Central Perk

joi, 8 decembrie 2011

We Are Not Giving Up

Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, Dec. 8, 2011

We Are Not Giving Up

This morning, Senate Republicans blocked the confirmation of Richard Cordray as the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Shortly after, President Obama addressed the vote in a press briefing:

So I just want to send a message to the Senate: We are not giving up on this. We're going to keep on going at it. We are not going to allow politics as usual on Capitol Hill to stand in the way of American consumers being protected by unscrupulous financial operators.

Watch President Obama's remarks:

Social Media Metrics: Not as Difficult as You Thought

Posted: 07 Dec 2011 01:40 PM PST

Posted by jennita

When was the last time you were asked, “So what’s our average growth rate on Facebook?” Err... Whether it’s a client, a boss, or the CEO of the company, you get questions like this. Ok so perhaps you’ve never heard this exact question, but I can pretty much bet that you’ve heard something similar. They want to know how your social media efforts are doing; they want to know that you’re tracking key performance indicators. But social media isn’t as simple as “track these numbers and *poof* you’ve got it all figured out.”

Determining KPIs

Every social media marketer struggles with which KPIs are the best to track. We know as marketers that having metrics to guide you and measure progress against is super important, yet here we still stand somewhat weary of what to keep an eye on.

While there are many posts out there telling you the absolute best metrics to track in social media marketing, I’d like to take a different approach. Saying there is a top list of metrics we should all blindly collect for collection sake is a dangerous way to approach social media tracking. In fact, I feel strongly that every organization will likely want to keep a close eye on slightly different metrics throughout the lifetime of their social efforts.

I know that throughout my time at Moz, I have paid attention to a number of different social KPIs; some of them are always there, and some of them are project-based. My tracking process has evolved with our social media marketing, so I don’t feel comfortable telling you there is a one-size fits all formula for social media marketing KPIs.

However, what I can get behind is the idea there are pieces to social that need to be measured in an ongoing way to help us better understand the health of our social media efforts. Here at Moz, we wanted to integrate social analytics into our PRO software for this exact reason -- to help inbound marketers better know the health of their social media marketing efforts.

What Makes Your Social Efforts Healthy?

When I manage social here at Moz, I am always pushing for four things - growth, engagement, momentum, and results. What those four words mean to your social efforts versus mine might be completely different. However, the new social dashboard we’ve launched is there to help every marketer measure those four pillars more effectively. Let me run through each and give them a little more shape. But when it comes right down to it I truly believe, if you can check in on these four pieces and see progress, your social media marketing efforts are going well.

What Do I Mean by Growth?

I know, I know... everyone always tells you that it’s not the number of followers that count, and for the most part, I agree with this sentiment. However, while it’s not the size that matters most, it’s a great starting point and base to measure your growth. Often times, this is the number that your boss or client (or whoever) cares about.

In about five seconds, I can track the growth of both my Twitter and Facebook accounts, download the data into a csv to track, or show an exact screenshot in my weekly/monthly report. BOOM.

What Do I Mean by Engagement?

“Social media is about engagement.” How many times do you hear that one? Well, it’s true. If you’re not out there engaging with your audience (and vice versa), then what in the heck are you doing? This isn’t the place to go into all the details around how to do that, but I want to show you how easily you can track retweets, mentions, and replies over a given time period.

Do you follow the SEOmoz twitter account? If so, you probably see that we engage with the community quite a bit. To us, monitoring the level of engagement is much more meaningful than how many followers we have. We want to see that our efforts are engaging the community and that our community feels they’re heard and are a part of the greater conversation.

Social analytics in Moz will continue to grow with this in mind. We want to show you not simply that there is activity, but whether it’s valuable activity. What you see right now is simply the starting point. :)

What Do I Mean by Momentum?

Whee! To me this is the fun one. Sure, sure, sure the numbers may increase, but showing that the increase each week is gaining momentum is far more important. This is why we track KPIs: to show momentum. You want to see that percentage increase go up!

What Do I Mean by Results?

As social media marketers, we’ve had to defend our efforts and worth since the beginning. What does a tweet do for us? What does an engaged conversation on Facebook do for the company’s bottom line? What is the lifetime value of a new set of engaged eyes? Whew... these are hard things to figure out. There are lots of tools out there trying to nail this down.

This is where Moz social analytics comes in... we track your traffic from social media sources. All you have to do is hook your campaign up to GA (which if you have a campaign already you’ve probably already hooked up GA).

Social analytics is our first step in this direction. We aren’t hoping to be your social management platform; we realize that is not where our strength as a company lies. Instead, we have data. We have a slew of data, and we get inbound marketing. We hope to show you how all of your time spent on social actually has worth. We’ve started with traffic. We wanted to show which of your social efforts are resulting in more traffic. This is a great place to start.

So Where Does Moz Go From Here?

We have a goal here to show marketers important data to help them better prioritize their time. Time is a precious thing. We hope that our first stab at social analytics gets you closer to knowing how well your social media management is doing right now and help you better allocate your efforts in the future. We realize the limitations of our first launch, and we would love any requests/feedback/freak outs you have. Once you get a chance to check out the social analytics, please take a second to fill out this quick survey as this will help us build exactly what you want.

In the meantime, get on in there and check it out. No better time to start collecting this data than now.

Do you like this post? Yes No

A One-Stop SEO Bookmarklet to Quickly Review On-Site SEO

Posted: 07 Dec 2011 03:53 AM PST

Posted by twkm

This post was originally in YOUmoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc.

Shortly before Tom Critchlow's excellent post on using Javascript bookmarklets to help make us more efficient in our jobs as SEOs I had begun work on a bookmarklet that lets me review a variety of on- and off-page SEO factors at a glance without having to leave the page I am looking at.

I wanted something that could quickly tell me how the page title and meta description tags are formatted, how the heading elements are used, and give me access to more external tools for every page I review. Without having to search through the source code.

Tom asked me to share it here, and I assured him I would once it was polished. Well, I'm happy to say that I have now polished it to a point where I feel comfortable sharing it with all of you here at SEOmoz! It has saved me a ton of time already and I hope that it helps you out as well.

Here's a shot of the bookmarklet in action:

A screenshot of the SEO Bookmarklet in action

Install It

Just drag this bookmarklet to your bookmarks bar => SEO

If you want to create it manually you can copy the code below. You will need to create the bookmarklet manually on your iPad, where it is very useful for quickly looking at on-page SEO factors while on the go or sitting in front of a client.

javascript:(function(){var d=document,z=d.createElement('scr'+'ipt'),b=d.body;try{if(!b)throw(0);z.setAttribute('src','http://twkm.ca/min/f=gadgets/resources/seo-bookmarklet/seo-0.1.js');z.setAttribute('id','twkmSEOScript');b.appendChild(z);}catch(e){alert('Please wait until the page has loaded.');}}());

There is also a "Bleeding Edge" version of the SEO Bookmarklet that will receive new features and updates before the "stable" version. You can get more information about installing that one at my blog.

Enjoy the bookmarklet, and let me know in the comments if you have any questions or suggestions.

The Full List of Features

The bookmarklet is broken into four main sections, and each can be hidden or expanded by clicking the title:

On-Page Factors
- Title tag length and value
- Meta description tag length and value
- Count of <img> tags with the alt attribute set, and total number of tags on the page
- Count of <a> tags with the title attribute set, and total number of tags on the page
- Count of heading elements from h1 to h3 on the page
- Whether or not sitemap.xml and robots.txt files are present in the root folder of the domain (i.e. "www.seomoz.org/sitemap.xml" or "www.seomoz.org/robots.txt")
- Whether or not rel=canonical or meta robots tags are present, and what their values are
- The site cookie
- The referral URL to the current page
- A set of links that will perform various tasks on the page, such as the SEOmoz Term Extractor, the W3C Link Checker, and others
Research and Intelligence Tools
- Open Site Explorer links for the current page and current domain
- An historic backlink graph for the site
- Access to the Google AdWords keyword tool
- and links to research and market intelligence resources
External Tools
- De-personalize Google results pages
- Get Whois data from GoDaddy
- View past versions of the page you're viewing through the Internet Archive's Wayback Machine
Text Length Checker
- Paste a chunk of text in the text box to find out how many characters are present

Do you like this post? Yes No

SEOptimise

The Ultimate Guide to Securing a Job in Social Media, SEO & PPC

Posted: 07 Dec 2011 04:01 AM PST

There are many misconceptions about the kind of skills and traits you need in order to find a job within the Search Engine and Social Media Marketing Industry (hereinafter referred to as 'SE & SMM Industry'). In order to dispel most of these misconceptions and to provide a guide-like resource to anyone looking to make their first step into the world of search and social, I have listed eight tips that would keep you in good stead in your job search including how to answer the dreaded "what prior experience do you have in Search and Social Media Marketing?" question.

Tip # 1 – Turn the darn news off!

How many of us have heard of how bleak the current climate is in terms of employment for new graduates? Almost every day I see depressing stats thrown about on news sites. So please do yourself a favour and turn a Nelsonian eye on all the negativity regarding current unemployment levels. Why is this important? It's important because you reflect the state you're in to potential employers. You want to portray the best version of 'you' to them. Negative stories on the media only reinforce the belief that you will not secure a job (which obviously isn't true).

Tip #2 – Learn industry jargon

The first thing that intimidates most people from absolutely anything is the unfamiliarity of a situation, a place or a group. This is true for the SE & SMM industry as well. We tend to use a lot of industry jargon to sound cleverer than we actually are. So for anyone not familiar with commonly used phrases and terms, this industry may seem quite intimidating.

For example read the following terms:

rel=”canonical”
Sitemaps
301 redirect
Panda update
GWT
Robots.txt

If you don't have a clue about what these words mean don't think, "Oh man! This industry isn't for me!" rather, make a note of these terms and find out their meanings. In times like these, the mantra I take solace in is "every expert was once a beginner". So even today, there are times when I end up at meetings where I don't understand what some people say. The key is to not be intimidated but to learn these terms and learn them quick. The beauty of this industry is that everyone's constantly learning, including the 'experts'. This is important to know especially when you start off because you will hear lots of new terms and words that are unfamiliar to you. So be comfortable in being in the realm of the unknown and enjoy the exciting but steep learning curve ahead of you.

Tip #3 – Start networking early!

Our Director of search, Kevin Gibbons, mentioned that he met final year university students at Pubcon (a search conference held in Vegas) recently, who were walking around meeting industry leaders and handing out business cards. They were networking even before finding a job, so make sure you attend industry events or even local networking events and build relationships with people within the industry. Once you've met with them make sure you continue fostering the relationship via Twitter and LinkedIn.

Tip #4 – Ask and you shall receive:

This links with the previous tip; once you've networked and met someone influential within the industry don't go "could you give me/find me a job please?", rather ask the right questions. Ask questions about current roles that are in demand, or what skills are valued the most and what's hot within the industry right now? These questions will give you greater insights into the skills that are in demand and will help you focus on a particular role to go after.

Tip #5 – Find your niche that match your strengths

If you ask me what the best thing about working in the SE & SMM industry is, I'd say it's the diversity of the individuals who make up this industry. Surprisingly not all of us are geeks, technical, or even tech savvy but we're good at what we specialise in. no one can be amazing at everything, so there are niches within this big umbrella called Digital Marketing or eMarketing. If you take the SEOptimise team as an example, you will find some with degrees in computer science, business development, classical archaeology & ancient history, physics & philosophy, mathematics, mechanical engineering, business management and the list goes on. So if your degree has absolutely nothing to do with computers, it is perfectly fine! I believe this industry is big enough to accommodate your skills and talents.

Tip #6 – Leverage your existing skills

If you've got any of the following skills, make sure you highlight them in your CV:

You have web development and design skills – this is the most natural transition into the world of Search and Social Media. Simply because you know what it takes to build a site, so it's only logical that you learn how to promote your site to your target audience. Most often these people you target are either searching for something on Google/Bing/Yahoo/Baidu or passing their time on Facebook/Twitter/LinkedIn. So the very basic objective of Search and Social Media Marketing is to make sure your website is in the faces of these people.

You are analytical – you love statistics, you love mathematics, you love excel then you might enjoy PPC or Paid Search. This is where you pay search engines and social media platforms to display your adverts and promote your brand, service or any offering.

Writing is your passion – the SEO industry is waking up to the fact that quality content is integral to all marketing activities. Big brands are taking web content really seriously! So if you love writing really engaging, thought provoking, high quality content then you can enter this industry as a copywriter. Tom Critchlow went to the extent of suggesting that every company should appoint a 'chief content officer' to manage and maintain quality web content.

You are creative and think out of the box – this trait can be useful in a number of ways. You could be creative in coming up with really interesting blog posts, you could come up with really creative ways of doing link building that others haven't thought of. If you love expressing your creativity through art or graphics, you could be really good at creating and designing infographics. More importantly you could come up with loads of creative ideas for SEO, PPC or Social Media campaigns (as you would in an advertising agency).

You are a software engineer and programming is your thing – the SEO industry is always looking for new and innovative software and tools to be built in order to make their day to day work easier. So when you network with people within the SE & SMM industry be sure to ask "what kind of tools would you like built to make you work more efficiently?" find out what these are and build them. If you can go to an interview and say you built a tool that your friend (or an agency) uses to manage their Facebook ad campaigns or it helped them manage SEO projects efficiently, I can assure you the agency will be quite interested in you. Having someone in-house to develop tools that improve efficiency and productivity is a competitive advantage for any agency.

If you are a people person – you love a good social gathering and love meeting new people, or you are really good at picking up the phone and striking conversations with strangers, then you could get into link building and do some serious 'blogger outreach' activities. Link building is probably the most difficult and time consuming activity in SEO. Therefore, it helps if you are a natural hustler. And trust me; your skills will be worth its weight in gold!

At the top of my head, these were the skills that came to mind, if I have missed anything please do pop down to the comments and share with us what other skills that you think can fit into this massive puzzle called the SE & SMM industry.

Tip #7 – Find out what employers are looking for

Some very famous people within the industry have listed what they look for in a candidate in the post titled How To Recruit An SEO – The SEO Industry Leaders Reveal Their Secrets which I urge you to read. Bear in mind this particular post is aimed at people with a little more experience within the industry, having said that, it's still a good idea to learn about the thought process of those who actually hire you.

Tip #8 – Answering the dreaded "so what experience do you have in SE & SMM?" question

OK so you must be thinking this is all well and fine. But every time I apply for a job they ask me what experience I have. How do I gain experience if I don't get an opportunity to build experience? This is actually a great question and I completely share your frustration. But the beauty of the SE & SMM industry is that you don't need to hold a job or a position in order to demonstrate your skills in SEO, PPC or social media. Yes, you read that right!

Here are some ways you can demonstrate hands on experience:

Be an active member in clubs and societies at university

While at university join a club or a society and put yourself up to be part of these committees. Or if you don't find any club interesting, you could go ahead and start your own club. Setup a Facebook page and a twitter page and start managing it. This experience will give you loads of insight into how difficult it is to actually manage and promote a Facebook page. Get familiar with tools like Hootsuite or Tweetdeck, learn how to schedule tweets, test out what works on social media and what doesn't. If you could go into an interview and say I set up a Facebook page for my club and increased its fans from virtually none to 856 within 6 months and list out the activities you undertook in order to increase these numbers, I can assure you they'd be well impressed.

Don't forget volunteer work, internships and work experience roles

I know there is debate about interns not getting paid and whether it's ethical or even legal to not get paid for work experience. I shall not comment on the politics or the legality of this practice in this post, but in my case I worked two internships before landing my proper role within the SE & SMM industry. My first internship role was unpaid and the second paid me a very small wage! So at one point I worked two jobs at the same time and worked about 70 hours a week! One job gave me the necessary skills for my career and the second paid my bills. In no way am I encouraging you to follow in my footsteps (seriously, I was out of my mind!) but the fact that I took on internship roles that were directly related to the career I wanted to pursue, helped me look attractive to potential employers. So don't ever write off doing volunteer and internship roles. Any experience that is relevant is good experience!

Go around asking SMEs if they need a hand with SE & SMM

Recently a couple of friends asked me what they could do to demonstrate their skills in social media. I advised that they go out and find ultra-local businesses such as restaurants, pubs and cafes and suggest setting up Facebook and Twitter profiles for these businesses and offer to manage these. Local business owners don't have the time to invest in social media and probably even don't see the point in it. If you can convince them that it's a great way to retain customers and win new ones, chances are they will let you be their social media guy. Also speak to local charities and offer to do some volunteer work and devise plans on how you could help their fundraising activities through social media. Also make sure to organise events at university and use Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn to promote them. All this is work experience and makes your CV look good to potential employers.

Make sure you blog (especially if you want a role as a copywriter)

If you want to get into SE&SMM as a copy writer, make sure you blog regularly and build a decent following. Write about subjects that excite you or are passionate about, such as reviewing movies, albums, books, restaurants and events. Show you can blog about different subject areas and build relationships with other bloggers. One industry where SEO, PPC and Social Media are integral to the success of their business is the travel industry. So make sure you write about traveling, hotels, countries and cities in an exciting and engaging way. Also it would be advantageous if you could demonstrate your ability to write copy in a completely different style to that of your own. This is because most often you will be writing on topics that may be alien to you.

You have your own website

If you know how to develop and design websites, then a really good way to demonstrate first-hand SEO skills is to set up your own website and implement SEO techniques. Test different title tags, landing pages and link building efforts and see how they affect search engines rankings, traffic etc. also include social elements such as the many Facebook, Twitter and Google+ sharing features. Set up Google Analytics, Google webmaster tools and Bing webmaster tools to your site and familiarise yourself with these interfaces and their features. Again, these are all demonstrable skills that are extremely valued by employers. The idea is to show you're keen, enthusiastic and hungry to learn and improve your skills.

Some words of wisdom from people within the industry:

I asked around from active members of the SE & SMM industry what advice they'd give to someone embarking on a career in this industry. Here's what they said:

"The biggest piece of advice I can give is two-fold. Always be learning and get involved in the community. There’s so much to learn about search every day and the community is invaluable, people are so helpful and generous and very interesting because so many people came into SEO from so many different backgrounds. It’s a ton of fun to meet and learn from so many diverse people. Don’t ever let your skills get dusty, always test, always challenge what you’ve learned and always be open to learning from other people." – Michael King (aka iPullRank).

"From my experience, graduates who are looking for jobs in this sector must be able to display some key attributes. Presence on the web – a Facebook profile alone isn't enough. You have to be active on Twitter, LinkedIn etc. also it's essential to have some other sort of project. It could be a Youtube channel, a blog or a website. Something you can show that you have an explicit interest in. Once you’ve got your first job you’re going to learn so much. Until then, its enthusiasm that’s going to get you the job you want." – Gillian Cook

"I would suggest setting up a site of your own and doing SEO for it. It will mean you can demonstrate understanding and you get to have a play. Also, use one of the free AdWords vouchers to learn PPC. I would also consider doing the Analytics and AdWords exams as they aren’t greatly expensive and will give you a really good technical start." – Matthew Taylor

"Employers can be a lot more selective in their recruitment process nowadays, and as a result, are always on the lookout for the candidates who have something extra to offer. Look for work experience whilst studying; put it on your CV. Look for ways to practice things in your own time; put it on your CV. Just get something that makes you look better on paper than the people around you." - Daniel Braddock

Additional resources

Here are some additional resources:

beginners guide to SEO: a must read if you are new to SEO.

The Ultimate Guide to Getting a Job & Getting Promoted by Marcus Taylor.

How To Interview for an SEO Job by Chelsea Blacker.

How to impress at an SEO interview by Kevin Gibbons

SEO and Social Media leaders to follow on Twitter, Facebook, Google+….

As with any industry, the SE & SMM industry have within its niche its own experts who have reached celebrity-like status. I have listed some of the biggest names within the industry here as you're sure to hear their names regularly in conversation with SEOs and Social Media Marketers.

Danny Sullivan (Search Engine Land)

Matt Cutts (Google)

Vanessa Fox (Nine By Blue)

Aaron Wall (SEOBook)

Rand Fishkin (SEOmoz)

Danny Dover (author of SEO secrets)

Richard Baxter (SEOgadget)

Michael King (aka iPullRank)

Will Critchlow (Distilled)

Brian Solis (Altimeter)

Chris Brogan

Jay Baer

Scott Monty (Ford)

David Armano (Edleman)

Conclusion

I've tried to make this post as comprehensive and as useful to you as possible. However, if I have missed something, please do feel free to pop down to the comments section and add anything you think is relevant to the topic.

Finally, I wish you all the very best in your job search in the SE & SMM industry. I leave you with one last quote from Richard Baxter who was asked by Matthew Ogston what he bases his decision on when hiring someone new; his head or his heart?

“Most definitely my heart. It’s probably not ideal but genuinely, I look out for people I think will blend in well with the team (a cultural fit) – this can’t be measured with facts and figures, at least not in my experience. Obviously there’s a requirement to demonstrate previous achievements, but I also look for raw intelligence and problem solving over experience. SEO I can teach, attitude and aptitude I cannot.” (emphasis mine)

*Image credit: Tulane Public Relations on Flickr.

Seth's Blog : No choice

No choice

"I had no choice, I just couldn't get out of bed."

"I had no choice, it was the best program I could get into."

"I had no choice, he told me to do it..."

Really?

It's probably more accurate to say, "the short-term benefit/satisfaction/risk avoidance was a lot higher than anything else, so I chose to do what I did."

Remarkable work often comes from making choices when everyone else feels as though there is no choice. Difficult choices involve painful sacrifices, advance planning or just plain guts.

Saying you have no choice cuts off all options, absolves responsibility and is the dream killer.

• Email to a friend •

miercuri, 7 decembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Demand for Dollars from Fed's Discount Window Swells in Europe by 12,735% After Fed Cut Rates on Dollar Swap Lines
Europe's Ass Backwards Plan to Stimulate Lending
Chart of the Day: Food Stamp Recession Curve
Merkozy Dog-and-Pony Show is Nothing but Fleas; Immense Arrogance, Loose Cannons, No Credibility

Demand for Dollars from Fed's Discount Window Swells in Europe by 12,735% After Fed Cut Rates on Dollar Swap Lines

Posted: 07 Dec 2011 07:31 PM PST

On November 30, Central Banks Cut Rates on Dollar Swap Lines which made borrowing at the Fed's discount window cheaper for foreign banks than US banks.

As a result, Dollar-Loan Demand Swells In Europe and Japan

The European Central Bank said demand for three-month dollar loans surged after it cut the cost of the financing almost in half in a coordinated action last week with five other central banks including the Federal Reserve.

The European Central Bank, based in Frankfurt, will lend $50.7 billion to 34 euro area banks on Thursday for 84 days at a fixed rate of 0.59 percent. That compares with the $395 million lent in the last three-month offering on Nov. 9 at a rate of 1.09 percent. The E.C.B. also lent five banks $1.6 billion in its regular weekly dollar operation, up from $352 million last week. The E.C.B. does not disclose the identity of the banks that borrow.

Six central banks including the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan cut the cost of emergency dollar loans by 50 basis points on Nov. 30 in an effort to ease a credit shortage worsened by Europe's sovereign debt crisis. A basis point is equal to 0.01 percent. On Tuesday, demand for seven-day dollar loans from the Bank of Japan surged to $25 million from $1 million.

"The reduction in the rate seems to have been enough to reduce the stigma in using the facility," said Vincent Chaigneau, rate strategist at Société Générale in Paris.

Discount Window Borrowing Swells by 12,735%

$395 million to $50.7 billion is quite a move. Percentage-wise it is approximately 12,735%. In Japan, demand for loans increased from $1 million to $25 million, a mere 2,400%. The actual demand in Japan is trivial. In Europe, it's not.

Who is desperate for the cash? The ECB will not say. Does the Fed even know or care?

Further information on the discount window, including interest rates, is available from the Federal Reserve System's discount window web site.

Discount Window

US banks going to the Fed's discount window pay .75% for primary credit. European banks going to the Fed's discount window paid a fixed rate of .59%.

That said, US banks are generally not using the discount window given adequate liquidity.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Europe's Ass Backwards Plan to Stimulate Lending

Posted: 07 Dec 2011 12:02 PM PST

Please consider the ass backwards Measures to Stimulate Bank Lending in the EMU.

The European Central Bank may announce a range of measures tomorrow to stimulate bank lending, said three euro-area officials with knowledge of policy makers' deliberations.

Options on the table include loosening collateral criteria so that institutions have more access to cheap ECB cash and offering them longer-term loans to grease the flow of credit to the economy, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private. Two said an interest rate cut is likely, with only the size of the reduction to be determined for the monthly decision tomorrow.

The ECB is focusing on getting banks lending again rather than increasing its government bond purchases to fight Europe's debt crisis. The central bank's insistence that governments take measures to restore investor confidence appears to have paid dividends, with Italian and Spanish yields plunging after Germany and France agreed to move the 17-nation euro area toward a fiscal union, a stance they reiterated today.

Confidence? What Confidence?

There is no confidence. Investors stepped in to buy Italian and Spanish debt hoping to unload to the ECB when it steps up bond purchases in the secondary market. Confidence is nothing more than investors front-running ECB president Mario Draghi's hint that the ECB is about to purchase more sovereign debt.

Ass Backwards Plan

Banks cannot or will not lend in Europe for the same reason they don't in the US.

Banks are undercapitalized
Few credit worthy businesses want to borrow

Cutting rates will not fix either of those problems. Worse yet, and with thanks to French President Nicolas Sarkozy, taxpayers and businesses will bear 100% of the responsibility to recapitalize banks.

Europe is in recession. Yet the fools at the EMU and EU want to increase the VAT, increase property taxes, increase fees, etc, to ensure that French and German banks do not shoulder any responsibility for making idiotic loans.

This may (or may not) increase confidence that banks will not go under, but it sure will not inspire consumers to spend or businesses to borrow.

Moreover, lowering interest rates further will put additional stress on those living on fixed income.

Correct Approach

Force banks, not taxpayers, to take losses for stupid lending decisions
Force banks to raise capital so they are not capital restrained in lending
Reduce public sector spending
Reduce taxes on businesses
Reduce taxes on private citizens

In every instance, except perhaps number three in some countries, the ECB, EU, EMU, and various national leaders have taken the exact wrong approach.

This is a balance sheet recession, not the garden variety in which the standard solution of central bank rate cutting might appear help. Few seems to have figured this out yet.

Worse yet, most of the few who have figured this out are hell-bent on trying various QE strategies proven to be complete failures by Japan and the US.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Chart of the Day: Food Stamp Recession Curve

Posted: 07 Dec 2011 09:11 AM PST

The latest Food Stamp data (now called SNAP) is out. Here is a chart by reader Tim Wallace showing program usage.

I added highlights in yellow to mark recessions based on NBER Business Cycle Expansions. The NBER is the official arbiter of recession start and end dates.

Food Stamp Participation 1969 to Present

click on chart for sharper image

Tim writes ...

The latest food stamp (SNAP) data is available for September 2011. The reporting lags by two months. We have now surged past 46 million, up to 46,268,257 to be exact.

Note that food stamp usage sloped down throughout the Reagan presidency until it started back up in 1989, ahead of the recession that doomed Bush I, then continued for several more years.

The pattern is similar for the recession of 2001. Food stamp usage picked up in 2001 prior to the recession, then continued for four years after the recession ended.

The current recession ended in mid-2009 but usage spirals higher and higher.

You can see that this "recession" is far more devastating than any in the past as the curve is more like a right angle than a curve.

We have added about 20 million in the latest rise and if the trend continues (as it has so far and as it did in the past two recessions), usage will hit 51 million or so in 2013.

Tim

In the last three recessions, a significant change in upward slope in food stamp participation served as a leading indicator of the upcoming recession. Only the second 80's recession failed to meet that pattern.

Based on demographics as well as weak hiring trends, it is reasonable to assume this steep upward slop will continue.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Merkozy Dog-and-Pony Show is Nothing but Fleas; Immense Arrogance, Loose Cannons, No Credibility

Posted: 06 Dec 2011 11:27 PM PST

Within a couple of days German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will present their "Grand Plan" to save Europe to a formal hearing on EU debt.

Their plan is on the death-bed already, but it does not officially die until formal votes in May as noted in Eurozone Treaty Changes to be Finalized in March, Then a Vote in May, Then Country-Specific Referendums, Then?

Merkozy Dog-and-Pony Show is Nothing but Fleas

As with grand plans for the EFSF, still not finalized, the Merkozy plan has morphed into nothing but budget rules that the EMU will not be able to enforce because Sarkozy would not cede fiscal control to the EU. Merkel will not accept Eurobonds, because she can't, by German supreme court ruling.

By any reasonable standard, the Merkozy dog-and-pony show is in reality neither dog nor pony but rather all fleas.

Loose Cannons and No Credibility

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo Bank asks Where have your standards gone, Europe?

This week is being touted as the make-or-break week for the Euro and its Euro-zone - we did not get a Grand Plan in Cannes as Sarkozy had promised us, so now it seems we will get a Desperate plan instead.

The EU will always create 'something' which they believe they can sell as progress, but the problem is one of moral and political standards, or rather the lack thereof. Yes, you can buy time by printing money, you can try to fast-track changes to EU treaties, but you simply cannot run away from the dilution of standards from these desperate actions.

This weekend it dawned on me (and yes I am a bit slow) that the real issue here is not whether Europe gets a deal by late Tuesday night, rather it's about how the EU can maintain any shred of credibility on its long-term ability to move the agenda beyond "saving Europe" to the longer term challenge of creating the next upswing in employment, growth and optimism.

This is not a question of the need for a crisis, though I do believe it's the only way we get true progress, it is more about an alarming decline in standards of behaviour by those in power. Simply put, they have become loose cannons. The IMF can lend thousands of per cent of its SDR quotas, the FED can print trillions of dollars if they deem it necessary and soon it appears EU political shenanigans will see the ECB printing money in exchange for politicians in Europe doing what they should have done in 1999.

At its core, perhaps this is what the "occupy" movement is all about: it's a protest against the violation of standards of behaviour by the ruling class, not just against the decisions they have made. And if that is the case, then I agree! We need debt brakes to stop the fiscal bloodshed, and we certainly need standards for how far central banks and politicians can devalue our hard earned, after tax salary by printing money.

This week, the EU's Merkel/Sarkozy will try to force the move toward fiscal union using article 126 in the EU treaty, which basically gives the decision making forum of the EU Council the power to move and strengthen fiscal oversight.

The problem here is that it will be seen, ultimately as what it is: a total dilution of the originally intended standards of EU behaviour and indirectly it also puts us on the road to of transitioning from Euro-17 to perhaps the Euro-10.

I still have the feeling we are about to add a third new low point in the history of the EU history. The first was breaking the original stability-and-growth pact, the second was the ECB's intervention in the peripheral sovereign debt markets in May of last year. Now we have the third and perhaps final straw: no limits, and no accountability to voters, the investors and the future.

So the risk is that the EU wins the battle this week, only to lose the war down the road.

Please let me be wrong.

Steen

Immense Arrogance

Reader Andrea emails ...

Hi Mish,

My comment (and I think I am not alone in Europe): This is a Franco-German agreement drawn and agreed between France and Germany without any involvement or contribution of any kind at any level of the other 25 countries.

Why the hell should the other 25 countries (parliaments or people) approve that?

Irritation, even rage against the Franco-German tandem deciding for everybody is mounting quite fast in other European countries.

The odds to get this plan approved are basically 0.

Best regards,

AC

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

joi, 8 decembrie 2011

We Are Not Giving Up

Social Media Metrics: Not as Difficult as You Thought

Social Media Metrics: Not as Difficult as You Thought

Determining KPIs

What Makes Your Social Efforts Healthy?

What Do I Mean by Growth?

What Do I Mean by Engagement?

What Do I Mean by Momentum?

What Do I Mean by Results?

So Where Does Moz Go From Here?

Install It

The Full List of Features

SEOptimise