Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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India in Serious Trouble (and Gold at the Heart of It) Posted: 01 Sep 2013 11:09 PM PDT Last week India's trade minister, Anand Sharma, came out with a laughable suggestion: RBI should consider monetizing gold. India's central bank should look into the possibility of monetizing gold holdings, trade minister Anand Sharma said on Thursday, in the latest proposal aimed at combating a yawning current account deficit that has hammered the rupee. It was not immediately clear whether Sharma was referring to the 557.7 tonnes of gold the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) holds in its own reserves, or gold in private hands. He did not give more details of how the proposal would work. India has the world's third largest current account deficit (CAD), which is approaching nearly $90 billion, driven in large part by a huge appetite for gold imports. The deficit has helped undermine the rupee, the worst performing major currency since May. Any talk of using the country's gold to help meet India's international obligations revives memories of a 1991 balance of payments crisis—when India flew 47 tonnes of gold to Europe as collateral to avoid a sovereign debt default. In comments published by The Hindu newspaper last week, David Gornall, chairman of the London Bullion Market Association, said India could raise $23 billion by swapping gold for a payable currency for a period of its choice, while remaining the long-term holder of the gold. Free Money? I am not sure which is sillier 1) proposing selling gold or 2) Proposing India could get $23 billion in free money by swapping gold while retaining ownership. India Might Buy Gold From Citizens to Ease Rupee Crisis Reuters picked up on this story in an equally convoluted report India Might Buy Gold From Citizens to Ease Rupee Crisis India is considering a radical plan to direct commercial banks to buy gold from ordinary citizens and divert it to precious metal refiners in an attempt to curb imports and take some heat off the plunging currency. A pilot project will be launched soon, a source familiar with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) plan told Reuters, although the idea was met with some scepticism. India has the world's third-largest current account deficit, which is approaching nearly $90 billion, driven in a large part by appetite for gold imports in the world's biggest consumer of the metal. That has played a major role in driving the rupee to a record low. "We will start a pilot project among some banks where we will allow them to buy back gold from individual households," the source, an official familiar with the central bank's plan, said. "This will start soon, we have discussed (it) with banks." Radical Plan With Scant Details Somehow India wants to buy gold from citizens, and it also wants to sell it (or sell gold bonds supposedly backed by gold). Details are scarce but it safe to conclude that the scheme is preposterous no matter what it is. Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with this comment "The Indian government is instituting one stop-gap measure after another. Buying gold from its citizens? For rupees? Don't make me laugh...Indians buy gold to get out of the rupee" Stop-Gap Measures In his post covering Stop-Gap Measures by India's Government, Tenebrarum stated ... It also seems likely to us that some traders are worrying that India's government might do something stupid about its gold reserves or the gold held by its citizens. This worry is definitely justified, as India's government has so far done nothing but institute stop-gap measures to halt the slide of the rupee and the deterioration of the country's current account. Not a single step has been taken that would actually be required: bold reform is needed, but it is politically unpopular. And so the government takes one useless emergency measure after another – and it is definitely eying gold as the next vehicle to do something stupid with. Should India try something with gold, it is perfectly safe to conclude no matter what the plan is, the plan will fail. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Terrorists Won the War on Terror; 74% of Pakistanis View US as Enemy, 60% Have No Confidence in Obama Posted: 01 Sep 2013 11:16 AM PDT Eric Tillberg, writer on Policy Mic says The War On Terror is Over, and the Terrorists Won. After the first two shots of the War on Terror on September 11, 2001, the first major battle of the war occurred, and was lost, on October 26, 2001. This was the day the PATRIOT Act was signed into law by President Bush. Terrorists, by killing 3,000 people in a spectacular fashion, goaded the United States into compromising its values and betraying its citizens. As a followup, the terrorists won another victory with the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security on November 25, 2002. This department gives a much more menacing facade to the federal government and proved to be the moment when American citizens got the idea that they were viewed as the enemy by their own government. Defeats continued with the establishment of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), representing an increase in funding for an already bloated (and misnamed) Department of Defense. By this point, the American idea was on life support with little hope of reversal. The final blow that rang the bell of defeat for our nation was PRISM. Although PRISM began in 2007, we have only recently learned of its existence thanks to Edward Snowden. The defeat of America in the War on Terror provides an excellent explanation for the resurgence of libertarian politics at home. It is a natural reaction, when one no longer trusts the government, to demand the right to keep and use arms and to demand that the government extract itself from most if not all aspects of our lives. We don't only have to look internally to see that the terrorists have won. Al-Qaeda has not gone away and has not been obliterated. In this grand game of whack-a-mole, the moles see our weakening resolve to preserve ourselves and are encouraged by it. The passage of these laws must be seen as propagandistic victories to the terrorists and undoubtedly help in their recruitment. We must rediscover the American idea and begin living by it once again. This would be the best way to turn the tide on the War on Terror. Pakistan and US Drone Policy Shortly after 911, the US had support of the vast majority of Pakistani citizens. Polls now show only 55% unfavorable attitude towards Al Qaeda even as support dwindles elsewhere. 74% of Pakistanis View US as an Enemy A PEW Research survey on Global Attitudes shows 74% of Pakistanis Call America an Enemy. Roughly three-in-four Pakistanis (74%) consider the U.S. an enemy, up from 69% last year and 64% three years ago. And President Obama is held in exceedingly low regard. Indeed, among the 15 nations surveyed in both 2008 and 2012 by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, Pakistan is the only country where ratings for Obama are no better than the ratings President George W. Bush received during his final year in office. Moreover, roughly four-in-ten believe that American economic and military aid is actually having a negative impact on their country, while only about one-in-ten think the impact is positive. Only 17% back American drone strikes against leaders of extremist groups, even if they are conducted in conjunction with the Pakistani government. Pakistani Views of US, OBama Unwinnable War Terror is a method. It is not possible to win a war on a method. And because US drone policy kills many innocent people as did senseless invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, more people resent US aggression now, than before 911. Place yourself in the shoes of the average Pakistani who has lost a friend or family member in drone attacks. Would you think the US was an enemy? Of course you would. Would you view those drone attacks as an act of terror? Of course you would. The US is making enemies hand over fist with its drone policy (which itself is an act of terror killing innocent civilians along the way). How can you when a war on method, especially when you use the method yourself? Is Obama another Bush Clone? Please also see Is Obama Another Bush Clone? Another Nixon Clone? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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6 Google Analytics Filters I Couldn’t Live Without!

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6 Google Analytics Filters I Couldn’t Live Without! Posted: 28 Aug 2013 03:54 AM PDT I have been using Google Analytics for a long time now, and every week it continues to change and improve, which is great. During that time, I have constantly kept and updated a library of filters, advanced segments and dashboards that I can call upon when the time is right to allow me to do what is required. Recently it occurred to me that it might just be me who does this (I hope not!), so I wanted to provide you with a list of filters that I use on a regular basis. This may turn into a series depending on the success of this post, but let’s start with those filters. IP Exclusion This is a filter that I rarely see used when I dig into a pre-existing Analytics account, yet it’s one that could skew your data the most. Generally, the majority of your workforce will visit your website whilst in the office, and if some people are working on it all day, they definitely need to be removed from the profile. How do you filter out your IP Address in Google Analytics? Well, Google has created a handy online tool to help make the process really easy. First you need the start of the IP range, which could look like this:  63.212.171.1. You also need to have the end of the range, for instance 63.212.171.254. Now you want to exclude any visits to your website from an IP address within the range shown above. Now you have that data, go over to Google’s handy IP Address Range Tool and generate the RegEx that you need. It should look something like this: ^63\.212\.171\.([1-9]|[1-9][0-9]|1([0-9][0-9])|2([0-4][0-9]|5[0-4]))$ The next step is to create a filter within Google Analytics: Custom Filter Exclude Filter Field > IP Address Filter Patter > Add your RegEx Case Sensitive > No Hit save, apply it to the relevant profiles, and you will have removed all visits from those IPs. If you haven’t already done this, then I would highly recommend that you go and implement it. Handling Webmail If you have been looking through your GA account, you might have seen that some of your referral traffic is coming from Webmail. Ideally, you want all your email traffic to be consolidated as an email referrer. We can do this using a 2-step filter process. The first step is to consolidate all the webmail providers to a campaign source using the filter below. Custom Filter Advanced Field A -> Extract A > Campaign Source > mail.*\.(.+)\..{2,4}|mail-|inbox\. Field B -> Extract B > Campagin Medium > ^(referral)$ Output To -> Constructor > Campaign Source > webmail Field A Required > Yes Field B Required > No Override Output Field > Yes Case Sensitive > No Now that we have consolidated all the webmail to a specific output (webmail), we take that and add it to the email Medium using the filter below. Custom Filter Advanced Field A -> Extract A > Campaign Source > ^(webmail)$ Field B -> Extract B > Campagin Medium > ^(referral)$ Output To -> Constructor > Campaign Medium > email Field A Required > Yes Field B Required > No Override Output Field > Yes Case Sensitive > No Using these filters together will attribute all email traffic received to a single email medium, making it easier to analyse your data traffic. Sub-Folder Profiles Most of us like to look at certain sections of a website in more detail, especially if that is your area of interest within the business. Using a sub-folder filter, this can be done easily and for as many folders as you feel are necessary. Custom Filter Include Filter Field > Request URL Filter Pattern > ^/folder/$|^/folder Case Sensitive > No Regional Domain Profiles I have used this recently, where we have been using a single GA code across multiple international websites. With this implementation, it was imperative that we had separate profiles for specific regions to ensure granular reporting. To do this, each profile had to have a filter applied that only tracked traffic from a specific hostname. Custom Filter Include Filter Field > Hostname Filter Pattern > ^domain\.at|\.domain\.at Case Sensitive > No Add a trailing slash This filter might not be used in all cases, and I am sure could be modified to your needs, but I have used it recently and thought it would be a good one to provide you with. On some websites, you are able to access a page from multiple versions of the same URL /example or /example/ or even /example/index.html. All of these URLs are showing the same content and GA code. Ideally these would be resolved to show a single URL, which would help from a user perspective, but also from an SEO perspective. Sometimes this is not possible, so we need to be able to consolidate these URLs to provide amalgamated data. This can be done using the following filter: Custom Filter Advance Field A -> Extract A > Request URL > ^(/[a-z0-9/_\-]*[^/])$ Field B -> Extract B > - Output To -> Constructor > Request URL > /$A1/ Field A Required > Yes Field B Required > No Override Output Field > Yes Case Sensitive > No Force Lowercase Similar to the previous filter, this may not be required in all instances, but is another way of combining data from multiple URLs for the same page. This filter will amalgamate all data from those URLs that have both upper and lowercase variations into a single lowercase version. This allows ease of reporting as well as consistent data. Custom Filter Lowercase Filter Field > Request URL Do you use any of the filters that I have mentioned above? What filters do you use on a regular basis? Any that I have missed out that you feel would be a good addition? Do you have a go-to list of Google Analytics filters you use? I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts in the comments below or on Twitter @danielbianchini. © SEOptimise 6 Google Analytics Filters I Couldn’t Live Without!

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Japan Seeks to Hike Taxes then Waste Money on Stimulus to Make Up for Decline in Spending; Currency Crisis Awaits Posted: 31 Aug 2013 06:01 PM PDT Politicians and economic illiterates frequently assume two wrongs make a right. Here is a case in point: Japan panel backs sales tax hike coupled with stimulus. Japan's government won backing for a controversial decision to raise the national sales tax in 2014 after influential members of a special advisory panel said the step would not threaten economic recovery or business confidence if it was coupled with other stimulus. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe convened the panel to hear a wide range of views on whether to press ahead with a planned hike in the consumption tax to 8 percent from the current 5 percent in April. Unless Abe changes the plan, the sales tax will be raised to 10 percent in October 2015. Advocates, including officials at the Ministry of Finance, say raising the tax would be an important first step in trying to lower public debt, which is the worst among industrialized countries at more than twice the size of Japan's economy. When Japan last hiked the sales tax from 3 percent to 5 percent in 1997, consumer spending tumbled by 13 percent in the quarter after the higher tax went into effect. That was followed by a recession. Two Wrongs Don't Make a Right When you cherry pick a panel, and the panel has a pre-determined outcome, the answer always comes out the way you expect. Thus Abe's blue ribbon panel concluded tax hikes won't hurt. And for good measure, if by some chance they do, the panel suggested wasting those tax dollars on stimulus. Good grief! Appearances of Success  Appearances of success are not the same as success. It is conceivable that such a preposterous plan might "appear" to work for the simple reason Japan's two lost decades might have finally played out on their own accord. However, that will not make the policy successful in any real sense. Raising taxes and then wasting the money are never good solutions to anything. Two wrongs don't make a right. Similarly, economists currently praise Abe's move to weaken the Yen. The Japanese economy is strengthening, but what if it was about to anyway? More importantly, it's way too early to be singing praises anyway. Japan's national debt is still rising (and that is another reason Abe needs to hike taxes). Currency Crisis Awaits I still think the Yen is going to collapse, and that will hardly be any good for a nation that imports most of its energy and food. A  currency crisis awaits Japan, and when it happens, those singing the praises of Abe will be forced to reconsider (too late of course). Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Berlusconi Threatens to Topple Italian Government if Expelled From Senate Posted: 31 Aug 2013 10:54 AM PDT Former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, convicted of tax fraud, Threatens to Topple Letta If Expelled From Senate Silvio Berlusconi threatened to bring down the Italian government if Prime Minister Enrico Letta's Democratic Party votes to expel the three-time former premier from the Senate. "We're not available to keep the government going if the left decides to prevent the head of the People of Liberty from remaining in politics," Berlusconi told a rally organized by the Army of Silvio supporters' association late yesterday, according to a statement released by the group. Letta is struggling to contain tensions that have strained his coalition government since Italy's top court upheld Berlusconi's tax-fraud conviction on Aug. 1. The Democratic Party, the biggest force in the coalition, has said Berlusconi's expulsion from the Senate is required by an anti-corruption law enacted in December 2012. Berlusconi softened his rhetoric today, saying he "didn't issue an ultimatum" and that he wants the government to continue to govern. Yet in comments broadcast by SkyTG24, he said it's "absurd" to assume that the People of Liberty would remain in Letta's coalition if the Democratic Party forced his removal from the Senate. What About Never? Bloomberg notes "The process to strip Berlusconi of his Senate seat may take weeks or months before an eventual vote in the full chamber is called." The Letta coalition would immediately dissolve if  Berlusconi carried out his threat. The best way to make sure he doesn't is to not have a vote. The second best way would be to have a vote and decide that tax fraud is insufficient grounds to expel someone from the Senate in spite of the law. Either way, there is justice for politicians (and bankers), and there is justice for everyone else. In general, this is the way it is everywhere, but most countries draw the line at conviction. Italy doesn't. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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President Obama's Decision on Syria

Saturday, August 31, 2013   President Obama's Decision on Syria Just now, President Obama laid out the case for a targeted military action against Syrian regime targets as a result of their use of chemical weapons that killed over one thousand people -- including hundreds of children. The President also made clear that this would not be an open-ended intervention, and there will be with no American troops on the ground. While the President was clear on the need for action, he announced he would seek Congressional authorization for the use of force. Watch the President’s statement now in his own words: Stay Connected     Facebook Twitter YouTube Flickr Google+       This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Sign Up for Updates from the White House Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

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