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luni, 30 iunie 2014

Watch: "You're the Reason I Ran for Office"

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Watch: "You're the Reason I Ran for Office"

Last week's edition of West Wing Week took us to Guatemala with the Vice President, to our nation's capital for the first-ever White House Summit on Working Families, and along for the ride as a woman who wrote the President gets a reply... in person.

See what else happened last week at the White House in the latest West Wing Week.

Setting Up 4 Key Customer Loyalty Metrics in Google Analytics

Posted: 29 Jun 2014 05:15 PM PDT

Posted by Tom.Capper

Customer loyalty is one of the strongest assets a business can have, and one that any can aim to improve. However, improvement requires iteration and testing, and iteration and testing require measurement.

Traditionally, customer loyalty has been measured using customer surveys. The Net Promoter Score, for example, is based on the question (on a scale of one to ten) "How likely is it that you would recommend our company/product/service to a friend or colleague?". Regularly monitoring metrics like this with any accuracy is going to get expensive (and/or annoying to customers), and is never going to be hugely meaningful, as advocacy is only one dimension of customer loyalty. Even with a wider range of questions, there's also some risk that you end up tracking what your customers claim about their loyalty rather than their actual loyalty, although you might expect the two to be strongly correlated.

Common mistakes

Google Analytics and other similar platforms collect data that could give you more meaningful metrics for free. However, they don't always make them completely obvious - before writing this post, I checked to be sure there weren't any very similar ones already published, and I found some fairly dubious reoccurring recommendations. The most common of these was using % of return visitors as a sole or primary metric for customer loyalty. If the percentage of visitors to your site who are return visitors drops, there are plenty of reasons that could be behind that besides a drop in loyalty—a large number of new visitors from a successful marketing campaign, for example. Similarly, if the absolute number of return visitors rises, this could be as easily caused by an increase in general traffic levels as by an increase in the loyalty of existing customers.

Visitor frequency is another easily misinterpreted metric; infrequent visits do not always indicate a lack of loyalty. If you were a loyal Mercedes customer, and never bought any car that wasn't a new Mercedes, you wouldn't necessarily visit their website on a weekly basis, and someone who did wouldn't necessarily be a more loyal customer than you.

The metrics

Rather than starting with the metrics Google Analytics shows us and deciding what they mean about customer loyalty (or anything else), a better approach is to decide what metrics you want, then deciding how you can replicate them in Google Analytics.

To measure the various dimensions of (online) customer loyalty well, I felt the following metrics would make the most sense:

Proportion of visitors who want to hear more
Proportion of visitors who advocate
Proportion of visitors who return
Proportion of macro-converters who convert again

Note that a couple of these may not be what they initially seem. If your registration process contains an awkwardly worded checkbox for email signup, for example, it's not a good measure of whether people want to hear more. Secondly, "proportion of visitors who return" is not the same as "proportion of visitors who are return visitors."

1. Proportion of visitors who want to hear more

This is probably the simplest of the above metrics, especially if you're already tracking newsletter signups as a micro-conversion. If you're not, you probably should be, so see Google's guidelines for event tracking using the analytics.js tracking snippet or Google Tag Manager, and set your new event as a goal in Google Analytics.

2. Proportion of visitors who advocate

It's never possible to track every public or private recommendation, but there are two main ways that customer advocacy can be measured in Google Analytics: social referrals and social interactions. Social referrals may be polluted as a customer loyalty metric by existing campaigns, but these can be segmented out if properly tracked, leaving the social acquisition channel measuring only organic referrals.

Social interactions can also be tracked in Google Analytics, although surprisingly, with the exception of Google+, tracking them does require additional code on your site. Again, this is probably worth tracking anyway, so if you aren't already doing so, see Google's guidelines for analytics.js tracking snippets, or this excellent post for Google Tag Manager analytics implementations.

3. Proportion of visitors who return

As mentioned above, this isn't the same as the proportion of visitors who are return visitors. Fortunately, Google Analytics does give us a feature to measure this.

Even though date of first session isn't available as a dimension in reports, it can be used as a criteria for custom segments. This allows us to start building a data set for how many visitors who made their first visit in a given period have returned since.

There are a couple of caveats. First, we need to pick a sensible time period based on our frequency and recency data. Second, this data obviously takes a while to produce; I can't tell how many of this month's new visitors will make further visits at some point in the future.

In Distilled's case, I chose 3 months as a sensible period within which I would expect the vast majority of loyal customers to visit the site at least once. Unfortunately, due to the 90-day limit on time periods for this segment, this required adding together the totals for two shorter periods. I was then able to compare the number of new visitors in each month with how many of those new visitors showed up again in the subsequent 3 months:

As ever with data analysis, the headline figure doesn't tell the story. Instead, it's something we should seek to explain. Looking at the above graph, it would be easy to conclude "Distilled's customer loyalty has bombed recently; they suck." However, the fluctuation in the above graph is mostly due to the enormous amount of organic traffic that's been generated by Hannah's excellent blog post 4 Types of Content Every Site Needs.

Although many new visitors who discovered the Distilled site through this blog post have returned since, the return rate is unsurprisingly lower than some of the most business-orientated pages on the site. This isn't a bad thing—it's what you'd expect from top-of-funnel content like blog posts—but it's a good example of why it's worth keeping an eye out for this sort of thing if you want to analyse these metrics. If I wanted to dig a little deeper, I might start by segmenting this data to get a more controlled view of how new visitors are reacting to Distilled's site over time.

4. Proportion of macro-converters who convert again

While a standard Google Analytics implementation does allow you to view how many users have made multiple purchases, it doesn't allow you to see how these fell across their sessions. Similarly, if you can see how many users have had two sessions and two goal conversions, but you can't see whether those conversions were in different visits, it's entirely possible that some had one accidental visit that bounced, and one visit with two different conversions (note that you cannot perform the same conversion twice in one session).

It would be possible to create custom dimensions for first (and/or second, third, etc.) purchase dates using internal data, but this is a complex and site-specific implementation. Unfortunately, for the time being, I know of no good way of documenting user conversion patterns over multiple sessions using only Google Analytics, despite the fact that it collects all the data required to do this.

Contribute

These are only my favourite customer loyalty metrics. If you have any that you're already tracking or are unsure how to track, please explain in the comments below.

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Seth's Blog : The children's menu

The children's menu

"Here, eat this food you've eaten a hundred times before. These chicken fingers and french fries are just like what we have at home. And turn on your iPad and watch that movie you like so much..."

Of course, chicken fingers are just a symptom. If we want to insulate ourselves from new experiences, ensure that we never eat something we don't like, never engage with someone we disagree with, never have to hold two opposing ideas in our head at the same time—chicken fingers are a great way to start.

The new is a habit. It's a habit we can teach to our kids and it's a habit we can learn ourselves.

Spend a few hours thinking and walking in that local park you've never visited. Go visit an online forum where you disagree with the worldview of those hanging out—but instead of arguing, listen. Play some opera while you're chilling out at home tonight. Trying eating vegan for three days...

The children's menu is always available, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea.

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duminică, 29 iunie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

How Much Gold Should Someone Own? Where and How To Own It?
What Would be the Effect of a Substantial Hike in the Minimum Wage?
Meet "Ray" Your Valet Parking Robot

How Much Gold Should Someone Own? Where and How To Own It?

Posted: 29 Jun 2014 10:48 PM PDT

Periodically I receive questions on gold ownership. How much should one own, and where?

Let's start with the first question:

How Much Gold Should Someone Own?

There is no fixed answer, but rather a general methodology that I like:

Do not invest outside your comfort zone.
Think in terms of percentages, not fixed amounts.
For some, 10% is too much, for others 30% is too little.
Some do not trust anything else and are willing to hold a huge percentage of their assets in gold
If a 30% decline in value would give you sleepless nights, then whatever percentage you have is too much.
If you dislike investments that do not yield a dividend, then gold probably should not be a significant portion of your portfolio.
Even if you dislike investments that do not pay a dividend, it may be wise to consider putting 5% of your assets in gold to protect against a crisis.

For those who understand the reasons to own gold and will not panic over fluctuations, in my assessment, 20% is a reasonable starting point.

Finally, for those with a lot of credit card debt or other high interest debt, I suggest paying off all that debt before making any investments.

As to the second question:

How To Own It?

There are numerous choices.

Gold Miners
Physical Gold
Gold ETFs
Gold Funds

Gold miners are a leveraged play, and in the case of junior miners, a speculative play on gold. The bulk of one's gold assets should not be in this class.

Physical gold, ETFs, and Funds can overlap in various ways.

Gold mutual funds are generally plays on miners but some may also contain physical gold.
ETFs may be plays on miners or plays on physical gold.
ETFs may or may not contain audited gold.
ETFs may or may not allow delivery of physical gold.
Physical gold can be in your possession in the form of gold, bullion, or coins.
Physical gold may be in external storage in the form of gold, bullion, or coins.
External storage may be in in your country or in a foreign location.

Some want gold in their possession. I hold none of mine that way. I prefer audited gold, in vaults, spread around for safety. I also prefer bars or bullion over coins that have a higher markup.

For others, seeing is believing.

For those who don't trust governments as well as those who live in unstable countries, holding gold outside the country they live in is a good idea.

Remember, if you do choose physical possession, you will need theft insurance or some other means of ensuring its safety. And if you have lots of physical gold, it's best not to tell anyone (for obvious reasons).

OUNZ Recommendation

Among the ETF choices, I highly recommend that investors consider the Merk GOLD TRUST, the deliverable GOLD ETF (OUNZ).

The Merk Gold Trust (the "Trust" or "OUNZ") provides investors with a convenient and cost-efficient way to buy and hold gold through an exchange traded product with the option to take physical delivery of gold.

The Trust's primary objective is to provide investors with an opportunity to invest in gold through the shares and be able to take delivery of physical gold bullion (physical gold) in exchange for their shares. The Trust's secondary objective is for the shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold less the expenses of the Trust's operations.

OUNZ may be a great choice for those ...

Who do not like dealing with wire transfers to buy or sell gold.
Who buy small quantities.
Who want to take physical delivery in the form of coins.
Who want an easy to understand ETF that contains audited gold.

Interested parties should download the Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ) Prospectus.

OUNZ is simply what it says it is: an investment in gold. You can buy/hold/sell on the NYSE, or you can take delivery of your gold. Its expense ratio is low (0.40%) and a share of OUNZ is approximately equal to 1/100 of a Fine Ounce of gold.

Taking possession in OUNZ does not trigger a tax event as you are simply taking possession of what you already own.

Unlike OUNZ, the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is a Canadian closed-end mutual fund that may trade above or below NAV.

Moreover, investors in PHYS may have to pay taxes when taking delivery; The prospectus states: "If any holder redeems his, her or its units for physical gold bullion …, the Trust will be treated as if it sold physical gold bullion for its fair market value in order to redeem the holder's units."

GoldMoney

Most readers know I have a relationship with GoldMoney and I still recommend that option as well. It is a great way to own gold.

GoldMoney contains audited, physical gold, in vaults in various countries. You can select the vault if you wish.

However, GoldMoney does require dealing with wire transfers, which adds expenses when dealing with small amounts. Some may dislike the paperwork when opening an account.

Other Options

There are numerous ways to invest in gold. I mentioned two that I specifically like and the reasons I like them. Other choices may or may not be for you, based on your individual needs and preferences.

There is no absolute right or wrong, just a set of choices, some better than others.

Disclosure

I have a relationship with Merk as well as Goldmoney. I choose my relationships carefully. However, you still need to conduct your own due diligence.

Disclaimer

The material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Before investing you should carefully consider the Merk Gold Trust's ("Trust") investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The Trust is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for the purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trust are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. Because shares of the Trust are intended to reflect the price of the gold held in the Trust, the market price of the shares is subject to fluctuations similar to those affecting gold prices. Additionally, shares of the Trust are bought and sold at market price, not at net asset value ("NAV"). Brokerage commissions will reduce returns.

The request for redemption of shares for gold is subject to a number of risks including but not limited to the potential for the price of gold to decline during the time between the submission of the request and delivery. Delivery may take a considerable amount of time depending on your location.

Commodities and commodity-index linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market movements and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes or political and regulatory developments, as well as trading activity of speculators and arbitrageurs in the underlying commodities.

Trust shares trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. The value of Trust shares relates directly to the value of the gold held by the Trust (less its expenses) and fluctuations in the price of gold could materially and adversely affect an investment in the shares. The price received upon the sale of the shares, which trade at market price, may be more or less than the value of the gold represented by them. The Trust does not generate any income and as the Trust regularly issues shares to pay for the Sponsor's ongoing expenses, the amount of gold represented by each Share will decline over time. Investing involves risk and you could lose money on an investment in the Trust. For a more complete discussion of the risk factors relative to the Trust, carefully read the prospectus.

The sponsor of the Trust is Merk Investments LLC (the "Sponsor"). Foreside Fund Services, LLC, provides marketing services to the Trust.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

What Would be the Effect of a Substantial Hike in the Minimum Wage?

Posted: 29 Jun 2014 07:36 PM PDT

In response to 100% of U.S. Employment Growth Since 2000 Went to Immigrants, reader Mike wonders what effect a rise in minimum wage would have.

Mike Writes ...

Hi Mish.

Thanks for a very interesting post. I hope the mainstream media will pick up on this.

Here's a question for you: Do you think a rise in the minimum wage would bring more citizens into the workforce and and reduce the welfare rolls?

By the way, I am against laws that restrict the free will of consenting adults, employers and employees alike. But I am curious about the results of a substantial hike in the minimum wage.

Best,
Mike

Predicting the Results

It is not easy to predict the precise results. People on both sides of the debate cite studies that purportedly support their point of view.

Nonetheless we can say certain things, even if we do not know the final result.

A hike in the minimum wage would:

Encourage more people to seek work whether there is work or not. Thus, the participation rate would rise putting upward pressure on the unemployment rate.
Encourage businesses to outsource or seek other means of reducing head count such as employing software or hardware robots.
Encourage more immigration if businesses cannot find ways to reduce headcount.
Ultimately, businesses would have to hike prices, accept lower profit margins, or find other ways to reduce costs.
If businesses chose to hike prices it would put upward pressure on price inflation. In turn, unions would demand still more wage hikes.
If businesses chose to eat the costs, it would put negative pressures on the stock market.

With so many possibilities, some of them conflicting, it is impossible to predict the precise results. Regardless, interference in the free market is not a good thing. Thus, the overall result of a hike in minimum wage must be negative, regardless of what minimum wage advocates suggest.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Meet "Ray" Your Valet Parking Robot

Posted: 29 Jun 2014 11:16 AM PDT

US News has an interesting article on using robots to park cars at an airport in Duesseldorf, Germany.

You can schedule an appointment with "Ray", your parking robot, via smartphone or simply by leaving your car in a designated spot.

"Ray" Your Parking Robot

AP Photo/dpa, Federico Gambarini

US News comments on the "Uncanny Valet"

Ray can carry any standard car weighing up to 3 metric tons (3.31 tons)
249 parking spaces are reserved for robots
The service costs 29 euros a day and targets business travelers but is open to anyone

Ray's forklift method (with the car turned off) circumvents the need for an exchange of keys with a human attendant. I suspect this will quickly catch on at any airport or auto garage offering valet parking.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : References available upon request

References available upon request

(and other things to leave off your resume)

Resumes are overrated.

Of course your references are available upon request. What are you going to do, refuse?

If your references are amazing, don't offer them on request, include them. If they're not stellar, do better work and get some stellar references. Give me names and phone numbers and actual testimonies.

And that objective line? Objectives are a relatively new addition to resumes. Their original purpose was to show a big company that you had aspirations to move up the corporate ladder (their corporate ladder) in a specific direction. For a few isolated careers, this made sense.

But now, the objective line is either used as a narcissistic caption about what's in it for you (not me) to hire you ("to learn about what you do so I can quit and go do it somewhere else soon") or, far more common, as an exercise in say-nothing doublespeak that can best be summarized as blah, blah, blah.

Starting your resume with blah and ending with an obvious bit of boilerplate does no one any good.

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sâmbătă, 28 iunie 2014

Focusing on the Economic Priorities for the Middle Class Nationwide

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Weekly Address: Focusing on the Economic Priorities for the Middle Class Nationwide

The President will keep fighting his economic priorities in the weeks and months ahead, because he knows the best way to expand opportunity for all hardworking Americans and continue to strengthen the economy is to grow it from the middle out.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Seth's Blog : "How was your bike ride?"

"How was your bike ride?"

The answer has evolved over the last century...

It was great, I pushed myself and feel fabulous.

It was okay, I came in fourth place in the race, but those other guys beat me again.

I did fine. My speed was 15.6 miles per hour, not my best average.

Well, the computer says it was a personal best, and my heartrate approached max on the third hill.

The app says that I did that route the 159th best of everyone who has ever done it. A bust...

More information doesn't always make us happier. At some point, improvement turns into a game, something to be won or lost, completely losing the point of the project we set out to do.

It's no wonder that after a certain point, increased income doesn't usually lead to more happiness. If income becomes a game, not a means to an end, then people will distort their goals and choices in order to win. They'll cut corners, maybe even do things they're not particularly proud of, all because our culture has created a huge scoreboard, updated hourly.

The same thing is true with the quest to win the sports trophy at all costs, or to measure your office in square inches and compare it to the next guy's...

"How big was your bonus," is not the same question as, "how happy are you?" or even, "do you feel good about making a difference..."

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luni, 30 iunie 2014

Watch: "You're the Reason I Ran for Office"

Setting Up 4 Key Customer Loyalty Metrics in Google Analytics