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and the past is neat.
It's always like that.
That's because the people who chronicle the past are busy connecting the dots, editing what we remember and presenting a neat, coherent arc. We can publish the history of Roman Empire in 500 pages, but we'd need ten times that to contain a narrative of the noise in your head over the last hour.
Even viral videos are easy to describe after they happen. But if these experts are so smart, how come they can never predict the next one?
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
China Manufacturing PMI Declines at Quickest Pace Since Last August Posted: 23 Jul 2013 08:50 PM PDT The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI shows China Manufacturing PMI Declines at Quickest Pace Since Last August. Key pointsFine Tuning Needed? Regarding Hongbin Qu's comment that "China needs to introduce additional fine-tuning measures to stabilise growth". Mish says "please be serious". China is supposedly growing at 7-8%. Such growth is not sustainable with or without "additional fine tuning". Belief in central planners runs high. Such belief is foolish. We do not need fine tuning, we need to eliminate fine tuners. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
99% Believe the Economic Situation in Spain is Bad; How Much Worse Can This Get? Posted: 23 Jul 2013 06:33 PM PDT According to the latest Eurobarometer, 99% believe that the economic situation in Spain is bad. Via Google translate from La Vanguardia. 79% of Spanish unemployment considered as the main problem of the country and 99% believe that the economic situation in Spain is bad, according to the latest Eurobarometer survey published today. In comparison, 51% on average in the European Union (EU) believes that the main challenge for the country is 72% unemployment and the economic situation is bad.How Much Worse Can This Get? The good news is 99% negative consensus has little room to drop. However, 15% think the economy will improve, 37% think it will worsen, and 46% think it will remain the same. 2% don't know. That score can worsen, and it probably will. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
About that Austerity in Spain: There Isn't Any Posted: 23 Jul 2013 11:23 AM PDT I have long contended there is little austerity in Spain and there certainly isn't much reform either. I now have some numbers to back that up. Via Mish-modified Google-translation from El Economista, please consider personnel costs rise despite full state salary freeze. Despite the 5% snip in public salaries in 2010, the subsequent wage freeze in 2011, the elimination of extra pay in 2012 and the current freeze in Administration salaries, the overall payroll became cheaper by a only 2.1% year-over-year to December last year.When Keynesian clowns point to Spain and say "austerity doesn't work", ask them "where is the austerity?" Also ask "where is the labor reform?" Then ask "where is the pension reform?" Then kindly point out there is little to no austerity, and little to no reform, but there has been massive tax hikes, exactly the wrong thing to do. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Scranton Needs 117% Property Tax Hike to Balance Budget; Simple Truth: Scranton is Bankrupt Posted: 23 Jul 2013 09:25 AM PDT Those looking for the next city to go bankrupt should consider the possibilities in Scranton. The Pennsylvania Economy League projects Scranton could be looking at $18 million deficit, 117 percent tax hike in 2014. Scranton taxpayers could face a 117 percent increase in taxes next year as the city's finances continue to spiral out of control.Inane Discussion PEL's proposal to raise property taxes is absurd. So are proposals for a countywide tax to bail out Scranton. City bureaucrats and the PEL can hem and haw and piss and moan, but can-kicking exercises, "scoops", and tax hikes will only make the problem worse. It's time for Scranton to face the simple truth. It is bankrupt. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Fools Say "Sell the Gold Rally" Posted: 22 Jul 2013 11:02 PM PDT Lee Munson of Portfolio LLC says "Sell the gold rally". The question for investors and speculators alike is if gold has at long last marked the end of a wrenching nearly two-year pullback from the 2011 highs over $1,900. Lee Munson of Portfolio LLC says any rally marks a chance to make a graceful exit from their positions.Disingenuous or Clueless? I do not profess to know what the price of gold will be at any time, but Munson seems to think he does, so much so that he screams sell after a measly rally. Munson is certainly clueless about the fundamentals of gold. If you don't understand the fundamental driver (and it's not jewelry or central bank selling) please consider Plague of Gold Bears Now Say "Gold Unsafe at Any Price"; What's the Real Long-Term Driver for Gold? Gold outperformed between 2000 and 20010 for a reason. And that reason is global central bank debasement of currency. Gold also outperformed in the late 70s for the same reason, but it did get ahead of itself. Additional Reading
Cash, Bonds, Equities, or Gold? You have to put your money somewhere (and somewhere includes cash). This is not about being a "die hard gold bug". This is about understanding the case for gold as it exists now. The fundamentals of gold are strong, yet sentiment is so extreme that bears says "gold is unsafe at ANY price". Now Munson says this puny rally is a chance to exit. With sentiment this extreme in the face of strong fundamentals and a rally, I like my chances here. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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