Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Retail Sales Cannibalization
- Emerging Market Contagion Spreads; Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey Roundup; 50% Tax on Internet Purchases
- Anecdotes From Home Depot Employee
Posted: 24 Jan 2014 07:40 PM PST Retail firings continue. Today, Wal-Mart announced a 2% Reduction in Sam's Club Employees to thin middle-manager ranks. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) is laying off about 2,300 employees at its Sam's Club warehouse unit to help thin the ranks of middle managers in its weakest stores, marking the club chain's biggest round of job cuts in four years.J.C. Penney Cutting 33 Stores and 2,000 Jobs The Sam's Club cuts are fresh on the heels of this announcement: J.C. Penney cutting 33 stores and 2,000 jobs J.C. Penney Co. is attempting to right-size itself by closing 33 under-performing stores around the country and eliminating 2,000 positions, the retailer said Wednesday.Macy's to Lay Off 2,500 Employees Also recall this announcement earlier this month: Macy's to Lay Off 2,500 Employees Amid Cost-Cutting In the same breath as it announced a "successful" holiday season, Macy's Inc. said it would lay off some 2,500 employees as it attempts to achieve $100 million in savings a year.Customer Cannibalization Let's now return to the lead story, Sam's Club. "CEO Brewer aims to better compete with brick-and-mortar rival Costco as well as to take on online membership clubs like Amazon Prime service. She seeks to double revenue and turn it into a $100 billion business, roughly the size of Costco." Is that remotely possible? If so how? The only way it is possible is via reducing prices and costs to the bare bone and taking customers away from Amazon, Macy's, J.C. Penny and its own parent company, Wal-Mart. The deflationary repercussions are enormous. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 24 Jan 2014 11:02 AM PST Argentina Institutes 50% Tax on Internet Purchases; Emerging Market Contagion Spreads; Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey Roundup Yesterday, Argentina devalued the Peso hoping to halt further declines in its currency reserves. Markets had seen this coming as charts of the Peso vs. the US dollar show. Peso vs. US Dollar One Week Peso vs. US Dollar One Month Peso vs. US Dollar Five Years In the past 12 hours the peso fell as low as 8.164 to the dollar but currently sits at 7.164. Using the current close of 7.164 as our reference, here is a summary.
The 5-year decline is over 50%. Emerging Market Contagion Spreads Bloomberg reports Contagion Spreads in Emerging Markets as Crises Grow The worst selloff in emerging-market currencies in five years is beginning to reveal the extent of the fallout from the Federal Reserve's tapering of monetary stimulus, compounded by political and financial instability.Argentina Devaluation Yesterday, Bloomberg reported Argentina Devaluation Sends Currency Tumbling Most in 12 Years 50% Tax on Internet Purchases The BBC reports Argentina restricts online shopping as foreign reserves drop Argentina has introduced new restrictions on online shopping as part of efforts to stop foreign currency reserves from falling any further.Food Price Controls Earlier this month, Reuters reported Argentine peso at new lows as food price controls take effect Argentina's peso slid to an all-time low on Tuesday as supermarkets froze prices in a deal with the government aimed at shielding poor families from one of the world's highest inflation rates.Black Market Purchases Will Soar Price controls and currency pegs at ridiculous rates cause black markets. With the additional 50% tax on online purchases, expect black market trade to soar. Ag Connection Argentina gets what little foreign reserves it has, being the number 3 soybean and corn supplier, as well as its top provider of soymeal animal feed and soyoil, used in biofuels. Soybean Monthly Chart Corn Monthly Chart Soybean prices are still well above the 2009 lows, but are also far below the highs of a year ago. The price of corn is far below the highs of a year ago, and nearing the 2009 lows. These trends are heightening the already huge problems of emerging market exporters. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Anecdotes From Home Depot Employee Posted: 24 Jan 2014 09:19 AM PST In Target Drops Healthcare Coverage for Part-Time Workers I implied Target was disingenuous in its claim it would not reduce hours because of Obamacare. No Reduction in Hours?Although I do not have proof or even anecdotes from Target employees, I did receive an interesting email from "Pat", a Home Depot worker. Hi Mish,One email from one reader is not proof of anything. Heck, anecdotes in general do not constitute legitimate data. That said, I have received stacks of similar emails over the past year, all saying the same or similar thing. I even received an email from the owner of 50-store regional chain who said he was going to reduce hours (because he had to). Yet, Obama and mainstream media do not see (or admit) this happened. I maintain there is genuine supporting data for my thesis. For details, please see Employment vs. Jobs Discrepancy - December 2013 Data. Inquiring minds should also be interested in a related post Tsunami of Retail Store Closings and Downsizings Coming; Expect Layoffs and Shorter Hours. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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