Central Perk

sâmbătă, 6 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Police Chokehold Ends in Death: Two Videos, Which One is Right?

Posted: 06 Dec 2014 06:37 PM PST

Here is a pair of videos on the death of Eric Garner via police chokehold.

The first video is by comedian Jon Stewart. The Second is an interview of Senator Rand Paul on Fox News.

Please play them both.

Jon Stewart Tears Into Eric Garner Reactions

Link if video does not play: Jon Stewart Tears Into Eric Garner Reactions

Eric Garner 'Didn't Need to Die'

Link if video does not play: Eric Garner 'Didn't Need to Die'

My Take

Both videos come to the same conclusion: Eric Garner 'Didn't Need to Die'. I think we can all agree on that.

And we certainly should agree that Stewart is correct in that something is truly messed up with the grand jury process.

The grand jury problem is easy to describe:

Prosecutors are in bed with the police. The grand jury is fed info the prosecutor wants the jury to hear. If the prosecutor does not want to go after after a police officer, it will not happen. But, if a prosecutor really wants to go after someone, rest assured the charges will be trumped up.

It's that simple. So on that point I side 100% with Jon Stewart.

Yet, Stewart clearly took a couple of clips of Rand Paul totally out of context to make his point. That's something he should not have done.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Gold Drain at the New York Fed: Where's It Going?

Posted: 06 Dec 2014 11:28 AM PST

Nick at Sharelynx Gold, also known as Gold Charts "R" Us emailed an interesting chart last week showing gold drain at the New York Fed.

Earmarked gold dropped 42 tonnes for the month of October as foreign countries repatriate their gold home.

Here's a link to Earmarked Gold with a second chart that shows all Fed holdings.

Gold Charts "R" Us has 1,000's of pages and over 10,000 charts on a subscription basis, but you can check out the site for free until December 14. Click on the first link at the top for a look.

Where's the Gold Going?

This was the largest monthly drawdown in 13 years and the largest series of drawdowns since 2007 (drawdowns in red on above chart).

So, where's the gold going? Three answers:

Germany

Koos Jansen at BullionStar reports German Gold Repatriation Accelerating.

That article is interesting because it takes to task extremely sloppy Bloomberg reporting regarding German golf repatriation.

Netherlands

On November 21, Jansen reported Netherlands Has Repatriated 122.5t Gold From US.

The Dutch central bank, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), has repatriated in utmost secret 122.5 tonnes of gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) to its vaults in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, according to a press release from DNB published today (November 21).

DNB states it has changed allocation policy from 11 % in Amsterdam, 51 % at the FRBNY, 20 % in Canada and 18 % at the Bank Of England (BOE); to 31 % in Amsterdam, 31 % at the FRBNY, 20 % in Canada and 18 % at the BOE. According to the World Gold Council's latest data DNB has 612.5 tonnes in official gold reserves.

Belgium

Yesterday, Jansen reported Belgium Investigating To Repatriate All Gold Reserves.

Countries want their gold back. Who can blame them?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Goals, strategy and tactics for change

Goals, strategy and tactics for change

The Goal: Who are you trying to change? What observable actions will let you know you've succeeded?

The Strategy: What are the emotions you can amplify, the connections you can make that will cause someone to do something they've hesitated to do in the past (change)? The strategy isn't the point, it's the lever that helps you cause the change you seek.

The Tactics: What are the actions you take that cause the strategy to work? What are the events and interactions that, when taken together, comprise your strategy?

An example: Our goal is to change good donors to our cause into really generous donors. Our strategy is to establish a standard for big gifts, to make it something that our good donors aspire to because it feels normal for someone like them. And today's tactic is hosting an industry dinner that will pair some of our best donors with those that might be open to moving up.

If you merely ask someone to help you with a tactic in isolation, it's likely you won't get the support you need. But if you can find out if you share a goal with someone, then can explain how your strategy can make it likely that you'll achieve that goal, working together on a tactic that supports that strategy is an obvious thing to do.

And it certainly opens the door to a useful conversation about whether your goal is useful, your strategy is appropriate and your tactic is coherent and likely to cause the change you seek.

A tactic might feel fun, or the next thing to do, or a lot like what your competition is doing. But a tactic by itself is nothing much worth doing. If it supports a strategy, a longer-term plan that builds on itself and generates leverage, that's far more powerful. But a strategy without a goal is wasted.

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vineri, 5 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Global Oil Consumption Report: What Countries Have Increased or Decreased Oil Usage Since 2009?

Posted: 05 Dec 2014 11:01 AM PST

Reader David Epperson sent in some interesting charts on global oil usage that he produced from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. The data is through the end of 2013.

David writes ...

Hello Mish,

I was curious how much oil consumption had declined over the last few years, so I went to the EIA web site, downloaded the consumption data and produced the following charts.

The data represents the percentage change in oil consumption from 2009 to 2013, the latest year non-OECD data were available. This is an absolute percentage change, and not an annualized change. For instance, oil consumption in Spain was roughly 20% lower in 2013 than in 2009. This was about the same rate of decline seen in war-wracked Syria. Greece was down even more, close to 30%.

In order to make the data labels readable, I've had to separate the charts into three. One shows countries in the 1 million to 20 million b/d group. The next shows the 1 million – 4 million club (all large countries excluding the US, China and Japan), and the next shows the 100,000 to 1 million b/d club.

I've excluded the 141 countries in the EIA database whose consumption was less than 100,000 b/d, since these only account for about 3.5% of total global demand.

The sum for the entire world was a 6.5% increase from 2009-13.

Best regards,
David

Large Users: 1-20 Million Barrels Per Day

click on any chart for sharper image

Medium Users: 1-4 Million Barrels Per Day (Above Minus US, China, Japan)

Small Users: 100,00 to 1 Million Barrels Per Day

Observations

Usage in the US is up only 1% since 2009
Usage in most European countries is down since 2009 (Germany, UK, Spain, Italy, France, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Portugal, Czech Republic, Ireland, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland)
China, Japan, India, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia are the largest countries where oil usage is expanding
From a Peak Oil aspect China and Japan are the most troubling

Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day)

Country	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	% ∆ 09-13	Growth 09-13	% Growth
China	8,539.73	9,330.18	9,504.05	9,874.71	10,116.64	18.5%	1,576.91	28.5%
Saudi Arabia	2,194.54	2,371.38	2,760.91	2,861.00	2,925.00	33.3%	730.46	13.2%
Brazil	2,481.45	2,621.78	2,886.71	2,997.00	3,097.00	24.8%	615.55	11.1%
India	3,112.74	3,255.39	3,280.98	3,450.00	3,509.00	12.7%	396.26	7.2%
Russia	2,950.43	2,992.09	3,115.03	3,195.47	3,320.00	12.5%	369.57	6.7%
Indonesia	1,405.89	1,465.50	1,571.30	1,610.00	1,660.00	18.1%	254.11	4.6%
Canada	2,184.18	2,283.35	2,310.12	2,350.69	2,424.35	11.0%	240.17	4.3%
United States	18,771.40	19,180.13	18,882.07	18,490.21	18,961.13	1.0%	189.73	3.4%
Argentina	588.62	620.26	729.10	737.00	758.00	28.8%	169.38	3.1%
Japan	4,362.79	4,429.24	4,442.45	4,694.76	4,530.82	3.9%	168.03	3.0%

BRICs and Saudi Arabia

Global oil consumption is up 6.5% from 2009-13. China alone accounts for 28.5% of that growth.

The top 5 global oil-growth contributors (China, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, and Russia) account for 66.7% of global oil usage growth since 2009.

BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) GDPs, especially China and India are highly unlikely to grow at projected rates, especially if global oil production does not keep up.

Japan is also on a dangerous path. Abenomics would look far worse were it not for declining energy prices.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Nonfarm Payrolls +321K; Unemployment 5.8%; Employed +4,000 (Household Survey), Unemployment +115,000

Posted: 05 Dec 2014 08:26 AM PST

Initial Reaction

The payroll survey shows a net gain of 321,000 jobs vs. a Bloomberg consensus expectation of 230,000 jobs. September was revised up from 256,000 to 271,000. October was revised up from 214,000 to 243,000.

The unemployment rate was steady although employment only rose by 4,000 in the household survey. Unemployment actually rose by 115,000. Swings in household survey employment and the labor force have been wild lately.

Once again we are in a situation where the establishment survey and the household survey are at odds. Over time these fluctuations tend to smooth out. The question, as always, is "in which direction".

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +321,000 - Establishment Survey
Employment: +4,000 - Household Survey
Unemployment: +115,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work: -177,000 - Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work: +235,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 at 5.8% - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 11.4% - Household Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +187,000
Civilian Labor Force: +119,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: +69,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate: +0.0 at 62.8 - Household Survey

November 2014 Employment Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) November 2014 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Nonfarm Employment January 2011 - November 2014

Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type

Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees rose by 0.1 hours to 34.6 hours. For three consecutive months I said the exact same thing. Twice in a row, a correction now put the previous month at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.4 hours.

Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.04 to $20.74. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private service-providing employees also rose $0.04 to $20.53.

For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Birth Death Model

Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment

click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 5.8%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 11.4%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com