vineri, 11 octombrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Dark Vision for Jobs: Jobless Future? Is It Different This Time?

Posted: 11 Oct 2013 11:50 AM PDT

Moments ago, I responded to a reader James from the UK regarding automation on farms. James commented that he only need one laborer where decades ago it took 25 men to do the same job.

James asked "If we displace 90% of the workforce in the next 100 years - and we could well exceed this, given rapidly increasing levels of automation (with humanoid robots becoming commonplace in this time-frame)  - how will the aggregate consumer afford to consume the average product?  The level of work loss seems likely to exceed the level of new product development."

My Reply to James

History suggests innovation will at some point create more jobs.

We have lost jobs on farms but we gained them on the assembly line. We lost jobs on the assembly line and gained them on the internet. We lost jobs on the internet and ....

And I don't know what's next.
I suspect something with energy but I do not know.

If nothing comes, I expect war.

Dark Vision For Jobs

Just as soon as I replied to James, I noticed another email on the same subject. Reader Andrew asked me to comment on the ComputerWorld article Gartner's Dark Vision for Tech, Jobs.
Science fiction writers have long told of great upheaval as machines replace people. Now, so is research firm Gartner. The difference is that Gartner, which provides technology advice to many of the world's largest companies, is putting in dates and recommending immediate courses of action.

The job impacts from innovation are arriving rapidly, according to Gartner. Unemployment, now at about 8%, will get worse. Occupy Wall Street-type protests will arrive as early as next year as machines increasingly replace middle-class workers in high cost, specialized jobs. In businesses, CIOs in particular, will face quandaries as they confront the social impact of their actions.

Machines have been replacing people since the agricultural revolution, so what's new here?

In previous technological leaps, workers could train for a better job and achieve an improvement in their standard of living. But the "Digital Industrial Revolution," as the analyst firm terms it, is attacking jobs at all levels, not just the lower rung. Smart machines, for example, can automate tasks to the point where they become self-learning systems.

Smart machines "are diagnosing cancer, they are prescribing cancer treatments," said Kenneth Brandt, a Gartner analyst. These machines "can even deliver [treatment] to the room of the patient."

Gartner sees all kinds of jobs being affected: Transportation systems, construction work, mining warehousing, health care, to name a few. With IT costs at 4% of sales for all industries, there's very little left to cut in IT, but there is a great opportunity to cut labor.

The companies on the leading edge of this trend include Amazon, which spent $775 million last year to acquire Kiva Systems, a company that makes robots used in warehouses. Google is also on the forefront, with its effort to develop driverless cars. Gartner applies a broader template, and says that the jobs most susceptible to machine replacement involve a range of back-office functions, including transactions, specialization, objectivity, high control, high scale, compliance and science.

This shift will affect employment, said Brandt, at Gartner's Symposium ITxpo. "We believe there will be persistent and higher unemployment."
Is It Different This Time?

Is it different this time? Is Gartner right? Or is innovation-history right?

I have commented numerous times, as early as 2009, if not before, to expect "structurally high unemployment for a decade".

Nonetheless, I have been generally optimistic over longer periods of time. History suggests some innovation will create jobs.

Is innovation-history right? Even if so, will jobs arrive in time? If not, war-history suggests a far darker view.

Are the optimists or the pessimists correct?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Canadian Reader Comments on Outsourcing, Automation and Ten "Real" Problems With the US Economy

Posted: 11 Oct 2013 10:28 AM PDT

In Ten "Real" Problems With the US Economy I took a look at complaints by Paul Craig Roberts that outsourcing was the "real" problem behind the crisis.

I dismissed Roberts' claim, while listing ten real problems, only one of which (warmongering) noted by Roberts.

Ten Real Problems

  1. Fractional Reserve Lending
  2. The Fed
  3. Lack of a gold standard
  4. Deficit Spending
  5. Public unions
  6. Davis Bacon and prevailing wage laws drive up costs
  7. Disability fraud
  8. Warmongering
  9. Politicians get into bed with corporations, unions, and crony constituents
  10. Lack of incentives to hold down costs on medicare, food stamps, and entitlements

I stated "If you fix the first four or five, most of the rest of the problems will be fixed automatically."

Comments From a Canadian Reader

Reader Martin, from Canada, thought I should have emphasized one of the points I made about outsourcing. Martin writes ...
Hi Mish,

I am a bit addicted to your Blog, and love your different points of view, so thank you.

Sometimes you make some small points/comments that actually need to be in bold, I found this comment by you particularly interesting:

"As for the loss of manufacturing jobs, I would point out that even China is losing them - to automation."

You are very right! A very close friend of mine designs systems and programs automation (robotics) for a large electronic manufacturer headquartered here in Toronto, Canada. I told him that he chose a great line of work based on what I have read on your Blog. They also have manufacturing and contracts with companies in China. Recently on one of his trips to China he visited one of these plants and found it was totally automated (they build components for solar panels, which are then sent to Canada to be "built-in Canada", which is another story altogether). He was amazed that in China of all places with all of their "cheap labour" they would automate an entire plant! While going over the design and systems he worked closely with the owners, they told him that true labour costs were growing exponentially and they wanted to get a head of the curve. Well turns out more and more of these plant owners are going this way, a true sign of the future. 
It's also very neat to see that these entrepreneurial Chinese are using contracts with big western companies to gain access to experienced manufacturing process and talent, pretty smart if you ask me.

Cheers,
Martin
Thanks Martin. Outsourcing is a scapegoat for the real problems I mentioned.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Life Before Kids vs Life After Kids

Posted: 11 Oct 2013 07:10 PM PDT
















Facebook profile photo, before kids



After kids



Concerts, before kids



After kids



Meeting up with friends, before kids







Charity, before kids



After kids



Getting into clubs, before kids



After kids



Playing guitar, before kids



After kids



Your purse, before kids



After kids



Grocery shopping, before kids



After kids



Who calls you daddy, before kids



After kids



Your partner in crime, before kids



After kids



Road trips, before kids



After kids



Sex, before kids



After kids



Your cat, before kids



After kids



5 Dos and Don'ts of International SEO - Whiteboard Friday

5 Dos and Don'ts of International SEO - Whiteboard Friday


5 Dos and Don'ts of International SEO - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 10 Oct 2013 04:10 PM PDT

Posted by Aleyda

Many companies that wish to market to international audiences make the mistake of simply translating their content and redirecting users, not realizing that their standard messages won't always resonate with other cultures. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Aleyda Solis guides us through five things we all need to keep in mind as we think about how to establish an international SEO process.

Note: In the spirit of international SEO, this Whiteboard Friday was also recorded in Spanish. If you'd like to watch that version instead, you can find it on Aleyda's site.

Nota: Dentro del espíritu del SEO Internacional, este "Whiteboard Friday" también fue filmado en Español. Si deseas ver esta versión, puedes encontrarla en el sitio de Aleyda.

For reference, here's a still of this weeks' whiteboard!

Video Transcription

Hello Moz fans. It's a pleasure to be here today. I am here to talk a little about international SEO, five dos and don'ts that I see happening all the time. I would like to share them with you as an extension of my MozCon presentation about this topic.

The first one is to identify all the resources for your international SEO process from the beginning. This is very, very important that you advise your client, even if it's not a pure SEO type of thing to do, or maybe some of the aspects that they need to take into consideration, not necessarily from an SEO perspective, it is important that you are a consultant for him. You say, "Hey, please be aware that in order to go international, at some point you will need native support. You will need to reply to your clients in the appropriate language. You will also need to be mindful about international deliveries if these are tangible products to be sent; the pricing, the currency, language, cultural factors, regionality factors. If it is language targeting, country targeting... all of these aspects are very, very important. Make sure that these are aligned with the website goal, and if at some point growth is needed, how this is going to grow.

All of these alternative and additional aspects that are not necessarily purely SEO, it's very, very important that you advise your client so he is aware, because at the end, these can also be factors that might affect your work. You want this to be successful of course.

The second one is to plan the growth of your international web presence from the start. Again, it is very important that you identify where your profitable markets would be at the beginning, and where it's better to start from a profit perspective. If you are going to target a specific country because there is enough search volume going on there about your services or products, or if there are not enough, then you will first target all of the language, which is specific landing pages maybe for some countries to test a little bit the market, but not with a full international website version for each one of the countries.

It is very important that you set this very well from the beginning and you are also aware of how you are going to evolve and migrate from one to another. Take into consideration also the pros and cons and the different alternatives from international web structure that I shared through my MozCon presentation. You can check on my slides, and I have also written about them before. You can see I have international SEO checklist that I published in the Moz Blog. You can also check out also in the SEER blog I have already written about international SEO strategy.

You can check the pros and cons of these different alternatives, like ccTLDs, subdirectories, subdomains. Verify if it is not possible, for example, to start with a ccTLD for a specific country, you need to start with a subdirectory, and then see how you are going to evolve from one to the other and how we are going to treat each language or each country so that they can coexist very well, if at some point you are country targeting and language targeting at the same time. These types of things are little things, but they are things that will keep your international web structure clean, consistent, and you will not face issues to growth in the future.

The third one is do not assume the behavior and preferences of your international markets and audience in general. Seasons can be different, the seasonality, the behavior of the users. Do not assume that the top products that you have for your current markets are going to be the top products necessarily for these other markets. Do full keyword research and behavior research. Research your competitors. Research how your audience behaves and what are the types of content that they most like, the formats they consume, the top media. All of these different aspects are going to affect, at the end, your operations and how you are going to promote and publish your content there and connect with this audience. At the end this is what you want. The final goal is to connect, to convert, to get benefits of course. Please be mindful of this. Do not assume anything. Never assume, even if it is an audience that speaks your same language, we wrongly assume that they will behave the same. No, no. Please verify this with all the trends, seasonality specifically, pricing models. All of this very important.

Also, avoid automatic content translations and redirects. If someone comes from Spain, do not automatically redirect the user to your Spanish version, for example. It is better to suggest. Suggest and tell them, "Hey, we have a version that might be more suitable for you." Do not do it in an interstitial or an intrusive way, but in a friendly way. Take a look at how Amazon does it. I also shared an example in my MozCon presentation. In a very friendly way you can alert your user that there might be a better suited version for them. You are friendly with your users and friendly with search engines. You also promote your international versions, because at the end you also want to make the most out of them if you have them, of course.

The same with content. I have seen too many websites where they have just gone to Google and translated, copied and pasted the content and published it on their website. This needs to be done by a real person, a translator, a native person. You can say, "Okay, this costs too much. I am not able to do this." If you start little by little and if you focus on the markets and the products, the most important ones and prioritize them, you do not need to go with an international web version that is a million pages at the beginning. You want to start little by little. It is better that you start and prioritize your international web version little by little, not with a huge amount of content, but good quality, localized content that really connects with the right audience.

The fifth one is measure each international web presence independently, but understand the interaction of each one of them. This is very, very important because you want to set an independent profile from Google Webmaster Tools or the other tools, the search engine that you are targeting and you are working with for the country that you are targeting. So from Webmaster Tools presence, each version should have their own profile there. Also with Google Analytics or your analytical software, each presence needs to have their own profile, again if you are tracking rankings of course.

So it is good that you segment a lot so you are able to verify and validate what the behavior of your international users is per presence and to be able to make the appropriate decisions and validate much better. But at the same time it is good if you can keep also web analytics an overall profile. You can also set the multi-domain tracking so that you can see what the behavior is from one presence to another. If at some point, one user arrived to another and ended up in another version, you can also see this and you can understand these are not two independent visits, but really one visitor going from one site to another.

All of this information I am pretty sure will be valuable. If there's any other type of question that you have about international SEO, please let me know. Please leave a comment. I would love to be able to help. Also, take a look at the InternationalSEOmap.com website that I published from my MozCon presentation. Take a look at the slides and please let me know if you have any questions. Muchas gracias.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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