Central Perk

luni, 25 noiembrie 2013

President Obama Delivers Remarks on Iran's Nuclear Program

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President Obama Delivers Remarks on Iran's Nuclear Program

Addressing the nation from the State Dining Room on Saturday evening, President Obama said that the United States -- together with close allies and partners -- has taken an important first step toward a comprehensive solution that addresses concerns with the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program.

Click here to hear the President's remarks.

9 Lessons from an $11m Marketing Campaign

Posted: 24 Nov 2013 03:15 PM PST

Posted by jamesporter

The John Lewis Christmas 2013 campaign has smashed it virally. Since it launched two weeks ago it's had:

8 million views on YouTube
150k Twitter mentions
70k Facebook interactions

As content marketers, those kind of engagement statistics seem incredible. Admittedly, brand marketers have much bigger budgets, but as content marketers, what can we learn from brand marketers about creating, launching and promoting content?

If you're in the UK, then you will undoubtedly have seen it, but for everyone else, here's the video:

If you're a bit skeptical and think that content marketing and big brand marketing are totally different, then read this quote from industry marketing bible The Drum:

"Shares are the currency of social success and for leading brand marketers discovering how to create and distribute highly shareable content repeatedly and at scale is now at the top of their wish list."

Sounds familiar, right? Basically big brand marketing and content marketing are converging.

Hopefully you've bought into the idea that we're becoming the same industryâ€¦so what can we learn?

Lesson 1: Don't launch on your own site (launch where your target market is)

John Lewis is a big brand, but they didn't launch their campaign on their site. They launched their campaign via Twitter and YouTube.

Why? Because that's where their target market is, that is where they are going to get traction with their audience, and that is where they have the highest chance of virality.

Lesson: Could you launch your content where your target market is? A great example of this happening in the SEO community is Stephen Pavlovich's Definitive Guide To Conversion Rate Optimisation. It's a fantastic piece of content that was launched on Moz and helped to build Stephen's name in the industry.

Pro Tip 1: If you're worried about losing link equity, use the cross domain rel=canonical tag to transfer value back to your site.

Pro Tip 2: If you can't get your content onto a platform where your target audience is, can you use paid promotion to get your content on there?

Lesson 2: Don't make links your main objective

We all want more links. But at Distilled we're now optimising campaigns for other metrics as well.

Question: Would you rather build your brand with new audiences or would you prefer a link from a DA30 site on a page that nobody ever visits and that provides zero referral traffic?

Lesson: Set your content objectives not purely on links or views, but on other levels of engagement. Still factor in links but consider other metrics like sharing, data capture, brand uplift, or online purchases/enquiries.

Lesson 3: Target your content broadly

When you're creating content at the level of John Lewis, then arguably your audience is the entire population.

As content marketers, we've got narrower audiences, but there's a fine line between targeting your content too broadly:

and targeting your content too narrowly:

Lesson: Make sure that the audience that you are targeting for your content piece is large enough to achieve your objectives. Otherwise you have failed from the start.

Pro Tip 1: If you're worried about the reach of your target audience, try and combine several audiences into one content piece. Wiep Knol in his Searchlove 2010 presentation (no longer available, unfortunately) gave a great example of combining several target audiences with his piece the "70 Most Beautiful Churches In Europe," which brought the travel blogging and religious communities together.

Pro Tip 2: Another way you can target content more broadly is geographically. Bingo site TwoLittleFleas has used a US/UK switch on their quiz to broaden their potential audience from 63m (UK population) to 377m (US and UK population).

Pro Tip 3: Another way of targeting your content is including many niche audience groups within a piece of content. This works as the piece of content speaks to pre-existing communities, and their automatic thought when seeing the piece is "that's for me!."

The "From Gospel to Grunge: 100 Years of Rock" piece is not just for people interested in music, it also references various music communities and that will encourage people to engage with the piece.

Lesson 4: Build influencers into your content

John Lewis has embedded an influencer with a massive online community directly into their content. Lily Allen is singing on the ad, which is a pretty clever play from John Lewis considering that she's got 4.3m followers on Twitter.

Lesson: Build influencers into your content launch plan. Ask them to contribute or comment, give them a free trial, or offer them beta access.

Pro Tip: When doing outreach, find people who you can help out. This changes the mindset from "what can this person do for me" to "how can I help this person" (great tip from Marco Montemagno at SearchLove 2013).

Lesson 5: Focus your marketing on innovators/opinion leaders

Hat tip to Seth Godin (and his Purple Cow) for this one. Why did John Lewis launch their campaign online, even though TV is the primary channel? Because online is where innovators and opinion leaders hang out. These are the people that are on the lookout for something new or different. Innovators and opinion leaders have the ability to change the behaviour of the early and late majority.

Lessons: Opinion leaders matter. Use this process from Richard Baxter to find the influencer intersect for your market, and then build relationships with these people as a long term strategy for success in your space.

Lesson 6: Get your creative right (people need to love your marketing)

Didn't you know? Google and other social networks (particularly Facebook), are filtering content through to you based on what they think you'll like. Just because you're publishing content doesn't mean your audience is getting it. (not convinced, read this book).

If other people are reading and sharing though, then your content is likely to get through the filters. So people really do need to love your marketing for it to work.

So, how can you get your creative up to scratch?

If you're just starting out with content marketing, then there are a few things you need to do first:

Manage expectations and educate internally that content marketing plays like this can fail.
Do something small first that requires limited budget. Build confidence. Get buy in from the C-suite. THEN go big!

Pro Tip 1: Mitigate risk. Offset some of the risks of content marketing by emulating the fundamentals of a piece that has ALREADY been successful in a different geographical location or industry.

Pro Tip 2: Need creative inspiration? Check out this great post from Kelsey Libert on creative ideation, or this classic from Larry Kim "How I got a link from the Wall Street Journal".

Lesson 7: Spend more on outreach than you are spending on content creation

The John Lewis campaign cost Â£7m. Â£6m is going to promotion (advertising). Â£1m went to creative.

What ratios are you working on in terms of spend on content creation to outreach? The loud and clear message here is that in brand marketing outreach isn't an afterthought. It's fundamental to the campaign.

Lesson: Double your outreach budget. Do outreach yourself? Spend twice the amount of time on it for your next project.

Lesson 8: Keep your content non-promotional (but plan for sales post-launch)

If people feel that they are being sold to, they are less likely to share. So keep your content as non-promotional as possible.

Lesson: For your next piece of content, strip out your sales focused header and footer, and remove the sales spiel and the 'buy' call to action. This is an example piece of content marketing for Simply Business. As you can see, the content, sharing and utility of the piece is the main focus, not any specific marketing or commercial messages.

Pro Tip: Add remarketing tags to your content so you can promote to your audience at a later date (even if it's just to promote your next content piece).

Lesson 9: Are you creating a reaction with your audience?

What reaction are you stirring up in your audience? Is it curiosity, surprise, sorrow or pride?

Interestingly, John Lewis adverts are deliberately sad and they evoke an emotional reaction with their choice of music and the story.

Lesson: At the concept stage, if your concept doesn't evoke a visible reaction with a small group of users, consider it a no-go. No reaction = No social shares.

Conclusion

As content marketers, we know a lot of the strategies and tactics that brand marketers are using. But there's a big difference between knowing what to do, and actually doing it.

In my opinion, there's still a lot we can learn from brand marketers, specifically in terms of strategy, scale, reporting and measurement, and ultimately in the results they get. I'm excited about the way that our two industries are converging.

If you need more inspiration here are a list of resources that I follow to keep up to date with the creative digital sector, and of how I keep up to date with what people love online:

Ads/PR/content making waves:

Top 20 Most Shared Ads of 2013
AdAge Viral Video Charts (updated each week)
Adage Creativity Pick (updated daily)
Adweek Adfreak
PR Examples (sign up for the email newsletter)
Buzzsumo (my new favourite tool for find out what's big on any website. It's fast, low on bugs and gives you accurate share counts for facebook, G+ and Twitter)

Hope you enjoyed the piece, if you've got any examples of great content marketing or brand marketing that have blown you away, drop them in the comments. Would love to see them.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Seth's Blog : Authority as an excuse for complacency

Authority as an excuse for complacency

"I thought you knew what you were doing..."

One of the principles of being on the bus, in the class or in your seat is that you are along for the ride. The teacher/boss/driver knows what he's doing, just shut up and sit still.

Apparently, we have come to embrace this. It's safer, and easier too. With this worldview, all blame clearly goes to the people in charge, and powerlessness is a seductive habit.

What a shame.

In an industrial setting, giving up our independence in exchange for eager compliance can lead to productivity and thus success. As that age fades, though, our habit of surrender might not pay off.

The internet is an organizing tool, a connection to billions of others. We've been given a keyboard and a megaphone, a way to change the story or the election or the policy. The authority that comes from asset ownership or experience is worth less than ever before, but we are often are eager to defer to it, even when we know that the authority is wrong.

No one can force you to stand up, speak up and make a difference. But if you back off and play along, please understand that whatever happens happened, at least in part, because you acquiesced.

• Email to a friend •

duminică, 24 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Greece's "Meaningless" Debt; Puppies Beg for Treats; Euro Debate Greece Isn't Having; Sisyphean Tasks

Posted: 24 Nov 2013 02:53 PM PST

Greece's "Meaningless" Debt

The Debt-to-GDP ratio in Greece is now at 175% and rising. Recall Troika statements said anything over 120% was unsustainable.

Yet each quarter debt and debt service ratios rise. Now, a new argument has arisen: Greece does not need debt relief because its maturities and payback time are large.

Charles Wyplosz, a professor of economics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, takes issue with that belief in a Bloomberg article The Anti-Debt-Relief Crowd Is Wrong on Greece.

Since Chancellor Angela Merkel's impressive victory at the polls, however, a push-back has begun, most recently from Klaus Regling, the managing director of Europe's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism. He argued in an interview last week that by now the maturities on Greek debt are so long and the interest rate it pays so low that the scale of the debt pile itself has become "meaningless."

This is a new and more sophisticated twist to the usual argument against debt relief, which is that forgiveness risks encouraging chronically undisciplined countries to again run up their budget deficits, safe in the knowledge that whenever debts get out of control they won't have to pay. Both the old and the new arguments are wrong and fraught with risk.
Greek Depression

The expectation that debt relief should follow the German elections was based on a number of immovable facts. The first is that Greece is in the grip of an economic depression that has lasted six years, wiping out 30 percent of its gross domestic product -- the same contraction the U.S. suffered during the Great Depression. Greece is bleeding profusely. The second fact is that after four years of austerity measures designed to reduce Greece's public debt, it has instead continued to grow to 175 percent of GDP. This is despite the 2012 restructuring of bonds held by the private investors, which shaved 30 percent of GDP worth of debt from what Greece owes.

Regling said in his interview that Greece already enjoys concessional interest rates and long maturities on its debt that amount to a form of relief -- and this is true. Last year, the average maturity of Greek debt was extended from about six years to 16 years, as a combined result of the private sector restructuring and new loans from the ESM. The annual interest rate that Greece has to pay on these new loans is low, about 3 percent.

Yet whether Greece can pay the interest on its loans for now is not the issue. Until Greece's nominal GDP growth, currently sharply negative, rises above the interest rate it pays on its debts, these will go on increasing as a proportion of the economy. This is simple arithmetic: Debt service costs add to the debt, the numerator, faster than GDP, the denominator, rises.

It is true that debt relief could prove contagious, but the answer to this objection is: "Yes, and so it should." Greece is not the only euro area economy saddled by an unsustainable public debt.

Greece needs a debt relief package soon or its only option will be inflation, which means leaving the euro area. Even if this is a pessimistic view, it is a very real risk. Merkel must now weigh that risk against the political cost of reversing herself.

Puppies Beg for Treats

Like a puppy begging for a treat, Greek PM Samaras expected to seek debt relief from Merkel.

During scheduled talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Friday, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is expected to ask for a lightening of his country's huge debt, according to a report in Germany's Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

According to the report, Samaras is to point to economic indicators suggesting that Greece will post a primary surplus both this year and in 2014 in a bid to convince Merkel that Greece should be given some debt relief.

Germany has repeatedly ruled out a second debt haircut for Greece. But Samaras is not expected to a seek another writedown on Greek debt, according to German reports. Rather, he is expected to ask for a reduction in the interest rates on Greece's foreign loans and an extension on the maturities.

Still Merkel, is not expected to give in so easily, according to Sueddeutsche Zeitung which reported that the German Chancellor will concede that some economic reforms have been achieved but that much remains to be done. It is expected that Merkel will avoid taking a stance on slow-moving negotiations between Athens and the troika, sources said.

Euro Debate Greece Isn't Having

Begging for treats from an unsympathetic master will not produce any results. Nor will the ostrich approach of sticking one's head in the sand. It's time for an honest discussion about Greece.

Please consider The euro debate Greece is not having

There is no dispute that Greece's current account, from a staggering deficit of close to 35 billion euros in 2008, is nearing balance. But the majority of the correction of the trade deficit is covered by a collapse in imports due to domestic demand almost evaporating after three years of austerity and disposable incomes plummeting by almost a third.

The "internal devaluation" rationale is that, in the absence of the currency devaluation which automatically makes everything produced domestically cheaper to the outside world, you suppress domestic demand with the aim of reducing imports and correcting the trade balance. You also implement cuts in costs which are variable, such as wages, unlike other input factors that further feed the effort to push down domestic demand. This naturally leads to higher unemployment and more people without disposable income further suppressing domestic demand.

Overall, it creates a perfect feedback loop and a concerted effort to sink an economy.

You might think all this is worth it if there is light at the end of tunnel but that is not true in Greece's case. After three years of brutal austerity policies, Greece remains in a heavily overpriced currency for its economic standards.

A research paper by Morgan Stanley published in September puts the fair value of the euro against the dollar for the Greek economy at just over 1 dollar. The same figure for Germany is 1.53 - the currency currently trades against the dollar at 1.35.

A paper by Deutsche Bank (DB) on foreign exchange pain thresholds puts Germany's at 1.79 against the dollar. Simply put, Germany is in a situation where the euro has to appreciate from its current levels by circa 33 percent before it starts feeling any strain on its competitiveness while Greece is already in this position with the euro at its current trading levels.

It is a debate on these plain macro facts that is missing in Greece. Any discussion around the currency has been stigmatized and leads to political labelling. The real question we need to answer is how much of the economy and society are we willing to sacrifice to stay in the euro. And if Greece's conscious decision as a nation is to remain in the euro, is there an actual national plan or we will find ourselves in a perpetual deflationary vicious cycle of low wages, subdued demand and high unemployment because we will remain a services economy with low value added and labour intensive industries?

Questioning the benefits of a currency whose flaws and institutional weaknesses have been so blatantly exposed over the last three years should not earn one a place in the 'drachma lobby'. These questions should be used as the fulcrum for a much needed debate on how Greece will be able to respond to the euro challenges. It is about time we have a debate that extends our horizon beyond the next troika review and loan tranche, above accounting primary surpluses and superficial success stories.

So far, neither the government, nor the opposition are making any contribution towards these pressing issues. If this does not change, Greece's task ahead will remain Sisyphean.

Sisyphean Tasks

The adults are still unwilling to hold a discussion. Germany insists Greece become more German-like but the math says it's impossible.

Prime Minister Antonis Samaras doesn't want another restructuring (for the simple reason he knows Germany will not allow one). Instead he begs for treats, from a master whose only concern is the electorate of another nation.

The fewer treats Merkel dispenses, the more praise she receives at home. Meanwhile the policies destroy Greece.

Mathematical Irrelevance

It's mathematically irrelevant whether the problem started in Greece, or Germany or who is to blame. And regardless of one's stance on bailouts, something has to give. This situation will be resolved in one of three ways.

Three Possible Resolutions

Greece gets substantial debt relief from Germany and Northern Europe
Greece puts up with financial repression for the rest of the decade (or longer)
Greece defaults on the debt and exits the Euro

Germany has ruled out number one.
I highly doubt the people of Greece will put up with economic depression forever

Neither option one, nor option two, solves any structural flaws with the euro itself.

The needed discussion regards resolution three.

Greece should hold this discussion, in a meaningful way or at least tell the people they have selected option number 2. Instead, all we see and hear is how Greece has turned the corner.

Greece hasn't and won't turn the corner until it exits the euro, or the structural problems of the euro are addressed AND Greece gets debt relief.

Violent Hyperinflationary End

Years of economic depression has given rise to the Golden Dawn neo-Nazi party. And the absence of a meaningful discussion about the realities of the situation, coupled with blatant lies about how well Greece is doing, all but ensures a violent hyperinflationary end to this sad saga.

Ironically, the Greek debt writeoff that Germany would not allow, will happen anyway, with Greece, Germany, and Europe all worse off because of the manner in which it happen.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Founder of French Website "Hollande Resignation" Arrested, Car Impounded for "Insulting the President"

Posted: 24 Nov 2013 12:50 PM PST

On charges of "insulting the president", thirty policemen arrested the founder of the French website "http://hollande-démission.fr/" last week and impounded his car according to a translation from Les Observateurs.

The website owner and four passengers were detained for 16 hours. "Démission" means resignation.

Here is a translated excerpt from the "hollande-démission" site that got the website owner arrested.

You get the feeling that things go wrong in France!
You want to change for a better future!
You also want to make your voice heard!
Together, we create movement!

Enter the site Hollande-Resignation to view and / or sign the petition.
Demand the resignation of François Hollande presidency!

...
We acknowledge Mr. Holland has given France a bad image abroad, by deceiving the public on the history of a country, ignoring the respect for local customs.
We acknowledge Mr. Holland have neither national stature or international and does not even have sincere cohesion within his government.
We acknowledge Mr. Holland is not be the president of a people, but a Party of lobbies.
We acknowledge Mr. Holland to impose such visions forgetting the people, and promised reforms and expected while unemployment continues to rise, that pensions will soon have to be paid.
We acknowledge Mr. Holland to take no reform to the country's economic recovery sustainably and stable.
We acknowledge Mr. Holland has ruined FRANCE with taxes and waste

We the people have goals and know perfectly well that there is little chance that François Hollande is found guilty but his dismissal would prevent other disasters or worsening an already critical situation.
Also, we the people, solemnly ask our members to act on our behalf as they have to do to stop the economic, moral and intellectual recession in France fault relaunch growth.

So we create this petition must collect as many signatures so that our members listen and act as they should for our good, for the People.
-
Sign Our Petition
To encourage our members to submit a referendum initiative of Shared
Finally remove the current President of the Republic, François Hollande, for the good of the People. "

THANK YOU FOR YOUR MANY SIGNATURES
Sign the petition

Imagine being arrested for circulating a petition asking Obama to resign. Is it that far-fetched?

Miscellaneous Note:

The website of Acting Man is having technical difficulties. Pater Tenebrarum asked me to pass that note on. No estimated time as to when the problem will be fixed.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Big promises can lead to better experiences

Big promises can lead to better experiences

A $75 bottle of wine tastes better than a $14 bottle of wine. Even if you switch the wines. The promise implied in the price actually changes the way we experience the product.

Two things to keep in mind:

a. Giant promises lead to poor experiences. When you strain credulity and then fail to deliver on the miracle, we won't enjoy it, nor will we trust you again any time soon.

b. The reason we hesitate to make big promises is that we are afraid. Afraid to own it, afraid to be vulnerable in the face of possible disappointment.

Once you make a big promise, you have to work harder to keep it. Easier, it seems, to merely make tiny promises instead.

But the fact remains: Human beings have better experiences when they expect to have a better experience. To hold back on your promise is to deprive your customer of something valuable.

A promise doesn't have to be a grandiose statement, with or without fine print. It can be something as subtle as the music you hear when you walk into a restaurant or the respect a salesperson offers you when you first interact...

[I'm going to disagree with myself about a different sort of case--it is the promise that starts an ongoing experience. A promise just big enough to get me started on something that gets better all the time is the best way to engage, because that ever-improving experience will continue to delight and surprise, increasing my word of mouth and satisfaction. Alas, these sorts of experiences are hard to build and hard to find.]

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sâmbătă, 23 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Nearly Retired? Facing a Huge Increase in Healthcare Costs? More on "Opting Out" of Obamacare

Posted: 23 Nov 2013 12:40 PM PST

Risk of Opting Out

In response to Gambling On No Healthcare Insurance: Is it a Good Deal? Here's the Math; Obamashock! Work More, Get Less! "Money Multiplier Man" replied...

If you get a heart attack, you cannot wait until open enrollment. You need treatment now. And the hospital will send you a bill for $92,000. So if you are without insurance, you're in big trouble.

That is precisely the risk (actually one of them). Yet, how likely is that scenario for someone under 30 and in good health? For those in good health, an auto accident may be more likely. Still - accidents happen.

But for someone with little money or assets, why not take the chance? Bankruptcy is always an option.

Ultimately, this line of thinking may cause millions to opt out. And it is not just the young who will opt out.

Nearly Retired? Facing a Huge Increase in Healthcare Costs?

Reader Lynn faces that unwelcome prospect.

Her solution, yet one she really would prefer not to be forced to make, was to "opt out" and pay the penalty.

Lynne writes ...

Hello Mish,

Your articles are always a well-written source of insight, wisdom and common sense for me. Thank you for providing excellent current event commentaries!

I am a 61 year old self-employed woman who received notice from Anthem Blue Cross on November 4th that my individual health insurance plan was being cancelled because of the "Affordable" Care Act. My health plan currently costs $225 per month and I am happy with it. The notice goes on to say that unless I elect something else by December 15, 2013 I will be automatically enrolled in a new ACA-compliant health plan at a cost of $530 per month, a 136% percent increase in premium. My annual health plan cost will increase from $2,700 to $6,360 for 2014.

The bottom line for me is a choice between reducing the amount of my retirement plan contributions by $3,660 per year or going without health insurance and paying the penalty. As a self-employed person who couldn't afford to start saving for retirement until my mid-forties, I'm equally afraid of either choice.

In trying to understand what caused health insurance plans to skyrocket in cost, I found out that to be ACA-compliant they must now cover things like maternity care and pediatric dental -- even if you're a 61 year old empty nester!

After researching my state's exchange web site it appears that I'm ineligible for any premium subsidies or cost-sharing assistance. My husband's income (he's on Medicare) must also be counted and our combined income is over the $62,040 threshold. And after speaking with my long-time insurance agent, there aren't any other health insurance options available to me next year for much less than $530 per month.

So, what to do? I'm healthy now and I'll be eligible for Medicare in less than four years, can I make it that long without a serious ailment? I'm inclined to go without health insurance, even knowing it's a huge financial risk. But so is not having enough retirement savings.

Update: this week I received another notice from Anthem Blue Cross. They're allowing me to opt into continuing my current health coverage through February 28, 2014. Of course I've already signed up for this, but it only postpones my gut-wrenching decision by two months.

The Obamacare mess reminds me of the 2008 presidential platform slogan "Hope and Change" -- his changes have me hoping that US citizens can regain freedom from a meddling, control-freak government.

Thanks again for your insightful writings,

Lynne

Reader Lynne provides yet another reason to "opt out" and pay the penalty. Ultimately, how many will opt out?

We will find out within a couple of months.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

UKIP "Last Best Hope for Britain"; May 2014 European Parliament Vote: What Shift is Taking Place? Political Earthquake?

Posted: 23 Nov 2013 09:36 AM PST

One of the UK's wealthiest men has pledged "whatever it takes" to ensure the UK Independence Party triumphs in the 2014 European Parliament elections.

The BBC reports Tycoon Paul Sykes backs UKIP European election campaign

Eurosceptic Paul Sykes said UKIP was the "last best hope for Britain" and he would help fund its election campaign.

Mr Sykes, who has formerly backed the Conservatives, made donations to UKIP between 2001 and 2004. His latest funds will pay for UKIP's advertising. UKIP leader Nigel Farage said Mr Sykes' backing was a "significant boost".

Mr Sykes, who is estimated to have a fortune of around £650m, has given no indication of how much he is prepared to donate on this occasion, but said he believed the European elections were "the one last chance to stop the gradual erosion of our national independence".

"Nigel Farage and UKIP are the last best hope for Britain. I am prepared to do whatever it takes to propel them to victory next year."

He said he hoped success for UKIP at next year's election would lead to an early referendum on the UK's membership of the EU rather than "hanging about to 2017".

"I think it's time to step up and bring the referendum forward to 2015," he said.

May 2014 European Parliament Vote

To help understand what's at stake, Wikipedia reports the European Parliament Elections will be held in all member states of the European Union (EU) between 22 and 25 May 2014, as decided unanimously by the Council.

It will be the eighth Europe-wide election to the European Parliament since the first direct elections in 1979.

What Shift is Taking Place?

I asked reader Bernd from Germany for election comments. He replied ...

Hello Mish,

This is a difficult question.

The large number of Euro-skeptic or EU skeptic parties are considering a common platform, but there is a huge rift within the right.

Last week Geert Wilder's Freedom Party of The Netherlands and Marine Le Pen's FN agreed to form an "Alliance of the Right" for the coming EU elections.

Currently the following alliances on the right are existing already:

"Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists"
"Movement for a free and democratic Europe"
"European Democratic Party"
"Alliance of European National Movement"
"Free European Alliance"
"European Alliance for Freedom"
"Pirates of Europe"
"Christian Political Movement for Europe"
"EU Democrats"

All the above are subsumed under Euro-skeptics and have a total of 115 Seats in the EU Parliament.

To compare:

Christian Democrats (European Peoples Party)   275 Seats
Social Democrats (Party of European Socialists) 194 Seats
Liberals (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats)      85 Seats
Greens (European Green Party)                             56 Seats
The Left (Party of the European Left)                   35 Seats

Already the Euro/EU-skeptics are the third largest group in the EU Parliament.

As measured by seat pickups, I anticipate that the Euro-skeptics will be the winner of the coming elections. However, the rift between the eurosceptics in general and the extreme right wing parties will be more evident and more significant.

Clearly UKIP from UK and AFD from Germany have very little common ground with Golden Dawn from Greece, Front National of France or Freedom Party of Holland.

The latter are clearly nationalistic, anti-Islamic and anti-Semitic, whilst the first two are only EU and Euro-skeptic, not willing to embrace the other, uglier values of right wing parties.

In Germany, in Austria, in France, in UK, in Holland and in Belgium – the countries I frequently visit and over which I claim some knowledge, the EU-Parliament is seen as a joke. It is a show Parliament, with no real power, introduced to give the appearance of Democracy to the EU.

Regardless, the established main stream parties will do everything in their power to prevent the Euro-skeptic block from growing. I expect to see the usual smear campaigns by the media, throwing Euro-skeptics and right wing extremists into one basket. This will work in many places, but not everywhere. For example, smear campaigns are unlikely to work in France and Holland, but very likely in Germany.

I expect that the Euro-skeptic block will grow substantially – however I don't expect the block to be number 2 in overall votes.

Thus, I doubt that the party mix in the EU-Parliament will have any bearing on EU Politics in the years to come. The agenda for the EU is set elsewhere and will be pushed through without regard to the will of the people.

Bernd

UK Prosper Outside EU

UKIP leader Nigel Farage claims Britain would prosper outside EU

Britain would flourish outside the EU, Nigel Farage has said, predicting UKIP will cause a "political earthquake" in European elections next year. Addressing the party's annual conference, he said leaving the union would "open a door to the world".

Political Earthquake?

I strongly agree with Farage that the UK is far better off outside the EU. But what about a "political earthquake"?

If "political earthquake" means policy shifts within the EU, then I would side with Bernd in that nothing much will change in European parliament, adding (but the voices, the debate, and the finger-pointing will all get more intense as Germany and France slide back into recession).

If, "political earthquake" means more UK awareness and eurosceptcism, with an increased likelihood of an up-or-down vote on UK membership in the EU, Farage may very well be correct, and I hope he is.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Almost everything I don't know about social media...

Almost everything I don't know about social media...

I just finished Gary Vaynerchuk's new book. It comes out next week, and I recommend you spend some time with it.

Also! Here's a list of my most popular blog posts of 2012, together with a link to a bound collection of the best of my blog and ebooks from the last seven years...

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luni, 25 noiembrie 2013

President Obama Delivers Remarks on Iran's Nuclear Program

9 Lessons from an $11m Marketing Campaign

9 Lessons from an $11m Marketing Campaign

Lesson 1: Don't launch on your own site (launch where your target market is)

Lesson 2: Don't make links your main objective

Lesson 3: Target your content broadly

Lesson 4: Build influencers into your content

Lesson 5: Focus your marketing on innovators/opinion leaders

Lesson 6: Get your creative right (people need to love your marketing)

Lesson 7: Spend more on outreach than you are spending on content creation

Lesson 8: Keep your content non-promotional (but plan for sales post-launch)

Lesson 9: Are you creating a reaction with your audience?

Conclusion

Seth's Blog : Authority as an excuse for complacency

Authority as an excuse for complacency

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duminică, 24 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Big promises can lead to better experiences

Big promises can lead to better experiences

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sâmbătă, 23 noiembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Almost everything I don't know about social media...

Almost everything I don't know about social media...

More Recent Articles

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

luni, 25 noiembrie 2013

Lesson 1: Don't launch on your own site (launch where your target market is)

Lesson 2: Don't make links your main objective

Lesson 3: Target your content broadly

Lesson 4: Build influencers into your content

Lesson 5: Focus your marketing on innovators/opinion leaders

Lesson 6: Get your creative right (people need to love your marketing)

Lesson 7: Spend more on outreach than you are spending on content creation

Lesson 8: Keep your content non-promotional (but plan for sales post-launch)

Lesson 9: Are you creating a reaction with your audience?

Conclusion

More Recent Articles

duminică, 24 noiembrie 2013

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 23 noiembrie 2013

More Recent Articles

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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