Central Perk

vineri, 13 decembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Stockton Doomed to Another Bankruptcy; Getting Out of bankruptcy the Worst Possible Way
"Dirty Jobs" Mike Rowe on the High Cost of College; Get Ready to Get Dirty; What's Wrong With the College Model?
Italy's "Pitchfork Protests" Spread to Rome; Interior Minister Warns of "Drift Into Rebellion"
Does the US Have Enough Military Bases?

Stockton Doomed to Another Bankruptcy; Getting Out of bankruptcy the Worst Possible Way

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 07:21 PM PST

Heading into bankruptcy Stockton, California had about $147 million in unfunded pension obligations and about $250 million in debt from various bond issues.

The city could have and should have shed some of those pension obligations and made changes in various pension agreements, but it didn't.

It did shed bond debt for one cent on the dollar, subject to lawsuits.

Stockton Doomed to Another "Stigma of Bankruptcy"

The New York Times reports Stockton Return to Solvency, With Pension Problem Unsolved

Battered by a collapse in real estate prices, a spike in pension and retiree health care costs, and unmanageable debt, this struggling city in the Central Valley has labored for months to find a way out of Chapter 9. Now having renegotiated its debt with most creditors, cobbled together layoffs and service cuts and raised the sales tax to 9 percent from 8.25 percent, Stockton is nearly ready to leave court protection.

But what Stockton, along with pretty much every other city in California that has gone into bankruptcy in recent years, has not done is address the skyrocketing public pensions that are at the heart of many of these cases.

"No city wants to take on the state pension system by itself," said Stockton's new mayor, Anthony Silva, referring to the California Public Employees' Retirement System, or Calpers. "Every city thinks some other city will take care of it."

"They wanted to get out of bankruptcy in the worst possible way, and that's just what they did," said Dean Andal of the San Joaquin County Taxpayers Association, which fought the sales-tax increase. "If they go ahead and hire those new police officers, the city will be back in insolvency in four years."

City officials insist their plan will work. "We got the tax, and thank God it passed," Councilman Holman said. "I have confidence that the numbers line up."

Nor does the Detroit ruling this week make Stockton want to revisit pension reductions. Connie Cochran, a city spokeswoman, said that city workers had already seen their pay and retiree health benefits cut. In addition, she said, Calpers told the city that its only option was to pay a $970 million termination fee to leave the system, and Stockton could not afford it.

Mayor Silva said the city's plan would help it out of bankruptcy sometime late next spring, if all goes well, after the judge hearing the case has time to rule on its fairness and viability and negotiations can be completed with one final bondholding creditor.

"We will lose the stigma of bankruptcy, and it will buy us time," he said.

Getting Out of bankruptcy the Worst Possible Way

I am hoping the judge tells Stockton its plan is not viable (for the simple reason it isn't viable).

Raising taxes is not the way you deal with preposterous pension obligations.

When CalPERS told the city "the only option was to pay a $970 million termination fee to leave the system" the city could have and should have spit in their face (not literally of course).

The polite way of doing that would have been a balanced blend of pension haircuts and bond haircuts.

Instead, by putting 100% of the burden on bondholders, the city virtually ensured inability to issue further bonds at a reasonable interest rate. Moreover, the city punished taxpayers, and did nothing to fix untenable pension obligations.

Stockton is doomed unless the bankruptcy judge handing the case sends Stockton back to the drawing board.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Dirty Jobs" Mike Rowe on the High Cost of College; Get Ready to Get Dirty; What's Wrong With the College Model?

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 12:39 PM PST

Mike Rowe, host of the Discovery Channel series Dirty Jobs chimes in on the US education system in an interview with Nick Gillespie on Reason.Com.

click on above link if video does not play

Rowe: If we are lending money that ostensibly we don't have to kids who have no hope of making it back in order to train them for jobs that clearly don't exist, I might suggest that we've gone around the bend a little bit.

Gillespie: We are doing everything we can to push every kid to go to a four-year college. What's wrong with that?
Rowe: It's not working. You have a trillion dollars in debt on the student loan side. You have a skills gap, something [interrupted by Gillespie]

Gillespie: What do you mean a skills gap?
Rowe: Right now you have about 3 million jobs in transportation, commerce, trades, that can't be filled.

Gillespie: Anything from carpentry to electricians, plumbers,
Rowe: [interjects] Heating, electric, truck drivers, welders is a big one, jobs that typically parents don't sit down and say to their kids - look if all goes well, this is what you are going to do.

Rowe's advice is summed up in the following clip I took from the video.

Get Ready to Get Dirty

The video is a lengthy 41 minutes but Reason.com provides this synopsis so you can skip to topics that interest you.

His bad experience with a high school guidance counselor (3:20)
Why he provides scholarships based on work ethic (6:57)
The problem with taxpayer-supported college loans (8:40)
Why America demonizes dirty jobs (11:32)
The happiest day of his life (13:14)
Why following your passion is terrible advice (17:05)
Why it's so hard to hire good people (21:04)
The hidden cost of regulatory compliance (23:16)
The problem with Obama's promise to create shovel ready jobs (33:05)
Efficiency versus effectiveness (34:17)
Life after Dirty Jobs (38:24)

Work Smart, Not Hard

The 3:20 mark discusses this higher education ad campaign thrust upon Rowe by Mr. Dunbar, high school guidance counselor

Picking up at the 7:50 mark ...

Gillespie: When did the idea disappear that you should learn a skill that is actually useful or in need?
Rowe: That's a good question for a real social anthropologist. My own opinion is there is a kind of inertia that most parents would agree that it exists. And it's a desire see something better for your kids than you had. The question of course is "what is better?" Is it better, right now today, to have $140,000 in debt but a degree from Georgetown, or is it better to be that kid I described in Butler.

It's an excellent interview, please listen to at least a portion of it.

My Take

At the right price, college may be a good choice, but it's not always a good choice.
Government interference in education has so increased the cost of education, and so many kids are pushed into totally useless degrees, that college is an increasingly poor choice until costs come down.
Points one and two especially hold true for those in programs that qualify a person to do nothing but work as a retail clerk upon graduation.
To help bring down education costs, we need more alternative courses, more two-year trade courses, more online courses, reduced administration costs, and termination of defined benefit pension plans for teachers. Simply put, we need more competition and reduced costs at every point in the system.
The student loan program is an abysmal failure and should be abolished.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Italy's "Pitchfork Protests" Spread to Rome; Interior Minister Warns of "Drift Into Rebellion"

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 10:11 AM PST

Over the past four days "pitchfork protests" have spread to numerous cities, disrupting road and rail travel in protest of the state of the economy.

The pitchfork movement started with a loose group of Sicilian farmers concerned about rising taxes and cuts to agricultural state funds, then evolved into a nationwide umbrella grouping of truckers, small businessman, the unemployed, low-paid workers, rightwing extremists and ultras football supporters according to IBTimes.

Map of Major Protests

Map courtesy of Stratfor.

Pitchfork Protests Spread to Rome

Reuters reports Italy's 'pitchfork protests,' in fourth day, spread to Rome.

Italy's "pitchfork" protests spread to Rome on Thursday when hundreds of students clashed with police and threw firecrackers outside a university where government ministers were attending a conference.

Truckers, small businessmen, the unemployed, students and low-paid workers have staged four days of rallies in cities from Turin in the north to Sicily in the south in the name of the "pitchfork" movement, originally a loosely organized group of farmers from Sicily.
"There are millions of us and we are growing by the hour. This government has to go," said Danilo Calvani, a farmer who has emerged as one of the leader of the protests.

Interior Minister Angelino Alfano told parliament the unrest could "lead to a spiral of rebellion against national and European institutions."

The protests are fuelled by falling incomes, unemployment above 12 percent and at a record 41 percent among people below 25, and graft and scandals among politicians widely seen as serving their own rather than the country's interests.

The protesters' precise aims remain vague beyond demanding the government be replaced and parliament dissolved. Targets range from tax collection agency Equitalia and high fuel prices to privileged elites and the euro.

Mario Borghezio, an outspoken Northern League member of the European Parliament, on Thursday used the protests to attack the euro and European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi.

"The wind of revolt that is blowing in Italy today is the direct result of the euro and the wrong choices made by the EU and the ECB," he said during the ECB chief's testimony to the European Parliament.

'Pitchfork' Protests Rattle Italian Government

The BBC reports 'Pitchfork' Protests Rattle Italian Government

First it was the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, led by charismatic comedian Beppe Grillo, that shook up Italy's political landscape.

Now a new populist movement headed by disgruntled farmers and lorry drivers has taken its anti-austerity message to Italy's streets and squares.

The past week has seen four days of rallies and protest actions across the country by the Forconi, or "Pitchforks". The name derives from the movement's roots among struggling farmers in Sicily, who in 2011 and 2012 staged strikes and roadblocks to demand more help from the government.

The loose-knit grouping has expanded nationwide and has drawn in a variety of groups who have suffered badly as Italy's economic crisis has dragged on. The protesters include road hauliers, small businessmen, low-paid workers, the unemployed and students.

Some of the protesters complain of excessive state regulation and are unhappy about austerity-driven tax hikes. Others have denounced capitalism and the euro.

All seem to be united in their contempt for Italy's politicians, who are accused of failing to address the country's grave economic problems.

'Drift into rebellion'

The Italian government on Thursday expressed its concern and Interior Minister Angelino Alfano warned of the danger of a "drift into rebellion" by the movement. He spoke of the protests drawing in elements bent on violence.

Beppe Grillo Urges Police to Join Movement

Reuters reports Italy's Grillo urges police to join "pitchfork" protests

The head of Italy's anti-establishment 5-Star Movement Beppe Grillo urged police on Tuesday to join protesters as a wave of "pitchfork" protests gave vent to bitter frustration after years of austerity and recession.

Grillo, whose movement has no direct connection with the protests, welcomed reports that several police officers took off their riot helmets and expressed sympathy with demonstrators on Monday.

"Italians are on your side. Join them. At the next demonstrations, tell your guys to take off their helmets and fraternize with the citizens," he wrote on his popular blog. "It will be an extreme, peaceful and revolutionary signal and Italy will change," he wrote.

Though there are no direct ties to Grillo's movement, both tap into the growing anger in many parts of Italy after the worst recession in postwar history.

Letta has warned repeatedly that opposition to the government and the EU is growing strongly, fuelled by sacrifices needed to keep public finances in order and which could result in a massive anti-EU vote in next year's European parliamentary elections.

Eventually, Will Come a Time When ....

I repeat once again my 2011 message Eventually, Will Come a Time When ....

Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.

Greece, Finland, Germany, Belgium, and even France are possibilities. All it will take, is for one charismatic person, timing social mood correctly, to say precisely one right thing at exactly the right time. It will happen.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Does the US Have Enough Military Bases?

Posted: 12 Dec 2013 11:32 PM PST

Inquiring minds might be interested in the analysis of artist Josh Begley who catalogs every U.S. military base in the world. Here is a representation.

Gizmodo comments on the Chilling Geometry of Every US Military Base Seen From Space.

The United States military is everywhere. It's so big that it's hard to quantify just how massive it is—any number used to describe it is so large that it defies the understanding of an ordinary human brain.

A self-described "data artist," Begley has started an ongoing effort to collect satellite imagery from every U.S. military installation in the world. The initial map, parked at Empire.is, collects all of the data listed in the Department of Defense's 2013 Base Structure Report. The official report doesn't include the military's secret bases, though, so Begley has included others that have been unearthed—and he encourages people to submit information for others that he's missing.

The resulting collection is mind-boggling. At the top, there's a zoomable world map with all of the installations plotted. Keep zooming in, and eventually the map will reveal the satellite imagery for each location, assuming it exists. As Begley points out, plenty of sites have been censored from public view.

Mapping the United States Military Footprint

Please consider Mapping the United States Military Footprint on Google Maps Mania (an unofficial Google Maps blog tracking the websites, mashups and tools being influenced by Google Maps).

The United States has well over 700 military bases across the planet with official facilities in at least 37 countries. Empire.is is a map showing the location of United States military installations, not only in the US but around the world.

As well as mapping known United States military installations Empire.es also provides aerial imagery of a large number of the bases, sourced from Google and Bing Maps.

The data for the military locations is from the 2013 Base Structure Report and from sites reported by journalists and geographers. The author of the map says that there are still many military bases missing from the map.

Image from Empire.Is

Questions

Given that any satellite can pick up this information, is there any rational reason to have "secret bases"?
Is any base really a secret?
Would US security be hampered if 25% of the bases were shut down? 50%? 80%?

The answers are 1-no, 2-no, 3-no, no, no.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Giving a Sperm Sample in Sweden

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 01:19 PM PST

I wonder if it's different in other countries.

The Hottest Celebrity Dresses of 2013

Posted: 13 Dec 2013 01:07 PM PST

Here are the sexiest celebrity dresses of the year.

Jennifer Lawrence

Jessie J

Katy Perry

Jennifer Lopez

Gwyneth Paltrow

Ke$a

Kim Kardashian

Miley Cyrus

Iggi Azalea

Jamie Alexander

Naya Rivera

Rihanna

A moment for Newtown

Friday, December 13, 2013

A moment for Newtown

On December 14th, one year ago tomorrow, we lost 26 fellow Americans to gun violence at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut. We lost 20 of our youngest students, and six dedicated school workers.

To mark the anniversary of that senseless tragedy, President Obama will honor those lost at Sandy Hook with a moment of silence tomorrow morning at 9:30 a.m. ET. We'd like you to join.

Join the moment of silence tomorrow, and help honor the victims of Newtown, Connecticut.

Take a moment for Newtown tomorrow at 9 a.m. ET

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West Wing Week: "Madiba, Farewell"

Featured

West Wing Week: "Madiba, Farewell"

This week, the Vice President wrapped up a six-day diplomatic mission to Japan, China, and the Republic of Korea, while the President spoke on achieving peace in the Middle East at the Saban Forum, helped to light the National Christmas Tree, and traveled to Johannesburg to honor the life and legacy of Nelson Mandela.

Click here to watch this week's West Wing Week:

Mobile App Metrics that Matter - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 12 Dec 2013 03:14 PM PST

Posted by adamsinger

Releasing a mobile app to the public is certainly an accomplishment, but launch day is nowhere near the end of the process. It's just as vital to measure people's interaction with your apps as it is to measure their interaction with your web properties.

In today's Whiteboard Friday, Adam Singerâ€"Google's analytics advocateâ€"walks us through some of the most important metrics to watch to make sure your app is as successful as possible.

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard!

Video Transcription

Howdy, Moz fans. I am Adam Singer (Twitter, Google+), Product Marking Manager on Google Analytics, as well as blogger at TheFutureBuzz.com, and I happen to be up here in Seattle and the Moz folk asked me if I'd be willing to do a Whiteboard Friday. So I've actually been watching Whiteboard Fridays for probably the last six or seven years. It feels like that long. I don't know if you guys have been doing them that long, but it feels like a long time.

So I'm excited to come in today and chat with you about a subject I've been talking about at conferences all over the world, we've been sharing on our blog, on ClickZâ€"I write a once monthly column at ClickZâ€"mobile app analytics. So app analytics are really important. Pew just did research. More than half of Americans now own a smartphone. We've also seen a lot of really interesting pieces of research sharing that for some retailers they're actually getting more conversions on mobile via apps and via mobile sites than desktop.

So, obviously, apps are really important, and via our own research that we did on the Analytics Team, last year we found that around 87% of marketers are actually planning to increase their emphasis on mobile app analytics and app measurement into 2013. We also found out that around half of marketers were either completely new or novice at app analytics, so they didn't have much experience.

So this is an area as a marketer, if you've never measured a mobile app before, it's an area you're going to need to get into, because in the future I think pretty much every company that is interested in maintaining a relationship with their users in a location-agnostic setting, not just in front of their desktop, but wherever they go, will have a mobile app.

So I want to talk about some important mobile app metrics that matter. So, thank you, Jennifer, on the Moz teamâ€"sorry, Moz, not SEOmoz anymoreâ€"drew my little diagram for me. So really the buckets for apps that matter are really three: acquisition, engagement, and outcomes. So let's go through these metrics, and it's slightly different than web. So if you've only measured on web, this will be different, but at the same time there's a sort of one-to-one with different metrics, for example pages and screens per session.

So let's take a look. For acquisition metrics, app downloads are really important. So when you're acquiring new users, you definitely want to look at who's actually downloading your app, what channels are most effective at acquisition, what channels are actually bringing you high quality users.

You also want to look at new users and active users. So this is important. You want to make sure you're not just acquiring a whole bunch of new users, but you want to make sure that you actually have a steady stream of people actively launching your app. So when we talk about engagement in just a second, we'll show you why that's important. But I think a lot of marketers make the mistake of doing a good job bringing people to their app download page, getting people to install the app, and then they're really not concerned with if that user sticks around. For apps it's really important. If people download your app, use it once and then never use it again, you've kind of failed.

Also for acquisition, demographics are really important for apps. So you especially want to look at where people are coming from; which on apps is really interesting because they might not be at home, they might be at home; as well as acquisition channels. So whether you have an android or an iOS app, the channels that your users come from are going to be pretty important, and if you're already looking at web analytics, these will be familiar to you. You'll see acquisition sources from search, hopefully from email campaigns. If you're doing that to market your app via email, make sure you tag those links. And how people are coming to your page in the Play Store. In the iOS marketplace, it's a little bit more of a black box, but certainly you'll still want to take a look.

Next up under engagement, so engagement metrics are really important for apps. I'd actually say engagements are the most important metrics to look at, because, again, if people install your app once and never launch it again, you've kind of failed. So engagement flow is important for apps. These are reports we have in Google Analytics mobile app analytics, but certainly no matter what app analytics platform that you're using, there will be a visualization tool to actually look at how people move through your app, as well, app screens, so what screens people look at. App screens is an interesting one because you could have a lot of people viewing multiple screens on your app. Is this a good thing? Maybe.

You want to take a look at are they actually accomplishing what you want, because you might have too many screens. What we've seen for apps is that by reducing the number of screens and perhaps putting more content on one screen that someone can slide through, get an overview of quickly, and then drill down into a more specific feature or screen on your app, you can increase the engagement with your app significantly rather than creating frustration if someone has to continue to click on different screens on your app to get to what they want. So I think you'll notice a lot of the apps that are most sticky for you, at least I find, actually have less screens.

Loyalty and retention is really important. So whatever app analytics tool you're using, you want to be looking at your loyalty reports to determine who's launching your app, not just one or two times, but you want to see in a given month people launching your app 10 times, 11 times, 20 times, even 50 times.

So if your app is really sticky, people will be using it more consistently. So really, if you have a lot of people downloading your app, but then you notice those same users aren't very loyal, they're not launching your app a lot of times throughout the month, you want to reevaluate your app before you go out and do more acquisition, because there's nothing worse than spending more money in online advertising and mobile app advertising to get more users if they're not engaging with your app.

So figure that out soon. Make sure that your app is sticky. This is even more important than web because what you want ideally is you want to be using your analytics to make your app better, and you want it to be so good that it's on the home screen of your user's device. It's not buried on a second or third screen that they never actually launch on their iPhone or on their Android.

So that gets us to outcomes, everyone's favorite report. So if you're kicking butt with acquisition and you have a really sticky app that people are using all the time, you'll want to next focus on outcomes. So outcomes, similar to web, are really conversion areas for our app, where we're actually making money; metrics that have economic impact for our business.

So, things like app sales, if people are actually buying your app, that would show up in outcome reports. Ad monetization, if you have in-app monetization for ads, that's a great way to monetize your app. Especially if you have a game, it's a great way to make money from your app using a tool like AdMob. You want to determine how you can maximize ad revenue without being intrusive, because you definitely don't want to have an ad experience in an app that's going to detract from the app.

You want to make sure that's it's a balance. If you're a new site, you want to make sure that there are not ads coming over your content and causing users to accidentally click them. You want to make sure that the ads are relevant and that the ads are useful, and that they're not disruptive to the experience.

You also want to consider in-app purchases. So if you're a game app, for example, a lot of game apps are really successful at charging users to unlock secret features or extra things inside your app. Maybe it's a way to get an advantage over the other players in the game. In-app purchases is a great way to do that. You want to measure those and determine which in-app purchases are sticky. I have a few friends that are app developers, and that's the bread and butter of their monetization for their apps.

You'll also want to look at goal conversion. So if you actually don't sell anything in your app, if you're, for example, E*Trade - and I have an E*Trade account, I'm a big fan of theirs - you would want to track goal conversions, such as maybe to them a goal conversion is me looking at the trade screen or me looking at my portfolio or some other action in the app. Because what you don't want is to not know what success looks like in your app.

You want to understand what you want your users doing, and that way you can actually have some goals to measure against. If you're not selling anything in your app, just like on web, assign a value to those goals. Because once you do that, all of these other buckets become more interesting when you can do segmentation and you want to look at, "Hey, what users on the acquisition side of the equation are actually coming through to purchase?" Or, "Which users are engaging really well, but aren't necessarily making me more revenue?"

So you'll want to segment that data, and you'll want to look at which users are completing your desired goals. So that's just a service level overview.

Some other things that I didn't go through were the developer reports, like crashes and exceptions. Certainly, if you have an app, those are important as well. If you're a marketer, look at those reports too, because you want to push your development team to eliminate any of the crashes in your app. Those aren't good things. You can suffer attrition, certainly, unless your app is really, really sticky. People might launch it once, and enough crashes they might not ever come back. So those are important reports to look at too.

But I just wanted to provide an overview to you guys today. Hopefully, you are measuring apps right now. We have a free app analytics tool at Google.

But no matter what app tool you use, you definitely want to be measuring. Data is really important for apps. If you have any questions, feel free to tweet at me @AdamSinger. Always happy to help out with app measurement, and have an awesome weekend Mozzers.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

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Seth's Blog : Getting lost on the shelf

Getting lost on the shelf

A friend got some feedback on a new project proposal recently. "It will have trouble standing out on a shelf that's already crowded."

The thing is, every shelf in every store and especially online is crowded. The long tail made the virtual shelves infinitely long, which means that every record, every widget, every job application, every book, every website, every non-profit... all of it... is on a crowded shelf.

And the problem with a crowded shelf is that your odds of getting found and getting picked are slim indeed, slimmer than ever before.

Which is why 'the shelf' can't be your goal. If you need to get picked from the shelf/slush pile/transom catchbasin then you've already lost.

The only opportunity (which of course, is the best opportunity ever for most of us) is to skip depending on being found on the shelf and go directly to people who care. To skip the shelf and get talked about. To skip the shelf and be the one and only dominator in a category of one, a category that couldn't really exist if you weren't in it.

That's hard to visualize, because it doesn't match what you've been taught and what our culture has (until recently) celebrated, but it's what's on offer now.

Shelf space is available to all of us, but by itself, it's insufficient for much of anything.