Central Perk

joi, 16 ianuarie 2014

Meet Troy:

Hello, all --

Today, I met a young man named Troy.

Troy comes from New Orleans, where his family lived through the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. He couldn't read until he was twelve, and would regularly cut school because the other students would tease him. When he did attend, he'd shove desks, start fights -- anything to get him out of class.

But then Troy saw his younger siblings start down a similar path. And he decided to make a change. He connected with his fifth-grade teacher, and enrolled in a program called the Urban League College Track. With the support of College Track and his teachers, he worked hard and made his way into high school -- and today, he's a sophomore at Bard College, studying American Literature.

There are a lot of kids like Troy out there -- kids with all the potential in the world -- but far too many of them are slipping through the cracks. They're not making their way to college -- maybe because their parents never went, or because they've never been encouraged to believe they could succeed there.

It's on all of us to help change that.

That's why today, Barack and I hosted college and university presidents, business leaders, philanthropists, and representatives from organizations around the country who are helping more of our kids see their potential and pursue their education. They're helping them navigate the financial aid and college admissions process. They're working with them to find schools that match their ability and interests. And they've made real, concrete commitments to help make college a reality for more kids.

And here's the thing: You don't have to be a university president or an executive to do that. There is something that each and every one of us can do in our communities to help make sure our kids realize their potential and make their way into higher education. That could mean having a conversation with a young neighbor or a relative, serving as a mentor, or volunteering at a local high school to help students fill out their college applications.

So I'm asking you today to make a commitment of your own -- and learn more about the commitments that universities and organizations from around the country are making, too.

I'm passionate about helping our young people because I see my story in theirs.

Neither of my parents graduated from college, but they always encouraged me to pursue my education and told me that college was possible. And I know that there are so many kids out there just like me: kids who have a world of potential but need some encouragement and support to make it through college.

That's why I was so inspired by some of the commitments I learned about today.

Universities are taking steps like helping underserved students with financial literacy, or finding innovative ways for academic advisors to better support students who could use a helping hand. And many colleges are working with organizations like the Posse Foundation to give kids the social and academic support they'll need to graduate.

These kinds of programs aren't just good for these young people. They're good for all of us. Because after everything these kids will have overcome to get to college -- and get through college -- they'll have all the skills they need to thrive in our businesses, and law firms, and labs. And that's not just good for them and their families, it's good for their communities and our country. That's why Barack is working every single day to expand opportunities to every single young person in America. And that's why we're working to rally the country around his "North Star" goal – that by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.

Reaching that goal begins with each of us doing our part as parents, students, educators, and citizens.

We can all help a young person realize his or her potential, so I hope you'll learn more about the commitments that organizations and schools around the country are making -- and then make a commitment of your own:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/share/college-opportunity

Thanks in advance for everything you will do on behalf of America's young people.

First Lady Michelle Obama

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A Wide Bandgap What?

Featured

A Wide Bandgap What?

Yesterday, President Obama visited Raleigh, NC to talk about making the area a magnet for the good, high-tech manufacturing jobs, as a manufacturing innovation hub.

The hub will develop "wide bandgap semiconductors" -- that use 90% less power than conventional ones, and will make everything from cell phones to electric cars smaller, faster, and cheaper.

Find out what makes wide bandgap semiconductors so cool. (Really.)

Announcing the Brand New Beginner's Guide to Social Media

Posted: 15 Jan 2014 03:10 PM PST

Posted by Trevor-Klein

I'm both honored and excited to announce the release of a second beginner's guide from Moz: The Beginner's Guide to Social Media.

The prevalence and importance of social media to web marketing can't be overstated. To quote a few statistics from the guide itself, 72% of online adults use social networking sites, and YouTube now reaches more U.S. adults aged 18-34 than any cable network. With that kind of traffic, it's no wonder marketers now use these networks to interact with their customers, and there's plenty more data to prove it. Google searches for "social media" have seen a steady rise since early 2009:

Data from this year's industry survey tell a similar story. In 2012, nearly 20% of respondents reported not using any social media tools; this year, that number was down to 11%. On top of that, 63% of respondents indicated that their demand for social media marketing has increased over the last year. Whether you've been in on the game from the very beginning or are just starting to wonder how social tools can apply to your own professional life, this guide was created to help take you to the next level. Click below to dive in, or keep reading for more details!

Read the Beginner's Guide to Social Media

What's inside

There's something for everyone in here, from the fundamentals of how social media is used to details about individual platforms and overarching best practices. Here's a list of the chapters you'll find in the guide:

1. Introduction	7. Twitter
2. The Value of Social Media	8. Google+
3. Social Media Best Practices	9. LinkedIn
4. Social Media Metrics and ROI	10. YouTube and Pinterest
5. Finding the Right Social Network for You	11. Blogging
6. Facebook	12. Social Media Doesn't Stop There

The first section of the guide talks about social media in general, offering a plethora of best practices, a clear sense of the value of social media, ways you can measure your success in this endeavor, and recommendations on how to get started. From there, we dive into individual sites, slicing and dicing each of the major social media platforms and offering a consistent set of topics about each.

Here's a run-through of what you'll find:

Key stats and demographics

How many people are using these networks, and what kinds of people are they? When it comes to figuring out which social networks are right for you to use, it helps to know who you might be able to reach by developing a presence. This section is designed to give you the who, what, where, and when of each platform. You'll find infographics with statistics as well as some more general info.

How are people using the platform?

While the previous section covers who, what, where and when, this one covers the how and why of each platform. With uses ranging from establishing thought leadership to building customer advocates, this section (complete with innovative pro-tips) will give you a clearer picture of why you might want to choose one platform over another.

Strategies and tactics for success

Okay; you've decided to dive in. Success comes in different ways for different platforms, though, so how do you maximize your chances of seeing early results? This section is all about starting you in the right direction, making sure you can learn from the mistakes of everyone who came before you instead of from your own.

What success looks like

Many people learn better when they can see a great example of what they're going for, and while there's certainly no "best" way of going about your presence on any particular network, there's a great deal you can learn by examining some of the biggest success stories for each network. The sites listed in this section are all continuously finding new and innovative practices, so checking back in on them once in a while will help keep you up-to-date.

Etiquette tips and guidelines

At their hearts, all of these networks are really just tools to facilitate different kinds of social interactions. For that reason, there exists an unwritten code of etiquette for each. Most of this code mirrors basic human etiquette, but in new environments it's easy to make accidental slips. This section aims to point out some of the ways in which folks end up harming the trust and authority of their brands by ruffling their audiences' feathers, reducing the chances of any accidental train wrecks.

Recommended tools

While the platforms themselves are full of functionality, there are other tools on the web that can really take your social presence to the next level, offering you everything from scheduling functionality to insight and analytics not offered by the networks. For each of the major platforms, we list our favorite tools and talk about how they can help your efforts.

Okay, great! Let's get to reading!

Thank-yous

This guide would never have been possible if not for the absolutely tireless efforts of the following folks.

Thanks to Kristy Bolsinger for actually writing the guide, for her expertise, and for her patience during the editorial process; Rob Eagle for his energy and vision in creating graphics for the guide; Ashley Tate for wrangling the process and polishing the early drafts; and the many Mozzers who worked to bring the guide to life.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

My Final Post as CEO: Sarah Bird Has the Conn

Posted: 15 Jan 2014 07:49 AM PST

Posted by randfish

In case you missed the post on my blog last month, we have some big news to share: I'm officially handing over the reins as CEO, and am thrilled to welcome our President and COO Sarah Bird into the role. I sat down with Sarah for a conversation about our memories from working together these past seven years and our plans for the future at Moz.

Quick editor's note: We're working on a transcription, but wanted to get you all this video as soon as we possibly could. :-)

Seth's Blog : Can I pay you to do me a favor?

Can I pay you to do me a favor?

Simple concept with big implications: In small groups, money corrupts.

In environments that are built on personal interaction and trust among intimates, transactions based on money don't increase efficacy, they degrade it.

At the other end of the scale, in transactions between strangers, cash scales. Cash enables us to interact with people we don't know and probably won't see again.

But if you want to build the intimate circle that lives on favors and gift exchange, don't bring cash. Bring generosity and vulnerability.

• Email to a friend •

miercuri, 15 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Scranton Residents Plead for Bankruptcy vs. Higher Taxes; Different Than Detroit
Bubble Valuation Blues; GMO 7-Year Outlook for U.S. Stocks is Negative
Gallup Poll: #1 U.S. Problem is Government, the Economy is #2
Retirement Sunset Math: Number of Employed vs. Population Over Time

Scranton Residents Plead for Bankruptcy vs. Higher Taxes; Different Than Detroit

Posted: 15 Jan 2014 07:12 PM PST

City officials in Scranton Pennsylvania have ignored pleas from residents pleading for bankruptcy.

Instead, the city raised property taxes and trash fees nearly 60% and tripled rental registration fees. The city's school district, which faced a $4-million deficit, raised taxes 2.4%. The City Council, which in 2012 passed a 5% amusement tax on live entertainment, is now discussing a 10% drink tax.

As a result, taxpayer who can are fleeing the city.

The LA Times reports For Scranton residents, bankruptcy is an inviting option

When Detroit filed for bankruptcy, hundreds of residents took to the streets to protest what they saw as a drastic approach to fixing the city's budget problems.

But in this hilly town of 76,000 in northeastern Pennsylvania, residents have a different view of Chapter 9: They want the city to declare bankruptcy. And soon.

"The silent majority would like to see bankruptcy," said Bob "Ozzie" Quinn, president of the Scranton and Lackawanna County Taxpayers Assn. "Basically, it's down to a point where people cannot afford to pay the taxes and are moving out of town."

The City Council, which in 2012 passed a 5% amusement tax on live entertainment, is now discussing a 10% drink tax. The city's parking authority is in receivership, and it recently privatized its parking meters: The company in charge upped rates and extended meter hours to 6 p.m., which bar owner Mert Gavin says has motivated workers to skip happy hour and head home to the suburbs straight after work.

"I am one of the last two bars that's still downtown. Tink's is gone. Whistle's is gone, Banshee's is gone, Molly Brannigan's is gone," said Gavin, who runs Mert's. "Do they expect I'm going to bail the city of Scranton out myself?"

The taxes are especially egregious to some because so many of the city's residents are elderly and living on fixed incomes. The median household income in Scranton is $37,000, and nearly one-fifth of residents live below the poverty line.

The city's financial problems were accelerated by a 2011 Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision that found that the city owed its police and firefighters unions back pay — about $21 million. The settlement money became due in 2013, but the city bickered over how to come up with the funds for so long that Moody's warned in November that Scranton faced the threat of default.

"It's been nonstop. They raised the water fees, the electric, the gas," said Richard Laytos, a Scranton native who moved back to the city to retire in 1997 after 44 years in New Jersey.

Gary Lewis, who once ran a blog, scrantonisbroke, that urged city leaders to consider bankruptcy, took a drastic step when they failed to do so: He moved out of the city where he'd spent his whole life.

"I did the math — realized how much it was costing me to live in the city," said Lewis, who now lives in Indiana, where he says he makes $2,500 more a year because of lower taxes. "That's the story of my generation. There's a lot of kids like me, who grew up, went to college at Scranton, but they turn 22 and move out of the city, and they don't move back because it's not a financially attractive proposition."

bankruptcy won't solve the city's financial woes, said John Judge, president of the local firefighters union. "It's a horrible idea — you take local control out of the hands of policymakers, and put it in some judge's hand," he said.

Neither the city's new mayor nor his predecessor, Chris Doherty, returned calls for comment, but former City Council President Janet Evans said she and Doherty had been determined to avoid bankruptcy.

"We are in a different situation than Detroit," she said. "We were willing and able to do everything within the scope of our authority to continue the recovery of the city of Scranton until it sits once again on sound financial ground."

My Thoughts

Officials in city hall are either complete financial-morons, beholden to the unions, or beholden to their own pension plans that would take a hit if the city declared bankruptcy.

I suspect a combination.

Different Than Detroit

"We are in a different situation than Detroit," says former City Council President Janet Evans.

Indeed.

Detroit is better off.

In bankruptcy, Detroit has a chance to dump union contracts and onerous pension promises. Detroit may have hit bottom.

The economic-jackasses in Scranton are going to extract every ounce of blood they can from taxpayers, then eventually declare bankruptcy anyway.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Bubble Valuation Blues; GMO 7-Year Outlook for U.S. Stocks is Negative

Posted: 15 Jan 2014 12:29 PM PST

Value investor Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo (GMO) now estimates US stocks are poised for annualized losses for the next seven years.

*The chart represents real return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any GMO fund or strategy. These forecasts are forward-looking statements based upon the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future performance. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and GMO assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. US inflation is assumed to mean revert to long-term inflation of 2.2% over 15 year.

A year ago the chart looked like this.

Charts from GMO Asset Class Forecasts.

Reflections on Extreme Valuations

Was GMO wrong last year? Of course not. Expected returns are just that. Extreme valuations can always become even more extreme (and they did).

My Thoughts:

During periods of market excess, avoiding bubbles and instead investing in out of favor but attractive assets can be quite painful to live through in the short-term. But those who remain disciplined and on the right side of the somber judgment eventually get rewarded with significant gains amid widespread losses for those favoring that which has been working well during the period of excess.

GMO 10-Year History

Let's step back a bit and look at GMO's 10-Year history from 1999-2009. Please consider a chart from What a Decade!

Highlighting in yellow is mine.

In December 1999, GMO thought the S&P 500 would deliver negative returns for a decade. In 2007 that prediction probably looked ridiculous. Yet, it happened.

When GMO predicts negative returns, it's smart to pay attention.

Here are GMO's "Lessons Learned in the Decade".

Lessons Learned

The Fed wields even more financial influence than we thought.
Low rates have a more powerful effect on driving financial assets than on driving the economy.
The Fed is capable of being extremely out of touch with the real world – "what housing bubble?" – plus more doctrinaire – "no, the low rates had no effect on housing" – than anyone could have imagined.
Congress is nearly dysfunctional, primarily controlled by large corporations, and hamstrung by the supermajority now routinely required in the Senate.
Government administrations can be incompetent for long periods.
Poor leadership can really damage a country's hard- won reputation in a mere 10 years.
Obama is not a miracle worker!
The two time-tested investment tools, value (P/E ratios and P/B ratios) and price momentum, are now much more heavily used and not so reliable as they once were, say from 1977 to 1997.
Asset classes really are more inefficiently priced than individual stocks on average, and therefore offer greater opportunities for adding value and reducing risk.
Developed countries, including the U.S., are past their prime compared with developing countries: it is indeed a new world order.
Education and training are the keys to increasing wealth on a sustainable basis and the U.S. is in danger of losing its once large edge here.
We all live on an island, which can be overexploited and turned into a barren Easter Island if we are not careful. Resources are finite and biodiversity is fragile, and both must be protected. Carbon emissions are the single greatest threat.
Being a global policeman is expensive, and somewhere between difficult and impossible.
The Fed learns no lessons!

Fed Uncertainty Principle Revisited

The only point I disagree with is number 12 "carbon emissions are the single greatest threat" to finite resources and biodiversity.

Arguably the most important points are 1-3 and 14 "The Fed learns no lessons".

Readers will recognize those points as part of my Fed Uncertainty Principle, written April 3, 2008, before the big collapse.

Fed Uncertainty Principle:
The fed, by its very existence, has completely distorted the market via self reinforcing observer/participant feedback loops. Thus, it is fatally flawed logic to suggest the Fed is simply following the market, therefore the market is to blame for the Fed's actions. There would not be a Fed in a free market, and by implication there would not be observer/participant feedback loops either.

Corollary Number One:
The Fed has no idea where interest rates should be. Only a free market does. The Fed will be disingenuous about what it knows (nothing of use) and doesn't know (much more than it wants to admit), particularly in times of economic stress.

Corollary Number Two: The government/quasi-government body most responsible for creating this mess (the Fed), will attempt a big power grab, purportedly to fix whatever problems it creates. The bigger the mess it creates, the more power it will attempt to grab. Over time this leads to dangerously concentrated power into the hands of those who have already proven they do not know what they are doing.

Corollary Number Three:
Don't expect the Fed to learn from past mistakes. Instead, expect the Fed to repeat them with bigger and bigger doses of exactly what created the initial problem.

Corollary Number Four:
The Fed simply does not care whether its actions are illegal or not. The Fed is operating under the principle that it's easier to get forgiveness than permission. And forgiveness is just another means to the desired power grab it is seeking.

Bubble Valuation Blues

It's not just GMO singing the bubble valuation blues. John Hussman has independently concluded the same thing.

On November 11, 2013 in Textbook Pre-Crash Bubble Hussman commented "The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak. There's no calling the top, and most of the signals that have been most historically useful for that purpose have been blazing red since late-2011."

Such is the nature of the game. Everyone thinks they can get out at the top. Few ever do.

Hovering With an Anvil

Please consider this snip from Hussman's Hovering With an Anvil from January 13 (emphasis mine).

The ratio of nonfinancial equity market capitalization to GDP is about twice its pre-bubble norm, and is presently associated with an expectation of negative total returns for the S&P 500 over the coming decade. Measures based on properly normalized earnings are a little bit more favorable, with the overall outcome that we broadly expect nominal total returns for the S&P 500 of about 2.3% annually over the coming decade, with negative total returns on horizons of less than about 7 years.

Keep in mind that the 2000-2002 decline wiped out the entire total return of the S&P 500, in excess of Treasury bills, all the way back to May 1996. The 2007-2009 decline wiped out the entire total return of the S&P 500, in excess of Treasury bills, all the way back to June 1995. Our present expectations are rather conservative by comparison.

I side with GMO and Hussman.

Wine Country Conference II

I am pleased to again mention that John Hussman is a speaker and host of the second annual Wine Country Conference will be held May 1st & 2nd, 2014.

We have an exciting lineup of speakers for this year's conference.

John Hussman: Founder of Hussman Funds, Director of the John P. Hussman Foundation which is dedicated to providing life-changing assistance through medical research
Steen Jakobsen: Chief Economist of Saxo Bank
Stephanie Pomboy: Founder of MacroMavens macroeconomic research
David Stockman: Ronald Reagan's budget director, best-selling author, former Managing Director of The Blackstone Group
Mebane Faber: Co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management
Jim Bruce: Producer, Director, and Writer of Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve
Chris Martenson: Reknown speaker and founder of Peak Prosperity
Mike "Mish" Shedlock: Investment advisor for Sitka Pacific and Founder of Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

In addition, we expect confirmation from a number of other highly respected fund managers and speakers. This year's event is two days and will include additional "break-out" groups.

For speaker bios, please check out Wine Country Conference Speakers.

This Year's Cause: Autism

$100,000 of the money raised last year came from a generous matching grant from the John P. Hussman Foundation.

Some of us in the industry who have done well are making an effort to give something back. John Hussman is at the very top of that list.

One of John's kids has severe autism. This year, all net proceeds will go to support autism programs.

Conference Details

For further details about the 2014 conference, please see Wine Country Conference May 1st & 2nd, 2014

Nothing Like It!

This event is not just another "come and hear someone talk" kind of thing. Attendees and their significant others can expect an educational, fun, and relaxed time.

Last conference, we arranged wine tours. They were a big hit. We will do so again. One of the wine estates we visited had a Bocce Ball court. On a couple of miracle shots, I won both games I played.

Stay an extra day and golf or travel. I did. The conference hotel is a fun place in and of itself.

Unlike many other conferences, you will have easy access to speakers.

Want to chat with me, Steen, John, or anyone else at the conference? You will have an easy chance.

Not only do we have an excellent lineup of speakers, you will have an opportunity to meet with them, have intimate discussions on important investment topics, with a lot of fun on the side, including wine tours and great wine.

There's nothing like it in the investment business. And your money goes to a great cause! What can be better?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Gallup Poll: #1 U.S. Problem is Government, the Economy is #2

Posted: 15 Jan 2014 10:33 AM PST

An interesting Gallup poll shows Government Itself Still Cited as Top U.S. Problem

Mentions of the government as the top problem remain higher than they were prior to the partial government shutdown in October. During the shutdown, the percentage naming the government as the top problem doubled to 33% from 16% in September.

Compared with a year ago, mentions of government are up slightly. Mentions of healthcare, on the other hand, have quadrupled -- from 4% in January 2013 to 16% today, likely related to highly visible problems with the rollout of the 2010 healthcare law. At the same time, references to the federal deficit or debt have declined from 20% to 8%, while mentions of the economy in general have dipped from 21% to 18%, and mentions of unemployment/jobs are the same, at 16%.

Overall Results

By Political Party

Additional breakdowns in the report.

If one lumped the economy and unemployment together, the percentage would be 34% overall, 31% by Republicans, 37% by Independents, and 34% by Democrats.

Curiously, lack of money and rich-poor gap were low across the board despite all the protests for higher minimum wages and despite all the media and presidential touting of wage gaps.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Retirement Sunset Math: Number of Employed vs. Population Over Time

Posted: 14 Jan 2014 11:43 PM PST

As we face retirement sunset demographics, inquiring minds might be wondering how many people are left to foot the bill for retiree Medicare, health care, public union pensions, and Social Security promises vs. the number of people collecting benefits.

The following charts from reader Tim Wallace will help put things into perspective.

Employment vs. Population

click on any chart for sharper image

Federal Spending Per Worker

The above chart is just federal spending. It does not include state and local pension promises or healthcare costs

If you think promises made cannot possibly be kept, even with huge tax hikes, you are thinking correctly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

joi, 16 ianuarie 2014

Meet Troy:

A Wide Bandgap What?

Announcing the Brand New Beginner's Guide to Social Media

Announcing the Brand New Beginner's Guide to Social Media