Central Perk

sâmbătă, 13 septembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

China Industrial Growth Slows, Power Generation Negative 1st Time in 4 Years; Stimulate Now, Crash Later

Posted: 13 Sep 2014 10:46 AM PDT

Cries for more stimulus ring loudly in China because Chinese industrial output slowed to 6.9%. That is a number that any country in the world would be more than pleased with, but China's target is 7.5%.

Why 7.5%? In fact, why should there be any targets at all? The economy is not a car that can be steered by bureaucrats to perfection.

Nonetheless, Calls Grow for More Stimulus, as China August Factory Growth Slows to Near Six-Year Low.

China's factory output grew at the weakest pace in nearly six years in August while growth in other key sectors also cooled, raising fears the world's second-largest economy may be at risk of a sharp slowdown unless Beijing takes fresh stimulus measures.

Industrial output rose 6.9 percent in August from a year earlier - the lowest since 2008 when the economy was buffeted by the global financial crisis - compared with expectations for 8.8 percent and slowing sharply from 9.0 percent in July.

"The August data may point to a hard landing. The extent of the growth slowdown in the third quarter won't be small," said Xu Gao, chief economist at Everbright Securities in Beijing.

Some analysts believe annual economic growth may be sliding towards 7 percent in the third quarter, putting the government's full-year target of around 7.5 percent in jeopardy unless it takes more aggressive action. Experts reckon output growth of around 9 percent would be needed to attain such a goal.

Reinforcing the tepid economic activity, China's power generation declined for the first time in four years, falling 2.2 percent in August from a year earlier, and pointing to slackening demand from major industrial users.

Jiang Yuan, a senior statistician with the bureau, said the dip in August factory growth was due to weak global demand, especially from emerging markets, and the slowdown in the property sector that hit demand for steel, cement and vehicles.

The last time China suffered a "hard landing" was during the height of the global crisis, when economic growth tumbled to 6.6 percent in early 2009. That is far short of the near collapses which loomed over some developed economies, but still threw tens of millions of Chinese out of work, alarming the Communist Party's stability-obsessed leaders into action.

China's Economic Numbers

Industrial Output: +6.9%
Power Generation: -2.2%
Retail Sales: +11.9%
Fixed Asset Investment: +16.9%
Mortgages issuance: -4.5%

End of the Line for China's Growth

That set of numbers should raise concerns about overheating, not worries over economic slowdowns.

Yet, "The government must take forceful policy measures to stabilize growth," said Li Huiyong, an analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities in Shanghai.

It's time to be realistic. China cannot and will not grow at 7% forever.

Stimulate Now, Crash Later

Calls for more stimulus with the above set of numbers is beyond ridiculous given China's vacant malls, massive pollution problems, unused rail lines, reckless investment in SOEs, and even entire vacant cities.

Malinvestment is already rampant. Additional stimulus now to meet arbitrary growth targets will cause a crash later. China will be lucky to average 2% growth for a decade. Outright contraction in some years is not out of the question.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Yes" Makes 100% Perfect Sense for Scotland; Too Close to Call; Strange Bedfellows

Posted: 13 Sep 2014 12:44 AM PDT

Scotland Vote Too Close to Call

Here's some good news for those rooting for Scottish independence:

In spite of a massive fearmongering campaign by both Labour and Tories in the UK, Scots Independence Race Tightens Six Days Before Ballot.

Scotland's nationalists drew closer to the Better Together campaign in the latest poll on independence before the referendum, making the run-in to the Sept. 18 vote too close to call.

The poll of 1,000 people for the Guardian newspaper yesterday put support for "yes" on 49 percent and "no" on 51 percent after excluding undecided voters. It is the fourth poll in a week to put the "yes" side within the 3 percent error margin of victory. Only one of those has had the pro-independence side ahead.

Women vs Men

Women backed staying in the U.K. by 55 percent to 45 percent, while men favored independence by 52 percent to 48 percent.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc was among lenders to announce contingency plans this week to move some operations out of Scotland in the event of a "yes" vote. Salmond demanded a probe into the disclosure, first reported by the BBC citing a Treasury source, accusing the government of deliberate "scaremongering" by briefing sensitive information before the referendum.

Utter Nonsense

Business leader, Tim Martin, the chairman of pub chain JD Wetherspoon Plc (JDW), was dismissive of warnings from businesses about the costs of independence. "Most of what has been said has been utter nonsense," he told BBC Radio.

"New Zealand has got a similar population to Scotland, its own currency and it does tremendously well; Singapore -- fantastic economy, only 2 or 3 million people; Switzerland does very well," he said. "There's obviously no reason why Scotland can't have its own government if that's what the Scots want."

"Scotland Better Off On Its Own

In response to RBS, 4 Other Banks Warn of Relocation to England if Scots Vote Yes; Catalans Stage Mass Protest for Independence Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with this pertinent comment:

"Scotland will be better off on its own. It matters not one whit where these companies are headquartered. In fact, an independent Scotland would be able to introduce a regulatory and tax regime that makes it irresistible to foreign companies."

Bingo!

The EU is concerned that Scotland may lower corporate taxes and pull business from elsewhere.
Labour is concerned about the loss of Labour votes in the UK parliament.
Spain and the EU are concerned that a Scotland "yes" vote for independence will cause Catalans to do the same.
Cameron is worried that he may actually have to put a British EU exit to vote if "Yes" passes.

Strange Bedfellows

Politics makes strange bedfellows and the above four points show why.

"Yes" Makes 100% Perfect Sense for Scotland

Scotland has far better opportunities on its own. Any loss in business of financial industries could easily be regained elsewhere.

The only caveat is that Scotland would have to implement tax reforms to make that happen.

Regardless, the success or failure of independence would be up to the Scots. Yet, compared to being slaves to Britain, that is the better choice by far.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

20 years ago today:

Twenty years ago today, the Violence Against Women Act was signed into law. It remains my proudest legislative achievement -- but it didn't happen because of me.

It happened because, at a time when kicking a woman in the stomach or pushing her down the stairs was not taken seriously as a crime -- and at a time when domestic violence against women was considered a "family affair" -- something remarkable happened.

Incredibly brave and courageous women began speaking up.

Women like Marla, a model whose face was slashed by two men because she'd refused her landlord's entrees, and who was questioned for 20 minutes during the trial about why she was wearing a miniskirt. As if she had asked for or welcomed this repugnant act of violence. Marla spoke out.

Women like Christine, who was raped in a dorm room by a friend's boyfriend. Christine said she hadn't even known she'd been raped, because she'd known the man. But Christine added her voice.

There were so many more. Women who had their arms broken with hammers and heads beaten with pipes, who were among the 21,000 women who were assaulted, raped, and murdered in a single week in America at the time.

All of these women are victims. But they're also survivors.

And because they spoke up, the conversation changed and a national consensus formed to do something to protect them. Their stories -- experiences shared by millions more women -- put this issue front and center before the American people. The country was forced to see the rawest form of violence and acknowledge the culture that hid it. And they began to demand change as a result. Local coalitions of shelters and rape centers led the way. National women's groups and civil rights organizations got on board. And a bipartisan group in Congress got the bill to President Clinton's desk.

That's how we got this law enacted.

And with each reauthorization, we added more protections. In 2000, we included a definition of dating violence. In 2005, we invested in health providers to screen patients for domestic violence and associated long-term psychological and physical health. And in 2013, we made VAWA services available to LGBT Americans and restored authority for tribes to prosecute non-Indian offenders. As a result, over the years, we've seen domestic violence rates drop significantly, fundamental reforms of state laws, and higher rates of convictions for special-victims units.

But we know our work here is never done. This past week, I announced that we'll bring together legal experts, scholars, and advocates to convene a White House Summit on Civil Rights and Equal Protection for Women because we know bias against victims of rape and sexual assault still exist in our criminal justice system -- and we must make clear every victim has a basic civil right to equal protection under the law.

And if you need information and resources about how to respond and prevent sexual assault in our schools and on our college campuses, you can visit NotAlone.gov.

And if, God forbid, you're experiencing this sort of violence or know someone who is, you can get help. You can do it right now. There is a network of passionate and dedicated folks all across the country who are ready to listen. It's anonymous, and it's safe. In fact, VAWA created the National Domestic Violence Hotline, which you can visit here,* or dial 1-800-799-SAFE (7233) right now for help and advice.

Twenty years after the Violence Against Women Act was enacted, I remain hopeful as ever that the decency of the American people will keep us moving forward.

They understand that the true character of our country is measured when violence against women is no longer accepted as society's secret, and where we all understand that even one case is too many.

Thank you,

Vice President Joe Biden

*This email includes a link to non-governmental organizations, websites, and other resources. These resources are not operated by the federal government.

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com.
Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy
Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Weekly Address: We Will Degrade and Destroy ISIL

Featured

Weekly Address: We Will Degrade and Destroy ISIL

In this week's address, the President reiterated his comprehensive and sustained counter-terrorism strategy to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group ISIL.

His plan brings together a campaign of targeted airstrikes, increased support for Iraqi and Kurdish forces already taking on terrorists, assistance from allies and partners, expanded efforts to train and equip the Syrian opposition, and ongoing humanitarian aid for those displaced by ISIL. The President expressed his immense appreciation for the military men and women who make these efforts possible, and reminded the world that America continues to lead and stand strong against terror.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Seth's Blog : Law and order

Law and order

At some point, the world (the project, the moment) becomes so chaotic or dangerous that we sacrifice law in exchange for order.

The question is: when.

When is it time to declare martial law? (or your version of it)

When do you abandon your project plan because the boss is hysterical? When do you go off the long-term, drip-by-drip approach to growth because cash flow is tight? When do you suspend one set of valued principles in order to preserve the thing you set out to build in the first place?

When Richard Nixon was at his most megalomaniacal, he was willing to suspend any law in his way to preserve what he saw as order. Failed entrepreneurs and project leaders fall into the same trap: it feels as though this time, it truly is the end of the road, and throwing away principles is tempting indeed.

You've probably met people who declare this sort of emergency ten times a year.

History is filled with examples of people who pushed the order button too soon... but few instances where people stuck with their principles for too long.