sâmbătă, 15 decembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Pro-Union Activist Threatens the Michigan Governor: 'We'll Be at Your Daughter's Soccer Game'

Posted: 15 Dec 2012 03:48 PM PST

Courtesy of the Weekly Standard, please check out the following union thuggery: Pro-Union Activist Threatens the Michigan Governor: 'We'll Be at Your Daughter's Soccer Game'
A speaker at a protest against Michigan's right-to-work legislation said that Republican governor Rick Snyder will "get no rest" from pro-union activists if Snyder signs the bill into law.

"Just know one thing, Rick Snyder: You sign that bill, you won't get no rest," said Rev. Charles Williams II at the Tuesday rally in Lansing, according to Michigan Capitol Confidential. "We'll meet you on Geddes Road. We'll be at your daughter's soccer game. We'll visit you at your church. We'll be at your office."



Following the threats by the Reverend Charles William II to the governor's daughter, state representatives Rick Hammmel and Tim Greimel pandered to the crowd, complaining about union "rights" to being taken away.

Greimnel called the bill the most "anti-middle-class agenda" the state has ever seen.

Really?

I propose this bill was one of the most favorable bills in support of the middle-class that Michigan has ever seen.

The truth of the matter is Collective Bargaining neither a Privilege nor a Right.

Five Ways Collective Bargaining Tramples Various Unalienable Rights

  1. Collective bargaining agreements take away the right of individuals to pursue a career of their dreams void of union affiliation
  2. Collective bargaining agreements force individuals into organizations against the free will of those members
  3. Collective bargaining agreements force union dues out of members who do not even want to belong
  4. Collective bargaining agreements dictate what members can and cannot do with their free time.
  5. Collective bargaining agreements even dictate what non-members can and cannot do with their free time!


Union activists have things ass-backwards. Michigan has suffered mightily because of it. Detroit was destroyed by unions. Jobs fled the state. If that's not anti-middle-class, what is?

I commend the legislature for passing this pro-middle-class legislation that will reduce costs to cities throughout the state, putting more money into taxpayer pockets at the same time.

Public unions only exit via coercion, threats, and vote buying such as that displayed by Rev. Charles Williams II.

Public unions serve no purpose and even FDR agrees. For details, please see Public Union Protesters More Like Greek Extortionists than Egyptian Freedom Fighters; Unions Under Fire in Wisconsin, Ohio, Tennessee; Student Idiocy

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

EU Car Sales Drop 14th Consecutive Month; Car Sales Plunge 20.1% in Italy, 20.3% in Spain, 19.2% in France, 3.5% in Germany, Rise in UK

Posted: 15 Dec 2012 08:58 AM PST

Car sales are up in the UK, but down 10% on average in the EU. Overall sales, including the UK, are down for the 14th consecutive month.

From Google Translate Car sales plunge another 10% in Europe and UK only grows.
In the markets of the European Union, in November, with the same computation of working days in November 2011, highlights the sharp rise of 11.3% for the UK, while other high-volume markets have reduced their records: 3.5% in Germany, 19.2% in France, 20.1% in Italy, and 20.3% in Spain.

From January to November, the scenario is similar, with the UK as the only major market expansion (+5.4%) and Germany (-1.7%), Spain (-12.6%), France (-13.8%) and Italy (-19.7%) in contraction.

The used passenger car market declined 5.6%
These are dismal numbers with pronounced deterioration in Spain, France, and Germany.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Publicat de 1 la 23:04 0 comentarii

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Mistletoe Kissing Prank [Video]

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 10:13 PM PST


YouTube user "Stuart Edge" wondered if the tradition of the mistletoe was still alive. In the middle of their "survey" at BYU, mistletoe appeared above the unsuspecting students.

25 Unusual Airport Toilets

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 09:57 PM PST

Airport toilets are often the first (and last) glimpse we get of a destination, so it's a shame that they're often quite bland. Here's a collection of conveniences that buck that trend, from the beautiful to the bizarre.

Bird's Eye Loo


Tulips from Amsterdam


Back to Nature


Totally Tropical


Wild Thing


Here's Lookin' At You


His 'n' Hers


You Dummy

Full story at  Private Jet Charter
Publicat de 1 la 19:25 0 comentarii

Weekly Address: Nation Grieves for Those Killed in Tragic Shooting in Newtown, CT

The White House Saturday, December 15, 2012
  Weekly Address: Nation Grieves for Those Killed in Tragic Shooting in Newtown, CT

The President says the nation’s thoughts and prayers are with those who lost a loved one during Friday’s tragic shooting in Newtown, CT.

Watch President Obama's weekly address.

President Obama delivers the Weekly Address

 President Barack Obama tapes the Weekly Address in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Dec. 14, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

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Publicat de 1 la 08:04 0 comentarii

Seth's Blog : Empathy takes effort

 

Empathy takes effort

When we extend our heart, our soul and our feelings to another, when we imagine what it must be like to be them, we expose ourselves to risk. The risk of feeling bruised, or of losing our ability to see the world from just one crisp and certain point of view.

It's easier to walk on by, to compartmentalize and to isolate ourselves. Easier, but not worth it.



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Publicat de 1 la 03:28 0 comentarii

vineri, 14 decembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Boomer Demographics and the Unemployment Rate

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 02:08 PM PST

A week ago in Startling Look at Job Demographics by Age I posted the following chart  made with data that I downloaded from the St. Louis Fed.

Employment Demographics by Age Group



click on chart for sharper image

One person suggested the chart was "very misleading" because it did not properly reflect the aging workforce.

However, I did comment at the time 'Boomer demographics certainly explains "some" of this trend'.

I could not quantify the amount at the time because there was no civilian population data on the St. Louis Fed website (at least that I could find).

Since then, I asked my friend Tim Wallace to see what he could come up with, and with a few calls to the BLS he did get the population data from which we could make more accurate assessments. Here are the key comparisons.

2007 vs. Now for Age Group 25-54

  • In 2007, the Civilian Noninstitutional Population for age group 25-54 was 125,978,000
  • Currently the Civilian Noninstitutional Population for age group 25-54 is 124,248,000
  • In 2007, Employment in age group 25-54 was 101,083,000
  • Currently, Employment in age group 25-54 is 94,523,000
  • Since 2007, the Civilian Noninstitutional Population for age 25-54 declined by 1,730,000
  • Since 2007, Civilian Employment declined by 6,560,000

Quantification of "Some"

I can now quantify "some" more precisely: 279% of the decline in employment in age group 25-54 between 2007 and now is due to economic weakness as opposed to shifting demographic trends.

Here is a collection of interesting jobs charts by reader Tim Wallace.
click on any chart for sharper image  


Civilian Population by Age Group



Percent of Work Force by Age Group



Participation Rate by Age Group



Work Force Percent Unemployed by Age Group



Percent of Work Force Employed by Age Group



Civilian Population Not Working by Age Group



Thanks Tim!

Definitions and Notes

  • The participation rate is the ratio of the civilian labor force to the total noninstitutionalized civilian population 16 years of age and over.
  • The noninstitutionalized civilian population consists of civilians not in prison, mental facilities, wards of the state, etc.
  • The labor force consists of those who have a job or are seeking a job, are at least 16 years old, are not serving in the military and are not institutionalized.
  • There are strict requirements on what constitutes "seeking a job". Reading want-ads or jobs on "Monster" does not count. One actually needs to apply for a job, go on an interview, or send in a resume.
  • Please see Reader Question Regarding "Dropping Out of the Workforce" for an explanation of how the BLS determines someone is actively seeking a job.

The final chart above shows the number of people in each age group that is not working. Recall that, "not working" and "unemployed" are different things.

I would prefer a more simple definition of unemployment: those who want a job but do not have one. Instead, we have definitions that purposely mask (by many millions) the current sorry state of affairs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Dallas Fed Richard Fisher: Fed Risks 'Hotel California' Monetary Policy

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 09:06 AM PST

At least one Fed governor understands the Bernanke Fed's hyper-accommodative monetary policy has no exit.

Today on CNBC "Squawk Box", Dallas Fed governor Richard Fisher complained Fed Risks 'Hotel California' Monetary Policy.
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher told CNBC that he's worried the U.S. central bank is in a "Hotel California" type of monetary policy because of its "engorged balance sheet." Evoking lyrics from the famous song by The Eagles, he said he feared the Fed would be able to "check out anytime you like, but never leave."

Fisher said on "Squawk Box" that he argued against revealing the new inflation and unemployment targets set by the Fed this week, saying he's worried that the markets will become "overly concerned" with the thresholds.

Fisher would not comment on any contingency plans at the Fed should Republicans and President Barack Obama fail to strike a deal to prevent the automatic tax increases and spending cuts from taking effect in the new year.

"What you see is what you get here," Fisher said. "We have a hyper-accommodative monetary policy here ... cheap and abundant money that the Fed has made widely available."
No Exit Strategy

Any rational thinking person understands the Fed has no exit policy. I have stated that for years, most recently in Exit Strategy? What Exit Strategy? just a couple days ago.
Recall when the Fed pretended it was working on an exit strategy to reduce its balance sheet at the appropriate time?

It was a lie then and it's an even bigger, more apparent lie now (which is why you no longer hear Bernanke mentioning it) . The simple fact of the matter is that every Fed asset purchase makes it more difficult to exit.

When interest rates do start to tick up (which could be a while based on Fed statements), interest on the national debt would soar if the Fed unloaded treasuries. Likewise, mortgage rates would soar if the Fed unloaded agencies at a time interest rates were creeping up.

There never was an exit strategy and there never will be one.
Unfortunately, the average Joe on the street has no idea what is happening at all, and one of the reasons is mainstream media is often devoid of rational thinking.

Perhaps this comment by Fisher will wake some people up as to what is happening, but don't count on it.

Hotel California Video

In Tribute to the Eagles, and also Fed governor Richard Fisher I present this video from the Eagle's Farewell Tour.



Link if video does not play: Hotel California

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Publicat de 1 la 23:03 0 comentarii

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Only in Russia - Part 4

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:47 PM PST

These photos capture a side of Russia few outside the country ever get to see, and each image has an interesting story to tell. Russia is a very strange place.

Previous Parts:
Only in Russia - Part 1
Only in Russia - Part 2
Only in Russia - Part 3

How Branded Shoes are Made in India

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:18 PM PST

Be surprised, be very surprised.

What is the Fiscal Cliff? [Infographic]

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:03 PM PST

The "Fiscal Cliff" has been all over the news lately, but what is the Fiscal Cliff, anyways? Find out just what makes up a Fiscal Cliff and how it affects you in this infographic.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via: visual

Zeitgeist 2012: Year In Review [Video]

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 07:23 PM PST


How did the world search in 2012? Google Zeitgeist puts together an uplifting and telling video about the most searched subjects in the world for the year 2012.
Publicat de 1 la 19:29 0 comentarii
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