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luni, 5 decembrie 2011
The clock is ticking
Competitor Analysis and Benchmarking With the New Domain and Page Authorities
Competitor Analysis and Benchmarking With the New Domain and Page Authorities |
| Competitor Analysis and Benchmarking With the New Domain and Page Authorities Posted: 04 Dec 2011 12:48 PM PST Posted by dohertyjf As we all read last week, SEOmoz has released the second Linkscape index update of November, and with that came updated Domain Authority and Page Authority. Many of you probably noticed a change, either as a result of the broader crawl, or as a result of active linkbuilding you have been doing on your site or client sites. The purpose of this post is to help us orientate ourselves around what our scores mean and how those might compare to other sites that we are aware of. Remember, Domain Authority and Page Authority are strictly link based, so the metrics can be influenced by either more links from more sites, or a few links from higher quality sites. One should remember, however, that Domain Authority and Page Authority are hard to directly influence, as they are a combination of 30+ data points and work on a logarithmic scale. As Matt Peters noted in his blog post called "Introducing SEOmoz's Updated Page Authority and Domain Authority": Page and Domain Authority are machine learning ranking models that predict the likelihood of a single page or domain to rank in search results, regardless of page content. Their input is the 41 link metrics available in our Linkscape URL Metrics API call and their output is a score on a scale from 1 to 100. They are keyword agnostic because they do not use any information about the page content. What I want to do here is provide you a framework through which to benchmark your site against others in your niche. I'm going to take a mashup of tools that are already available so that you can go forth and figure out if you have any new competitors in your SERPs (Search Engine Results Pages). Then you can go forward and dig deeper into those sites in your own way to decide how to beat them. Let's go! Where Do I Start?The first step to take is deciding which keywords you want to rank for. For the sake of a more complete view of your market's landscape and SERP competitors, I recommend finding at least 20 keywords that would be very valuable for you. I've taken fewer for the sake of brevity, so here are the keywords I am going to be using for this example: First Tool - Tom Anthony's Competitive Analysis ToolSome months ago Tom Anthony, one of our London SEO consultants (who grows a wicked mustache, by the way), dropped a tool that he says can help you do competitive analysis in under 60 seconds with the SEOmoz API. Take your keywords and plug them into the tool. You will receive rows of data on your competitors and will be able to see how your site lines up. For the keywords above, this is the data that we see in the sheet: Full disclosure: I have no affiliation with any of the sites listed above, other than I buy from some of them periodically. Note - you will need to make a copy of it and get your own SEOmoz API key in order for this to work for you. Full directions on how to set up the sheet are available on the original post as well. What is important to get out of this list is the list of competitors. From the data provided as well, you can see relatively where your site stands for the search results (or by simply including your site at the bottom of the list and enlarging the sheet to include your metrics as well). Using the above metrics, if I was doing SEO for skichalet.com, I can see that my competitors to beat directly above me are the-house and Cabelas, but really I am gunning for Backcountry.com and REI.com, and I want to know how they are winning. Let's take this a step further and see why our competitors have a higher Page Authority or Domain Authority. PA Correlation (thanks to Dr Pete)Now that you have your competitor's DA and PA, and know roughly where you stand compared to them, you can begin to dissect why their PA or DA is so high. Remember, your metrics can be improved by either a) more links from more sites, or b) a few links from more authoritative sites. If you want to know why your competitor is beating you, I recommend using the spreadsheet in this awesome post about Link Profiling with OpenSiteExplorer. This sheet is useful because, according to Matt Peters, Page Authority is the highest correlated metric against a page's ability to rank well (from a link perspective). This sheet will give you a graph of the average Page Authorities of the sites linking to your competitors. After you have taken the data dump from OSE and plugged it into (LINK) the sheet, you will get a graph that looks like this: If you want to see your competitors distribution compared with yours, use this sheet, which will show you the two side-by-side like so: Using this, you can see that while your spread may be similar, the competitor on the left has many more linking root domains (the scale is much broader). That's where you need to start. DA CorrelationYou may also find it helpful to see the overall strength of the sites from which your competitors are getting links and the spread of those Domain Authorities across their backlink profile. For this purpose, I built a spreadsheet based off the PA Tool from Dr Pete above. The steps are exactly the same, but instead of the Page Authority graph you receive the Domain Authority graph: Right here you may come up against a shortcoming of OSE, in that with sites that have a lot of linking root domains you may not be able to get the lower DA links. So watch out for this. You can grab the Domain Authority Sheet right here. Final Secret Sauce - SERP Analysis Report + ExcelFinally, now that you have gotten a quick overall look at your competitors and know where you stand and what certain domain and page authorities mean for ranking in your niche, you'll want to make this actionable. The above graphs do not go specific enough to be very actionable, so now let's use the SERP Analysis Report (available in the Keyword Difficulty Tool) to put the data for your specific keywords individually (that you used at the beginning to begin finding your SERP competitors) A while back I presented a spreadsheet that allows you to take the SEOmoz SERP Analysis Report and dump it into an Excel sheet, which then gives you a bunch of graphs showing you where your site is weak. I'd be remiss to not say that I took this idea from Jason over at BusinessHut who gave away the original spreadsheet before the SERP Analysis Tool existed. You can read the full explanation of this sheet over at my site in the post called Making SEOmoz's SERP Analysis Tool More Awesome, but essentially what you can do with this sheet is:
Maybe you'll find that your overall number of linking root domains is way low compared to the others in your SERP: Or maybe you'll see that your on-page targeting is off (which is great since DA and PA are only links based. Now you get a better site picture): Get the spreadsheet here. I hope this post has been helpful for you in finding where you compare against your competitors. Knowing approximately what the benchmarks are for your niche can really help with speedy link prospecting and qualifying your site against others. For those of you who are interested, here are some popular sites and their Domain Authorities, just for a quick snapshot of the web at large:
Websites taken from Rob Ousbey's post and the Getstat Codex. |
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Seth's Blog : Tools vs insight
Tools vs insight
How is your vocabulary? It's a vital tool, certainly. Do you know these words?
a, after, and, as, die, eternal, first, gets, gun, have, in, is, job, life, me, mouth, my, pushing, saying, step, that, the, to, Tyler, waiter, you.
How about these?
a, am, and, anywhere, are, be, boat, box, car, could, dark, do, eat, eggs, fox, goat, good, green, ham, here, house, I, if, in, let, like, may, me, mouse, not, on, or, rain, Sam, say, see, so, thank, that, the, them, there, they, train, tree, try, will, with, would, you.
The first list contains every word in the opening lines from Fight Club, the second is the entire word list from Green Eggs and Ham. Of course, neither you nor I wrote either of these, regardless of how well trained we are in what the words (the tools) mean.
Knowing about a tool is one thing. Having the guts to use it in a way that brings art to the world is another. Perhaps we need to spend less time learning new tools and more time using them.
More Recent Articles
- The economics of Christmas lights
- The erosion in the paid media pyramid
- Didn't get the joke
- Four stages of the game
- Preparing for the breakthrough/calamity
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duminică, 4 decembrie 2011
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- After Two Horrendous Articles, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Back on Track: "Germany is the Ultimate Victim of EMU"
- Monti's "Save Italy" Package Sure to Cause "Super Recession"
- Detroit Poised for Hostile Takeover by State of Michigan; What Needs to Be Done to Fix Detroit
- Banks Make $13 Billion on $7.7 Trillion in Secret Fed Loans; SEC Stands by Does Nothing
- Commerzbank Desperately Needs Money; Der Spiegel Reports "Germany Considers Nationalization of Commerzbank"; First of Many Nationalizations
- Earnings Outlook Deteriorates Rapidly; Reduced Forecasts Greatest in 10 Years; Don't Worry Companies Will Still "Beat the Street"
| Posted: 04 Dec 2011 10:28 PM PST I took Ambrose Evans-Pritchard to task twice recently, primarily for making monetary proposals claiming central banks could print their way out of this economic mess but also for unwarranted attacks on Germany. My friend Pater Tenebrarum has done the same. Here are a few articles. Mish: Has Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Lost His Mind? Mish: We Must Crush Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Nouriel Roubini, Martin Wolf, the Army of Krugmanites into Submission; Reflections on "Dangerous and Insane" Pater: Central Banks and Monetary Cranks Pater: The ECB and 'Balance Sheet Recessions' Here are a few snips from Pater's Balance Sheet Recession link above. If government debt is at some point monetized on a grand scale, there will eventually also come a point when the demand for money is overwhelmed by the increase in its supply. The supporters of money printing, such as e.g. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who has just penned another screed calling for ECB intervention, seem oblivious to this fact. Even if they are not au fait with economic theory, they should at least not pretend that Weimar never happened. After all, what is the central bank supposed to do when the effects of its intervention wear off, as they invariably do? Why, print more of course – until the bitter end, one presumes.I have also commented many times previously on how Koo has learned nothing in 20 years. The lesson of Japan is not what Koo suggests (more firepower), but rather forcing banks to take writedowns. The amazing thing about the Japanese situation is that Greenspan and Bernanke both made statements that Japan should write down bad debts, but when the US faced the same situation, Bernanke not only did the opposite, but now says that letting Lehman collapse was his biggest mistake. Excuse me! Letting Lehman collapse was the only thing Bernanke did correct. I might also point out the world did not end. Anyway back to Pritchard. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Back on Track Please consider Germany is the ultimate victim of EMU by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Ambrose: Enough is enough. Please stop defaming Germany out there in the blogosphere. Mish: Since Ambrose cannot not mean me, perhaps he means himself. Regardless, I certainly agree. Ambrose: The German people entered monetary union for honourable motives, believing they were acting as good Europeans. It is excruciating for them to see those Athens banners in Syntagma Square showing Chancellor Angela Merkel wearing the Swastika, or read that sign "Arbeit Macht Frei". They gave up the D-Mark reluctantly under French and Italian pressure, as the price for acquiescence in Reunification. They entered EMU at an overvalued rate after the Reunification bubble, leaving them in semi-slump for half a decade. They slowly clawed back competitiveness the hard way, by squeezing wages and driving up productivity. It is entirely understandable that they now think Club Med can and should do the same. (They are profoundly wrong, of course, because Germany was able to lower relative wages during a) a global boom, b) against other EMU states that were inflating c) and with benchmark borrowing cost that stayed low even during the dog days. None of these factors apply to Italy or Spain now. But this is hard to explain this to the man or woman on the Berlin tram.) Mish: I am in general agreement. Previously I wrote "Pritchard clearly has it in for Germany. Why I do not know." The above article shows otherwise. However, many people emailed in agreement. Will the above article change perceptions? Perhaps not. Pritchard has been a big German basher recently. Pritchard: She [Merkel] is entirely right in one sense to continue ruling out Eurobonds as "unthinkable" under current structures, and a violation of German constitution, but that is not really an answer to the historical challenge that she faces in late 2011. Germany cannot unwind the clock. It did take the fateful step of joining monetary union, and from that awful error follows a string of strategic imperatives. As the wise professors warned at the time, EMU would lead ineluctably to full fiscal union because an orphan currency would not endure without an EU Treasury and government to back it up, but it would a fiscal union accountable to nobody, because no European democracy exists, or can exist. It would lead to debt pooling and shared budgets. It would lead – fatally – to loss of the Bundestag's sovereign powers to tax and spend. The core functions of parliament would slip away to EU mandarins. It would lead to the emasculation of Germany's exemplary post-War democracy. It would lead in essence to the abolition of Germany as a nation state, even if the window flowers remained in place. All else was illusion and wishful thinking. Mish: Precisely. And as I have asked before, Who made the rules? Whose fault is it that Germany was pressured to join the Euro? Did the 17 countries know the rules when they joined? Whose fault is it that 17 countries joined? To partially answer the first question Jean-Claude Trichet was one of the architects. Perhaps we should blame France. Here are a couple of interesting European Monetary Union References to further assist in placing blame: Otmar Issuing, Chief Economist of the German Bundesbank Council, 1991: "There is no example in history of a lasting monetary union that was not linked to one State." John Major, British Conservative politician, Prime Minister 1991-1997, widely viewed as a failure and famous mainly for calling Eurosceptics bastards and shagging Edwina Currie. November 1996: "A single currency is about the politics of Europe. It is about a Federal Europe by the back door." Perhaps we should place some blame on John Major and the UK. How about this quote? Romano Prodi, EU Commission President [an Italian Statesman]. Interview in the Financial Times, April 1999: "[My] real goal [is to draw on] the consequences of the single currency and create a political Europe." Yes, indeed. The REAL GOAL was a political Europe that the German people did not want! What else did Prodi say? Romano Prodi, EU Commission President, speech to European Parliament, 13th October 1999: "We must now face the difficult task of moving forward towards a single economy, a single political entity... For the first time since the fall of the Roman Empire we have the opportunity to unite Europe." Romano Prodi, EU Commission President. Financial Times, 4 December 2001: "I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created." Here is one from Wim Duisenburg, President of the European Central Bank. Date uncertain. Note the choice of words "was always meant to be", which communicates a false inevitability: "The process of monetary union goes hand in hand, must go hand in hand, with political integration and ultimately political union. EMU is, and always was meant to be, a stepping stone on the way to a united Europe." The idea the Euro is a German hatched plot to control Europe is patently false. Most German citizens (though unfortunately not all German politicians were extremely leery of a fiscal union and loss of sovereignty which is precisely why they insisted on a set of exact controls in the Maastricht Treaty to prevent the formation of a fiscal transfer union. Pritchard: That is what monetary union always meant and means now, though the trick being played on Europe's citizens was fudged by dishonest treaties, themselves dishonestly ratified. It is why so many of us on this side of the Ärmelkanal have fought tooth and nail for twenty years to stop Britain being subsumed into this plaything of unaccountable elites, this Project so profoundly threatening to our self-government and constitutional order. Mish: "dishonest treaties, themselves dishonestly ratified" Hello Ambrose - you are 100% correct. So why the hell did you throw that all away with two recent articles? How about taking them back, right here, right now? Ambrose: But this is where Germany now is. It must either immolate itself and dismantle the Bismarckian state for the cause of EMU, or prepare to finance an orderly withdrawal from monetary union (with the Finns, Dutch, and Austrians) so that the South can breathe again and hope to recover. That is the choice. All else is can-kicking, denial, obfuscation, muddle, and self-delusion. As is now becoming obvious, the failure to resolve the matter one way or the other is becoming a danger to the global financial system. It threatens to uncork a global depression. Germany must at last decide. It is a horrible choice. My sympathies go to the German people who were never given a vote on this ensnarement and infeudation of their peaceful country, and who were egregiously deceived by their own leaders, and who cannot now begin to understand why they suddenly are target of such furious and venomous global criticism. The Germans too are victims of this ruinous project, the greatest victims of all. Their elites have led them into a diplomatic and economic Stalingrad. Mish: Exactly! All else, including Pritchard's horrendous idea You are all wrong, printing money can halt Europe's crisis is an exercise in can-kicking! Ambrose, we both know Germany is going to pay a price. Indeed every country in Europe is going to pay a price, even the UK. The idea is to make that price as small as possible. To do that we need an orderly (as orderly as possible) breakup of the EMU. The UK can help. UK Should Exit the EU The UK can start the ball rolling in the proper direction by exiting the EU. Why should UK citizens pay through the nose for inane trade regulations especially on agricultural goods? The UK needs to send a statement that it has had enough. If France wants protectionist agricultural policies then France, not the UK should suffer the consequences. Those who do not know what I am talking about can find a nice example in UK facing £20m garlic tax bill The UK Government has received a European Commission ultimatum to hand over £20 million within two months or face legal action. The wrangle is over the fact that import tariffs on frozen garlic from outside the EU are lower than the rates for fresh garlic. And, according to the Commission, UK authorities carelessly levied the lower rate applicable to frozen garlic on imports of the fresh product from China, in breach of EU customs rules.Why put up with this? What on God's green earth does the UK get for these endless regulations other than higher prices and direct subsidies to French farmers? John Law Mississippi Bubble I also need to point out one major historical item that Pritchard seems to have forgotten about when he proposed his can-kicking printing solution. I invite everyone to read about John Law and the Mississippi Bubble: 1718-1720. In 1716 Law convinced the French government to let him open a bank, the Bank Generale, that could issue paper money, or bank notes. The paper notes would be supported by the bank's assets of gold and silver and would circulate as a medium of exchange. Paper money was a new concept for the French; money to them was silver and gold. Law believed that paper notes would increase the money in circulation, which, in turn, would increase commerce. These conditions would help revitalize and rehabilitate the finances of the French government.Please read the article to see how printing paper money to revitalize the French economy ended. Germany Needs to Exit EMU The best solution for the EMU is for Germany to leave. If France wants the Euro it can have it. Let France have the ECB and let France print if it wants to. Perhaps the result will be better than last time. Regardless, It will be far less disruptive for Germany to leave than for Greece, then Portugal, then Spain to leave. Either way, German banks take a hit. So do French banks and any banks in general holding debts in Euros. However, the Deutschmark would be a credible currency right off the bat. That makes it less disruptive for Germany to leave rather than Greece, Portugal, and Spain to leave. Those countries have no credible currencies to go back to. Please see Eurozone Breakup Logistics (Never Believe Anything Until It's Officially Denied) for further discussion of why things are better if Germany leaves rather than a piecemeal breakup. Reflections on Credibility We need to discuss Eurozone breakup ideas, not mindless printing schemes that will do nothing but kick the can down the road, bailing out the banks, and leaving the taxpayers saddled with the debt or the inflation (or both). Pritchard lost a lot of credibility in those two recent articles I blasted. His latest article, referenced above helps, but a complete retraction of his can-kicking monetary printing proposal would help even more. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Monti's "Save Italy" Package Sure to Cause "Super Recession" Posted: 04 Dec 2011 08:16 PM PST Super Mario has a five-point plan to "Save Italy".
The above package was dubbed the "Save Italy" package by Prime Minister Mario Monti. Supposedly it will boost growth. While I agree pension reform is much needed, there is not a single thing in the package to boost growth. Italy is in recession. Raising taxes in a recession is the last thing you want to do, yet four of Monti's five ideas raise taxes. This proposal may temporarily placate the bond market, but Italy is headed for one "super recession" if Mario's mix of idiotic tax hikes passes. Instead, Italy needs to cut wasteful government spending and lower taxes. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Detroit Poised for Hostile Takeover by State of Michigan; What Needs to Be Done to Fix Detroit Posted: 04 Dec 2011 03:06 PM PST Detroit Mayor Dave Bing is upset about a possible takeover by the state. Bing says "We know what needs to be done, and we stand ready to do it." I have a simple suggestion for Bing don't "stand ready to do it, just do it". Indeed he has had years to "just do it" yet hasn't done it. Please consider Detroit in a hostile takeover bid? The idea is extreme, even in a city accustomed to fighting for survival: Should the state of Michigan step in to run Detroit?Bing Hasn't Done It Because He Can't Union rules and contracts prevent Bing from doing what needs to be done. Moreover, I doubt he would do it even if he could. Last month Bing declared city government "broken". Sheeesh. Detroit has been broken and bankrupt for years, decades probably, but certainly for the entire time Bing has been mayor. I have written about Detroit on many occasions. June 12, 2009: Median Home Prices In Detroit Fall To $6,000 Although I am a deflationist, I must admit surprise that the median home price in Detroit has fallen to a stunningly low $6,000. July 11, 2009: Detroit Public School System Ponders Bankruptcy Freep is reporting the Detroit Public School System May Wind Up In Bankruptcy. July 24, 2009: Detroit Heads For Bankruptcy; 50 Cities Must "Shrink to Survive" For Detroit, as with GM, bankruptcy has always been a question of when, not if. Detroit's time is nearly up even as Mayor Dave Bing says I'm fighting to keep city from going broke.April 6, 2010: Detroit Bankruptcy Looms with Deficit of $446 Million in Budget of $1.6 Billion Detroit has hit the end of the line. It's budget deficit is between $446 million and $466 million (28% to 29%) of $1.6 billion with few ways other than drastic cuts in wages and benefits to address the problem. If unions will not give in (and they won't), Detroit Faces Bankruptcy.December 13, 2010: Detroit Mayor Plans to Halt Garbage Pickup, Police Patrols in 20% of City Detroit has been bankrupt for years. It simply refuses to admit it. Detroit's schools are bankrupt as well. A mere 25% of students graduate from high school.November 16, 2011: Detroit May Run Out of Cash Next Month, Unable to Meet Payroll, Situation Worse than Reported Michigan Live reports Detroit could run out of cash in December, plan must include layoffsEnough Already! Will someone, anyone please put Detroit out of its misery. Bing cannot do it. Only a complete overhaul stands a chance. What Needs to Be Done
It will take a hostile takeover and very tough positioning by Republican Governor Rick Snyder. He has the votes. Does he have the political courage? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Banks Make $13 Billion on $7.7 Trillion in Secret Fed Loans; SEC Stands by Does Nothing Posted: 04 Dec 2011 09:46 AM PST On November 27, Bloomberg reported Secret Fed Loans Gave Banks $13 Billion Undisclosed to Congress The Federal Reserve and the big banks fought for more than two years to keep details of the largest bailout in U.S. history a secret. Now, the rest of the world can see what it was missing.Citigroup, Bank of America, RBS, Wells Fargo Top Recipients The Bloomberg article has a nice interactive graphic that details how much each bank profited. Citigroup made $1.8 Billion, Bank of America made $1.5 billion, Royal Bank of Scotland made $1.2 Billion, and Wells Fargo made $878 million. Those are the top four. SEC Stands by Does Nothing Yesterday, Gretchen Morgenson at the New York Times commented on the Bloomberg report in Secrets of the Bailout, Now Told A FRESH account emerged last week about the magnitude of financial aid that the Federal Reserve bestowed on big banks during the 2008-09 credit crisis. The report came from Bloomberg News, which had to mount a lengthy legal fight to wrest documents from the Fed that detailed its rescue efforts.Yes indeed. What an idea. Unfortunately there are two sets of rules, one set for big financial players and another set for everyone else. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 04 Dec 2011 09:18 AM PST Via Google Translate [with some minor tweaks by me where obvious], Spiegel Online reports Federal Government is considering nationalization of Commerzbank After the end of 2008, the institute plunged into the vortex of the financial crisis and needed financial assistance. The federal government holds 25 percent plus one share. Germany wanted Commerzbank CEO Martin Blessing to be independent again as quickly as possible . But now SPIEGEL reports information the contrary, that the federal government does not rule out the nationalization of Commerzbank.Commerzbank Desperately Needs Money In a separate article Spiegel Online reports Commerzbank considers selling daughter bank € Hypo Commerzbank desperately needs money in order to guard against the debt crisis in Europe. Now the bank is considering, according to a newspaper report, to sell his daughter € Hypo - to the state. In the deal, the bank would have suffered a considerable loss.First of Many Nationalizations Should Commerzbank be nationalized, it will likely be the first of many major nationalizations. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 04 Dec 2011 02:10 AM PST In a game of "beat the street" companies and analysts are busy downgrading corporate earnings. By the time earnings are reported, companies will "beat the street" on those carefully downgraded estimates. Please consider Earnings outlook may be deteriorating rapidly Earnings season is just over a month away, but the early signals are not comforting.Don't Worry Companies Will Still "Beat the Street" On August 17, 2011 I wrote Earnings Collapse Coming Up; Don't Worry Companies Will Still "Beat the Street"; Value Traps and Road to Ruin Of all the inept reasons to be bullish about equities, "beat the street" hype is near the top of the list. The fact is, in aggregate, ever since Reg-FD (full disclosure) companies always beat the street.The above chart from Understandings Earnings Estimates by James Bianco on the Big Picture Blog. Christmas sales may be up, but what about profits? It is taking bigger and bigger discounts to excite customers. Car sales are up, but it is important to note that shipments to dealers are counted as "sales". Dealer inventories are at record highs. It will take discounts to move them. Employers are generally running pretty lean as hiring sure did not pick up. Reduced sales and reduced margins will also cut into profits unless employers shed more workers. Higher energy prices will take a toll unless companies can pass along the costs. Here's a hint: most can't. There is little pricing power anywhere. But hey, don't worry. Companies will beat the street. They have every quarter since 1998. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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