Central Perk

sâmbătă, 27 septembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Sick Man of Europe is Europe; Blame the Socialists, Progressives, Greens, and the Euro Itself

Posted: 27 Sep 2014 05:48 PM PDT

Joel Kotkin writing for New Geography hits the nail smack on the head with his assessment Sick Man of Europe is Europe.

Throughout the continent, public support for a united Europe fell sharply last year. Opposition to greater integration has emerged, with anti-EU parties gaining support in countries as diverse as the United Kingdom, Greece, Germany and France.

The new reality is epitomized by France's ascendant far-right political figure, Marine Le Pen, who is now leading in many polls to win the next presidential election.

These attitudes suggest that the EU could be devolving from a nascent super-state to something that increasingly resembles the Holy Roman Empire, a fragmented landscape of small, unimportant states wrapped in a unitary, but ephemeral crepe. This challenges the view of some Americans, particularly but not only on the left, who see Europe as a role model for the U.S.

Some pundits, such as Paul Krugman, routinely describe Europe's approach to economic, environment and social policy as more enlightened than America's. Wherever possible, progressives push for European-style action in areas such as curbing carbon emissions and rapidly converting to "green" energy.

Several years ago Germany and the Netherlands were exemplars as opposed to the much-disdained PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain). But German growth rates have plummeted, going negative in the last quarter, along with France and Italy. More stagnation is likely as energy costs surge and key export markets, notably in Russia and China, begin to contract. Today, the "sick man" of Europe is not any one country, or collection of countries; the "sick man of Europe" is Europe.

Europe's poor economy stems in large part from policy. The strong welfare state so admired by progressives here has also made Europe a very expensive place to do business. High taxes and welfare costs, long tolerable in an efficient economy like Germany, have a way of catching up with companies and countries. This has been particularly notable after the financial crisis; since 2008 the unemployment rate has shot up 5 percentage points while dropping steadily in the Untied States.

All this suggests that Americans would do better than look to Europe for future solutions to our own problems. However attractive the European model may seem to our pundit class, the reality on the ground shows something more to be avoided than embraced.

Blame the Socialists, Progressives, Greens, and the Euro

The socialists ruined France and Italy. And the Euro which was supposed to be a uniter has been anything but.

There is more bickering than ever before on what constitutes sound fiscal policy. Germany wants one thing, France and Italy another. Some countries want something in between and others waver back and forth.

More importantly, what the people want, is not what the politicians want. The result has been the rise of Marine Le Pen in France, Beppe Grillo in Italy, and Golden Dawn in Greece. Unstable governments and alliances exist in several countries.

Energy costs have soared in Germany thanks to Green policies. German businesses pay twice as much for energy as US counterparts.

For example, a typical medium-sized German industrial company pays 9.14 euro cents per kilowatt hour compared with 4.82 cents/kWh in Texas, according to research carried out by Ecofys, a consultancy, and the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research.

The founders of the Euro project thought fiscal matters would unify over time. Instead, politics and policies diverged.

The fact remains: No currency union in history that did not also have a fiscal union has ever survived.

With horrendous demographics in most of Europe, impossible to untangle socialist promises in the "Club-Med" countries and France, and no hope for a sensible fiscal union, the situation is bleak.

My take: A Disruptive Eurozone Breakup Awaits.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Wasted Money: Delegation of Governors Make Surprise Trip to Afghanistan

Posted: 27 Sep 2014 11:23 AM PDT

Ways to waste money in Afghanistan are endless. Here's another case in point: Cuomo Makes Surprise Trip to Afghanistan.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York arrived in Afghanistan on Saturday as part of a delegation of governors and Defense Department officials to visit troops and receive briefings on counterterrorism and security issues, the governor's office said.

Also among the group were Gov. Bill Haslam of Tennessee, Gov. Jay Nixon of Missouri and Gov. Brian Sandoval of Nevada.

This is the second trip abroad for Mr. Cuomo in recent weeks. He traveled to Israel in August in what his office called an effort to show support for the country in its conflict with Hamas.

Are Missouri and Tennessee prime terrorist targets? Even if any of those states are terrorist targets, is there anything any of the governors can learn in Afghanistan that they cannot learn right here?

Of course not.

This is a political grandstanding stunt for all involved.

In the grand scheme of things, this trip wastes a trivial amount compared to the trillions of dollars we have already wasted.

Curiously, the boondoggle does have one useful aspect: It highlights the massive over-inflated egos of the three of them. Then again, we probably did not need to waste money to figure that out.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : None of this makes sense

None of this makes sense

Your own personal media company, the focus on building individual skills, the networks that we're all part of...

It makes no sense that we're busy spending our 'work' time weaving together audience, passion and new competencies.

Unless.

Unless we also acknowledge that the old method of productivity, of being a good employee by obediently doing what you are told, is obsolete.

Our job is to figure out what's next and to bring the ideas and resources to the table to make it happen. Otherwise, all of this (this blog, your online activity, the courses you take) is nothing but a worthless distraction.

We've created a huge web of inputs and levels and skills and distractions. It's thrilling to see people doing something with it. Go.

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 26 septembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Taliban Storm Afghanistan, Beheadings Galore

Posted: 26 Sep 2014 12:48 PM PDT

Having spent well over $3 trillion dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan what do we have to show for it?

Shias aligned with Iran rule Baghdad
ISIS took over parts of over Iraq
ISIS threatens to take over Syria
The average Pakistani hates the US for drone policy
Taliban threatens to take over Afghanistan

Taliban Storm Afghanistan

Please consider Taliban Storm Afghan District Southwest of Capital, 100 Killed

Hundreds of Taliban fighters have stormed a strategic district in an Afghan province southwest of the capital and are on the verge of capturing it after killing dozens of people and beheading some in days of fighting, officials said on Friday.

The Ghazni provincial government has lost contact with police in the province's western district of Ajrestan, said Asadullah Safi, deputy police chief of the area. An army unit reported that fighting was raging late on Friday afternoon, another provincial official said.

"If there is no urgent help from the central government, the district will collapse," Safi said earlier.

No longer pinned down by U.S. air cover, Taliban fighters are attacking Afghan military posts in large numbers with the aim of taking and holding ground.

The attack by an estimated 700 Taliban fighters began about five days ago and early reports were that more than 100 people had been killed, including 15 who were beheaded by the militants, said provincial deputy governor Ahmadullah Ahmadi.

"Without international support it will be hard to provide security ... The example of Ajrestan district shows that without international commitment of troops, it will be difficult to handle the Taliban."

War on Multiple Fronts

Every instance of US meddling has made matters worse. Tens of thousands of innocent civilians are dead and the economy of Iraq is destroyed.

Our policy is now so tangled we are bombing our friends and protecting those we seek to depose.

Can it get still more convoluted? Of course it can. Just add Israel, Pakistan, or Russia to the mix.

Perpetual war on multiple fronts simultaneously is the warmonger's ultimate wet dream. "Success" is nearly at hand.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

PIMCO About to Fire Gross for "Erratic Behavior"; Janus Picks up Gross, Shares Jump 40%

Posted: 26 Sep 2014 09:10 AM PDT

Global macro news this is not, but here's an interesting story.

Bond Guru and PIMCO co-founder Bill Gross Was Going to Be Fired for 'Erratic Behavior,' Says CNBC.

Barron's reports Gross Leaves Pimco for Janus; Knew He Was Being Shown the Door.

CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin said on air, the fund world was experiencing "shock and surprise" at Gross's move, which was highly unexpected to most.

Dow Jones is running headlines that "Gross's move pre-empted his dismissal," citing an unnamed source.

Sorkin's colleagues Jim Cramer and David Faber joked on the channel about how Gross will be giving up the trillions of fixed income investments he controlled at Pimco Total Return for a mere $12 billion or so invested by Janus in fixed income.

Sorkin reported that one factor may have been that Janus's CEO, Richard Weil, used to be COO of Pimco, and that he left on a not-so-happy note from Pimco, which may mean there's something personal for him in luring away Gross.

Gross is quoted as saying "I look forward to returning my full focus to the fixed income markets and investing, giving up many of the complexities that go with managing a large, complicated organization."

Janus Intraday

Shares of Janus (JNS) soared from 11 to as high as 15.58 on the announcement. That's a 41.68% move. How much of that gain holds remains to be seen. Janus is currently up about 31.50%.

Anyone pick up any cheap options yesterday?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

What Nationality Is Your Dog?
The World's Most Shocking Security Breaches [Infographic]
You'll Never Eat Sushi Again After You See
Bendgate: Bending iPhone 6 Plus
If You Do These Things You're Definitely A Jerk

What Nationality Is Your Dog?

Posted: 26 Sep 2014 04:39 PM PDT

Do you know what nationality your dog is? Are you unsure? These pictures should help you figure it out.

The World's Most Shocking Security Breaches [Infographic]

Posted: 26 Sep 2014 02:56 PM PDT

Everyone loves drama, stories and scandal – roll them into one and you have a nation captivated. The assignation of JFK, The murder of John Lennon, The great train robbery… and who can forget the horror of the Munich Massacre and the disbelief of the Twin Towers 9/11.

The World's Most Shocking Security Breaches infographic from 1st Ace Security grabs attention and has an emotional hook – good start.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

You'll Never Eat Sushi Again After You See

Posted: 26 Sep 2014 01:20 PM PDT

This poor Chinese man went to the wrong sushi bar ending up getting a tapeworm after eating his favorite snack. He went to his doctor with stomach ache and itchy skin, scans revealed his entire body had been infected with tapeworm. Doctors say this is due to the large amount of raw fish he had eaten. We're willing to bet he won't be eating sushi anytime soon.

Bendgate: Bending iPhone 6 Plus

Posted: 26 Sep 2014 01:00 PM PDT

Bending iPhone 6 Plus becomes is a new Internet meme called #Bendgate.

The iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus are without a doubt Apple's greatest smartphones to date, and with a thin profile of just 6.9 and 7.1mm, respectively, bringing these devices to life wasn't a walk in the park. And Apple's design and engineering team had to make use of very limited space to squeeze everything into one place, but that came with a trade-off, apparently, that might leave iPhone 6 Plus users thoroughly disgruntled.