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A parade of tourists is going to walk past your store today. Each is a separate opportunity for you to tell a story, to engage, to make a sale.
A connected community of readers is going to read what you wrote today. A cultural shift will occur among a small group of people because they will share, discuss and engage with each other about what you wrote.
Here's the key question: are you trying to change an individual or are you trying to incite/inspire/redirect the tribe?
Direct marketers traditionally deal with separate events. Each catalog, each clickable ad is a unique transaction. In the world of separates, the simple test makes sense. You don't pollute the pool when you try different transactions or different products with different people.
If you focus on individuals (and many marketers do) then the rule is: treat different people differently.
On the other hand, many marketers deal with culture. You put something into the world and it won't work until it 'catches on'. The goal is to catch on with the herd. Catching on isn't a 1:1 private transaction. It's a group phenomenon, a place where you don't get a second chance to make a first impression. The simple test makes no sense here--it's either good enough to spread or it isn't. There aren't as many distinct threshholds, because the culture shifts or it doesn't.
When I ran Yoyodyne years ago, all of our email campaigns were aimed at the person. It was before significant online sharing, and we could measure one by one how people responded to our work.
At the same time, our backers and our clients were very much part of a tribe. We needed to change the way an entire industry thought, not merely make one sale at a time. It took me a while to realize that I had to market differently when I was trying to change the way the group thought—treating the tribe using individual-person thinking almost always backfires.
Or consider two non-profits. One wants to change only those it serves and those that fund it, one transaction at a time. Those are person effects. The other wants to change society, the culture, the way philanthropists think--those are tribal effects.
Many marketers, particularly bootstrappers and freelancers, rarely have the resources to invest in tribal effects, particularly among customers (as opposed to funders or employees). They don't have the resources or the leverage to make unmeasured investments that one day will pop into a change among the entire tribe.
The flip side, if you seek to change the culture (or a tiny tribal element of the culture), your timeframe and what you measure have to be focused on the conversation, not the individual.
If you're tracking landing pages and conversions and even market share, you're probably in the business of working at the person level. The more difficult, time-consuming, unmeasurable work involves creating ideas that spread among the tribe you target.
To change the culture, change the conversation.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| Debt Deflation in Spain: Record 4.7% Decline in Household Credit, Business Lending Down 10% Posted: 02 Dec 2013 08:01 PM PST Kiss any notion of a Spanish recovery goodbye. Via translation, El Pais reports Household credit suffers record fall in October despite the rescue. Credit in Spain continues to show signs of weakness, year and a half after the Troika bailout. Debt Deflation? Precisely! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Expect the "Practically Virtually Impossible" Posted: 02 Dec 2013 01:44 PM PST The collapse of Spanish housing left the banking system with as much as 51 billion euros of deferred tax assets(DTAs), mostly from 2011, that can be used against future profits for as long as 18 years. Because the DTAs depend on future and unknowable profits, the DTAs cannot be fully counted as core capital. To get around Basel capital rules, El Diario reports Spain Guarantees 30 Billion in DTAs. Multimillion dollar losses banks have generated billions in tax credits in just two years. The official estimate is that the sector hoards 51 billion in such tax advantages.The "Practically Virtually Impossible" The article contains an analysis of various banks including Bankia, CaixaCatalunya Bank, and Santander. The fine print is critical because some of the banks have no hope of using the DTAs. Rather, they will auction them off in a raffle. I suspect we will not have to wait until 2029 for the "practically virtually impossible" to happen. Will the eurozone even hold together that long? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| "Emerging Market Slowdown to Last for Years"; Comments from Saxo Bank Chief Economist Posted: 02 Dec 2013 11:00 AM PST Citing a need for structural reforms, Paul Polman, CEO of Unilever, the world's third largest Fast-Moving-ConsumerGoods (FMCG) company says the emerging market slowdown is here to stay. Before diving into the report on Unilever, let's take a look at the definition of FMCG corporations. Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) or Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) are products that are sold quickly and at relatively low cost. Examples include non-durable goods such as soft drinks, toiletries, and grocery items. Though the profit margin made on FMCG products is relatively small, more so for retailers than the producers/suppliers, they are generally sold in large quantities. FMCG is probably the most classic case of low margin/high volume business. Many of the players on the retailer side such as Walmart, Carrefour, Choithram, Tawseel, Sheel, Walgreens or Metro Group and supplier side are among the largest and most recognized global companies.Slowdown Here to Stay Bloomberg reports Emerging Market Slowdown to Last for Years Unilever (UNA) Chief Executive Officer Paul Polman said the economic slowdown in emerging markets is here to stay as many countries need to enact structural reforms to adjust to new conditions after the boom of recent years.More on FMCGs The World of CEOs cites Unilever as the third largest FMCG. Here is a list of Leading FMCG Corporations and the products they have. Comments From Saxo Bank Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank chief economist pinged me with these thoughts on emerging markets as well as countries in need of structural reform. Unilever is THE EMG company of the world. In the equity space, EMG earnings should come under some pressure and soon.A quick look at the CAC40 (the France stock market index), shows the CAC40 includes companies like L'Oréal (personal products), Groupe Danone (a food products corporation), LVMH (clothing and accessories), and Carrefour (food retailers and wholesalers). France is also a country with uncompetitive labor costs and a huge need for numerous structural reforms. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Battle for $15 minimum Wage; Should Companies Pay Workers More? Wal-Mart a Savior or a Pariah? Posted: 01 Dec 2013 11:55 PM PST On Friday, Salon reported Breaking: Massive Black Friday strike and arrests planned, as workers defy Wal-Mart. Defying the nation's top employer and a business model that defines the new U.S. economy, Wal-Mart employees and allies will try to oust shopping headlines with strike stories, and throw a retail giant off its heels on what should be its happiest day of the year. By day's end, organizers expect 1,500 total protests in cities ranging from Los Angeles, Calif., to Wasilla, Alaska, including arrests in nine cities: Seacaucus, New Jersey; Alexandria, Virginia; Dallas; Minneapolis; Chicago; Seattle; and Ontario, San Leandro, and Sacramento, California.On December 1, the New York Times reported Wage Strikes Planned at Fast-Food Outlets. Seeking to increase pressure on McDonald's, Wendy's and other fast-food restaurants, organizers of a movement demanding a $15-an-hour wage for fast-food workers say they will sponsor one-day strikes in 100 cities on Thursday and protest activities in 100 additional cities.Fight For 15 Inquiring minds are investigating the Fight for 15 website. Here is a snip. Stand with striking Chicago fast food and retail workers!Applicants a Mile Long Whenever Wal-Mart opens up a store it gets tens of thousands of applicants for a couple hundred openings. People want the jobs. Here's the deal. If you don't like the job, then don't take it. It really is as simple as that. Should Companies Pay Workers More? The economic illiterates think companies should be forced to pay $15 per hour. Is it even possible? Let's do the math. Wikipedia reports Wal-Mart is the largest retailer in the world as well as the biggest private employer in the world with over two million employees. In its last annual report, for the 12 months ending January 31, 2013, Wal-Mart had $16.999 billion in net income. That sounds like a lot of money, and it is, but not as much as you might think. I do not have a breakdown in headcounts, pay scales, or number of part-time employees, but let's assume that half of the 2 million workers make $8 an hour (75 cents above above minimum wage) and work 30 hours a week. $15 an hour would be an increase of $7 per hour. $7 multiplied by 30 hours per week, multiplied by 52 weeks a year, multiplied by 1 million workers is $10.92 billion, well over half Wal-Mart's profit. There would also be a large number of full-time employees making above $10 per hour but less than $15 per hour. Bump up those employees to $15 per hour and the company would not even be profitable at $15 per hour minimum. Moreover, sales would plunge at Wal-Mart, as would sales at McDonald's and Wendy's. The pressure to automate would be great, and marginal stores would surely close. Yet, prices across the board would soar, and so would yields on US Treasuries (and of course interest on the national debt would skyrocket). Then, how long would it take to discover that $15 was not a "living wage"? Less than a year? Wal-Mart a Savior or a Pariah? The idea that raising the minimum wage to $15 would fix anything is ridiculous. I am not totally unsympathetic to the plight of those struggling, but I am totally unsympathetic about minimum wages because the problem is the Fed, not minimum wage laws. Cheap money coupled with rising minimum wages encourages investment into automation as opposed to hiring of individuals. Cheap money also drives up costs of goods and services. And given that cheap money primarily benefits those with first access to it (the banks and the already wealthy), it is not surprising that people are struggling. Rather than protest Wal-Mart (a company that does the world a service by providing over 2 million direct jobs and millions more indirect ones), people ought to be protesting the Fed. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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Damn Cool Pics |
| Chinese Female Bodyguard Training Posted: 02 Dec 2013 10:45 AM PST Female bodyguard training course in China.            |
| 'Fast and Furious' actor Paul Walker dies in car crash Posted: 02 Dec 2013 10:20 AM PST On November 30, 2013, Paul Walker and his friend Roger Rodas left an event for Walker's charity Reach Out Worldwide. Shortly after leaving Roger Rodas lost control of his red 2005 Porsche Carrera GT and crashed into a light pole and tree in Valencia, Santa Clarita, Californa. The vehicle burst into flames. Both men died at the scene. R.I.P.         |
| How to Teach Your Cat to Poop in the Toilet Posted: 02 Dec 2013 09:27 AM PST He didn't know what to make of the lasagna tray of pine chips at first Via aperfectmentlegen.imgur.com We moved the litter box by it and added some of his "product" to the pan.   He figured it out.  We cut bigger and bigger holes in the center of the pan (the pine litter is flushable) over 2 weeks time til it was gone.  Now mommy and daddy don't buy litter and nobody can tell a cat lives here, we're odor free.  |
| 7 of the Planet’s Coolest Bike Safety Innovations Posted: 02 Dec 2013 08:46 AM PST Throughout the world, more and more people are taking to two wheels instead of four. Cycling improves fitness levels, saves money, reduces fuel emissions and is less hassle than public transport. What's not to love? Well, riding a bike can be a risky business, which is why clever people all over the planet are coming up with ways to make it safer. We've hunted down some of the most amazing inventions and initiatives that aim to make cycling safer. From invisible helmets to portable pole-dancers, these videos highlight the most exciting and interesting developments for cyclists right now. 1. The Cuddling Cops In Denmark, cycling is big news. Danish commuters ride their bikes whilst eating breakfast, smoking or precariously carrying cups of coffee. But bike helmets aren't popular in the Scandinavian nation, mainly because people fear they will mess up their hair. Vanity comes before safety, so capital city Copenhagen has come up with a novel way of spreading the safety message – along with a little love. If Copenhagen cops spot cyclists with bare heads, they pull them over, give them a cuddle, brief them on the benefits of protecting their heads, issue them with a brand new helmet – and send them on their way. See the warm arm of the law in this beautiful video. View Entire List >> |
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