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At the core of permission marketing is the efficiency of earning, maintaining and leveraging attention.
If you don't have to begin anew each time, you can cut the effort and spending you're putting into reaching strangers. And if the consumer can trust that you won't waste her time, she can spend more time on productive work and less time sorting offers to see what's worth looking at.
The method for accomplishing this: make promises and keep them. Make an offer and then follow through. Don't waste my time.
The advanced method: intentionally design your communications to create a habit of attention. Habits are hard to form and even harder to break, and when properly constructed, they can benefit both sides.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 06 Mar 2012 10:18 PM PST A set of incredibly weak economic reports from down under have left me with in inescapable conclusion that Australia has entered recession. Australia GDP Expands "Less Than Expected" .04% in 4th Quarter The BBC reports Australia's economy expands 0.4% in the fourth-quarter Australia's economy has expanded by less than expected in the fourth quarter of 2011, as business spending dropped, sending the dollar to a six-week low.3.5% growth? What the heck are these guys smoking? 21st Monthly Decline in Construction Bloomberg reports Australian Construction Index Falls to Lowest in Four Months A gauge of Australia's construction industry fell to the lowest level in four months as commercial construction remained weak and house building declined.Tentative signs of recovery? With construction dropping 21 straight months? Really? Service Sector in Contraction Markit reports Australia Service Sector in Falls in February. Key FindingsHuge Price Squeeze Please take a good look at that chart. Wages have risen 31 months. Input prices have risen 108 consecutive months! Every other component of the PSI is in contraction. Selling prices have fallen for 3 months while new orders have plunged. Trendline Growth For another look at GDP growth in Australia, please consider The Australian economy is not growing at trend The outcome over 5 years? Trend growth at 0.72% per annum, with peak to trough and current total growth as marked on the chart. Ring, Ring Goes The Bell Indeed, it's not surprising (to a few of us anyway). Yesterday I stated Australia Retail and Housing Bloodbath Coming Up. Today I am ringing the bells of recession. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 06 Mar 2012 11:45 AM PST I can't help laughing at the Financial Times headline story Athens threat to bond holdouts. Greece has threatened to default on any of its bondholders who do not take part in this week's €206bn debt restructuring, raising the pressure on potential holdouts.Pitiful Threat This pitiful threat demonizing evil hedge funds will prove to be as effective as a parent telling a child, "If you don't clean up your room, I will give you piece of cake". The hedge funds want a default. They are the ones covered with CDS contracts that will pay them in case of default. Those covered by CDS contracts have no incentive to agree to deals and threats to blow the entire deal sky high is exactly what most of the holdouts want to hear. Implications of a Disorderly Greek Default and Euro Exit Even more pathetic than the Greek "threat" is a "confidential" (purposely leaked) report by the Institute of International Finance which which represents about 450 banks and other private creditors to Greece. The Wall Street Journal has posted the document, Implications of a Disorderly Greek Default and Euro Exit so let's take a look at the hype. Self-Serving, Misguided Hype by IIF That "confidential" PDF is one of the biggest examples of self-serving nonsensical financial hype stories as you can find anywhere. It was put together by nannyzone supporters attempting to scare everyone about eurozone breakup costs. For starters the ECB will not be impacted by Greece regardless of what happens. The ECB would be made whole by EMU member nations if necessary. Moreover, the idea that tiny Greece will "cause" a Lehman-like cascade is farcical. The "cause" of this mess is the woefully inept treaty that created the eurozone. Greece, Spain, and Portugal are all bankrupt and all will exit the eurozone in due time and one cannot lay the blame for this on Greece. Indeed, had the fools at the EMU, IMF, and ECB allowed Greece to default two years ago, damage would have been minimized. Foolish attempts to "contain" Greece made matters far worse. That the damages will be higher now is a direct consequence of the ECB president Jaan-Claude Trichet's policy "we say no to default". At every opportunity to do the right thing (let Greece default), bureaucrats in the ECB, IMF, and EMU member countries threw more and more money at Greece in repeated attempts to prevent the inevitable. Only Realistic Solution is Eurozone Breakup Throwing still more money at Greece now will not prevent Greece, Portugal, and Spain from leaving the eurozone later. Instead, repeated attempts to stay on this road-to-ruin will do nothing but up costs later on, just as Miracle Monti's misguided LTRO programs will likewise do. For a more realistic discussion of the impacts and a recommended proper approach, please consider Report Shows Netherlands Would Benefit by Leaving Eurozone; Country by Country Aggregate Costs; Dutch Freedom Party Wants Euro Exit Referendum; Critical Juncture for Eurozone The euro and the eurozone are fundamentally flawed. Those flaws cannot be fixed by throwing more money at the problem. The only solution that really works is a breakup of the Eurozone, and the sooner the bureaucrats accept that simple fact, the better off everyone will be. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Obama Unveils New J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo Bailout Plan, Disguised as Mortgage Relief Posted: 06 Mar 2012 09:46 AM PST Under guise of helping homeowners, president Obama has finalized his plan to further aid banks. Please consider Obama's alleged Mortgage Relief Plan. The White House on Tuesday announced it was cutting the mortgage fees charged by the Federal Housing Administration's refinancing program in another effort to help the languishing housing market recover.Broadly Positive For Whom? Contrary to the opinions of Seiberg, this plan will not be "broadly positive" for housing and the economy any more than numerous other misguided attempts purported to do the same thing, all of which failed at their stated intent. Throwing more taxpayer money down the drain will of course be "broadly positive" for big banks that will see income rise. Indeed, much of the rally in bank shares this year has been in regards to "broadly positive" measures by the administration and the Fed purposely designed to bailout banks in contrast to stated reasons. Moreover, the plan is sure to be "broadly positive" for Obama's reelection chances, and "broadly negative" for taxpayers who will no doubt end up footing the bill, perhaps in more ways than one. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Misty Water-Colored Memories, Dirt-Cheap Stocks, and Patient Opportunism Posted: 06 Mar 2012 02:12 AM PST Looking at forward earnings estimates, buy recommendations, and numerous explanations once again as to why "stocks are cheap" I am left wondering (to paraphrase Barbara Streisand) "Can it be that it is all so simple now? Or has time repeated every lie?" Looking back, all that's left from the housing crash is "misty water-colored memories" of opportunities to cash out at the top (or dreams of not buying in the first place). The same can be said of the Nasdaq technology bubble that peaked at 5132 in March of 2000. 12 years later, the Nasdaq has managed to crawl back to 3000. Will it be another 10 years before the Nasdaq again hits 5000? "Dirt Cheap" says Analyst Dick Bove In 2000, in 2007, and again recently, we have heard many misguided explanations as to why "stocks are cheap". Some use forward earnings estimates, others tortured rationale such as "stocks are cheap compared to bonds", and still others use historical P/E estimates as if recent history is a guide to repeatable earnings. Recently, analyst Dick Bove said Bank Stocks 'Dirt Cheap' as Image Starts to Turn The Rochdale Securities vice president of equity research has long held that big banks have been most hampered not by their balance sheets by rather by negative perceptions - from Washington, Wall Street, and individual investors.Warning: A New Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest Please compare the analysis by Bove to that presented by John Hussman in Warning: A New Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest Banking NotesBubbles Are Not Reblown To Hussman's distinctly sobering bank forecast, let me add a couple of thoughts. For starters, the last bubble is not re-blown. Consider the "4 horseman" of the internet boom: Microsoft, Intel, Dell and Cisco. Where are they now? Sure there are some new leaders like Google and Apple, but the old ideas have languished. Consider the housing bust: In spite of every trick in the book used by Congress and the Fed, housing prices make new low after new low. Consider the banking sector: In spite of every effort by the Fed to get banks to lend, banks simply are not lending. I suggest the financial sector will be dead money (at best) for years, perhaps decades, just as waiting for the return of Intel, Cisco, or Microsoft has been. Cisco Monthly click on chart for sharper image Citigroup Monthly Is there going to be another credit lending bubble? Take a look at excess reserves parked at the Fed for your answer. The same can be said for reserves piling up at the ECB. So where's that earning's growth going to come from? Mars? About That Increase in Lending Analysts went gaga (a continual state of affairs actually) over recent increases in bank lending. For example, consumer credit expanded by $19 billion in December of which $11.8 was non-revolving credit. I took a look at non-revolving credit in Consumer Credit "Demolishes Expectations" Really? No Not Really! The "Non-Bounce" in Non-Revolving Credit and noted that $8.8 billion of that is growth in federal government loans (which just happens to be where student loans are parked). Non-Revolving Loans Minus Government LoansEight Reasons Banks Aren't Lending
Are U.S. Stocks (In General) Dirt Cheap? Still think bank stocks "dirt cheap"? Heck, are stocks in general dirt cheap? Let's return to Hussman for an opinion. Last week, the estimated return/risk profile of the S&P 500 fell to the worst 2.5% of all observations in history on our measures. This is not a runaway bull market. Rather, it is a market that again stands near the highs of an extended but volatile trading range. I am convinced that the breakdown of the market from this range has been deferred only through repeated and extraordinary central bank actions.Hussman has made those kinds of arguments before and so have I. If anything, I think Hussman may be an optimist. Indeed, I believe there is a decent chance of "Negative Returns for a Decade"
Clearly I have been preaching a consistent message, and equally clearly the market has other ideas. I was in a similar situation in 2006, calling for a recession when the yield curve inverted, waiting an agonizingly long time for it to arrive. This is yet another agonizingly long time for me as it has been for Hussman who writes ... My greatest concern as an investment manager is the possibility that some number of our shareholders will grow so exasperated with remaining defensive during these periods that they capitulate and take a significant position in the market at the worst possible point.Red highlighting is mine. Here is a quote from Howard Marks at Oaktree Capital as referenced by Hussman. Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital, The Most Important Thing (2011) "You simply cannot create investment opportunities when they're not there. When prices are high, it's inescapable that prospective returns are low. That single sentence provides a great deal of guidance as to appropriate portfolio actions. Patient opportunism - waiting for bargains - is often your best strategy." I tracked that message down to chapter 13 of Marks' Google Book The Most Important Thing: "The Most Important Thing Is .... Patient Opportunism" The wait may be agonizing, but it beats the consequences of plunging in at exactly the wrong time as happened in the Nasdaq in 2000, in housing in 2005 (on arguments "get in now before it's too late), and in the stock market in 2007. History suggests there will be better opportunities around the corner for those who have the patience to wait for them. How long that wait might be is still anyone's guess. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Damn Cool Pics |
Posted: 06 Mar 2012 03:49 PM PST The video below features a Finnish dog named Petu singing a mournful sounding tune, while slamming on the piano. This dog has some musical talent. Well, maybe not from a human standpoint, but definitely from a dog's. Come on, he's a dog! Via: mpviral |
Female Bodybuilders by Martin Schoeller Posted: 06 Mar 2012 02:29 PM PST Award winning photographer Martin Schoeller, 43, who is best known for his close-up portraits presents his latest collection, female bodybuilders. As the title suggests, there are tons of Schoeller's stylistic portraits of female bodybuilders. The series will make you redefine your definitions of beauty and how much is enough! |
Posted: 06 Mar 2012 02:02 PM PST Something wonderful is about to happen in Belfast, Northern Ireland. A hundred years after the Titanic set sail on her catastrophic maiden voyage a new center dedicated to the ship, her makers and passengers, will open in the city which built her. Titanic Belfast stands magnificent and resplendent in the very place the great ship was built. It is a structure as colossal as the ship it honors. Via: Kuriositas |
WTF is Pinterest [Infographic] Posted: 06 Mar 2012 01:56 PM PST Saving recipes, images of fashions you like and recipes you wanna try someday in your computer or in a notebook is totally passé. With Pinterest, the new online bulletin board you can now pin everything you like and access them from anywhere, anytime. The popularity of Pinterest is growing day by day and in the last six months of 2011 Pinterest experienced a 815% growth in traffic (unbelievable, but true!). The darling network of aspiring bakers, stylists and brides-to-be has such a charm that once you visit the site for the first time, you will definitely find something of your choice and become an ardent follower. It has also became one of the top 10 most visited social network sites and is the third in bringing in referral traffic to your business just behind Twitter and Facebook. OnlineSchools.com has put together the infographic below, which is a nice primer to the site, its exponentially expanding reach, and some insight into who is using it. Click on Image to Enlarge. |
Rémi Gaillard’s Elevator Prank Posted: 05 Mar 2012 09:48 PM PST French prankster Rémi Gaillard is at it again. His latest elevator prank has gone viral, scoring him over a million views on YouTube where he pretends to live in an elevator. To date, Gaillard's most popular prank has been Mario Kart, which debuted three years ago, has been viewed by more than 46.6 million people on YouTube. Mario Kart: |
Meet Winston Kemp, Lightning Strike Survivor Posted: 05 Mar 2012 05:27 PM PST People who are struck by lightning are sometimes left with tattoo-like markings called Lichtenberg figures or lightning flowers. It's been a month since Winston Kemp was struck by lightning, but the pattern of the electrical discharge is still visible on his skin. Kemp didn't see a doctor at the time, but he feels fine, although he thinks that his skin will keep this awesome scar. Via: geardiary |
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