Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 16 Oct 2014 08:50 PM PDT In the last three days, yield on the Greek 10-year government bond soared from 6.6% to over 9% before settling at 8.917%. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' Gambit Explodes Greek bonds yields had already been climbing with the rise of the radical left Syriza party in recent polls. Icing on the yield-cake was a seriously misguided election ploy by prime minister, Antonis Samaras that blew up in his face. Greece's beleaguered prime minister, Antonis Samaras, used a bold gambit last week to win a confidence vote and preserve a coalition government with sagging support: he promised lawmakers that the country would evict its bailout lenders by the end of the year.SYRIZA Widens Lead Over Samaras' New Democracy Recent polls shows SYRIZA Has Clear Lead Over New Democracy. A new GPO poll conducted for Mega TV gives SYRIZA a 6.5 percentage point lead over New Democracy.Snap Elections Likely Even though Greek voters do not want early elections, polls show that outcome is highly likely unless Antonis Samaras somehow hijacks the election or picks up a huge percentage of the undecided electorate. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
WalMart Margins Set to Plunge? Will Rest of Retail Follow? What About Jobs? Posted: 16 Oct 2014 08:21 AM PDT Retail sales reports on Wednesday have me thinking about the strength of the economy, commercial construction, jobs, and profit margins. Let's start with a look at retail sales. The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Retail Sales Falter Amid Signs of Global Slowdown. Similarly, Bloomberg reports Weaker Retail Sales Signal Smaller Spending Boost. Retail sales dropped more than forecast in September on a broad pullback in spending that indicates American consumers provided less of a boost for the economy in the third quarter.Slower Store Openings Reuters reports Wal-Mart to Slow Store Openings, Invest More in Ecommerce Wal-Mart Stores, the world's largest retailer, said on Wednesday it would open fewer stores in the U.S. in the next fiscal year and ramp up spending on e-commerce.Fewer Stores, Less Hiring Fewer stores means less construction and less hiring. The former is transitory, the latter more lasting. If this is the trend at Wal-Mart, can Target and other retailers be that far behind? If so, what does that say about trucking growth to stock the stores, and truckers eating at restaurants along the way? Of course, one also needs to consider the long-term growth aspects of trucking in general. With trucking in mind, please consider RoboTrucks from Mercedes-Benz to Hit US Highways Within 10 Years; Mish Supply Chain Proposal. Bleak Outlook for Sales and Profit Here's a story that really caught my eye: Wal-Mart offers bleaker outlook for sales and profit growth. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., facing a retail slump and a decline in traffic to big-box chains, cut its annual sales forecast and predicted slower profit growth over the next three years.Margins Set to Plunge If CEO Doug McMillon is indeed concerned about stock levels and long checkout lines, then he has to commit to more inventory in spite of missed sales targets. More importantly, he will have to hire more employees if he wants to shrink checkout lines. The latter is good news for hiring, but horrid news for profit margins. Moreover, extra hiring news is balanced by a cutback in store growth. It is easy to spin the hiring news however one wants. However, stock market levels are more than a bit inflated vs. overall earnings and margin projections. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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