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marți, 6 mai 2014
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Fantasy Healthcare Scenario, Reader Anecdotes, Wildcards; Capital IQ Healthcare Report Link
- No Fear
- End of Employer-Provided Healthcare: By 2020, S&P 500 Companies May Dump 90% of Workforce into Obamacare
- Annexation by Force; Three-Part Reality; Actions vs. Words; Paper Legalities
Fantasy Healthcare Scenario, Reader Anecdotes, Wildcards; Capital IQ Healthcare Report Link Posted: 06 May 2014 09:13 PM PDT In End of Employer-Provided Healthcare: By 2020, S&P 500 Companies May Dump 90% of Workforce into Obamacare I noted that the New York Times, Yahoo!, McClatchy and other mainstream media outlets referred to a healthcare report without having the decency of providing a link. Sadly, this is the norm. Bloomberg, Reuters and countless others are guilty of the same practice on numerous occasions. Link to the Report Reader Julian managed to find a link to the report. Please consider The Affordable Care Act Could Shift Health Care Benefit Responsibility Away From Employers, Potentially Saving S&P 500 Companies $700 Billion by S&P Capital IQ. Here are a few charts from the report. Historical and Estimated Healthcare Premiums Employer Healthcare Contributions Average Healthcare Premiums Using Its Proprietary Model, Global Market Intelligence Calculates Significant Cost Savings Potential For U.S. Companies To investigate the potential intermediate to long-term ramifications of the ACA, GMI Research constructed a proprietary model to evaluate how companies might, over time, move away from the traditional health care insurance relationship with employees. This model assesses the impact on both employees and corporate America, benchmarked by S&P 500 member companies. This study also evaluates a more general impact on the economy by including a review of companies that have more than 50 employees.Other Factors Other factors could contribute to greater savings, such as corporations altering their benefits relationship with retirees.Savings
The major assumption in Capital IQ's projection is the projected rate of healthcare cost increases. Table of Scenarios
Capital IQ's model assumes scenario 1 has a 40% likelihood, and assigns 20% to the remaining scenarios. Is Capital IQ's Reasonable? Is Capital IQ's model reasonable? The answer is not as straight-forward as one may think. Obamacare itself does absolutely nothing to reduce costs, but costs may drop anyway. I expect healthcare and education costs to drop simply because the current exponential paths are not sustainable. Cause and Effect More importantly, costs may drop simply because businesses do exactly what Capital IQ assumes! A couple of readers picked up on that possibility in comments to my previous report. For example, reader Michael states "Having individuals responsible for their own health insurance is the best thing that could happen to US healthcare." In regards to employer provided healthcare, reader Kevin surmised "Employers never should have been providing such benefits in the first place." Reader Jon noted "My insurance company was billed $22,000 for hernia surgery. The entire pre-surgery, surgery, and post time was about two hours." The outlandish cost mentioned by Jon is exactly what happens when someone else picks up the tab and there are no incentives to reduce cost anywhere in the system. Here is another example: Those in no-deductible or low-deductible plans (frequently union mandated) plans have their costs assumed by taxpayers. Common sense explains what happens. Wildcards There are other influences to consider. For example, will Walmart or other low-cost companies create more competition? I hope so and expect so. If much-maligned Walmart opened up clinics and entered the business, we could see costs drop in a hurry. What Happens Next? We do not yet know the end result. If the shift away from employer-provided healthcare occurs (and I believe it will happen), will individuals be responsible to contain costs (and thus demand better care for less), or will Obamacare pick up the tab? If the latter, healthcare costs could soar making the projected savings greater. If the former, it may appear the savings were less. However, the reality may be costs are less precisely because companies no longer are willing to foot the bill! Free market competition is always a good thing. So is individual responsibility. Fantasy Scenario Given government programs typically do the opposite of what is expected, there is a chance that the perverse effect of Obamacare is the exact opposite of what Obama intended: Companies dump healthcare, consumers become more cost-conscious because they have to, Walmart adds badly needed competition, and single-payer dies on the vine. I leave the odds of that happening up to reader fantasies. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 06 May 2014 01:07 PM PDT Looking for signs of fear? Finding any? VIX Volatility Index click on cart for sharper image Complacency (in purple) can last for long periods of time. Fear (in blue) tends to spike and subside. While the VIX is not at the historic lows seen in 2007, I rather doubt it gets there. If it does, new market highs are likely. Compare fear (as measured by the VIX) with the chart of the S&P 500 below. Buy the dip mentality is entrenched. There is no fear. Should there be at these prices? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 06 May 2014 11:22 AM PDT Companies did not always provide healthcare benefits. But over time, employer-provided healthcare became an expectation, if not a "right". That trend, especially with part-time workers has reversed. Some argue that by 2020, healthcare coverage may go full circle. For example, please consider the McClatchy article Report: large employers could shift nearly all workers' health coverage to marketplace by 2020 A new investor report predicts that Standard & Poor's 500 companies could shift 90 percent of their workforce from job-based health coverage to individual insurance sold on the nation's marketplaces by 2020.Here are references to the report, none of which contains a link to the report.
The articles essentially read the same. It's as if someone published the story and everyone copied it, referring to "the report". Advisory had additional comments supporting and in disagreement with the report... S&P Capital IQ Managing Director Michael Thompson says, "We still expect some companies to hold on to their health care plans. ... But we think that the tax incentives for employer-driven insurance are not enough to offset the incentives for companies to transition people over to exchanges and have them be more autonomous around management of their own health care."Report Believable? Is the report believable? I think so, but I would prefer to read the entire study. If I can get a copy with permission to list it or excerpt it, I will do so. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Annexation by Force; Three-Part Reality; Actions vs. Words; Paper Legalities Posted: 05 May 2014 11:30 PM PDT In response to Misrepresenting the Libertarian Position on Putin and the annexation of Crimea by Russia a close friend responded ... The reality is that the international community overwhelming does not recognize the annexation. Annexation by force is no longer how the world does business and that is what is at stake here. That is why it cannot be allowed to stand. As Radek Sikorski the Foreign Minister of Poland, whose country was also ripped apart and partially annexed by Russia before World War II said, "Do not underestimate our determination not to return to the politics of the 20th Century." Three-Part Reality Here is the three part reality.
Reflections on World Opinion Recall that world opinion once said the earth was flat. Was it? The US had no legitimate business in Vietnam or Iraq. The citizens of those countries did not want us there. World opinion (supportive at the time) did not make either invasion just. Polls today would likely show completely different results on the wisdom of those wars. Personally, I do not care what world opinion is on Crimea. Nor did I care when majority opinion found it acceptable for the US to be in Vietnam or for the US to invade Iraq. I do care about the opinions of people who live in Crimea. Overwhelmingly, Crimeans want to be part of Russia. Question: Who the hell is the world, the UN, or anyone else to tell people living in Crimea any different? Answer: Not only is it is the height of arrogance to force a different viewpoint on Crimeans, it also risks WW III to impose that arrogance. Nonetheless, my friend (let's call him F1) says the annexation "cannot be allowed to stand". Really?! As long as we are discussing world opinions, let's consider the opinion of US citizens. CBS news reports Most Say U.S. Doesn't Have a Responsibility in Ukraine. "A majority of 61 percent of Americans do not think the U.S. has a responsibility to do something about the situation between Russia and Ukraine, nearly twice as many as the 32 percent who think it does. There is widespread bipartisan agreement on this." Do opinions matter or don't they? Tellingly, opinions only seem to matter when one agrees with them! Paper Legalities I have another friend (F2) who also disagrees with my overall point of view on Ukraine. F2 is a lawyer who wants to remain anonymous. F1, F2, and I all communicate daily. We see each other's responses. F2 commented on F1's "paper thin distinctions". F2 also stated "There is no consistent legal principle that drives these events. It's always power. Eventually the international community recognizes reality. The international community's quasi/legal acts don't create reality." On that, I am in complete agreement. In time, probably quickly (unless a major war breaks our), the international community will recognize Crimea is part of Russia. F1 responded "I am feeling pretty good about my position. The world isn't talking about sanctions, and bolstering NATO'S eastern defenses because they see paper thin distinctions." Will world opinion and recognition that Crimea is part of Russia change F1's mind? Time will tell. Outrage Over Odessa Reader Rich pinged me with his thoughts on Odessa and media bias. Hello MishQuestion: Where is the unbiased reporting and analyses by Western mainstream media? Answer: Generally "nonexistent". And those of us who present a different point of view are accused of being pro-Russia, unpatriotic, or traitors. I have several emails from people who hope I am tortured to death for my opinions. Actions vs. Words Finally, let's consider the opinion of another close friend of mine, Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog. Via email, also in response to Misrepresenting the Libertarian Position on Putin, Pater writes ... Very well said!Enforcing Paper Legalities If Putin did what he said, and the US acted in accordance with its own constitution, the world would be far better off. In terms of significance, the latter is far more important. Obama, Bush, and numerous presidents before them, all did what they wanted, not what was in accordance with the constitution. When we go to enforce "paper legalities" the world over, we would be wise to act in accordance with our own paper first. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Damn Cool Pics
Damn Cool Pics |
- What It's Really Like To Meet Avril Lavigne
- The Force Is with These Sizzling Star Wars Girls
- People and Their Cars [Infographic]
What It's Really Like To Meet Avril Lavigne Posted: 06 May 2014 12:11 PM PDT Most famous musicians are usually pretty friendly with their fans. They understand that the fans made their careers so they want to give back. Not Avril Lavigne. See the difference between how Lady Gaga and Kelly Clarkson treat their fans and how Avril's fans get treated. Lady Gaga Kelly Clarkson Avril Lavigne is not really that friendly with her fans and in Brazil, despite the fans paying $400 to attend a meet and greet with the pop star, security told them not to touch or hug her. More pics with fans |
The Force Is with These Sizzling Star Wars Girls Posted: 06 May 2014 10:18 AM PDT |
People and Their Cars [Infographic] Posted: 06 May 2014 09:10 AM PDT Over the past century, cars have emerged as a very popular pastime, in addition to their purpose of getting from point A to point B. Somewhat naturally, since people invest so much of their money and time in cars, car owners develop an attachment to their vehicles, going so far as to even name them. The relationship between a car and a car owner is interesting in many ways: 4 out of 10 Americans claim their car has a unique personality. Many of them even consider their car as part of their family. To the most extreme, there are even hundreds of people who allege to have a romantic relationship with their car. People spend an average of 600 hours per year in their car. Even though 38 hours of that time is spent stuck in traffic, the ones in love with their vehicles likely do not mind, even if that time in traffic costs an extra $818 in gas each year. In 2009, Americans spent $164 billion on car parts and services, a whopping 14.5% of their total spending. Check out the rest of the People and Their Cars Infographic below to learn more about the ways we interact with our vehicles: Click on Image to Enlarge. This graphic was created by CJ Pony Parts |
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