vineri, 7 martie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


European Border Changes Over Last 1000 Years

Posted: 07 Mar 2014 01:57 PM PST

To help put the Russia-Ukraine battle over Crimea in proper perspective, here's a long historical look at European borders.



Link if video does not play: European Border Changes over Last 1000 Years

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Nonfarm Payrolls +175,000, Household Survey +42,000; Unemployment Rate 6.7%

Posted: 07 Mar 2014 07:59 AM PST

Initial Reaction

Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 175,000 vs. a Bloomberg consensus expectation of 150,000.

The employment change for December 2013 was revised up by 9,000 (from +75,000 to +84,000), and the employment change for January 2014 was revised up by 16,000 (from +113,000 to +129,000). The overall effect was a modest two-month upward revision of +25,000.

Beneath the surface, things look worse again. The household survey shows a gain of employment of only 42,000 while unemployment rose by 223,000.

February BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +175,000 - Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +42,000 - Household Survey
  • Unemployment: +223,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: -71,000 - Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: -138,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 6.7% - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 12.6% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +170,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: +264,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: -94,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: +0.0 at 63.0 - Household Survey

Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
  • In the past year the population rose by 2,257,000.
  • In the last year the labor force fell by 213,000.
  • In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,253,000
  • Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,044,000 (an average of 170,333 a month)

The population rose by over 2 million, but the labor force fell by over 200,000. People dropping out of the work force accounts for much of the declining unemployment rate.

February 2014 Employment Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) February 2014 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services and in wholesale trade but declined in information.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Nonfarm Employment January 2011 - February 2014



click on chart for sharper image

Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type



Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees declined 0.1 hours at 34.2 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees declined 0.2 hours to 33.0 hours.

Average hourly earnings of private workers rose $0.09 to $20.50. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.10 to $20.30.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Birth Death Model

Starting January, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I keep this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 6.7%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 12.6%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors

  1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
  2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
  3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
  4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job
  5. Disability and disability fraud

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 9%.

Synopsis

On the surface this month modestly beat expectation with a decent report of 175,000 jobs. Beneath the surface, things looked worse.


Correction: I originally stated the March 2013 adjustment of 369,000 (made just last month) was to the household survey. It was to the establishment survey. Sections revised accordingly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Interesting Facts About Bill Gates

Posted: 07 Mar 2014 09:36 AM PST

Your life becomes very interesting when you are a billionaire.
















Kayakers Found a Ship with a Great Story

Posted: 07 Mar 2014 08:47 AM PST

Kayakers found a ghost ship on the Ohio River.



They cautiously approached it, but decided to go inside for a peek.



Even though the ship was 110 years-old, it was structurally sound enough to explore.



Nature had completely taken over the ship.



The remnants of the engine and machinery were still on board.



It seemed like the ship had been sitting there for years.



As it turns out, it had. The vessel started out as a sight-seeing boat in New York City.



Then, it was repurposed to fight in both World Wars.



Thomas Edison even used it once during an experiment regarding communications technology.



The boat even made a cameo in Madonna's "Papa Don't Preach" music video.



In the 1980s, the ship was decommissioned and taken to a tributary near the owner's land. It has rested there ever since.



Even the rope attaching it to the shore shows its age.



Now, the boat still sits there silently in Ohio, full of history and memories.

Via queencitydiscovery.blogspot.com

Watch: The President's Week, in Five Minutes

 
 
 
 


  Featured

Watch: The President's Week, in Five Minutes

This week, the White House hosted its first-ever Student Film Festival, while the President addressed the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, presented his budget for Fiscal Year 2015, urged Congress to raise the minimum wage, and held a town hall on Latinos and the Affordable Care Act.

Watch all of that, and more, in the latest episode of West Wing Week:

Video player: Watch West Wing Week 3/7/14

 
 

  Top Stories

The Employment Situation in February

February 2014 was the 48th straight month of private-sector job growth, with businesses adding 8.7 million jobs over that time. Despite a major snowstorm that hit the East Coast during the reference week for the labor market surveys, the rate of job growth picked up from the December and January pace.

READ MORE

YouTube Stars Talk Health Care (and Make History) at the White House

Last week, senior administration officials sat down with some of the most popular content creators on YouTube to talk about the issues that they care the most about, including access to quality, affordable health care.

READ MORE

Opening Today: The 2014 Easter Egg Roll Ticket Lottery

Don't miss your chance to join the First Family for the 136th annual White House Easter Egg Roll. The big event is on Monday, April 21 and more than 30,000 people will join in on the fun. Guests will have a chance to participate in activities including games, stories, singing, dancing, and of course, the traditional egg roll -- all on the White House South Lawn.

READ MORE


 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

10:00 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

11:05 AM: The President and First Lady depart the White House en route Joint Base Andrews

11:20 AM: The President and First Lady depart Joint Base Andrews

1:40 PM: The President and First Lady arrive Homestead, Florida

2:25 PM: The President and First Lady visit a Coral Reef High School classroom

2:40 PM: The President delivers remarks WATCH LIVE

 

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5 Things I Wish I Knew as an Agency Marketer - Whiteboard Friday

5 Things I Wish I Knew as an Agency Marketer - Whiteboard Friday


5 Things I Wish I Knew as an Agency Marketer - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 06 Mar 2014 03:13 PM PST

Posted by dohertyjf

Working as an agency marketer is tough. I did it for a bit over two years and learned a lot of lessons. Along the way and since I have reflected about what would make me more successful as an agency marketer, and now that I am in-house at HotPads.com, I've come up with five things I wish I had known as an agency marketer. Never fear though, as there are some tidbits in there for the in-house crew as well!

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard!

Video Transcription

Howdy Moz fans. Welcome to Whiteboard Friday. My name is John Doherty. I currently lead Marketing at HotPads.com. Thank you Moz for having me back here on Whiteboard Friday. It's been a while since I've been here. I'm super-excited to be back in Seattle, able to get here on the camera and talk to you guys about a few things that are near and dear to my heart.

I've been at HotPads for about four months now. I joined them in San Francisco a few months ago, moving out from New York City to lead Marketing for HotPads, working with some of the other rentals businesses as well under the Zillow Inc. umbrella, both on the consumer side and the business-
to-business, B2B side.

But I worked for an agency for a couple of years. I worked for Distilled, based in New York City, and obviously I worked with a lot of clients, small clients, large clients, took a lot of pride in building relationships with my clients and getting things done. Distilled is phenomenal at that, and I felt like I learned a ton. I learned a ton about clients. But over the previous couple of months, I've really been reflecting and trying to figure out: What is really the difference between agency and in-house marketing?

I wrote a post about it on my own personal website, JohnFDoherty.com, which I don't write on there often enough. But I published a post on there recently about that difference. But today I want to take a little bit more focused approach to that, and I want to talk to you from the in-house perspective about five things that I wish I had known when I worked as an agency marketer working for clients.

So I have five points for you. Let's run through them real quick. First one is your client is the industry expert. What I mean by that is your client knows their industry, their vertical better than you know their vertical. You may be able to look at it from a domain authority perspective, who's ranking, who's creating content, who has social media going, who has a full-
fledged marketing team built out, who's just playing around, and who's spamming, who's building link networks. But you don't know their vertical, and you don't know their business. You don't know their monetization model nearly as well as they do.

So while you know the tactics, and one of the great things about agencies and one of the super valuable things about agencies is that you know the tactics and you can see across verticals. You know what's working in travel and what's working in real estate and what's working in video. You know what's going on across the broader spectrum. So that's where you can really add value to your client. You can tell them tactics, and you can tell them tactics that work across different verticals that they may not have thought about. But at the end of the day, they're the ones that know their business, and they know their vertical, from a business perspective, better than you do.

The second one is learn the whole marketing team. This is one that I struggled with early on in my career at Distilled. I was very focused on SEO, especially technical SEO, focused on site architecture and content and things like that. So I made sure to get to know the SEO. I made sure to get to know the SEO team, who does what, what's everyone's skills, all of that. For a long time, though, I failed to get to know their bosses. I failed to get to know who runs the marketing team. I failed to get to know the different sides of the marketing team and who does what. For example, in a big company, the marketing team may have five people in PR and three people in SEO and two people in email.

So talking tactics, such as email marketing strategies, with the SEO team when the SEO team has no ability to change the email marketing tactics isn't going to get you a long ways. However, this can be super valuable when you're talking with the SEO team about how they are going to be able to get buy-in with other teams to work together collaboratively with them to get more done on the SEO side. It's the old you scratch my back, I'm going to scratch yours sort of mentality.

The third is never forget that, as the agency, you are the outsource solution. Whether you like it or not, no matter how closely you get to your client, no matter how well you get to know them, no matter how often you go down to visit them, you are still the outsourced solution. You are not working there in-house with them all the time, part of the politics, seeing what's going on, knowing what the roadblocks are, knowing why certain things aren't getting done, or why certain things do get done. At the end of the day, you are still an outsourced solution that you were brought in for a reason. That's not necessarily a negative thing. Actually, from the in-house perspective now, I don't believe that's a negative thing at all, because you were brought in because you're the expert. You're the expert in SEO or technical SEO or link building or content marketing or social media marketing. You were brought in because that is what you own, and that's what you are known for, and so that is exactly the reason why you are there, not to be part of their marketing team.

However, what I learned in my time at Distilled is the closer you can get to the team, to the in-house team, the better you can get to know them, the more successful you are going to be.

This brings me to my fourth point. As an agency marketer, you're actually less responsible for results than you may think that you are. What I mean by this is ultimately the in-house team is the one that is responsible for the results. Myself, at HotPads, I am responsible for driving traffic, which drives leads which drives the business. If I hire an agency, you are not going to be responsible for driving traffic. You're going to be responsible for giving me deliverables that I can then use to go and turn into actionable things for my development team to do or for my marketing team to execute on.

To be successful as an agency marketer, what you need to do is you need to make sure that you are communicating with your client. That is the first and foremost, that you are communicating with your client, telling them when things are going to be in their inbox, what you're going to be delivering, why you are delivering it, what you're going to deliver next based off of the deliverable that you are currently working on, or spending a lot of time reporting. Honestly, I was really bad at this when I was at Distilled, reporting to my clients and telling them, "This is what we've done over the previous month, and this is what we're going to do over the next month."

That alone is invaluable to an in-house marketer, because then, as in-house marketer, if I'm given that from my agency that I'm working with, I can then go and set expectations with my bosses and tell them, "This is coming down from this agency. I expect it on this date. These are the things that they've done, and this is what we're doing with them."

Finally, this brings me to my fifth point, which is deadlines actually matter less than you think. Deadlines for deliverables actually matter a lot less than you might think. The reason for this is in-house marketers are very, very, very busy. Leading marketing at HotPads, I'm doing SEO. I'm helping out with the content strategy, helping my content manager with the content strategy, helping her meet the right people and get buy-in from the right people and figure out when to publish things and where do we publish things, and how do we push it on social media. I'm helping me email marketer get to know our developers and talk with people up here in our Seattle office, the email marketing team up here to find out what they're doing. We're strategizing about emails. I'm helping my link builder find new places to get links. We're strategizing about link building and measuring that and measuring the ROI on that.

So I'm very, very busy. Everyone on my team is very, very busy. All in-house marketers are very, very busy. We're all over the place. We're touching all sorts of different parts of marketing at some point and working very, very collaboratively, and I would suggest that any very successful in-house marketing team is all working collaboratively and not siloed away from other teams.

So all of this is to say that I really don't care about deadlines, and most in-house people aren't really going to care about deadlines. What's important for you as an agency marketer is going to be communicating with your client when something is going to be delivered. If you're going to be late, communicate that with them as soon as you're able to. If it's going to be a week late, let them know why. Things come up. Everyone understands that things come up. Maybe another client had an emergency. Maybe there was an algorithm change that they were hurt by, that their CEO is about to fire the whole marketing team if you don't jump in. Clients understand this. So what you need to do is you really need to communicate with them as soon as possible, as often as possible.

As an in-house marketer, speaking to the in-house guys for a second, you need to tell the agency exactly what you're dealing with, exactly what your responsibilities are. What keeps you busy day-to-day? There's nothing more frustrating as an agency marketer than being like, "Why can't I get a hold of my client? I know they're around. I know they're in there. Aren't they just like sitting there building links?" The answer is no. They're not just sitting there building links. They have a lot going on. So to be successful as an agency marketer, you need to find out from your clients exactly what keeps them busy day in, day out. So then you are able to not be a pain to them, but rather to help them do their job even better.

So these are five things that I wish I knew as an agency marketer now that I am in-house. Once again, my name is John Doherty. You can find me on Twitter, DohertyJF, and I'm happy to be back here. Please leave any comments you have below in the comments section. Thanks a lot. Have a great weekend.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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