Central Perk

marți, 2 decembrie 2014

Seth's Blog : Would you please share my new book?

Would you please share my new book?

What To Do When It's Your Turn, my new book, is now shipping.

"It seems that Seth's books always find me at the exact moment when I need them the most. Many people label Seth as a great marketer (and he's the best) but after reading his books and working with him, I can tell you it goes much deeper. He's not asking us to be better marketers. His is a call to become more of what makes you, *you*. This book is a call-to-arms and a manifesto of personal art. It will be what everyone on my list gets this year. There are some books you read, and then there are some books you live by. This is the one to live by..."

Josh Long, Writer and Designer

I don't write this blog to help me sell books. I write books to help the blog make change happen.

My new book is just out this week, and I hope you'll take a minute to click here find out more about it. I've added some rare videos and other surprises to the page.

If you order a copy of the book, I'm going to send you two. (And if you order three, I'll send you five). The entire point of the book is to create an agent of change, a lever that helps you and the people you care about start doing even more work that matters.

Deciding how to talk about my own work on the blog is a tricky thing. This is the most urgent, accessible book I've ever written, and in order to get all the details the way I envisioned them, I published it myself. If you haven't read one of my books, I hope you'll start here.

The book won't be in bookstores or widely promoted. It means that the only people who are able to spread it are you, my esteemed and trusted readers.

I'm going to make this post sticky and keep it on top of my blog for a few days, but the regular daily posts will appear below. I'll also be adding blurbs and such to the post this week. Thank you, for caring enough to share these ideas.

"...an intellectual tour-de-force, taking everything he has shared from his previous books and putting forth what I will call a geniune masterpiece. Read this book now, then write your name in it and share it with someone who deserves it."

Joseph Ratliff, writer

PS All the details are here including a single-copy international option, a live audiobook pre-order and some translations.

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Seth's Blog : Babies and bathwater

Babies and bathwater

I got a call yesterday from a charity.

Actually, I got an unsolicited spam pitch from one of the worst charities in America. They give less than 1% of what they raise to the cause in question.

Therefore, some might say, it makes no sense to give to anyone, ever.

Which would be a shame, because it's a mistake to fail to do the hard work of discerning the good from the deceptive.

The thing is, everything worth doing is done to excess, poorly, immorally, inefficiently, by someone. But that doesn't change the fact that the very same thing done right is worth doing.

One way we make sense of the world is to put things into categories, and to label those categories. The mistake we make again and again is in picking the wrong categories, or giving them easy, but inaccurate labels. We don't need to tar the 'charity' category with sleazy folks like these, they deserve their own category, 'selfish marketers.' Just as we don't benefit by writing off anyone based on their appearance, gender or other easy but useless labels.

When we're actively inclined to do something, we rarely let the bad actors get in the way. People don't say, "some cars are poorly made, and so I'm never going to buy a car," or, "some money is counterfeit, so I'm not going to accept cash..."

The trick is to label people and organizations by what they do, not by what they look like or what they call themselves. The more we reward the behaviors we admire, the less likely the selfish will be able to take advantage of our labeling errors.

The right charity changes the world, just as it changes us when we engage with it.

[Charities I'm donating to today: Acumen, Room to Read, charity: water, DoSomething, Possible Health, Afya, Build On and Pencils of Promise.]

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luni, 1 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Fed Governor Dudley "U.S. Economic Outlook Looks Brighter"; Ring! Ring! Goes the Bell
Huge Commodity Reversals; Is the Bottom In?
Big Three Contraction: Germany, France, Italy; Core Rots as Spain Improves; Eurozone Recession Coming Up

Fed Governor Dudley "U.S. Economic Outlook Looks Brighter"; Ring! Ring! Goes the Bell

Posted: 01 Dec 2014 11:08 PM PST

New York Fed President William Dudley says "Dreary Days for U.S. Economy May Be Over".

Despite some headwinds, Dudley is optimistic that America could grow closer to 2.5% to 3% in the coming year instead of the ho-hum 2% growth that has been a hangover of the Great Recession.

"The U.S. economic outlook looks brighter, with growth likely to be somewhat above the trend of the past five years," Dudley said in a speech on Monday

In fact, Dudley thinks the economy could soon be healthy enough for the central bank to lift interest rates off the ground.

He's signaling the Fed will likely be able to raise interest rates in 2015.

"While raising interest rates is often portrayed as a difficult task for central bankers, in fact, given the events since the onset of the financial crisis, it would be a development to be truly excited about," Dudley said.

"When the [Fed] begins to raise its federal funds rate target, this would indicate that the U.S. economy is finally getting healthier," he explained.

Dudley On the Economy

Fed Governors tend to be among the best contrary indicators you can find, so much so that I have to wonder if a bell just rang.

Ring, Ring Goes the Bell

William Dudley is ready to sell...

But I ain't buyin' it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Huge Commodity Reversals; Is the Bottom In?

Posted: 01 Dec 2014 01:03 PM PST

Gold, silver, and oil put in pretty spectacular reversals today from Friday Noon. Let's take a look.

Gold 60-Minute Chart

Silver 60-Minute Chart

Brent Crude

Gold, Silver, Crude

click on any chart for sharper image

Prices approximate as of 2:40 PM Central.

Is the Bottom In?

These are enormous 1-day swings. Coupled with previous action, it's likely gold and silver have hit at least a short-term bottom, and likely much longer.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Big Three Contraction: Germany, France, Italy; Core Rots as Spain Improves; Eurozone Recession Coming Up

Posted: 01 Dec 2014 10:18 AM PST

The manufacturing PMI for each of Europe's top three countries is in decline. Recession will follow.

Germany

The Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI - Final Data shows PMI at 17-month low, in contraction.

Summary: The seasonally adjusted final Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index ® PMI fell from 51.4 in October to a 17-month low of 49.5 in November, signalling contraction in Germany's goods- producing sector. The headline PMI is now seven points lower than at the beginning of the year and remained below its long-run average of 51.9. The headline index reading followed an earlier 'flash' estimate of 50.0.

Comment: Oliver Kolodseike, economist at Markit and author of the report said "German manufacturers continued to record growth of production in November, but this expansion seems to be based on increasingly shaky foundations. In particular, output expanded despite lower backlogs, falling stocks of finished goods and the sharpest drop in new orders for almost two years."

France

The Markit France Manufacturing PMI Final Data shows French manufacturing sector contraction continues in November.

Summary: Operating conditions in the French manufacturing sector worsened further in November. The headline Markit France Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index ® PMI slipped to 48.4, from 48.5 in October. The latest reading was the lowest in three months and indicative of a moderate rate of deterioration. Production at French manufacturers fell for a sixth consecutive month in November. The rate of contraction was little-changed from the moderate pace recorded in October.

Output decreased in line with another drop in the level of new orders received by French manufacturers during November. The latest reduction in new work was the seventh in successive months, with the rate of decline accelerating to the sharpest since August. Panellists linked the latest drop in new orders to fragile economic conditions and tight household finances. New export orders fell again, albeit modestly and at a weaker rate than one month previously.

Comment: Jack Kennedy , Senior Economist at Markit , which compiles the France Manufacturing PMI ® survey, said "The French manufacturing sector showed no sign of shaking off its malaise in November, posting another month of modest contraction. The sector continues to struggle in the face of weak demand conditions, with another round of output price cuts failing to prevent new orders falling at a sharper rate. Data suggested that the domestic market remained the main source of weakness , reflecting the wider sluggish performance of the French economy."

Italy

The Markit /ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI shows manufacturing output falls slightly, weakness in new orders continues, Employment falls at fastest rate since September 2013.

Summary: Italy's manufacturing sector continued to contract during November. Despite growth in export orders, output was reduced for the second month running as total new business fell again. Weakness on the demand side led to further contractions in manufacturers' purchasing activity and employment, with the latter dropping at a faster rate. Meanwhile, producer prices increased slightly as firms faced a rise in average purchasing costs. The headline Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index PMI registered 49.0 in November, unchanged from October's 17-month low. The index has now registered below 50.0 – signalling deteriorating business conditions – in three of the past four months.

Core Rots as Spain, Ireland, Netherlands Improve

The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Final Data shows Eurozone manufacturing stagnates as big-three nations contract.

Summary: The slowdown in the eurozone manufacturing sector continued into November, according to the latest PMI surveys from Markit. At 50.1, the final seasonally adjusted Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ® was only slightly above the no-change level of 50.0 and below its earlier flash estimate of 50.4. Five out of the eight nations for which data are collected reported contractions in November, the highest proportion since the current recovery in euro area manufacturing began in July last year.

Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said "With the final PMI coming in below the flash reading, the situation in euro area manufacturing is worse than previously thought. Not only is the performance of the sector the worst seen since mid-2013, there is a risk that renewed rot is spreading across the region from the core. The sector has more or less stagnated since August , but we are now seeing, for the first time in nearly one-and-a-half years, the three largest economies all suffering manufacturing downturns. Germany's export engine has stalled, causing the steepest deterioration of new orders in the country since December 2012, and new business is also falling in both France and Italy, boding ill for production in coming months."

Markit Eurozone PMI Table

Eurozone Recession Coming Up

It's safe to assume Spain, Ireland, and the Netherlands will not stop a now baked-into-the-cake overall European recession.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

A Black Friday Face-off between Customers in Britain
Famous Events Back In The Day And Today
62-Year-Old Mickey Rourke Beats 29-Year-Old in Boxing Match

A Black Friday Face-off between Customers in Britain

Posted: 01 Dec 2014 11:45 AM PST

One of Britain's supermarkets had to close for half an hour as a result of customers fighting over items in store. These are some photos of real fights between customers over sale goods.

Famous Events Back In The Day And Today

Posted: 01 Dec 2014 10:33 AM PST

These photos clearly show that we as people have come a very long way.

62-Year-Old Mickey Rourke Beats 29-Year-Old in Boxing Match

Posted: 01 Dec 2014 10:04 AM PST

At 62 years old Mickey Rourke is in better shape then most men in their prime. On Friday, in Moscow, Mickey Rourke beat 29-year-old Elliot Seymour, an American professional boxer, in the second round.