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The things we fear are probably feared by others, and when we avoid them, we're doing what others are doing as well.
Which is why there's a scarcity of whatever work it is we're avoiding.
And of course, scarcity often creates value.
The shortcut is simple: if you're afraid of something, of putting yourself out there, of creating a kind of connection or a promise, that's a clue that you're on the right track. Go, do that.
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Posted: 04 Mar 2012 05:54 PM PST Two more signs surfaced today that suggest Australia is headed for if not in recession. Australia Services Index Plunges, Now in Contraction Bloomberg reports Australian February Services Fall to Lowest in Almost a Year Australia's services industry declined in February to the lowest level in almost a year, driven by a drop in new orders as the gap between resources and other industries widens, a private survey showed.Australia Service Index Components
This is nothing short of an absolute disaster. That wages have held up is not good news either. Think retailers or any other service industries will be hiring? If so, think again. Bleakest of Views From Retail Shops The Herald Sun comments on the Bleakest of views from the shopfronts. THE Australian retail sector is in trouble like it's never been before. Not even in the dark days of the 1990 recession.The article concludes with complete economic drivel... The numbers from the big listed retailers, such as Harvey Norman and David Jones, are ominous enough. We are not really seeing the havoc wreaked across small mum-and-dad retailing.Retail and Housing Bloodbath Coming Up There is so much misguided drivel in the article that I hardly know where to start. Here is some nonsense about a shopper's sweet spot: "For shoppers, it's something of a sweet spot. They've never had it so good. The $100 you spend in a supermarket buys you about 5 per cent more in goods than it did a year ago." Retail prices in Australia are absurd. A 5% reduction in prices is hardly a bargain. As for the notion mining will carry the economy, forget about it. Commodity prices are going to plunge, and besides, commodities are not a big driver of jobs anyway. There is no "floor" under retail. The bottom is going to fall out, and unemployment is going to soar. In turn, rising unemployment will clobber Australia's already deep-in-trouble housing sector. As for small shops, they are completely doomed. Store owners with little leeway on wages will not get the income they need to pay taxes, interest, utilities, and rent. Expect an across the board retail and housing bloodbath because one is coming. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Posted: 04 Mar 2012 03:27 PM PST Ron Paul was on Face the Nation today discussing Rush Limbaugh, Rick Santorum, and Government Mandates. CBS News reports Paul: Limbaugh apologized for personal gain. Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul said an apology by conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh to Georgetown Law student Sandra Fluke for calling her a "slut" and a "prostitute" was not sincere, and was made only because it best served Limbaugh.Attack by Limbaugh Awakens a 'Stop Rush' Campaign The New York Times reports Attack by Limbaugh Awakens a 'Stop Rush' Campaign Some of the same activists that persuaded advertisers to boycott Glenn Beck's television show on Fox News in 2009 are now mobilizing against Rush Limbaugh in the wake of his verbal attacks on a Georgetown University law school student this week.Limbaugh the Epitome of Everything Wrong With Republican Party Rush Limbaugh and his ilk are the epitome of everything wrong with the Republican party. Limbaugh is a chickenhawk, a sexist, was fired from sports broadcasting for being a racist, was arrested on drug charges, and was addicted to pain killers. Yet the blazing hypocrite stated "Drug use, some might say, is destroying this country. And we have laws against selling drugs, pushing drugs, using drugs, importing drugs. ... And so if people are violating the law by doing drugs, they ought to be accused and they ought to be convicted and they ought to be sent up." Asinine talk might appeal to the far right, but the far right is not going to carry the day. Republicans need to be seeking the middle ground and independents. Divisive attacks on abortion, birth control pills, and refusal to consider military cuts are not going to win over independents. Rooting for Santorum New York Times columnist Joe Nocera says he is Rooting for Santorum. I'm rooting for Rick Santorum to win the Republican nomination. Seriously.The Republican party needs to get rid of the extreme right-wingers like Limbaugh and Santorum, the phonies like Mitt Romney, and the war-mongers like McCain. If they did, they could hold the center for decades (assuming there was anything left of the party). 10 Things That Should Be Clear
Those things should be clear but obviously they are not. Perhaps a Democrat landslide is what it takes to make the case clear. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Super Tuesday Delegate Rules and Preview; Brokered Convention Revised Math Posted: 04 Mar 2012 01:55 AM PST On Monday February 27, I laid out the Mathematical Case for Brokered Convention. Since then, Michigan, Wyoming, and Washington have posted results. The table below reflects those results. I made additional changes to my super Tuesday estimates based on new information regarding delegate rules. For example, many states have minimum percentages to receive any delegates and this favors Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum except in Georgia where rules heavily favor Gingrich. Finally, the LA times and Krem have posted different explanations for how the Idaho caucus works. There are now three possible scenarios for Idaho in play (depending on which explanation is correct). Totals through March 3 in the table below are from Real Clear Politics 2012 Republican Delegates. March 6 Super Tuesday numbers are my estimates.
* States penalized half of their delegates. ** Not all delegates assigned, or assigned to candidates who have dropped out *** Idaho Rules are in Question. See explanation below. Thru Super-Tuesday (If Idaho Splits) Romney: 396 Santorum + Gingrich + Paul: 374 Other: 41 Thru Super-Tuesday (If Idaho Goes to Paul) Romney: 378 Santorum + Gingrich + Paul: 392 Other: 41 Thru Super-Tuesday (If Idaho Goes to Romney) Romney: 410 Santorum + Gingrich + Paul: 360 Other: 41 As you can see there is a decent-sized swing in play for Idaho, depending on the exact caucus rules. Even assuming Romney wins 100% of the Idaho delegates, he would still have barely over 50% of the delegates to date. However, that would probably, but not necessarily be enough as he would pick up some of those 41 and he rates to do reasonably well in California. Nonetheless, even if Romney does as outlined above, the possibility for a brokered convention still exists. If Romney does worse than expected on Super Tuesday, it's a whole new ball game. It would also be a whole new ballgame if Romney were to do poorly in California, or split the delegates three ways here on out. Super Tuesday Delegate Rules, Preview, Estimates The rules for each primary are from the LA Times article Super Tuesday 2012: What's at stake and who's in the lead Except where noted, polls are from Real Clear Politics Super Tuesday Poll. GEORGIA PRIMARY Delegates at stake: 76 How it works: 34 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. The winner in each of the state's 14 congressional districts will earn another two delegates, and the second-place finisher will win one, unless one candidate wins more than 50% in a district. Georgia Predictions Gingrich wins all 14 districts for 28 Romney comes in second in all 14 districts for 14 Gingrich gets 52% of 34 for 18 Romney gets 28% of 34 for 10 Santorum gets 20% of 34 for 6 Totals Gingrich: 46 Romney: 24 Santorum: 6 Paul: 0 OHIO PRIMARY Delegates at stake: 66 How it works: 15 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. If a candidate has more than 50%, though, he wins all 15. Another three delegates will be awarded to the winner in each of the state's 16 congressional districts. In both cases, voters are electing delegates who have pledged to vote for a presidential nominee. Santorum, it should be noted, did not file delegate lists in all of the congressional districts. The final three delegates are the elected state party leaders. Santorum is not on the ballot in 3 of 13 districts. See Family of three GOP delegates gets Santorum on ballot in an Ohio district for an explanation. Ohio Predictions Of the 15 at-large Romney: 7 Santorum: 8 Of 16 Districts Romney wins 3 by default and 6 contested for 27 delegates Santorum wins 7 contested for 21 delegates State Party Leaders give Romney 2, Santorum 1 Totals Romney: 36 Santorum: 30 TENNESSEE PRIMARY Delegates at stake: 58 How it works: 28 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. If one candidate has more than 66% of the vote, he wins all 28. In the nine congressional districts, a candidate will win all three delegates if he wins 66% of the vote. If the winner and runner-up both have between 20% and 66% of the vote, the winner receives two delegates and the runner-up gets one. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders. A more recent MTSU Poll show those percentages are holding. Tennessee Predictions Of the 28 at-large Santorum wins 18 Of the 28 at-large Romney wins 10 In the 9 Congressional Districts Santorum wins all 9 for 18 Romney come in second in all 9 for 9 State party leaders give 2 to Santorum, 1 to Romney Totals Romney: 20 Santorum: 38 VIRGINIA PRIMARY Delegates at stake: 49 How it works: 13 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving 15% of the vote. But because there are only two candidates on the ballot -- Romney and Paul -- it will likely be winner-take-all. Three delegates will also be awarded to the winner in each of the 11 congressional districts. Prediction Romney wins all 49 OKLAHOMA PRIMARY Delegates at stake: 43 How it works: 25 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the statewide vote, unless one candidate has more than 50%, in which case he wins all 25. In each of the state's five congressional districts, three delegates will be awarded proportionally to candidates with 15% of the vote, unless, again, one had more than 50% of the vote in that district. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders. Oklahoma Predictions Santorum wins 48% of 25 for 12 Romney wins 28% of 25 for 7 Gingrich wins 24% of 25 for 6 15 district Delegates Santorum wins 7 Romney wins 4 Gingrich wins 4 Santorum wins 2 party leader votes, Romney 1 Totals Romney: 12 Santorum: 21 Gingrich: 10 MASSACHUSETTS PRIMARY Delegates at stake: 41 How it works: 11 delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the statewide vote. Another three delegates will be awarded based on the vote in each of the state's nine congressional districts, again proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the vote. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders. Based on the rules it appears Santorum will be lucky to win even a handful. Totals Romney 38 Santorum 3 IDAHO CAUCUSES Delegates at stake: 32 How it works: According to the Idaho Republican Party, a secret vote will be held at each county caucus, lasting several rounds. In each round, the candidate with the least number of votes is eliminated until one reaches 50%. County results will then be tabulated statewide, with 29 delegates awarded proportionally based on the final tallies. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders. Note: That description from the LA Times differs considerably from this Idaho Caucus Explanation: Voters will go to locations for their county and use ballots or tokens to support a candidate on Tuesday, March 6th. There are five candidates for Idaho voters to choose from and they will keep voting until a winner is selected.Predictions Assuming the LA Times is correct, the delegate totals will be split between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Otherwise Paul or Romney will win them all. Scenario 1: Mitt Romney: 18 Ron Paul: 14 Scenario 2: Mitt Romney 32 Scenario 3: Ron Paul 32 NORTH DAKOTA CAUCUSES Delegates at stake: 28 How it works: The caucuses will begin the process of allocating delegates to the national convention, but all 28 will remain unbound, meaning they can ultimately vote for whichever candidate they choose. Predictions This is somewhat of a crapshoot but no one is likely to dominate and Paul's organization in caucus states should help. Romney: 8 Santorum: 7 Paul: 7 Gingrich: 6 ALASKA DISTRICT CONVENTIONS Delegates at stake: 27 How it works: 24 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to candidates, based on the statewide vote, at individual district conventions. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders. Predictions This is another crapshoot but one that favors Santorum and Romney Totals Romney: 10 Santorum: 11 Paul: 3 Gingrich: 3 VERMONT PRIMARY Delegates at stake: 17 How they're awarded: 11 delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote, unless one candidate received a majority. Another three delegates will be allocated to the overall statewide winner. The final three delegates are the elected state party leaders. Rules are such that Romney will walk away with the lion's share Predictions Romney: 15 Santorum: 2 Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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"We've decided to hire someone with totally different skills than yours..." and then they hire someone just like you, but more expensive and not as good.
"We're not going to buy a car this month, my husband wants to wait..." and then you see them driving a new car from that other dealer, the one with the lousy reputation.
"I'm just not interested..." and then you see the new RFP, one you could have helped them write to get a more profitable and productive outcome.
People lie to salesmen all the time. We do it because salespeople have trained us to, and because we're afraid.
Prospects (people like us) lie in many situations, because when we announce that we''ve made the decision to hire someone else, or when we tell the pitching entrepreneur we don't like her business model, or when we clearly articulate why we're not going to do business, the salesperson responds by questioning the judgment of the prospect.
In exchange for telling the truth, the prospect is disrespected.
Of course we don't tell the truth--if we do, we're often bullied or berated or made to feel dumb.
Is it any surprise that it's easier to just avoid the conflict altogether? Of course, there's an alternative, but it requires confidence and patience on the part of the seller and marketer.
Someone who chooses not to buy from you isn't stupid. They're not unable to process ideas logically, nor are they unethical or manipulated by others. No, it's simpler than that:
Given what they know and what they believe, the prospect is making exactly the right decision.
We always make our decision based on what we know and believe. That's a tautology, based on the definition... a decision is the path you take based on what you know and believe, right?
The challenge, then, it seems to me, is to realize that perhaps the prospect knows something you don't, or, just as likely, doesn't believe what you believe. Your job as a marketer is to figure out what your prospect's biases and worldview and fears and beliefs are, and as a salesperson, your job is to help them know what you know.
If you keep questioning our judgment, we're going to keep lying to you.
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Brazil Declares New Currency War on US and Europe; Japan Losing Balance of Trade Battle Posted: 03 Mar 2012 06:12 PM PST In hope-against-hope scenario, countries with balance-of-trade surpluses struggle to maintain it. Put Japan, Germany, Brazil, and China in that group. In that group, Japan is losing the Balance of Trade Battle. Brazil Declares New Currency War on US and Europe The Financial Times reports Brazil declares new 'currency war' Brazil has declared a fresh "currency war" on the US and Europe, extending a tax on foreign borrowings and threatening further capital controls in an effort to protect the country's struggling manufacturers.Brazilian Real vs. US Dollar The chart shows the Brazilian Real has pretty much been on a tear vs. the US dollar since 2003. Now Brazil is concerned about loss of exports, just as Japan is concerned about loss of exports. Mathematically speaking, the desire for every country to be net exporters is impossible. Massive trade wars are on the horizon as a result. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Vancouver B.C. vs. Donegal Ireland Real Estate: What Will $890,000 Buy? Posted: 03 Mar 2012 12:16 PM PST Inquiring minds seeing new data on Vancouver's massively overpriced real estate just might be seeking new comparisons to other places. First, Let's take a look at what $890,000+- will buy in Vancouver. Vancouver Real Estate 2119 East 3rd Ave, Vancouver MLS® Number V934050 Listing Price: $899,500 Description: "This 1 ? story home has been extensively renovated over the last few years. The spacious kitchen has birch cabinets and Soapstone counters and opens to a 20x12' deck. On this level are 2 B/Rs and a modern 4pce bath. Upstairs has an office/den area, a 4pce bath and a big master B/R with a W/I closet and 12x8 view deck. The bsmt has a 1 B/R suite rented at $960 P.M. and the attached garage has been converted to a workshop with French doors opening to the fenced garden, with B/I bench, a patio and a kid's sandbox. " That creative listing puts a new meaning to the the word "upstairs". Is the number of stories listed at "1?" really in question? 2564 East Pender Street, Vancouver MLS® Number V930595 Listing Price: $899,000 Description: "Complete Transformation! Brand New Envelope! Hardie plank & cedar shingles, new windows, new electrical panel, new HW tank, new plumbing. Spacious 3 level home on extra deep lot!" I believe it's safe to say the above creative listing puts a new meaning to the phrase "extra deep lot!" At least the above homes were arguably livable. Check out this next beauty, and guess the price without looking too far ahead. 1016 East 7th Ave, Vancouver MLS® Number V930461 Listing Price: $899,000 Description: "Opportunity knocks! Builders and investors need look no further if they desire a view property with multi-family zoning (RM-4). This property overlooks China Creek Park, with amazing views of the North Shore mountains and close to Commercial Drive and two skytrain stations. Priced at lot value, the property is being sold 'As Is, Where Is.'" Congratulations to those who guessed the "opportunity knocks" price of $899,000 for this "As Is, Where Is" bargain complete with "amazing views", presumably through the opening where one would normally expect to find a workable door as opposed to the windows that are all boarded up. All of the above listings are from Vancouver East Homes From $850,000 to $900,000 Donegal, Ireland With those bargain listings in hand, let's consider a single property sale that just took place in Ireland. The previous price for the Sandhouse Hotel located in Donegal, Ireland sold at auction was $6 million. Please consider Spectacular Irish hotel, massive discount price Paul Diver has purchased a spectacular 55 bedroom hotel overlooking the Donegal coastline for a mere $860,000, down from the $6 million price the original owners sought for the Sandhouse Hotel three years ago.There you have it: "amazing views" in Vancouver for $899,000 vs. "amazing views" in Donegal for $860,000. It is indeed "different" in Canada. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 03 Mar 2012 01:51 AM PST There was lots of Eurozone news this week outside of the typical Greek default fodder. Nearly all of that news was not pretty. Let's take a look at the key stories. Eurozone Unemployment Rate 10.7%, Highest Since 1999 The Telegraph reports Eurozone unemployment hits record high of 10.7pc Data from Eurostat showed that the region lost 185,000 jobs in one month, with the vast gap between North and South growing ever wider. The figures for the previous four months were also revised upwards sharply. There are now more than 450,000 more people without jobs than assumed a month ago.Italian Unemployment Hits Record Please consider Italian unemployment hits record The unemployment rate in the eurozone continued to rise in January, hitting another record high. There are now 16.9 million people out of work in the bloc, Eurostat said.French Unemployment Rate Hits 9.4 Percent Please note French unemployment up to 9.4 per cent in Q4 of 2011 France's unemployment rate rose by 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 9.4 per cent of the active population, state statistics agency INSEE said on Thursday.Eurozone Unemployment Rates at a Glance
Take a look at those varying unemployment rates. That is what a "one size fits Germany" interest rate policy and misguided currency union will do. About that 5.8% German Unemployment Rate Is Germany's unemployment rate really 5.8%? I think not. Wolf Richter comments on the German Unemployment Obfuscation. Richter counts up all the groups that don't count and comes up with 1,701,534. That number is a bit off the mark given the officially unemployed number is 3,081,706 but 5,394,064 people actually received unemployment compensation. There's still more obfuscation as shown in the following snip. People 58 and older are excluded from the official unemployment numbers, even if they're desperately looking for a job. They don't receive unemployment compensation but, conveniently, pre-retirement compensation. So they don't count for the simple reason that they're too old to count. That's the German baby-boom generation. They're turning 58 in massive numbers and fall unceremoniously off the unemployment lists. In September 2011, the last month for which official numbers were available: 374,592.So what's the real German unemployment rate? German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall Bloomberg reports German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall German retail sales unexpectedly declined in January as rising oil prices fueled inflation.Avoid a Recession? What the hell is Bloomberg writer Jeff Black smoking? The recession is right here, right now. As for jobs creation, forget about it. The European-wide recession is going to be long and deep, so who pray tell is Germany going to be exporting to? By the way, why was this drop unexpected? I have been calling for it for some time, and it's going to get worse, much worse. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® Contracts 7th Consecutive Month Inquiring minds are reading the Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® Report. The Eurozone manufacturing sector showed further signs of stabilisation in February. The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® rose to a six-month high of 49.0, unchanged from the earlier flash estimate and above January's 48.8.Stabilization? Really? No, Not Really! Given the drop in new orders, export orders, and German employment, coupled with rising input prices and a huge profit squeeze, it takes a real stretch of the imagination to even hint at stabilization. Moreover, austerity measures in Spain, Portugal, Greece, France, and Ireland suggest things are going to get much worse. There is no way the vaunted German export machine stays intact in the face of those facts. Within two months, and probably next month, the bottom will fall out of numerous eurozone production and retail sales numbers. Moreover, the lid will blow off the top of numerous eurozone unemployment numbers. In both cases, the biggest "unexpected" downward surprises will be in Germany, even though it should be perfectly obvious what is going to happen. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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