Central Perk

sâmbătă, 19 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Apparel Sales by Price and Volume Provide Interesting Viewpoint

Posted: 19 May 2012 09:11 AM PDT

Reader Tim Wallace provides an interesting chart of apparel sales in the US by price and by unit volume. In this case, volume is likely the more telling statistic.

click on chart for sharper image

Tim writes ...

Hi Mish

As always, I am watching imports, especially with fascination the apparel imports. In the attached graph we see that dollars and units run mostly in slope lock-step until the crash of apparel demand in 2009.

In 2010 we see a significant "recovery". One thing about apparel is it does wear out, so a year like 2009 will cause pent-up demand in a following year. Price did not recover as much however.

2011 and the 12 month historical rolling numbers ended in March of 2012 (government data lags two months) is more interesting.

Dollar amounts continue to "recover" but the units measure has turned well downward again, in fact off 6% from 2010.

Looking at the monthly data from this time last year we see a continued degradation of the units amount every month, while the dollars amount trends up.

This is in effect apparel inflation, caused partially by raw materials. Cotton has been replaced in a significant percentage of products, stripping out demand and lowering that cost.

China lost some market share due to labor cost competition with Vietnam. However, China still dominates with 41.2% of market share, Vietnam second at 8.5%, then Bangladesh at 6.4% and Indonesia at 5.4%.

Thus 61.5% of all apparel imports come from only 4 countries.

Regards,

Tim

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Italy Deploys 20,000 Law Enforcement Officers to Protect Individuals and Sensitive Sites; Anecdotes From Italy via Canada: Taxed Out of House and Home

Posted: 19 May 2012 01:25 AM PDT

Italy Deploys 20,000 Law Enforcement Officers to Protect Individuals and Sensitive Sites

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports Italy deploys 20,000 to protect sensitive targets

Italy increased security Thursday at 14,000 sites, and assigned bodyguards to protect 550 individuals after a nuclear energy company official was shot and letter bombs directed to the tax collection agency.

Under the enhanced measures, Interior Minister Anna Maria Cancellieri deployed 20,000 law enforcement officers to protect individuals and sensitive sites. In addition, 4,200 military personnel already assigned throughout Italy will be redeployed according to new priorities.

Authorities will also increase intelligence to "neutralize" the risk of subversive actions "that can be nourished in moments of tension," the statement added.

Taxed Out of House and Home

In response to Tax Collection Violence in Italy: Mail Bombs in Rome, Police Clashes in Naples, Molotov Cocktails in Livorno I received an email from Frank who lives in Canada but owns property in Italy writes ...

Hello Mish

Trust me, it really is that bad.

I have a condo on the Adriatic in Italy, and lots of family still there. The local municipal property tax, called Imposta Comunale Immobili (ICI), is paid by anyone who owns property or land, whether they are a resident or not.

Recently, property taxes have gone up fast. Property is now being reassessed at the "real" value instead of the "official" (wink) value.

TV shows highlight the plight of elderly who have had to move out of their own homes into nursing homes because they could not pay property taxes.

My uncle has 6 apartments which he's owned for many years. He and his children live in 4 and he collects rent on the other 2 to live on. He is getting hammered.

He lived and worked in Canada most of his life but returned to Italy because his daughter married an Italian.

Now he desperately wants to return to Canada, but it's impossible to sell now.

Frank G.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Identical Twins Camille & Kennerly Perform Game of Thrones Theme on Harp

Posted: 18 May 2012 10:51 PM PDT

The Gorgeous Camille and Kennerly, A.K.A Harp Twins, played they're Electric Harps the intro to Game of Thrones theme (Electric Harp Duet).

It's dorky as all hell, especially since these are electric harps and they're in costume, but hot damn, it sounds great. Like the mid-90s PC role-playing game based on Game of Thrones we never got.

Weekly Address: Congress Must Move Forward, Not Back On Wall Street Reform

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, May 19, 2012

Weekly Address: Congress Must Move Forward, Not Back On Wall Street Reform

President Obama discusses the reforms to Wall Street that he put in place to protect consumers and make Wall Street play by the same set of rules -- and calls on lawmakers to finish implementing these reforms so that we can prevent excessive risk-taking and help create an economy that is built to last.

Watch the President's weekly address:

President Barack Obama tapes the Weekly Address in the Grand Foyer of the White House, May 16, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

Weekly Wrap Up

Your quick look at this week on Whitehouse.gov:

Fight for Your Seat: President Obama traveled to New York City to deliver his first commencement address of the year at Barnard College, one of the famous "Seven Sisters" private female liberal arts college. His first piece of advice to the graduates was: Don't just get involved. Fight for your seat at the table. Better yet, fight for a seat at the head of the table.”

Celebrating Soccer Champions: On Tuesday, President Obama welcomed the L.A. Galaxy to the White House to congratulate the team on their 2011 Major League Soccer Cup Championship. The star-studded team won a tough championship match after going undefeated at home all season long, and as President Obama noted, “You combined star power, hard work; it paid off.”

What Comes with the Badge: President Obama visited the U.S. Capitol for a ceremony where he paid tribute to law enforcement officials who were killed in the line of duty in the previous year. “Every American who wears the badge knows the burdens that come with it – the long hours and the stress; the knowledge that just about any moment could be a matter of life or death. You carry these burdens so the rest of us don’t have to,” the President said, acknowledging the bravery and sacrifice of all of those who serve as law enforcement officers across our country.

Above and Beyond: On Wednesday, President Obama awarded a Medal of Honor for valor above and beyond the call of duty to Leslie H. Sabo, Jr., an Army Specialist who died while serving in Cambodia in 1970. In honoring Sabo, who received the award posthumously, President Obama also paid tribute to those who served alongside him in the Vietnam era: “This medal is bestowed on a single soldier for his single courage. But it speaks to the service of an entire generation, and to the sacrifice of so many military families.”

Spruce Street at Taylor Gourmet: President Obama joined Small Business Administrator Karen Mills at Taylor Gourmet, a quickly expanding hoagie shop in Washington, D.C. for a roundtable with the business' owners. President Obama discussed his To-Do List for Congress which includes passing legislation to help hard working small business owners create jobs by giving them a tax credit for new hires and tax relief for investments they make.

Fighting Global Hunger: At Friday’s Symposium on Global Agriculture and Food Security, President Obama announced that leaders at the G8 meeting this weekend at Camp David would devote a special session to the chronic hunger facing nearly 1 billion people around the world. G8 and African leaders will launch a major new alliance with private sector partners with a clear goal of reducing hunger and lifting 50 million people out of poverty by investing in Africa’s agricultural economy.

West Wing Week: Your video guide to everything that's happened this week at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue: Watch here.

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Seth's Blog : Where's the heat?

Where's the heat?

Is that your goal? To find the next hot thing? Do you want to buy it, sell it, use it, eat it?

In every industry where there's fashion (which is every industry), people spend an enormous amount of time looking for heat. It defines the cutting edge, determines what's in or out, what's hot or not.

Two things worth considering:

a. the hot thing isn't always the thing that's aligned with your goals. Sure, sometimes the most profitable item is also the hot item of the moment, but for many companies, market share or profitability or utility has not a lot to do with being on the cutting edge of fashion. And as a user, the hot item of the moment isn't necessarily the thing that will create value or even identify you as truly hip.

b. The cycle of hot keeps getting shorter.

You can chase this, but it's not free, and it might not get you where you want to go.

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 18 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Merkel to Approach Greece with "Growth Proposals" while Asking for Referendum on Euro; Elections Provide Yet Another Attempt to Snatch Defeat From Jaws of Victory; New Democracy Leads Latest Poll

Posted: 18 May 2012 12:36 PM PDT

Greek elections are set for June 17th following the impasse of the last election where no majority government formed.

The "Destroy Greece to Save the Euro" clowns led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel are out in force hoping to turn the vote into a direct referendum on the Euro. The election is of course a direct referendum on the Euro, but Greek citizens are under three Fantasyland ideas.

Three Fantasyland Ideas

The euro is a good thing for Greece
It is possible for Greece to stay on the euro but default on debt
Greece can recover in the eurozone

Merkel is doing her best to convince Greeks that number 2 is not possible and she is correct on that score. She is also promoting the Fantasland positions numbers 1 and 3.

Merkel Asks For Greece Referendum on Euro

MarketWatch reports Merkel Asks For Greece Referendum on Euro.

Germany's chancellor reportedly proposed on Friday that Greece hold a referendum on its membership in the euro currency area, increasing pressure on the nation just as Group of Eight leaders are set to discuss the region's debt crisis this weekend.

In a phone call with the Greek president on Friday, German leader Angela Merkel suggested that Greece could have a referendum on the euro when it holds national elections in June, according to media reports, citing a Greek government spokesman.

Whether she actually did make the proposal is in doubt — her spokesman denied it, but the Greek official then reiterated that Merkel made such a request.

Merkel Yields on Growth Measures

As a matter of political expediency (or do I mean political suicide) Merkel-Hollande Meeting Yields Greece Growth Signal

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande said they would consider measures to spur economic growth in Greece as long as voters there committed to the austerity demanded to stay in the euro.

Requests for measures to bolster growth will be "considered" and the European Union may also "approach Greece with proposals," Merkel said late yesterday at a joint press conference with Hollande during his first official visit to Berlin. "Greece can stay in the euro area," and "Greek citizens will be voting on exactly that."

Is Merkel's Strategy Working?

The idea that Germany is going to consider anything for Greece but still more austerity measures is yet another Fantasyland notion. Is proof of her strategy in the polls?

The latest polls show pro-bailout conservatives leading

Greece's conservative New Democracy party, which backs the country's international bailout, has retaken the lead from the anti-bailout radical leftist SYRIZA, a poll showed on Thursday, the first published since a new election was called for June 17.

If elections were held now, New Democracy would win 26.1 percent of the vote compared with SYRIZA's 23.7 percent, according to the MARC/Alpha survey conducted on May 15-17.

Based on this result, New Democracy would win 123 seats, the pollsters said. Combined with the 41 seats projected to be won by the Socialist PASOK, Greece's two major pro-bailout parties would command a 14-seat majority in the country's 300-strong parliament.

Support for SYRIZA appears to have declined after the party refused to join a national unity government with all the other major parties, the MARC poll showed. In the previous survey by the same agency before the coalition talks collapsed, SYRIZA led with 27.7 percent, up seven points on New Democracy.

Money Will Flow Along With Propaganda

For those holding the common-sense position Greece needs to leave the eurozone to recover, this may be a bit disconcerting. However, There is likely to be movement in both directions on the polls and I think this is just a temporary snap-back.

Moreover, Greece is likely to run out of money before the next elections. Then again, if the polls show the Troika-clowns have a good shot at pulling this off, the money will flow right along with the propaganda.

To understand what the battle to "save Greece" is really about, please consider Euro area official sector exposures to Greece in excess of EUR 290bn Total; EUR 84bn Germany, EUR 63bn France, EUR 55bn Italy, EUR 37bn Spain

That link shows this has nothing to do with "saving" Greece, rather it is about saving German, French, and Italian banks (further destroying Greece in the process).

The irony is every bailout attempt so far has done nothing but increase European banking losses. This attempt should it succeed in another bailout will do the same: increase losses. Three years ago total losses might have been on the neighborhood of 40 billion euros.

Look at the losses now. The increased losses were caused by arrogant Troika-clown euroxcrats with asinine positions willing to repeatedly throw good money after bad.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Spanish Bad-Loans Ratio at 8.37 Percent, a 17-Year High; CDS at Record High; Bankia Suffers Huge Losses Purchasing 15.5 Million Its Own Shares to Stabilize Price; Spain Hires Goldman Sachs to Value Bankia

Posted: 18 May 2012 08:46 AM PDT

It's time for another roundup on Spain. Every day is time for another roundup on Spain. Today's report is on bad loans, and complete foolishness at Bankia buying its own shares hoping to stabilize its price.

Spanish Bad-Loans Ratio Hits 8.37 Percent

The Wall Street Journal reports Spanish Bad-Loans Ratio Hits 17-Year High

Bad debts held by Spanish banks rose to a 17-year high in March and the cost of insuring the debt of two major Spanish banks against default hit a record Friday a day after the sector was hit by a downgrade, underscoring the continuing challenges posed by the country's five-year property slump.

The central bank said that 8.37% of the loans held by banks, or €147.97 billion ($188 billion), were more than three months overdue for repayment in March, up from 8.3% in February and the highest since September 1994. The total number of non-performing loans is now almost 10 times higher than the level reported in 2007, just as Spain's decade-high property boom peaked.

The rapid deterioration of the loan books was one of four reasons cited by Moody's Investors Service for its downgrade of the credit ratings of Banco Santander SA, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA and 14 other banks in the country late Thursday.

"Moody's announcement will increase speculation that the Iberian state will be forced to ask for external support in order to effectively tackle its banking crisis," said interest rates strategists at Lloyds Bank WBM.

At 0956 GMT, Spain's IBEX-35 blue-chip index was up 0.5%, following a negative start. Bankia's shares gained 19% after they fell 14% Thursday and had suffered 10 straight days of declines, while those of other banks including also bounced after deep losses earlier in the week.

Bankia Suffers Huge Losses Purchasing 15.5 Million Its Own Shares

For the "oops" file, courtesy of Google translate please note Bankia bought 15.5 million shares to try to stop its collapse

May 17, 2012

Bankia tried unsuccessfully to halt the collapse of its stock market price in the days when the crisis broke out of the entity. The bank bought 15.55 million of shares for 33,250,000 euros between 7 and 10 May, as has been reported to the National Securities Market. The result now is that accumulates heavy losses on these securities, which subtracts capital at a time when the bank is in need of them.

In the previous 30 days, Bankia just had bought just over 5 million shares, according to El Confidential, which was published this morning purchases of shares of the entity.

Bankia has failed in the attempt to halt the collapse, which today continues to fall that have become over 17% to 1.37 euros per share. At these prices, only purchases made during those four days, Bankia suffer losses of about 12 million euros.

But the losses are even greater in the previously performed operations to try to sustain the price at which the entity has accumulated treasury of 86.124 million shares, 4.319% of its own capital. In total, the bank has more than 100 million in losses to the treasury share transactions.

Bankia Share Prices

Today's rally looks pretty good but here is a little perspective on Bankia Share Prices.

Union Silliness

For the "where there's public unions, there's stupidity file" Unions urge Employees to buy shares in Bankia to prevent the collapse of the price.

Bankia unions urge their employees and clients to buy shares in the company to prevent the collapse of its stock market price and help ensure its future, according to a statement of the Boards and Professional Association (CACAM).

Under the slogan 'I buy Bankia. Do you? Are we united? ', These professionals Bankia broadcast a statement following an email I have received, the undersigned, with whom they want to send a message of confidence in the project entity.

Bankia Bleeds Cash

Meanwhile, Bankia bleeds cash and will not respond to questions.

El Economista reports Bankia has lost 1 billion euros in deposits in one week.

Bankia customers have withdrawn deposits worth over 1,000 million euros since the government announced its intervention last week, according to data presented suggest the board meeting yesterday.

On Wednesday, Bankia not respond to Reuters requests asking whether there were bank runs Thursday and no one has commented on the information published by the newspaper El Mundo in its paper edition.

Goldman Sachs Hired to Value Bankia

Please consider Spain Hires Goldman Sachs to Value Bankia

The Spanish government has hired Goldman Sachs to carry out an independent valuation of Bankia, the ailing bank taken over by the state last week, Spanish newspaper Expansion said on Friday.

The U.S. bank will review Bankia's and its parent company BFA's books and determine within a month how much the state should inject to refloat the lender, which had to be rescued after its auditor, Deloitte, identified several gaps in last year's accounts.

Expansion said without citing sources that Bankia's financial hole may reach 8 billion euros on top of the 10 billion euros it needs to set aside to cover potential losses on real estate assets, as required by two financial reforms passed by the government in February and last week.

Is this one of those deals where a consultant is hired to give give a predetermined opinion?

We will find out soon enough because no one can possibly determine "Bankia is a solvent entity". In fact, the entire Spanish banking system is clearly insolvent.

Here's the question of the day: Is there any reason Bankia shares will not or should not trade for pennies at some time in the near future?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Siri, why Don’t You Understand Me? [Infographic]
Epic Translation Fail [Video]
Gale-Force Wind Portraits by Tadao Cern
The 25 Worst Jobs In The World

Siri, why Don’t You Understand Me? [Infographic]

Posted: 18 May 2012 01:20 PM PDT

Apple's Siri (Speech Interpretation and Recognition Interface) was launched in October of 2011 as an integral—and heavily advertised—part of iOS 5, the operating system for the iPhone 4S. Six months later, many users are blown away by Siri's functionality, but not everyone is satisfied. Some users are asking, "Siri, how useful are you really?"

Click image to see a larger version.

Via Thedegree360

Epic Translation Fail [Video]

Posted: 17 May 2012 11:09 PM PDT

An excerpt from the primary level of Korean conversation courses with Christine Jang. All this Korean girl wants it to teach her students how to ask for Coke. "Please gimme coke?" "I wanna coke".

Gale-Force Wind Portraits by Tadao Cern

Posted: 17 May 2012 10:26 PM PDT

Lithuanian photographer and artist Tadao Cern has been working on a series of hilarious wind-pushed portraits entitled, ahem, Blow Job, that depicts individuals enduring gale-force winds directly to the face.

The artist says about the project:

'I wanted to do something very fun for myself and the visitors, just laugh and have a good time. I was surprised that there were so many laid-back people who were not afraid to look funny! Spacious studio was bursting at the seams and everyone was crying with laughter, laughing at themselves and at each other. Everyone (and there were more than one hundred!) who dared to stand up in front of my lens that evening will remember this photo shoot for a long time and have an extraordinary shot in his album'.

Via Facebook

The 25 Worst Jobs In The World

Posted: 17 May 2012 08:13 PM PDT

Graduation is almost here and there are hundreds of terrible jobs you could apply for. We want to know what the absolute worst job is. Vote! (And don't worry, you can't even get any of these terrible jobs.)