still log into your account and have full access to review funds held on account plus any current and historical transactions. Q: What happens to my existing FX transactions? A: Simply complete the contract as normal. Please ensure you deliver your funds by the agreed value date and we will pay your purchased funds to the nominated beneficiary. Q: What do I do if I have a Market Order in place? A: As the outcome of a market order is an FX transaction we will unfortunately need to cancel any outstanding Market Orders you have. We shall, if we have not already done so, be calling you directly. Q: What if I am no longer located in the USA? A: Simply provide us with your new proof of address and you will be able to continue to use our services as normal. Once again, please accept our sincere apologies for any inconvenience this may cause. We will of course let you know should we resume our services to US based clients. In the meantime, we thank you for your support and understanding. The team at Currency Online Capital Flight and Forced Repatriation in Europe Bruce Krasting had an excellent article over the weekend on ZeroHedge regarding Capital Flight and Forced Repatriation Put yourself in the mind of a Greek who had some savings in a local bank. What would you do? You would do whatever you could to get your money to high ground. It would be perfectly reasonable for you to do that. And that is exactly what the Greeks have done. They've moved billions of Euros to Swiss banks in an effort to preserve their wealth. In the process they have crippled the Greek banks and have added to the downward spiral in Greece and the rest of the EU. There was (IMHO) a very significant development on this front last week. A move is being made in Brussels to "force" the Swiss government/banks to transfer all of the assets of Greek citizens back to the Greek banks. For a Greek this means that your money is hostage. It has been functionally expropriated. It will be transferred into a banking system that is fraught with risk. Some portion of the money that goes back to Greece will certainly be lost. I have talked with some who I know in Athens. They are out of their minds with this development. BRUSSELS — The European Commission is helping Greece negotiate an agreement with Switzerland to repatriate as much as $81 billion believed to be hidden in Swiss bank accounts, a high level European Union executive body official said Nov. 17. $81 billion? That's massive. This is not the shopkeeper or pensioner. This is big bucks and that means the Greek shippers. It is a fact that the Greek government doesn't tax the foreign earnings of the shippers. Call that a mistake, but that is the law. As a result, the shippers have held huge bucks in Switzerland. It's not dirty money. Right or wrong, there was no legal tax on this. The European Commission is working with Switzerland and Greece stop what it believes is an ongoing exodus of money from Greek bank accounts into Swiss and other offshore banking centers, the EU official said. The only way to stop capital flight is to address the underlying causes of the flight. That can't happen in Greece for years. The alternative is to trap the money, force it to go where it is at most risk. The owner of the money will have no choice. Any rights they might have to preserve their assets will be abrogated. I'm amazed at this development. The Swiss government/banks are obligated to cooperate with EU tax authorities when there is evidence of tax fraud. But that is not what this is about. The people in Brussels and Bern know that. The fact is that the Greek tax system is so screwed up that there simply are no taxes levied on certain types of income/capital (the shippers). No doubt, some of the Greek cash that is in Switzerland is there because of tax avoidance. But the vast majority is simply safe haven money. The word "Repatriation" sounds nice enough but really it means "Theft and expropriation". There will be nothing voluntary about this. There will be little (if any) due process. If you have money in Greek banks, get it out now. If it's a small amount put it under the mattress. If it's a large amount, I am not sure where to tell you to put given pressure on Switzerland and illegal requests from the EU. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610