miercuri, 4 decembrie 2013

Seth's Blog : Coming to Australia, Denver, Turkey and Oslo...

 

Coming to Australia, Denver, Turkey and Oslo...

I've promised so many people that I'd come to Australia one day that it gives me jet-lag-overcoming joy to let you know that I'll be there in early September 2014.

You can see the list of four public Australian Business Chicks seminars here.

Or, if you're up for it Down Under, consider joining me at an intimate full-day Q&A seminar, the only one I've scheduled anywhere so far next year. It won't overlap with the Business Chicks events, so maybe you could come to both...

Closer to home, I'll be in Denver with Brian at the Copyblogger event in May. And in Phoenix in April.

Also! I'm going to be speaking at the World Creativity Forum in Finland in late January, and at the Turkcell Academy in Istanbul the day before that.

Wrapping up the list, I'll be in Oslo in April at the Gulltaggen conference.

Hope to meet you in person after all these years of bouncing off satellites.

       

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These 1.46 Million Americans Are Getting Covered

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured

These 1.46 Million Americans Are Getting Covered

President Obama took a few minutes to speak on the importance of the Affordable Care Act yesterday. Thanks to the Affordable Care Act -- and decisions by Democratic and Republican elected officials in 26 states to expand their Medicaid programs -- 1.46 million hardworking Americans have applied for and been deemed eligible to enroll in quality, affordable health care. And with HealthCare.gov working for the vast majority of users, more Americans are signing up for care every day.

Click here to see more from yesterday's event.

1.46 Million Hardworking Americans Can Now Find Peace of Mind in Medicaid

 

 
 
  Top Stories

President Obama Meets with President Santos of Colombia

Yesterday, President Obama hosted President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia at the White House. Their visit underscored the growing partnership with Colombia, founded on our shared democratic values, deepening economic ties, and our long history of shared security goals

READ MORE

America’s Manufacturing Sector Continues to Show Momentum, With New Data Monday Showing Manufacturing Growing at Fastest Pace Since Early 2011:

Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council Gene Sperling discusses President Obama’s agenda to grow the middle class and making the U.S. a magnet for the location of high-quality jobs – especially those that support manufacturing and innovation.

READ MORE

Sharing Responsibility, Strengthening Results  

The theme of this year’s World AIDS Day was “Shared Responsibility: Strengthening Results for an AIDS-Free Generation.” Now more than ever, it is a fitting theme as the United States focuses, both on the domestic and global fronts, on building partnerships that strengthen our response to HIV and AIDS. 

READ MORE


 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

2:30 AM: The Vice President attends an official welcome ceremony in The Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China

2:45 AM: The Vice President meets with Vice President Li Yuanchao of the People's Republic of China

3:30 AM: The Vice President and President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China hold a restricted bilateral meeting

4:15 AM: The Vice President and President Xi hold an expanded bilateral meeting

10:00 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:20 AM: The President meets with Secretary of the Treasury Lew

11:15 AM: The President delivers remarks on the economy

2:05 PM: The President delivers remarks at the White House Youth Summit WATCH LIVE

 

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12:30 AM: The Vice President joins Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues Cathy Russell to visit an internet company
2:45 AM: The Vice President meets with Crown Prince Naruhito
3:30 AM: The Vice President meets with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
Prime Minister’s Residence
4:40 AM: Prime Minister Abe and the Vice President deliver statements to the press
10:00 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing
11:00 AM: The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia
12:05 PM: The President holds a working lunch with President Santos
1:00 PM: Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney
2:30 PM: The President delivers a statement on the Affordable Care Act
3:30 PM: The President participates in an Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony
4:15 PM: The President meets with Secretary of Defense Hagel
11:15 PM: The Vice President arrives in Beijing, China

11 Marketing Survival Lessons Learned from Accidentally Enraging an Island City-State

11 Marketing Survival Lessons Learned from Accidentally Enraging an Island City-State


11 Marketing Survival Lessons Learned from Accidentally Enraging an Island City-State

Posted: 03 Dec 2013 03:17 PM PST

Posted by DannyDover

My initial response to the massive traffic increase was not exactly professional.

"HOLY FREAKING CRAP BALLS!", I blurted out. I searched the room for a fellow nerd to share my e-thusiasm with, but only found a room full of strangers eating sandwiches.

Over the course of the next few days, the post received more than 600,000 unique visitors. If you segment the traffic to only include visits from Singapore, the number of unique visitors is equivalent to 10% of the entire population of the country (although admittedly this metric is a bit inflated due to people reading the post on multiple devices.)

Some context

I support myself financially as a storytelling consultant. On a day-to-day level this means I work on marketing strategy, creative writing, and web development. Admittedly it is a weird mix, but I enjoy the lifestyle.

I am currently living in Vietnam, but recently spent two months living in Singapore.

Like I do with all of my travels, I penned a blog post about my experience living in Singapore and hit publish. You can read the entire post here, but the quick summary is:

  • Singapore has accomplished a lot in a short amount of time.
  • I am deeply concerned that the societal and cultural costs of these accomplishments are harming the populace (I cited concerning data points related to stress).
  • I have limited time and resources, and will not be returning to Singapore.

My blog is fairly well read, so I was surprised that this post started out as one of my least-read posts. After a few days the post was, for most intents and purposes, just another link in the archive.

Last Wednesday, I grabbed my normal Vietnamese breakfast (a local sandwich called a Bánh mì and a coconut milk-based smoothie) and went into my co-working office to start on my to-do list for the day.

I have been trying to convert bad online habits into good ones, so when I found myself craving a peek at Facebook, I clicked on my Google Analytics shortcut instead. It opened up my real-time report, and I practically dropped my meal.

Marketing lessons learned

The next few days were the craziest marketing adventure that I have ever had. The following are the key lessons I learned from this experience:

1. Honesty is power

I think the key reason that this post resonated with people was that it was uncommonly honest. (This is a trait I picked up from Rand when I worked at Moz. It isn't a marketing trait, it is a life trait.) This post was published on my personal blog where I don't have any ads or up-sells. I write posts there solely because I enjoy writing. In this case, I thought I had some interesting insights about Singapore and wanted to share my honest thoughts. The power in this was that when people read it, they too wanted to share my thoughts (along with their own!) with their online friends.

2. Be conscious of the clickstream

In the post I cited some suicide statistics that were quite alarming. As the thousands of comments about the post came in (mostly via Facebook), I continually received the criticism that my data was incorrect. I triple-checked my sources (they checked out) and tried to reply to as many of the false claims of bad data as possible. It wasn't until two days later that I realized that people Googling the statistics were taken straight to a Wikipedia article that listed outdated data. After I updated the Wikipedia article to include the most recent data, the data criticism comments immediately stopped. I could have saved myself a giant headache if I had just viewed the situation from the readers' perspective and found the misinformation on Wikipedia earlier.

3. Be a first-responder

As the comments came in, I was alerted (rudely and repeatedly) that I had erroneously cited a date as 2011 rather than 2001. My first thought was just to subtly update the number but was worried this might start a backlash. For this reason, I called Jessica Dover. Jessica has worked on social media strategy for many of the world's most well known celebrities and has solved more social media problems than I have followers. (Disclaimer: She also happens to be my sister, but I honestly think that has hindered her more than helped her :-p. Her success is hard-earned and her own.) Without hesitation, she told me exactly what to do.

  1. Publicly thank the readers for all of their feedback.
  2. Acknowledge that you are listening to them.
  3. Acknowledge the error and then actually fix it.
This strategy worked wonders. I fixed my mistake and the amount of comments on the blog post quadrupled (after the audience was reassured that I was listening and responding). Huge win!

If you don't have your own social media mentor like Jessica, Moz's Q&A can be a great source of information.

4. Patch the holes in your net

At the onset, I was receiving a lot of traffic but none of it was converting (my conversion events were email captures and social follows). When I couldn't fix this myself, I called another member of my marketing SWAT team, Joe Chura. Joe runs an agency called Launch Digital Marketing. I think they are the most underrated team in the industry. In no time, they had a plan. Following their advice I installed two WordPress plugins:

  • MailChimp for WordPress Lite: There are lots of plugins that add MailChimp to a WordPress site but this is the only one that I know of that adds an opt-out check box below your comment reply box. If your readers are already entering their e-mail address in order to leave a comment, they might as well be asked if they want to sign up for your newsletter. For the text box, I used the text "I want to be kept up-to-date on Life Listed and receive free resources!"
  • Flare: This is my favorite social media sharing plugin (there are countless other options). This version is technically no longer under active development (they are building a new version to replace it), so I had disabled it on my site. Launch convinced me to re-add it.

After I added these plugins, it doubled the size of my mailing list and started what eventually became a viral spread of the blog post on Twitter. These were huge wins. (Hat tip to Dan Andrews for being at the forefront of that Twitter storm.)

Again, if you don't have your own marketing SWAT team, Moz's Q&A can be a great resource.

5. If you have to think about server optimization, it is too late

Throughout the entire process my server never went down. I credit this to two things:

First, props to WPengine (my host) for being seamless. They handled the spike without any hiccups or annoying interruptions. I will likely have to pay an overage fee but that is a MUCH better option than having a site outage.

Second, I credit preparation. I have long been using a tool called http://gtmetrix.com/ to diagnose speed problems on my site. (Hat tip to Jon over at Raven for introducing this tool to me). I love this tool because it combines the Google Page Speed tool and Yahoo's YSlow into one convenient and easy to understand interface. Luckily, I had implemented all of the recommended fixes well before this traffic spike. I am kind of a speed optimization nerd. :-p

6. Take comfort in the negativity slope

When I first posted the blog post, no one cared. When it started to gain some traction, I was immediately told how stupid it and I were. As it gained momentum the amount of naysayers increased. It wasn't until the post reached full velocity that the supporters started to outnumber the naysayers. This has been a trend that I have observed with all of my successful content. I now take comfort in knowing that it is going to get worse until it suddenly gets better. Negativity online is a slope, and luckily it does have a peak.

7. Facebook's walled garden is much worse than it was before

Facebook once offered a tool called Facebook Insights for Domains. This tool allowed you to get valuable information on any traffic that was referred to your verified domain from Facebook. Unfortunately, Facebook has killed it off. When my post went viral on Facebook, I had no visibility other than that the traffic was coming from Facebook and Facebook mobile. I had no idea what pages or groups the applicable conversations were happening on, and thus had no way to respond to conversations happening behind the wall. This was a huge frustration throughout the whole process.

8. A rising tide…

When people came to my website to read the Singapore post, many of them checked out my other posts as well (this is to be expected). In response to this, I published a post that I thought would also be applicable to the new readers. Due to the increased visibility, this post (on useful money philosophies) subsequently went mildly viral. This in turn drove even more conversions.

9. Be aware of parallel universes

Stories exist in parallel universes:

  • What the storyteller experiences
  • The story the storyteller shares
  • The story as the audience members understand it

These are all very different stories!

Many of the comments, compliments and criticism that I received about the Singapore post had absolutely nothing to do with the words written in my article. For many, it was their personal experiences, not my blog post, that drove their responses. At first, this was a major frustration point for me. It wasn't until I mapped out the perspectives in the above list that I calmed down and started to appreciate the storytelling experience.

10. Listen first, then wait, then react

When the responses came in, I was vastly outnumbered (it was literally 500,000 to 1)! The only way I was able to deal with that amount of volume was to listen, learn from an expert (see lesson 3), collect data, process that data, and then react. I let the first several dozen comments come in before I started to respond. I think this was critical in me being able to follow and supplement the large-scale discussion.

11. Titles are 60% of the battle

The click-worthiness of the blog post title was a major contributing factor to its success. (Second only to its honesty). Admittedly it was an attention-grabbing title but at the same time it was true. I actually will never be returning to Singapore. I didn't perform any keyword research or A/B tests when picking the blog post title. Instead, I just picked something that I figured I would want to click. The best titles are always that simple.

When I look back on this marketing adventure, I feel thankful. The world, not just Singapore, is in an amazing state of change right now. I am glad that my little voice was able to contribute a little bit to the global discussion.

If you would like to hear about other marketing adventures, feel free to connect with me on Google+.


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Seth's Blog : Trash talking important work

 

Trash talking important work

The self-induced anxiety formula often goes like this: What I'm about to do is important. I've never done it quite like this. It's incredibly crucial, a turning point, a high risk venture, a moment in time I won't have again. Therefore, I am nervous. And I need to get more nervous, because the importance of the moment warrants it. This is going to fail. I can vividly picture all the ways it won't work...

On and on.

A common approach to decreasing the unhappy cycle is self talk to minimize how important the upcoming event is. The mantra is: No one will be watching, I'm exaggerating this moment, it's no big deal, it's not as important as you think, it doesn't really matter...

The problem with that approach is that you spend your day trash talking your leverage and impact. By actively diminishing what you've accomplished, you make it less likely you'll see yourself as worthy of even bigger achievements tomorrow.

In fact, it does matter. In fact, this is an important thing you're about to do, and denigrating it undermines the very reason you're doing this work in the first place.

Here's an alternative: It's okay to be nervous. Instead of fighting that anxiety, dance with it. Welcome it. Relish it. It's a sign you're on to something. "Oh good, here comes that itch!" This is important after all.

When we welcome a feeling like this, when we embrace it and actually look forward to it, the feeling doesn't get louder and more debilitating. It softens, softens to the point where we can work with it.

Use your fear like fuel.

       

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marți, 3 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Bottom in for Detroit?

Posted: 03 Dec 2013 08:02 PM PST

I mentioned to my wife Liz tonight, that I thought "the bottom was in for Detroit". She asked "why?"

Here's my lengthy answer.

Unlike Vallejo, California, it is highly likely Detroit will actually shed pension obligations in the first go-around.

A mere 25% of students graduate from high school. Can Detroit schools get any worse?

In 2010 I wrote about Mayor Bing's plan to Cede 20% of the City to gangs
Detroit has been bankrupt for years. It simply refuses to admit it. Detroit's schools are bankrupt as well. A mere 25% of students graduate from high school.

Yet, in spite of hints and threats from mayors and budget commissions, and in spite of common sense talk of bankruptcy, Detroit has not pulled the bankruptcy trigger.

In a futile attempt to stave off the inevitable one last time, Mayor Bing's latest plan is to cutoff city services including road repairs, police patrols, street lights, and garbage collection in 20% of Detroit.

Would you want to live in one of the gang war-zones that his plan would create? Would you want to live in a bordering neighborhood or in a bordering city?

Regardless of your answer, Bing's plan cannot and will not work and I believe Detroit will, sometime in 2011, file for bankruptcy.
Here we are today. The city finally pulled the bankruptcy trigger, but it took two more wasted years.

Here's a picture of Detroit's Michigan Central Train Depot.



Image courtesy of the Journal and the AP.

Also in 2010, Business Insider posted a fantastic set of images of the beautiful 3.5 million square foot Packard property worth $13 million (but no taxes collected for years). Here are a couple of those images.





Bottom Catalyst

Still, things do not bottom until there is a catalyst.

Today we had that catalyst. It came in the form of a Lesson for Union Dinosaurs: Detroit Bankruptcy Judge Rules Public Pensions Haircuts OK.

After discussing the above, I happened to read some comments from the New York Times article Detroit Ruling on Bankruptcy Lifts Pension Protections.

The article itself did not say much more than I said on my blog earlier. But check out this comment by Kathleen Kelly ...
I was born in and grew up in Detroit. My parents moved to Detroit from another country with their three other children, prior to my birth. The city was, at that time, a gleaming jewel, and a global center of manufacturing.

Yes, the city has taken a turn downward for the past several decades. It's been sad, painful, and sobering to watch. The key question is "what now?".

A lot of turnover has occurred on City Council in the past year. The city also has a new mayor and a new police chief. Young artisans, craftsmen and business people are moving into the city, specifically into downtown and midtown, to take full advantage of affordable rents. Business owners like Dan Gilbert are funding revitalization efforts in terms of rehabbing or demolishing empty buildings.

Areas of NYC have been renowned, over my lifetime, for re-gentrification. Detroit may learn something from that. Yes, the tune was called & played, and now the piper must be paid. But for those of us who've stayed close and who love the city, we see a blank slate now, replete with new possibilities. And yes, it won't be like "it was" with auto plants dotting the city landscape. But that doesn't mean it still can't or won't be great in its own way.

Finger-pointing won't help, and I'd have thought we'd moved beyond that. Safe, affordable housing, stable infrastructure, education and jobs. That's where our focus needs to be, and that's what will make Detroit great again.
I was in Ann Arbor, Michigan over Thanksgiving with Liz's family. Jan, a niece of Liz who runs a property management company in Detroit made similar comments about revitalization of Detroit by young artists.

Fresh-Start Proposal

Let's hope Detroit makes the most of this bankruptcy opportunity. But it can only do so if it sheds a huge chunk of pension and bond obligations.

Here is my six point fresh-start proposal.

  1. An agreement to end collective bargaining for all city workers
  2. An end to defined benefit pension plans for new workers and also for workers with less than 10 years of service
  3. A sustainable benefit model for existing workers with over 10 years of service, with pension plan assumptions equal to the long-term treasury rate
  4. Automatic provisions for further pension cuts if plan assumptions were not met
  5. An end to the right to strike for public safety workers
  6. An end to all prevailing wage laws


It may take years, if ever, for Detroit to be "great" again. But for the first time in decades, Detroit actually has a chance.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Pension Battle Shifts to San Jose, San Bernardino, Stockton; Rights of Dinosaurs vs. "Right Thing"

Posted: 03 Dec 2013 01:28 PM PST

Now that a federal judge properly ruled pension obligations are not sacrosanct (see Lesson for Union Dinosaurs) the spotlight is once again on union dinosaurs in California.

Bankrupt San Bernardino foolishly did not attempt to shed pension obligations in bankruptcy, but perhaps it can now reconsider.

What about Stockton and Vallejo?

On April 1, 2013 Judge Rules Stockton CA Bankruptcy is Valid, City Acted in Good Faith. Hopefully Stockton will follow inevitable pension cuts in Detroit.

Second Chance for Vallejo

Vallejo had a golden opportunity to shed pension obligations in its first bankruptcy. When the city failed to do so, I made an easy prediction: Within years, Vallejo would be back in bankruptcy court.

That prediction appears well-founded. On October 20, 2013 I penned Vallejo, Mired in Pension Debt Again; Lesson for Stockton and Detroit - Shed Those Pension Obligations Now!

My comment from above: "Stockton and Detroit have a choice. They can cut pensions now, or cut them later in a second bankruptcy, just like Vallejo will."

Will Stockton get it right? Hopefully, but some things will depend on Detroit. We have not yet seen the final ruling, but steep haircuts on pension promises and unsecured general bonds should be forthcoming.

Battle in San Jose

The battle in San Jose, population 983,000 and California's third-largest city, is of a similar nature.

San Jose spends 33% of its general fund revenue on pensions, the highest among the 25 most populous U.S. cities.

Mayor Chuck Reed wants to make changes to the pension plan. Specifically, Reed, a 65-year-old Democrat, is leading a statewide voter initiative to allow changes in future benefits for existing employees.

Union Dinosaurs Part II

Of course union dinosaurs are fighting the initiative, which means unions would rather see San Jose go bankrupt than negotiate.

Bloomberg reports San Jose Pension Crush Spurs Bid to Ease California Pacts.
San Jose, a city of 983,000 that is California's third-largest, has been forced to make deep cuts in basic services as its retirement costs soared to $245 million in 2012 from $73 million in 2002. The city's pension and retiree health-care liability is almost $3 billion, according to Reed, who was first elected in 2006.

San Jose voters last year approved retirement changes requiring new employees to pay 50 percent of the plan's total cost, or about twice as much as current employees. Workers already on the city's payroll could keep their existing plans by increasing their contributions or keep their costs steady by choosing a plan with more modest benefits.

Unions including the San Jose Police Officers' Association and the San Jose Retired Employees Association sued to block the change. The case is pending.

Reed's ballot initiative would amend the California constitution to give local governments the power to negotiate changes to existing employees' future pension or retiree health care, while protecting benefits they've already earned.

"What they're trying to do is overturn decades of case law, Supreme Court decisions and change the California constitution to allow public employers to either change, cut or eliminate public employees' pensions in the middle of their career," said Dave Low, executive director of the California School Employees Association and chairman of Californians for Retirement Security, a coalition of public employees and retirees.

"It's a vested right," Low said.

"In talking with other mayors around the state, everybody would benefit from having clear authority to be able to negotiate changes for future benefits for work yet to be performed for current employees," Reed said of his ballot measure.

Mayors Pat Morris of bankrupt San Bernardino, Tom Tait of Anaheim and Bill Kampe of Pacific Grove are backing the plan. Santa Ana Mayor Miguel Pulido dropped out as a formal supporter and was replaced by Vallejo Vice Mayor Stephanie Gomes. Opponents include Oakland Mayor Jean Quan and San Francisco Board of Supervisors President David Chiu.

Also assailing the plan are the California Public Employees' Retirement System, the largest U.S. public pension, and the California State Teachers' Retirement System, the second-biggest U.S. public pension contending with a $70 billion unfunded liability.

The proposal "threatens the retirement security of existing and future educators, who have provided many years of service to California's students," Jack Ehnes, the teacher pension's chief executive officer, said in a statement.

Reed said cities can continue to cut services and raise taxes, make employees pay more, cut benefit payments to retirees or cut benefits for current employees.

"None of those is fair, so it is better to talk about changing expectations of future accruals for future work," Reed said.
CalPERS, Oakland Mayor Against Reed's Plan

It's not yet official, but Oakland is as bankrupt as bankrupt can be. Why its mayor would not want to back Reed's initiative has three possibilities: reelection motives, sheer stupidity, or to preserve her own ill-gotten pension.

Rights of Dinosaurs vs. "Right Thing"

Dave Low, executive director of the California School Employees Association and chairman of Californians for Retirement Security, a coalition of public employees and retirees, whines "It's a vested right".

Low can whine all he wants, but bankruptcy is a "right" as well. And rights in bankruptcy overrule alleged rights of unions.

Speaking of which, those alleged rights were primarily obtained via a process of coercion, threats, bribery, and back-room deals with crooked politicians willing to give unions what unions want so the politicians can get elected.

What's "right" about that?

From a taxpayer perspective, the "right thing" to do is end collective bargaining of all public unions, after-which public unions, like dinosaurs, will become rightfully extinct.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Lesson for Union Dinosaurs: Detroit Bankruptcy Judge Rules Public Pensions Haircuts OK; Unions Whine City Got "Absolutely Everything"

Posted: 03 Dec 2013 10:21 AM PST

At long last, beleaguered taxpayers will not have to put up with nonsense from public unions about the sanctity of pensions.

In spite of Michigan constitutional provisions, the federal judge presiding over the Detroit bankruptcy filing ruled the city filed in good faith. More importantly, the judge ruled the provision in the Michigan Constitution protecting public pensions isn't a bulletproof shield in a bankruptcy.

Yahoo!Finance reports Judge says Detroit Eligible for Bankruptcy
Detroit is eligible to shed billions in debt in the largest public bankruptcy in U.S. history, a judge said Tuesday in a long-awaited decision that now shifts the case toward how the city will accomplish that task.

Judge Steven Rhodes turned down objections from unions, pension funds and retirees, which, like other creditors, could lose under any plan to solve $18 billion in long-term liabilities.

"This once proud and prosperous city can't pay its debts. It's insolvent. It's eligible for bankruptcy," Rhodes said in announcing his decision. "At the same time, it also has an opportunity for a fresh start."

Rhodes' decision is a critical milestone. He said pensions, like any contract, can be cut, adding that a provision in the Michigan Constitution protecting public pensions isn't a bulletproof shield in a bankruptcy.

The city says pension funds are short by $3.5 billion. Anxious retirees drawing less than $20,000 a year have appeared in court and put an anguished face on the case. Despite his finding, Rhodes cautioned everyone that he won't automatically approve pension cuts that could be part of Detroit's eventual plan to get out of bankruptcy.

Emergency manager Kevyn Orr, who had testified the city's current conditions are "unacceptable," release a statement praising the judge's ruling and pledging to "press ahead with the ongoing revitalization of Detroit."

Behind closed doors, mediators, led by another judge, have been meeting with Orr's team and creditors for weeks to explore possible settlements.
Huge "Fresh Start" Win for Detroit

This was a huge, fresh-start win for the city of Detroit and its residents. The unions disagree.
Minutes after the ruling, a lawyer for the city's largest union, said she would pursue an appeal at the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati. City officials got "absolutely everything" in Rhodes' decision, she told reporters.

"It's a huge loss for the city of Detroit," said Sharon Levine, an attorney for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which represents half the city's workers.

Opponents want to go directly to a federal appeals court in Cincinnati, bypassing the usual procedure of having a U.S. District Court judge hear the case.
Definition of "Absolutely Everything"

Levine whines, city officials got "absolutely everything". No, not yet, but taxpayers can hope.

I propose the final settlement should include ...

  1. An agreement to end collective bargaining for all city workers
  2. An end to defined benefit pension plans for new workers and also for workers with less than 10 years of service
  3. A sustainable benefit model for existing workers with over 10 years of service, with pension plan assumptions equal to the long-term treasury rate
  4. Automatic provisions for  further pension cuts if plan assumptions were not met
  5. An end to the right to strike for public safety workers
  6. An end to all prevailing wage laws


That would be "nearly everything", and it would provide the fresh start that Detroit desperately needs.

Lesson for Union Dinosaurs

Something along those lines would also send a signal to unions everywhere that they can and should expect the same treatment in bankruptcy court.

Hopefully this would get unions to the bargaining table before bankruptcy, but don't count on dinosaurs to learn much from history.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

What Will Your Bank Look Like 5 Years From Now? How Will Pizzas Be Delivered? Do You Tip a Drone?

Posted: 03 Dec 2013 12:58 AM PST

Every time I walk into my bank, I typically notice several offices in plain view of customers, each with a manager or loan office sitting doing nothing.

On other occasions, there may be a wait to see an officer, perhaps even a long wait.

What if there were queues of bankers at all times, and a no-wait policy? What might that cost?

Actually, it would be far cheaper.

Express Banking

The Telegraph reports computers lined up to replace humans in bank branches.
Several major banks are understood to be in talks to introduce "express" branches, which would be similar to self-service checkouts in supermarkets. These smaller outlets would be almost completely devoid of human interaction.

If trials are successful, the new format is likely to be adopted across Britain, sources said, with larger branches slimmed down and staff numbers reduced in branches.

Martin Shires of banking technology firm NCR said: "As early as next year, you could see one of the major high street banks buying a convenience store location and fitting it out with ATMs that mean you can do 95pc of your transactions through self-service. Within five years this will be a common sight."

The new branches would be smaller and fitted with screens and telephones so that customers could call a specialist department for assistance. This might include a video link similar to the Skype internet telephone service.

Ed Salvesen, a researcher at Brewin Dolphin, the investment manager, said while it is likely that some staff will retained in branches, in-person banking could become a rarity. "Face-to-face communication is slowly being faded out," he said. 

Mr Shires said the technology would allow banks to open for longer, as machine-led branches would be significantly cheaper to run. He said a pilot scheme of express branches in the US had reduced operating costs by up to 50pc, with some staff redeployed from branches to video call centres.
Drone for Deliveries

Amazon made a big splash last week with news of using drones for deliveries.
Amazon, the world's largest online retailer, is testing unmanned drones to deliver goods to customers, Chief Executive Jeff Bezos says. The drones, called Octocopters, could deliver packages weighing up to 2.3kg to customers within 30 minutes of them placing the order, he said.

However, he added that it could take up to five years for the service to start. The US Federal Aviation Administration is yet to approve the use of unmanned drones for civilian purposes. "I know this looks like science fiction, but it's not," Mr Bezos told CBS television's 60 Minutes programme.
Amazon Prime Air

On it's website, Amazon is excited about Prime Air.
The goal of this new delivery system is to get packages into customers' hands in 30 minutes or less using unmanned aerial vehicles.

Putting Prime Air into commercial use will take some number of years as we advance the technology and wait for the necessary FAA rules and regulations.
Amazon Test Flight



Do You Tip a Drone?

Dominos does not deliver to my area. Nor Does Pizza hut. Yet, I am less distance away from their stores than many places they will deliver to. I am just in a different town. A drone with a GPS would have no problems whatsoever delivering to my address.

And it would be cheaper and faster, for me, as well as the pizza place to not have to bother with human carriers or tips.

Like Amazon, Domino's Tests Delivery of Pizza by Remote-Controlled Drone.
The company's DomiCopter—a joint effort by U.K. drone specialist AeroSight, Big Communications and creative agency T + Biscuits—is an eco-friendly machine capable of carrying pizzas in heatwave bags for impressive distances without refueling. Sadly, it's also a threat to the labor force of guys who get stoned in their cars and forget where you live.
Jamba Juice Vending Machines

Bloomberg reports As Smoothie Store Sales Slow, Jamba Juice Turns to Machines
McDonald's (MCD) is in the smoothie market, and others like Dairy Queen and Panera (PNRA) spent the summer promoting their rival drinks.

But the smoothie chain is hoping to see improvement from something it calls "JambaGo," a self-serve machine that can be installed in cafeterias, schools, and convenience stores. Jamba Juice makes money by selling the prepackaged, pre-blended smoothie ingredients to JambaGo vendors, like a soda maker selling syrup to the owner of a soda fountain. The advantages: Jamba doesn't need to build a store and the labor costs are much lower compared with hiring staff to concoct made-to-order drinks.
About that $15 an Hour Minimum Wage

I received hundreds of emails and comments to my post Battle for $15 minimum Wage; Should Companies Pay Workers More? Wal-Mart a Savior or a Pariah?

But as I reflect on what is on the horizon at Amazon, at Dominos, at banks, and with Jamba Juice Vending machines, it seems the $7.25 an hour minimum wage is far too high already.

Regardless, every increase in minimum wage will further encourage businesses to seek alternatives to human employment.

Obamacare does the same thing.

More Questions to Consider

  • Does Jamba Juice even need stores?
  • Why can't McDonald's drive-up windows have a central dispatch (in India)?
  • What about touch screen fast-food service robots? Might they not even take on a human form?


I can certainly envision McDonald's paying $15 an hour, but with 75% fewer human employees. The same applies to every fast-food company in the world.

You can force fast food and other places to pay a higher minimum wage, but you cannot force them to hire someone.

And the higher the minimum wage, and the higher the costs of Obamacare, the greater incentive to seek alternatives.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Christmas Spending – An Infographic Insight

Posted: 03 Dec 2013 12:55 PM PST


Christmas Spending Infographic – An infographic by the team at Amara


Zombie Survival Сontest in Spain

Posted: 03 Dec 2013 11:37 AM PST

Zombies walk the streets during Zombie Survival contest on December 1, 2013 in Alameda de la Sagra, near Toledo, Spain.

















North Korean Officials Get Photoshop Totally Wrong

Posted: 03 Dec 2013 11:21 AM PST

A photo from the Nov. 18 issue of North Korea's labor magazine forgot to give these soldiers shadows. It wasn't the first time Photoshop failed the officials of Pyongyang.



GHOST THIGHS.



Kim Jong-un visits a children's hospital construction site and abides by different light sources.



The terrain changes in two photos taken at the same day, in the same location.



A 2008 photo of Kim Jong-il with the troops.



Clone-stamped sheep from a 2010 article on flourishing North Korean farms.



Either they're very meticulous with stacking bread ziggurats or they're not covering their Photoshop tracks.



Clone-stamped crowds frolicking in the ocean.



Tallest dude on Earth (though our readers point out this could be a legit photo of Ri Myung Hun, a 7'8" basketball player).



In 1995, official press releases memorialized Kim Il-sung's death with this doctored photo of father and son standing on a mountaintop.



Via 163 News

Fun Facts About Man’s Best Friend [Infographic]

Posted: 03 Dec 2013 10:08 AM PST

Are you crazy for canines? Can't get enough cuddles from your pooch? Is "Must Love Dogs" your go-to DVD rentals on Saturday night? You're not alone if you're more than mildly-gaga for your pup. In fact, it appears America is land of the free, home of the brave…and apparent lover of man's best friend!

Click on Image to Enlarge.



Via puppywire