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luni, 1 decembrie 2014

Avoid Common Google Analytics Bugs and Misunderstandings that Lead to Bad Data

Posted: 30 Nov 2014 04:15 PM PST

Problems in Google Analytics are causing you to get bad data, misunderstand reports and draw wrong conclusions. Many of these are not your fault, they're due to settings, bugs and the configuration of Google Analytics. There are also some that are just easy to misunderstand and that I've seen trip up even experienced consultants.

Read on to learn what you need to look for.

Beware of sampling bugs

My team and I have recently seen some strange sampling issues/bugs in Google Analytics. We were looking at the landing page report with an advanced filter. All sessions were reported around 15k. Applying an advanced segment to the same report, all sessions were inflated by about 2.6x to 40k. See the image below:

We've seen this in other reports too, but we're still unsure why this is happening. We've reported it to Google and they think it is a bug. If anyone else knows why this is happening, I'd be interested in hearing why in the comments below. For now, all we can do is be aware that this can happen.

Don't trust funnel visualisation

Funnel visualisation is one of the reports that people love to use. It's great in theory, looks good and at first glance tells you lots of the things you want to know.

The problem is, it's often just wrong. My number one tip for the funnel visualisation report is this: don't use it. Seriously. For three reasons:

Data inaccuracies - I'll cover these in a minute
Lack of segmentation - looking at all of your data on aggregate isn't very useful
Goal flow report - most of what you want from the funnel visualisation report can actually be done in the goal flow report (although this is heavily sampled)

I'm only going to cover two of the inaccuracies/assumptions here; for more details and for a comprehensive overview of funnel visualisation and goal flow I recommend reading this.

Backfilling funnel steps

The whole point in creating a funnel is to see exactly where people go, and how many people move through the funnel steps. Unfortunately, that's very hard to see in Google Analytics. The section below, taken from the support article, explains the problem:

"The Funnel Visualisation report backfills any skipped steps between the step at which the user entered the funnel and the step at which the user exited the funnel.
For example, let's say your funnel is defined as /step1 > /step2 > /step3 > goal, and a user navigates from /step2 to goal, skipping /step1 and /step3.
In the Funnel Visualisation report, you'd see an entrance to /step 2, a continuation to /step 3, and a continuation to goal."

The longer the funnel, the more unusable this becomes because you have no idea which pages users really visited and which Google Analytics is just backfilling. All the funnel really shows is the entrance and exit point.

Order of funnel steps

The order that the steps are taken in also isn't taken into consideration. This makes the entry and exit pages also unusable. To use Google's example:

"For example, let's say your funnel is defined as /step1 > /step2 > /step3.html > goal.html.
A user then had this session: /xyz > /step3 > /step2 > /abc.
The Funnel Visualisation report would show an entrance from /xyz to /step2, a continuation to /step3 and an exit from /step3 to /abc."

We actually know that the entrance page was /page3 not /page2 and that the exit page was /step2 not /step3.

While I can see some of the logic behind these decisions, I would be very reluctant to draw any conclusions from the data. For most funnel analysis needs, I like PadiTrack which is mostly free. For other problems with the funnel visualisation report I also recommend this article by LunaMetrics.

Some single page sessions are not bounces, but all bounces are single page sessions

Without a full understanding of bounce rate, using this metric can be misleading. Bounced sessions are a subset of single page sessions. The best way to understand what 'bounce' means is to forget about the term 'pageviews' and use 'engagement hits' instead. I highly recommend this article by Justin Cutroni explaining time calculations in Google Analytics.

An engagement hit can be any one of the following five hit types:

Pageview hits
Interactive event hits
Ecommerce transaction hits
Ecommerce transaction item hits
Social plugin hits

A bounced session occurs when only one of the above hit types is sent to the server. If more than one is sent, it's not a bounce. For example:

You land on page, and then immediately leave - this is a single page session and a bounce, as only the pageview hit was sent.
You land on a page click a tweet button and leave - assuming you are using social hits, this is a single page visit but is not a bounce, as you sent a pageview hit plus a social hit.
You land on a page, click a tab that sends an event and leave - this is a single page session, but not a bounce, as firing an event counts as a hit.

In most cases, it seems sensible that single page sessions where people tweet, play videos, click buttons and buy products shouldn't be treated as bounces, but it's still worth being aware of because it could be causing some pages to have deceivingly low bounce rates.

All referrals start new sessions in Universal Analytics

Universal Analytics starts a new session every time someone arrives on your site from a referral. This wasn't the case with Classic Analytics JavaScript (ga.js). In classic Google Analytics, as long as the time between referral 1 and referral 2 was less than 30 minutes and the referral wasn't overridden by campaign tracking like AdWords or manual tagging, the original referrer would get credit.

There is one scenario when a referral won't trigger a new session in Universal Analytics - referral traffic from an ignored domain. When you set up a new Google Analytics property, your own domain is added to the exclusion list. This is only available if using ga.js code on your site. Upgrading the admin interface to Universal Analytics isn't enough. Referral traffic from domains on this list do not start a new session. The advantage of the new back-end functionality is that you'll no longer see self referrals in your Google Analytics reports without having to make any code changes.

The disadvantage of this way of treating referrals is conversions/goals can be misattributed to sites like payment providers. Imagine the scenario below (this is a common set up for E-commerce sites).

Image Source

A new session is started when moving from paymentdomain.com to yourwebsite.com, so sales would be attributed to referral traffic from paymentdomain instead of Google organic.

To stop this happening you need to add the domain of your payment provider to your referral exclusion list. This is easy to do in the admin section of your account. See instructions on how to do it here.

That's all folks. I hope you'll be able to make more informed decisions from your data after reading this. If anyone knows any more details on any of the items on the list I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts in the comments.

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Seth's Blog : Doing more, giving more, who's in charge?

Doing more, giving more, who's in charge?

Have you ever worked as hard as you did during that Organic Chemistry class? Or pulled more all nighters than you did when you were part of that project team?

And have you ever given more to charity than you did when someone pushed you to do so? Why do we need ice buckets and galas to incite us to donate to causes?

Along the way, we’ve come to believe that external motivation is the key to our success. That we need to be part of a degree program or a sales contest or have a boss looking over our shoulder to do our best work, to push us.

Of course, we were taught this by the marketers, industrialists and institutions that make a living by providing us external motivation...

If you accept the bargain of doing work on demand, though, you’ve just handed your future over to someone else. You've committed your best work to the highest bidder and to the person with proximity and leverage.

As marketing decentralizes and more of us work with less supervision (and more upside when we find our own path) reliance on the external fails us.

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duminică, 30 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Simple Man's Macro View of the World

Posted: 30 Nov 2014 11:01 PM PST

I received an interesting email the Wednesday before Thanksgiving from Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo bank, regarding his macro picture of the world.

I purposely delayed posting it until now so more would see it than during a holiday-truncated week.

From Steen ...

Simple Man's View

One Trading View: Fixed income will outperform all assets. US 10-Year treasury yield will drop under 1.5% by 2015 Q3
One Economic View: Disinflation/deflation will be catalyst for asset sell-off
One Timing View: Q2/Q3-2015 low this cycle for all indicators
One Guaranteed View: Volatility will go up significantly

Core Trading Views

10Y Bond yields(US) will continue lower into Q2-2015. I see acceleration to down-side and mainly in the US where 10 Y could hit 2.00% and bottom out at 1.5% by Q2 as GDP comes off relative to "lift off" consensus.

European factors: Lower than anticipated growth in Germany (China rebalancing, lower US current account deficit and EZ overall) – Impact from Russia crisis only beginning to impact real economy and of course the deflation which ECB promised us would never happen.

US factors: Energy sector moving towards default and closing down capacity – subtracting 0.3-0.5% from GDP plus lackluster housing market despite record low mortgage rates plus contraction in monetary aggregates.

China: Despite Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut the economy is already at 5.0% in real terms and without reform in health care(why people save money), competition (anti-corruption) and deeper capital markets, the marginal change will continue to be negative.

Emerging Market: Strong US Dollar is the last thing the EM market needs. It's a de facto tightening of monetary policy at a time where "export markets" continue to weaken.

The world is barely surviving at an average yield of 1.5/2.0%. We have two drivers of growth: US and Emerging markets (EM). EM is under pressure as we end 2014 forced into the defensive by lack of reforms, but also a much stronger US Dollar, which means the "mean-reversion" trade is for 2015 is for a weaker US dollar to rebalance towards EM growth as the path of least resistance.

I have no doubt EM becomes major buy sometimes in Q2 when world is off the concept of ever stronger US dollar based on a growth lift-off which is never coming.

US growth has been 2% plus or minus since the financial crisis started, this year it will be 2%- next year? 2% - nowhere close to the 3-4% expected by the markets building on "surveys" and feel good factors. Trust me, as someone who spend too much time traveling this year, the world is worse off, not better.

I meet frustration, lack of access to credit and almost desperation when the question is on asset allocation, but 2015 looks like a year of change. FOMC will definitely continue to sell the "pipe dream" of normalization, BOJ is done and toast.

Why anyone believes printing money will leave Japan better off is a mystery to me.

In closing, I have very little positions – the stock market is on a mission to kill the shorts, which will probably succeed. The FX market believes in Santa Japan, and ECB continues to do nothing but talk, but for now it's enough to sell the product which is risk on at all costs.

The correction will be deeper and deeper as market is dislocated through zero interest rates and an investor crowd which is rewarded for throwing all conservative risk rules overboard in a year where we again have double digit gains on low interest rates.

Let's hope ECB plays ball for the market to buy some more time, for now we play musical chairs, and when the music stops more than one chair will be missing.

Positions

75% of risk is long Fixed Income (mainly US)
10% risk in equities, mainly mining plays (Alcoa & Fortescue) – looking to add VALE and others in sector on inflation expectations hitting rock bottom in Q1.
5% long Silver… bought on sell-off.
5% Natural Gas – preparing for long and cold winter.
5% Upside optionality in EUR calls, USD puts

How bad are things? Well, let me give you my starting slide from the presentations done in November:

Steen

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Podemos "Economic Manifesto" Calls for Debt Restructuring, Spain to Abandon the "Euro Trap"

Posted: 30 Nov 2014 09:56 AM PST

The Podemos party, a far-left populist party in Spain led by Pablo Iglesias, has come from out of nowhere to lead the polls.

Podemos' economic manifesto includes debt restructuring, exiting the European Monetary Union, and a jobs program to end unemployment.

The plan was drawn up by Vincenç Navarro and Juan Torres, two Spanish economists.

Left to right: Pablo Iglesias (party leader), Carolina Bescansa (party member) and economists Vincenç Navarro and Juan Torres, present Podemos' economic program.

Via translation from Libre Mercado, Podemos Admits Its Economic program Unfeasible Under Current Euro.

Globalization and National Sovereignty Incompatible

The document includes harsh criticism of globalization, stating "democracy, national sovereignty and global economic integration are mutually incompatible."

Euro Trap

"Besides being quite integrated into the global economy, Spain is mostly integrated in the euro monetary union and this also represents a first order constraint when developing an economic program of government."

"Our membership of the single European currency means, as is well known, that do not have essential instruments of economic policy, as control over the amount of money or the external value of the currency. But not only that. It also means that other instruments which in principle could be at our disposal, such as fiscal policy and sectoral policies can only be used with great limitations and in some cases with hands completely tied."

"Spaniards should be aware that it is physically impossible that they can pursue policies that meet the national interest, within the euro as it is designed. Should know that the euro was conceived as a real trap, but nowhere is it written that people have to accept it without further."

Debt Restructuring

"Debt restructuring, especially the peripheral countries, is not a whimsical proposal but the result of a cooperative strategy which is much more favorable than that imposed so far and that can end a crisis far more serious and widespread. The only possible way out of this vicious circle is genuine restructuring of European and Spanish debt."

Job Creation Program

"Work towards full employment should be a priority of the government. This can be achieved by stimulating the private sector, and where this is not enough, through job creation by the state to correct the huge deficit of social infrastructure including the expansion of public services of the welfare state, now clearly underfunded in Spain."

"If Spain had one person in five in public services, as did Sweden in 2010, there would be more than three million and additional jobs in our country."

Mish Comments

Other than to call for Spain to abandon the euro, Podemos' economic manifesto is economic nonsense. However, the manifesto is bound to have popular appeal.

Everyone likes to believe in the Keynesian free lunch concept. It's logical to expect some country in the eurozone is going to at some point be willing to try just that.

I keep repeating... "Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the bail out debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected."

It's quite possible Pablo Iglesias is just that person.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : We can't talk about it

We can't talk about it

We can't talk about how we could do things better around here

We can't talk about what isn't working

We can't talk about the countless opportunties we ignore

We can't talk about what hurts

We can't talk about dignity

We can't talk about how to make magic happen

We can't talk to our boss, our employees, our board, our investors

We can't talk about the things we can't talk about

That's a shame.

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sâmbătă, 29 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Sanctions on Russia Bite Europe, China the Beneficiary

Posted: 29 Nov 2014 02:57 PM PST

European sanctions on Russia have hurt the EU far more than Russia. Moreover, Europe has lost key machinery contracts to China, and those contracts will likely stay with China even after sanctions are lifted.

Please consider Europe Feels Sting in the Tail of Russia Sanctions.

At a technology fair in Moscow last month, European executives faced the new reality of doing business in Russia since the West imposed sanctions: the number of companies at the international showcase had shrunk by half from a year ago.

"The impact on business couldn't be clearer. Fewer stands, fewer companies," said Mark Bultinck, a sales executive for Belgian digital screen maker Barco, which had a booth at the annual expo for the audiovisual industry.

The impact of the sanctions was already clear to Barco.

The company lost Russia's biggest shipbuilder as a client when the United States and the European Union blacklisted United Shipbuilding Corporation in July, meaning Barco could no longer sell screens to the company for its vessel training simulators.

Barco's experience shows how sanctions are having a broad impact not just on Russian companies but on European ones too and at a time when Europe's weak economy can ill afford it.

companies are at risk of losing contracts to competitors from China and elsewhere, according to Frank Schauff, chief executive office at the Association of European Businesses in Russia.

"Countries that have not imposed sanctions are able to jump in where the EU has left a gap," said Schauff. "The economic position that the European Union has in Russia is at risk and it is very difficult to gain that back if it is lost."

Lost Business

EU exports to Russia fell 19 percent to 7.9 billion euros ($9.91 billion) compared to July.
EU exports down 18 percent compared to August 2013.
Total EU exports fell 12 percent in the first eight months of this year compared to a year ago.
EU exports of machinery and transport equipment such as cars and tractors fell 23 percent compared to July.
Machinery and transport exports fell 21 percent from a year ago.
Manufactured exports fell 16 percent across the 28-nation bloc in August.
Italy's manufactured exports tumbled by almost half.

None of this should be surprising. It's exactly what one could have and should have expected at the outset. The only beneficiary of the inane sanctions has been China.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Italy's Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Hits Record High 13.2%

Posted: 29 Nov 2014 08:21 AM PST

The string of unexpectedly bad news in the eurozone continues unabated as Italian Unemployment Rate Rises to Record, Above Forecasts.

The unemployment rate rose to 13.2 percent from a revised 12.9 percent the previous month, the Rome-based national statistics office Istat said in a preliminary report today. That's the highest since the quarterly series began in 1977. The median estimate of seven economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an unemployment rate of 12.6 percent in October.

The youth unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 rose to 43.3 percent last month from 42.7 percent in September, today's report showed.

Expectations vs. Reality

Economists expected a drop in unemployment of 0.3%. Instead unemployment rose 0.3%.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi blamed the rise on an increase in the participation rate, with more people looking for a job.

Similar to the setup in the US, those who want a job but do not look for one are not considered unemployed. Instead, they are considered "discouraged workers".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Stumbling your way to greatness

Stumbling your way to greatness

One reason people who spend a lot of time thinking about and working on a problem or a craft seem to find breakthroughs more often than everyone else is that they've failed more often than everyone else.

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vineri, 28 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Conflicting Shopping Headlines: NY Times "Brisk Sales", Yahoo "Black Friday Shopping Crowds Thin"

Posted: 28 Nov 2014 10:43 AM PST

Here's a pair of conflicting stories regarding Black Friday shopping.

Crowds Thin

Yahoo!Finance reports Black Friday Shopping Crowds Thin After Thanksgiving Rush.

Mall crowds were relatively thin early on Black Friday in a sign of what has become the new normal in U.S. holiday shopping: the mad rush is happening the night of Thanksgiving and more consumers are picking up deals online.

"It just looks like any other weekend," said Angela Olivera, a 32-year old housewife shopping for children's clothing at the Westfarms Mall near Hartford, Connecticut. "The kind of crowds we usually see are missing and this is one of the biggest malls here. I think people are just not spending a lot."

Brisk Sales

The New York Times reports Black Friday Sales Are Brisk, Retailers Say, Bolstered by Online Deals.

Parking lots at some shopping malls filled up around the country on Friday, as shoppers kept up the tradition of scouring stores for holiday deals even though some retailers had been open on Thanksgiving and even overnight.

Big retailers, many of whom kicked off sales Thursday evening, reported brisk traffic overnight. Walmart said that 22 million shoppers streamed through stores across the country on Thanksgiving Day, more than the number of people who visit Disney's Magic Kingdom in an entire year, the retail giant pointed out.

Still, as retailers jump-start their deals earlier and more sales move online, Black Friday itself is starting to fade in importance.

Target said its best-selling goods in store were the Element 40" TV, the Xbox One, iPads and Nikon's L330 camera. In the first hour of stores opening, Target sold 1,800 TVs per minute and 2,000 video games per minute, the retailer said in a release. Keurig's K40 brewer and Dyson's DC50 vacuum were other top sellers, Target said.

Economists are closely watching whether retailers can entice shoppers to spend during what retailers consider the biggest shopping weekend of the year, especially after a year of lackluster sales so far. A brightening economic outlook, and ever-cheaper gas prices, are starting to lift consumer confidence. But there are also signs of lingering wariness among consumers, after what has been an uneven economic recovery marked by anemic wage growth, especially for low-income households.

And online, which makes up a bigger share of holiday sales each year, retailers have been offering Black Friday deals for many days now, stretching what was once a one-day shopping frenzy into a week or more of sales.

Online retailers have also driven the heavier-than-ever discounting this year. Amazon has priced out many of the country's biggest retailers in the big-ticket holiday items, offering a Samsung 55-inch 4K flat-screen television for $899. Dealnews.com, which closely tracks Black Friday deals, declared Amazon's deal "without a doubt" the cheapest name-brand 4K television it had ever seen.

IBM Digital Analytics, which tracks online shopping transactions in the United States, said sales rose 12 percent between midnight and 6 p.m. Eastern time Thanksgiving Day.

Is traffic up or down? Perhaps it varies by region. Two safe bets: Online shopping is up, and Black Friday is losing importance as shopping is spread out over more days.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Japan Household Spending Down 4%, CPI Drops to 0.9%; Bankruptcies Soar in Yen Collapse

Posted: 28 Nov 2014 09:09 AM PST

In spite of the Yen falling 35% since 2011, Japan once again borders on deflation. Please consider Japan's CPI falls to 0.9%.

Japanese core inflation last month fell below 1 per cent to a 13 month low, just weeks before prime minister Shinzo Abe heads to the polls to garner fresh support to push back a scheduled rise in sales tax.

Core consumer prices, all prices excluding fresh food, slowed to an annual pace of 2.9 per cent growth year-on-year in October, in line with forecasts. Stripped of any impact of the sales tax rise in April, core prices are up 0.9 per cent.

Highlighting the scale of the challenges facing the Abe administration, data released on Friday also showed households further tightening their purse-strings.

Household spending fell 4 per cent year-on-year, the seventh consecutive decline since the national sales tax was raised from 5 to 8 per cent in April. Retail sales dropped 1.4 per cent, reversing two months of gains.

The drop in core inflation comes not even 10 days after Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan governor, warned that a fall below 1 per cent was "possible", in a reversal of comments made just four months ago.

Bankruptcies Soar in Yen Collapse

Here's an interesting note regarding bankruptcies that I picked up from ZeroHedge: As Japanese Bankruptcies Soar, Goldman Warns "Further Yen Depreciation Could Be A Net Burden"

According to a recent bankruptcy survey by Tokyo Shoko Research, there were 214 bankruptcies due to the weak yen in January-September 2014, which is 2.4 times the 89 seen in January-September 2013. Far more of the bankruptcies were in the nonmanufacturing sector—81 in transport, 41 in wholesale trade, 19 in services, and 11 in retail—than in the manufacturing sector (44), which is consistent with our analysis based on the input/output tables.

Surprisingly, the number of bankruptcies since 2013 due to yen depreciation far surpasses the number of bankruptcies in 2009-2011 due to yen appreciation.

Bankruptcies Caused by Falling Yen

The Japanese consumer is faced with a falling yen, much higher taxes, and counting taxes prices much higher. The only saving grace for Japan has been falling energy prices.

Yet, prime minister Shinzo Abe Wants inflation and more of it. It's madness.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

luni, 1 decembrie 2014

Avoid Common Google Analytics Bugs and Misunderstandings that Lead to Bad Data

Avoid Common Google Analytics Bugs and Misunderstandings that Lead to Bad Data

Beware of sampling bugs

Don't trust funnel visualisation

Backfilling funnel steps

Order of funnel steps

Some single page sessions are not bounces, but all bounces are single page sessions

All referrals start new sessions in Universal Analytics

Seth's Blog : Doing more, giving more, who's in charge?

Doing more, giving more, who's in charge?

More Recent Articles

duminică, 30 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : We can't talk about it

We can't talk about it

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 29 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Stumbling your way to greatness

Stumbling your way to greatness

More Recent Articles

vineri, 28 noiembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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luni, 1 decembrie 2014

Beware of sampling bugs

Don't trust funnel visualisation

Backfilling funnel steps

Order of funnel steps

Some single page sessions are not bounces, but all bounces are single page sessions

All referrals start new sessions in Universal Analytics

duminică, 30 noiembrie 2014

sâmbătă, 29 noiembrie 2014

vineri, 28 noiembrie 2014

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