Central Perk

sâmbătă, 16 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Sinking Yen a "Byproduct, Not a Focus" of Trade Wars Says Japan; G-20 Takes Harder Line on Currencies

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 10:52 PM PST

Japan is in the forefront of the news with ridiculous statements such as a the sinking yen is a "Byproduct, Not a Focus" of its foreign trade policy. I have a simple question "Even if that statement is believable, what difference does it make?"

The answer is none. Regardless, statements from Japanese politicians are not believable in the first place. That helps explain the following Bloomberg headline G-20 Takes Harder Line on Currencies.

Two days of talks between G-20 finance ministers and central bankers ended in Moscow yesterday with a pledge not to "target our exchange rates for competitive purposes," according to a statement. That's stronger than their position three months ago and leaves Japanese officials under pressure to stop publicly giving guidance on their currency's value.

With the yen near its lowest level against the dollar since 2010, policy makers are attempting to soothe concern that some countries are trying to weaken exchange rates to spur growth through exports. The risk is a 1930s-style spiral of devaluations and protectionism if other countries retaliate to safeguard their own economies.

"Politically-motivated devaluations can't sustainably improve competitiveness; they don't solve structural problems and they set off reactions," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said yesterday. "The clear language in the communiqué underlines this unity and will allow the debate in the future to take place with a less excited tone."

Japanese officials in Moscow denied driving down their currency, arguing its fall was a byproduct -- not a focus -- of their effort to revive the world's third-largest economy.

Japanese officials aren't alone in accepting a cheaper currency as good for growth.

Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale said in a speech yesterday that although U.K. central bankers don't "target the exchange rate," there is reason to tolerate any inflation resulting from the pound's six-year decline.

Not all G-20 policy makers want a weaker currency. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in a Feb. 13 interview that "the exchange rate of the euro is broadly in line with fundamentals" and "you cannot really say that the euro is seriously overvalued."

Mathematically Impossible

As I have commented numerous time recently, global currency wars are heating up as every nation believes it can export its way out of a slump.

In spite of statements by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, it's important to note that Weidmann does not set ECB policy. Realistically, Weidmann appears to have as much influence on ECB policy as hawks have on Fed policy (and that is not much).

The ECB wants a cheaper euro, the Fed wants a cheaper dollar, China wants a cheaper yuan, and Japan wants a cheaper yen.

Mathematical reality says that's impossible, yet that is what every country wants to achieve.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Can You Beat a Chimpanzee in a Memory Test?

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 09:32 AM PST

Here is an interesting video showing the ability of chimpanzees to memorize and recall random patterns of light flashes better than what one in a thousand humans could do. All chimps seem to have this recall ability.

Play the video, it's fascinating.

The Financial Times has a related story in Memory of chimps 'far better than human'.

Chimpanzees can far outperform humans in some mental tasks, including rapidly memorising and recalling numbers, Japanese scientists have shown.

At the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting, Tetsuro Matsuzawa, of Kyoto University's Primate Research Institute, showed remarkable videos of chimpanzees displaying mental dexterity that would be way beyond most people.

The star performer among the institute's 14 chimpanzees, a 12-year-old male called Ayumu, has learnt all the numerals from 1 to 19. Several other Kyoto chimpanzees have learnt 1 to 9.

When the numbers flash up in random places across a computer screen and in random order, and disappear after less than a second, the apes can point immediately to the exact locations where the numerals had been, in the correct numerical order.

Prof Matsuzawa said a few exceptional people, such as those with savant syndrome, might be capable of such memory feats but they are far beyond the average human brain. "One person in several thousand may be able to do this," he said. "All the chimps I have tested can do it."

Prof Matsuzawa, who combines the study of wild chimpanzees in west Africa with research using the captive colony in Kyoto, said such a good working memory – the ability to take in an accurate, detailed image of a complex scene or pattern – was an important survival tool in the wild.

For example, the apes can quickly assess and remember the distribution of edible fruit in a forest canopy. Or, when two rival bands of chimpanzees encounter one another, they can assess the strength of the rival group and decide whether to fight or flee.

Lumosity Games

A quick search led me to another video of Ayumu the chimpanzee, this time on Lumosity.Com.

Click on the link for an opportunity to see if you can beat Ayumu in a short-term memory test.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

SEO Blog

How cheap is Cheap Web Hosting

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 10:48 PM PST

Cheap web hosting is basically preferred by many organizations and businesses today, especially those cheap web hosts that extend free domain names. You have to select the most reliable and beneficial service provider for guaranteed efficient technical support and complete uptime. The most important part lies in selecting a service...
Read more »

4 ways how SEO is expected to change in 2013

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 08:09 PM PST

Over the last one year the search scene has changed to a large extend. The year 2012, has proven to be quite eventful due to the shifts in the SEO survival. An enormous crackdown on spammy websites due to the EMD updates was just one of the scathing steps. Google...
Read more »

Weekly Address: Following the President’s Plan for a Strong Middle Class

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Weekly Address: Following the President’s Plan for a Strong Middle Class

In this week’s address, President Obama calls for quick action on the proposals he made during the State of the Union to grow our economy and create jobs, including making America a magnet for manufacturing, strengthening our education system through high-quality preschool for every child, and raising the minimum wage.

Watch this week's Weekly Address.

Seth's Blog : Is a famous thinker better than a great one?

Is a famous thinker better than a great one?

Does a bestselling author have more to say than someone who has written a brilliant book that didn't sell?

Does a tenured professor at Yale deserve more credence than someone doing breakthrough work at a local state school?

If the violinist in the subway has played to packed houses, does that make him better than the previously unknown singer around the next corner?

For physical goods, a trusted brand name certainly increases the likelihood of purchase, because the risk is lower. We figure that Nabisco is less likely to sell us an unflavorful dust cookie than some unknown brand at the health food store. For a new flavor, the brand makes it an easier choice.

An idea is different, though, because the only apparent cost is the time it takes to hear it. (That's not really true, of course).

And yet we hesitate to invest the time to hear ideas from lesser-known sources. It's not fair to the unknown inventor, but it's true.

I think this is changing, and fast. The permeability of the web means that you don't have to start at the top, don't have to get picked by TED or a by a big blog or by anyone with influence. Pick yourself.

It's true that when you pick yourself, people aren't as likely to embrace your idea (at first). That's because the personal risk of hearing new ideas from new places is the fear that our opinion of the idea might not match everyone else's. The real risk of interacting with unproven ideas is the fear that we might not react in a way our peers expect. The desire to fit in often overwhelms our curiosity.

It takes quite a bit of work (and a lot of luck) to acquire a level of fame. The question that might be worth asking is whether or not that effort is related to the quality of ideas underneath. Harvard has been around for nearly 400 years. That doesn't mean the brand name is worth as much as we might be inclined to believe.

Branding started with pottery, beer and biscuits. Now it effects the way we think about ideas, people and even science. Buyer beware.

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 15 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

2012 Export Growth by Country; China and US at Top of List; World Trade Slowdown; Rebalancing at Glacial Pace

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 06:21 PM PST

Inquiring minds are looking at charts from the New York Times that show U.S. Trade in 2012 Outpaced Many Other Countries.

In 2012, United States exports of goods rose 4.5 percent from 2011, a faster rate of growth than that of 10 other major countries but well below the growth rate of Chinese exports. American imports rose 3 percent, but the trade deficit in goods was virtually unchanged. In six of the last seven years, the growth in American exports outpaced that of imports. The United States gained in exports despite declines in trade with some major European trading partners.

Global Export Growth

Export Growth Perspective

A little perspective helps as the trade deficit chart from the New York Times shows.

The US had a trade deficit over $700 billion in 2011 and 2012. That is down from $800 Billion+ between 2006 and 2008 but it is certainly noting to brag about.

World Trade Slowdown

Please consider In World Trade Data, Signs of a Slowdown, a related article by New York Times columnist Floyd Norris.

WORLD trade slowed last year, as major countries like Japan and Germany shipped exports that were worth less than those in 2011. The United States bucked the trend to some extent, but the 4.5 percent increase in exports was far smaller than the 15.8 percent jump in 2011.

Import totals can provide an indication of economic woes, as declining incomes cause consumers to buy less, including fewer items from abroad. Imports fell in Germany, France and particularly Italy. This week, the European Union reported that the euro zone economy declined in the fourth quarter — the third consecutive fall. Germany's economy, which had been growing slowly, also shrank.

Exports plunged in all countries during the crisis, but the trends since then have varied. German exports in 2012 were 3 percent lower than in 2008, while French exports were off almost 8 percent. Japanese and British exports were about 2 percent higher. The United States, by contrast, reported exports of goods in 2012 that were up 20 percent from 2008, and Brazilian exports were 23 percent higher.

Those gains pale next to those of developing Asian economies. South Korean exports in 2012 were 30 percent higher than in 2008, while China bolstered its shipments by 43 percent. Indian exports were 50 percent higher.

Rebalancing at Glacial Pace

To the extent there is any global rebalancing (if at all), the pace is certainly glacial. In regards to Europe in particular, I see no evidence at all. For details, please see ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Wealthy French Eye Belgian Tax Breaks (Everyone in France Should Do the Same)

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 11:38 AM PST

The inheritance tax in France is 45%, in Belgium it's 3%. France has a wealth tax, Belgium doesn't.

Wealthy French have known and used these loopholes for quite some time, but appeal of such schemes is on the rise following massive tax hikes of president Francois Hollande.

Please consider Wealthy French eye Belgian tax perks.

For decades, Thierry Afschrift's boutique tax law practice was among the best-kept secrets of Belgium's wealthy elite, his name passed discreetly between the landed gentry and industrialists in Brussels' leafy suburbs seeking shelter from the kingdom's Byzantine tax laws.

But in the past five months, Mr Afschrift's phones have been ringing off the hook from another clientele altogether – wealthy Frenchmen seeking to set up private foundations in Belgium to protect their family fortunes from onerous taxes imposed by President François Hollande.

"We have loads of people coming every day asking us questions about setting up foundations," Mr Afschrift said from his office on Brussels' upmarket Avenue Louise. Other Belgian tax lawyers say they have been receiving around 10 calls a day from France inquiring about private family foundations.

The key to Belgian foundation law is that it permits the patron to hand over all assets to children as a gift, taxed at only 3 per cent instead of France's 45 per cent inheritance tax. It also avoids France's annual wealth tax, a levy that does not exist in Belgium. To top it off, the foundation's benefactor retains full control of the assets while alive and can set disbursement terms for after their death.

"It is a very good tool to transfer assets gradually and assure the children don't squander that family's accumulated wealth," says Manoël Dekeyser, one of Belgium's most prominent tax attorneys.

"If the children want the money to play at the casino, the foundation's manager can block them from doing so, if he has been instructed to do so by the parents."

Said one lawyer, who asked not to be named to protect his firm: "Unfortunately, Arnault brought greater attention to the foundations system than we would have hoped.

"I would have preferred to keep it very discreet. Rich people know how to find us. They don't need to read it in the Financial Times."

Arnault Effect

Bernard Arnault is the owner of fashion and champagne house LVMH and reputedly Europe's richest man.

French actor Gérard Depardieu stirred up tax debate with a threat to seek Belgian citizenship to avoid Hollande's new top tax rate of 75% on millionaires.

Depardieu, who has been in around 200 films, says he's moving to Belgium to avoid paying a new 75 percent tax on the superwealthy. The move has divided the country and has focused attention on the Socialist government's controversial new tax policy.

The uproar began just before Christmas, when it came to light that Depardieu bought a home in Nechin, a drab Belgian village less than a mile over the French border. Depardieu admitted to establishing a foreign residence to escape new French tax rates.

"It's pathetic really," Prime Minister Jean Marc Ayrault said earlier this month. "Paying taxes is an act of patriotism and we're asking the rich to make a special effort here for the country."

Depardieu shot back at Ayrault in an open letter published in a major Sunday newspaper, Le Journal du Dimanche.

"I am leaving because you consider success, creativity and talent grounds for sanction," the actor wrote. Depardieu said he has paid more than $190 million in taxes over the last four decades. He said he no longer recognized his country and offered to surrender his passport if he was, indeed, so pathetic.

Hollande's Tax Hikes Backfire

Based on the Financial Times article as well as actual moves by the super-wealthy, it appears Hollande's tax policies have already backfired.

For every dime collected, a flood of middle-class and wealthy French are setting up foundations to avoid inheritance taxes and shelter current income as well.

Indeed, any French citizen with an estate to pass on should investigate setting up a private foundation in Belgium to avoid onerous inheritance taxes.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Rio Carnival 2013 - Part 2
Trolling a Roommate on Valentine's Day
The Cost of Online Dating Fraud [Infographic]
Penguin Highway in Antarctica [Video]
Skype’s Headquarters in Palo Alto, California
Production of Snakeskin Handbags

Rio Carnival 2013 - Part 2

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 10:54 AM PST

The Rio de Janeiro street carnival is the world's biggest and most celebrated festival and is attended by approximately 5 million people. Collected here are images from Rio and Sao Paulo, Brazil, as Carnival 2013 comes to a close.

First Part: Rio Carnival 2013

Trolling a Roommate on Valentine's Day

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 09:14 AM PST

This one is good.

The Cost of Online Dating Fraud [Infographic]

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 08:47 AM PST

While 1 in 5 relationships now start online, it's not all chocolates and roses when it comes to cyber-romance. As online dating gets bigger so do the scams. Fake profiles and fraud leaving a trail of broken hearts and empty wallets in their wake.

miiCard, the online identity verification service, has put together this infographic to raise awareness of the need for greater trust on dating sites. See just how much fraud in online dating is growing here.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via miiCard

Penguin Highway in Antarctica [Video]

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 08:26 PM PST

Adorably, the flightless-birds seem to act like cars in traffic, lining up one by one and even stopping and looking both ways before crossing the 'intersection.'

Skype’s Headquarters in Palo Alto, California

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 08:22 PM PST

Skype recently hired architecture and interior design firm Blitz to renovate their current 54,000 sq ft space in Palo Alto. The new space reflects Skype's spirit of innovation in a highly functional yet creative workplace designed to encourage interaction and spontaneity.

Photographs by Matthew Millman and HoffmanChrisman

Production of Snakeskin Handbags

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 07:34 PM PST

Let's take a look inside a snake slaughterhouse at Kapetakan village in Indonesia's West Java province. The manufacturing cost of a bag is $15 - $31 depending on its size. The bag cost a lot more on the market.