marți, 9 decembrie 2014

Posted on: Tuesday 09 December 2014 — 12:31

You may heard that in partnership with Local U, we're putting on a local SEO conference called LocalUp Advanced on Saturday, February 7. We're super-thrilled to be able to dive more into the local SEO space and bring you top speakers in the field for a one-day knowledge explosion. We're expecting around 125-150 people at our Seattle headquarters, so this is your chance to really chat with speakers and attendees one-to-one with a huge return on investment.

Moz Pro or Local U Subscribers $699
General Admission $999

LocalUp Advanced 2015 Agenda

8:00-9:00am	Breakfast
9:00-9:05am	Welcome to LocalUp Advanced 2015! with David Mihm
9:05-9:30am	Pigeons, Packs, & Paid: Google Local 2015 with Dr. Pete Meyers In the past year, Google shook the local SEO world with the Pigeon update, rolled out an entirely new local pack, and has aggressively dabbled in local advertising. Dr. Pete covers the year in review, how it's impacted the local landscape, and what to expect in 2015. Dr. Pete Meyers is the Marketing Scientist for Moz, where he works with the marketing and data science teams on product research and data-driven content. He's spent the past two years building research tools to monitor Google, including the MozCast project, and he curates the Google Algorithm History.
9:30-9:55am	Local Battlegrounds - Tactics, Trenches, and Ghosts with Mike Blumenthal Join Professor Maps and take a ride in the Way Back Whacky Machine to look at Google's technologies, tactics, and play books used to create, shape, and dominate the local ecosystem in their image. Learn what's relevant to marketing today and how these changes are shaping Google's coming battles in the space. If you're in Local, then you know Mike Blumenthal, and here is your chance to learn from this pioneer in local SEO, whose years of industry research and documentation have earned him the fond and respectful nickname 'Professor Maps.' Mike's blog has been the go-to spot for local SEOs since the early days of Google Maps. It's safe to say that there are few people on the planet who know more about this area of marketing than Mike. He's also the co-founder of GetFiveStars, an innovative review and testimonial software. Additionally, Mike loves biking, x-country skiing, and home cooking.
9:55-10:10am	Q&A with Dr. Peter Meyers and Mike Blumenthal
10:10-10:45am	Going Local with Google with Jade Wang Learn about local search with Google. We'll chat about the potential of local search and discuss how business information gets on Google. If you've gone to the Google and Your Business Forum for help (and, of course, you have!), then you know how quickly an answer from Google staffer Jade Wang can clear up even the toughest problems. She has been helping business owners get their information listed on Google since joining the team in 2012.
10:45-11:05am	AM Break
11:05-11:25am	Getting Local Keyword Research and On-page Optimization Right with Mary Bowling Local keyword data is often difficult to find, analyze, and prioritize. Get tips, tools, and processes for zeroing in on the best terms to target when optimizing your website and directory listings, and learn how and why to structure your website around them. Mary Bowling's been specializing in SEO and local search since 2003. She works as a consultant at Optimized!, is a partner at a small agency called Ignitor Digital, is a partner in Local U, and is also a trainer and writer for Search Engine News. Mary spends her days interacting directly with local business owners and understands holistic local needs.
11:25-11:50am	Local Content + Scale + Creativity = Awesome with Mike Ramsey If you are wondering who is crushing it with local content and how you can scale such efforts, then tune in as Mike Ramsey walks through ideas, examples, and lessons he has learned along the way. Mike Ramsey is the president of Nifty Marketing with offices in Burley and Boise, Idaho. He is also a Partner at Local U and many other ventures. Mike has an awesome wife and three kids who put up with all his talk about search.
11:50am-12:15pm	Review Acquisition Strategies That Work with Darren Shaw Darren Shaw will walk you through multiple real-world examples of businesses that are killing it with review acquisition. He'll detail exactly how they manage to get so many more reviews than their competitors and how you can use their methods to improve your own local search visibility. Darren Shaw is the President and Founder of Whitespark, a company that builds software and provides services to help businesses with local search. He's widely regarded in the local SEO community as an innovator, one whose years of experience working with massive local data sets have given him uncommon insights into the inner workings of the world of citation-building and local search marketing. Darren has been working on the web for over 16 years and loves everything about local SEO.
12:15-12:30pm	Q&A with Mary Bowling, Mike Ramsey, and Darren Shaw
12:30-1:30pm	Lunch
1:30-1:55pm	The Down-Low on LoMo (Local Mobile) SEO with Cindy Krum Half of all local searches happen on mobile, and that stat is just growing! Map search results are great, but your mobile site has to be great too. Cindy Krum will review the best practices for making your local site look perfect to mobile users and crawlers alike. No mobile site? No problem as you'll also get tips for how to make the most of mobile searches without one. Cindy Krum is the CEO and Founder of MobileMoxie, LLC, a mobile marketing consultancy and host of the most cutting-edge online mobile marketing toolset available today. Cindy is the author of Mobile Marketing: Finding Your Customers No Matter Where They Are, published by Que Publishing.
1:55-2:20pm	Thriving in the Mobile Ecosystem with Aaron Weiche A look into the opportunity of creating and growing the mobile experience between your customers and your brand: one strong enough to delight fingers, change minds, and win hearts. Aaron Weiche is a digital marketing geek focused on web design, mobile, and search marketing. Aaron is the COO of Spyder Trap in Minneapolis, Local U faculty member, founding board member of MnSearch, and a Local Search Ranking Factors Contributor since 2010.
2:20-2:45pm	Content, Conversations, and Conversions with Will Scott How local businesses, and the marketers who love them, can use social media to bring home the bacon. Helping small businesses succeed online since 1994, Will Scott has led teams responsible for thousands of websites, hundreds of thousands of pages in online directories, and millions of visits from search. Today, Will leads nearly 100 professionals at Search Influence putting results first and helping customers successfully market online.
2:45-3:10pm	Segmentation Domination with Ed Reese Learn how to gain powerful insight by creating creative custom segments in Google Analytics. This session shows several real-world examples in action and walks you through the brainstorming, implementation, and discovery process to utilize segmentation like never before. Ed Reese leads a talented analytics and usability team at his firm Sixth Man Marketing, is a co-founder of Local U, and an adjunct professor of digital marketing at Gonzaga University. In his free time, he optimizes his foosball and disc golf technique and spends time with his wife and two boys.
3:10-3:30pm	PM Break
3:30-4:00pm	Playing to Your Local Strengths with David Mihm Historically, local search has been one of the most level playing fields on the web with smaller, nimbler businesses having an advantage as larger enterprises struggled to adapt and keep up. Today, companies of both sizes can benefit from tactics that the other simply can't leverage. David will share some of the most valuable tactics that scale—and don't scale—in a presentation packed with actionable takeaways, no matter what size business you work with. David Mihm is one of the world's leading practitioners of local search engine marketing. He has created and promoted search-friendly websites for clients of all sizes since the early 2000s. David co-founded GetListed.org, which he sold to Moz in November 2012. Since then, he's served as our Director of Local Search Marketing, imparting his wisdom everywhere!
4:00-4:25pm	Don't Just Show Up, Stand Out with Dana DiTomaso Learn how to destroy your competitors with bringing personality to your marketing. Confront the challenges of making HIPPOs comfortable with unique voice, keep brand standards while injecting some fun, and stay in the forefront of your audience's mind. Whether at a conference, on the radio, or in a meeting, Dana DiTomaso likes to impart wisdom to help you turn a lot of marketing BS into real strategies to grow your business. After 10+ years and with a focus on local SMBs, she's seen (almost) everything. In her spare time, Dana drinks tea and yells at the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
4:25-4:40pm	Q&A with David Mihm and Dana DiTomaso
4:40-5:20pm	Exposing the Non-Obvious Elements of Local Businesses That Dominate on the Web with Rand Fishkin In some categories and geographies, a local small business wholly dominates the rankings and visibility across channels. What are the secrets to this success, and how can small businesses with remarkable products/services showcase their traits best online? In this presentation, Rand will dig deep into examples and highlight the recurring elements that help the best of the best stand out. Rand Fishkin is the founder of Moz. Traveler, blogger, social media addict, feminist, and husband.

And if that doesn't quite tickle your fancy... Workshops!

We'll also be hosting workshops with our speakers, which are amazing opportunities for you to dig into your specific questions and issues. I know, sometimes I get a little shy to ask questions in front of a crowd or just want to socialize at the after party, so this a great opportunity to get direct feedback.

Time	Workshop Option A	Workshop Option B
1:30-1:55pm	Reporting Q&A with Ed Reese and Dana DiTomaso Need help with your reporting? Ed and Dana will make sure you're on the right track and tracking the right things.	Google My Business Q&A with Jade Wang Google My Business can be confusing, but Jade Wang is here to lend a hand. She'll look over your specific problems and help you troubleshoot.
1:55-2:20pm	How to Troubleshoot All Things Local with Mike Blumenthal and Mary Bowling No Local SEO problem can get by the combined powers of Mike and Mary. This dynamic duo will assist you in diving into your specific questions, problems, and concerns.	Google My Business Q&A with Jade Wang Google My Business can be confusing, but Jade Wang is here to lend a hand. She'll look over your specific problems and help you troubleshoot.
2:20-2:45pm	Citation Q&A with David Mihm and Darren Shaw Getting the right citations for your business can be a powerful boost. David and Darren will show you how to wield citations correctly and creatively for your business.	Google My Business Q&A with Jade Wang Google My Business can be confusing, but Jade Wang is here to lend a hand. She'll look over your specific problems and help you troubleshoot.
2:45-3:10pm	Mobile Q&A with Aaron Weiche and Cindy Krum Local and mobile go hand-in-hand, but mobile implementation, optimization, and perfection can be tricky. Aaron and Cindy will help guide you and your business.	Google My Business Q&A with Jade Wang Google My Business can be confusing, but Jade Wang is here to lend a hand. She'll look over your specific problems and help you troubleshoot.

See you in February, friends. And please, don't hesitate to reach out if you have any questions!

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

The Un-Checkbox Approach to Content Marketing

Posted on: Tuesday 09 December 2014 — 01:18

Posted by Isla_McKetta

You may have noticed a trend in the blog posts I've written for Moz lately:

Basically, I ask a lot of questions because I don't like or trust hard and fast rules. And while every last one of these posts offers you a little bit of knowledge to then take back to your marketing campaigns and apply in the way that works best for your team and your company, there's not a guaranteed formula for success or correct answer in the bunch.

If you're resorting to tried and true advice, you're missing opportunities to do something better than anyone's ever done it before. Instead, I want you to question everything anyone's ever told you about how to make marketing (especially content marketing) work. You might fail a little along the way, but even the failures will teach you something about what success looks like.

Winning by breaking the rules

Image by laffy4k.

So in honor of the holiday season, let's unwrap our presents early and look at some marketing campaigns that won by flouting some fundamental rules of marketing.

Appeal to a wide audience

Not everyone knows who Skeletor is. And few of those love him, but Honda threw caution to the wind and let him star in their latest commercial.

While they are hedging their bets with other commercials starring Jem, Strawberry Shortcake, Gumby, and Stretch Armstrong, none are designed for mass appeal. Instead, they're taking advantage of random affinities that can help consumers feel deeply connected to your brand. I know I can't stop talking about them.

Stay on message

In 2013, Oreo newsjacked the hell out of the lights going out at the Super Bowl with this now iconic tweet:

Power out? No problem. pic.twitter.com/dnQ7pOgC

— Oreo Cookie (@Oreo) February 4, 2013

You know what happened. 15,000 retweets later, Oreo had won the Internet and real-time marketing was born. Imagine what would have happened if they'd stuck to their super-sweet pregame message of game day recipes. For one, we wouldn't be talking about them here.

Focus on your competitive advantage

I have no idea if TD Bank has a local branch, what their rates are like, if their tellers are awesome, or if they have an app that will revolutionize the way I do online banking.

But after this commercial, I want desperately to do business with them because of the core values this video speaks to. They're asking us to connect with who they are, not what they do. And it works.

Meanwhile, this commercial for the MacBook Air also skips product info and instead focuses on how people use the product rather than what's amazing about it.

At the end, I have zero idea what the competitive advantages of a MacBook are. But I want one. And I want to put stickers on it.

Don't offend anyone

Remember the Joe Boxer/Kmart commercial from a few years ago?

How could any of us forget? Sure, some people were annoyed when this commercial came out, but the rest of us played it over and over for our co-workers, friends, and family. Daring to be different is daring to be remembered.

Don't be annoying

Speaking of memorable. While this Old Spice commercial is physically painful to listen to:

I can't stop myself. This one will stick with you and everyone else who watches it. They're stretching a little beyond those charming Isaiah Mustafa commercials and into Old Navy territory (please make it stop), but it just might work.

Name recognition is everything

In 2008, hipster author Tao Lin plastered New York City with stickers that read "Britney Spears" in bold black and white. Weird fan geek moment? Actually it was a guerilla marketing ploy for his book, Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (which has nothing to do with Britney). The ploy may have made no sense, but publisher Dennis Johnson said soon his phone was ringing off the hook with people who somehow made the connection.

The lesson here is that shouting your name from the rooftops is not the only way to get people to remember your brand for years. You may not have heard of Tao Lin before reading this post, but the stunt was weird enough that it lives on in publishing (and now Internet marketing) legend even eight years later.

Your turn

But really, other people's presents are boring. Are you ready to bet on out-of-the-box thinking this holiday season (and beyond)? Here are some rules I want you to go break to see what the rewards might be.

Write right

If your brand voice skews toward concision and you're using the Hemingway App (like everyone else is), are you really standing out? If your paragraphs are short and scannable, is anyone really remembering what you had to say? And if you're writing to an eighth-grade reading level are all those simplified words just washing over your audience? There are a lot of rules for writing. They're all made to be broken.

Bigger (content) is better

Simon Penson already covered this fallacy quite well last week in his article about content flow. Just remember that if you're aiming for big bang followed by bigger bang and then even bigger, you could be wearing your readers (and your writers) out. Try out a smaller project. See how people react.

Use storytelling

Stories are awesome. But nothing can make you crave a bulleted list of value props like sitting at a huge gathering with people shouting stories at you (ahem, the Internet). Why not A/B test storytelling versus a more straightforward style and see what converts.

The best headlines follow this formula

I'm all for a good headline. I'll even resort to clickbait (if I think the reward for the reader is high enough). But what's interesting to watch at Moz is that we'll often choose the more academic headline over the flashier one. I'm not saying you should do the same (remember, the only rule here is that you should break all the rules), but consider your audience when writing that headline.

Narrow down your CTAs

Paralysis of choice blah blah blah. If you have only one action you want your site visitor to take, then of course you don't want to confuse them with multiple other things to click. But too often we "simplify" pages by removing options people might actually want. I'm not saying you should add all those "click here" buttons back to your site, but I am saying you should think before turning your homepage into a single "buy here" button.

Make your blog posts actionable/entertaining/educational

One of the rules at the Moz Blog is that our readers like actionable posts. I'm glad we know our audience that well. But we're also not going to sit back and decide that means a theoretical post won't do well because the numbers say actionable=popular.

In fact, this post isn't especially actionable (unless that action is "go back and think about what you're doing"). Is it going to help you? I hope so. Even if it isn't what you've come to expect from us.

Publish or perish

An editorial calendar is a terrible thing to let control your life. While publishing new content on a regular basis can be a very good idea, it's also a good way to get stuck in the flywheel, churning out another interview with a supplier because that's what you do on Tuesdays.

At Moz, we recently decided to let a day pass without publishing a new blog post (long story). As much as everyone on our content team believes in putting out fewer, better posts, it was still challenging to actually follow through with this decision.

But the resulting loss of traffic was negligible.

And while we aren't eager to repeat the experiment (authors, please turn things in on time), we learned that the world does not end when we don't put up a post. Our time on page and page values actually went up. Who knew?

Remember that blogs aren't Twitter and you won't be forgotten if you already have a reputation for good content. Publish when you have something worth publishing.

Create once, publish everywhere

Using one piece of content for multiple purposes seems like a good idea until you've got a LinkedIn feed full of podcasts no one has ever listened to and a Facebook wall covered in blog posts announcements that achieved no reach.

If your gut (and your data) tell you that your audiences on different channels expect different things, find a way to get them more of what they want, don't just feed them what they have. Piece out that infographic so it shows up well on Twitter and your tweeps can get that two seconds worth of information they're looking for. Or record a fantastically fun intro for your webinar and put the intro (not the webinar) on YouTube to see if you can tease people over to your site.

Get social

Social media can be an excellent way to get traffic to your posts. And sometimes it isn't. Copyblogger is just one of the big brands who looked deep into the traffic and engagement they were getting from Facebook before deciding to close their page.

You'll have to look at your numbers to see what the right decision is for you, but when it comes to social media, doing something simply because you've been doing it forever is almost as bad as jumping on every new platform that comes out before investigating it.

Packaging should be practical

While there is always a practical aspect to packaging, once you've seen the Nike Air sneakers packaged in a bubble of air or the labels on Smirnoff's Caipiroska that peeled off like the skins of the fruits the vodka was flavored with, it becomes obvious that an investment of time and creativity in packaging (as with everything you do) can have a much bigger impact than more of the same.

Cover the next How to Train Your Dragon in dragon scales, wrap that hi-tech travel bag in special edition maps of popular destinations, or print your anti-pesticide pamphlet on seed paper that can be used to start an organic garden. Better yet, let your design team loose to create something amazing and brand new that's exactly right for your audience.

Stick to your content strategy

While strategy is a very good thing (and you've likely invested significant money and/or resources into creating that strategy), how do you really know if it's working unless you push at the edges a bit?

Know that your audience likes reading about car parts? See if they respond to a post waxing nostalgic about Knight Rider. Or introduce your organic skincare clients to some of the politics behind GMOs. You might bore someone. You might offend someone. You might also find you've made a stronger connection with some of your core customers.

Go break some rules

So if it's been awhile since you asked "why are we doing this?" or tried something new, go shake it up already. Because unless you're making Nestle Toll House cookies, chances are your recipe can still use some refinement.

Go forth and open your presents early. Enjoy the rush of innovation rather than the boredom of imitation. Then come back and tell us how it worked out and what you learned.

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The Un-Checkbox Approach to Content Marketing

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 04:18 PM PST

Posted by Isla_McKetta

You may have noticed a trend in the blog posts I've written for Moz lately:

Winning by breaking the rules

Image by laffy4k.

So in honor of the holiday season, let's unwrap our presents early and look at some marketing campaigns that won by flouting some fundamental rules of marketing.

Appeal to a wide audience

Not everyone knows who Skeletor is. And few of those love him, but Honda threw caution to the wind and let him star in their latest commercial.

Stay on message

In 2013, Oreo newsjacked the hell out of the lights going out at the Super Bowl with this now iconic tweet:

Power out? No problem. pic.twitter.com/dnQ7pOgC
— Oreo Cookie (@Oreo) February 4, 2013

Focus on your competitive advantage

I have no idea if TD Bank has a local branch, what their rates are like, if their tellers are awesome, or if they have an app that will revolutionize the way I do online banking.

But after this commercial, I want desperately to do business with them because of the core values this video speaks to. They're asking us to connect with who they are, not what they do. And it works.

Meanwhile, this commercial for the MacBook Air also skips product info and instead focuses on how people use the product rather than what's amazing about it.

At the end, I have zero idea what the competitive advantages of a MacBook are. But I want one. And I want to put stickers on it.

Don't offend anyone

Remember the Joe Boxer/Kmart commercial from a few years ago?

Don't be annoying

Speaking of memorable. While this Old Spice commercial is physically painful to listen to:

Name recognition is everything

Your turn

Write right

Bigger (content) is better

Use storytelling

The best headlines follow this formula

Narrow down your CTAs

Make your blog posts actionable/entertaining/educational

Publish or perish

But the resulting loss of traffic was negligible.

Remember that blogs aren't Twitter and you won't be forgotten if you already have a reputation for good content. Publish when you have something worth publishing.

Create once, publish everywhere

Get social

Packaging should be practical

Stick to your content strategy

Go break some rules

Go forth and open your presents early. Enjoy the rush of innovation rather than the boredom of imitation. Then come back and tell us how it worked out and what you learned.

Seth's Blog : Obedience

Obedience

How does it rank on your list?

When you think about your work or your art or the way you vote, where does obedience rank? What about your tribal connections and social choices?

When you measure the worth of someone else, how highly do you count their willingness to obey authority and the status quo?

It's baked in to our culture. Sometimes so completely that we don't even notice.

• Email to a friend •

luni, 8 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mexican Peso Another Casualty of Falling Oil Prices; Mexico Announces Intervention to Halt Decline; Bazooka Theory Revisited
Helping "Qualified" Buyers: Fannie, Freddie Detail 3%-Down Payment Mortgage Program
Off the Menu: McDonald's US Sales Unexpectedly Decline 4.6%
"You Missed Your Chance"

Mexican Peso Another Casualty of Falling Oil Prices; Mexico Announces Intervention to Halt Decline; Bazooka Theory Revisited

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 04:55 PM PST

Currencies of commodity exporter and oil producing countries have been under continual attack. The Mexican peso is the latest to feel the heat.

Mexican Peso vs. US Dollar

Peso at Two-Year Low

The Mexican Peso declined from 9.85-Per-US$ to 15.59-Per-US$ during the great financial crisis (a loss of about 37%) as oil prices plunged. Since then, the peso recovered much of that loss.

Recently, and also in conjunction with declining oil prices, the Mexican Peso declined from 12.02-Per-US$ to 14.39-Per-US$, a decline of roughly 16%.

In response, Mexico Announced Currency Intervention as Peso Weakens to Two-Year Low.

Mexico's central bank revived an intervention program designed to curb foreign-exchange volatility after the peso fell to a two-year low.

Policy makers will auction $200 million on days when the peso weakens at least 1.5 percent from the previous close, the central bank said today in a statement. A similar measure to support the local currency was put in place in November 2011 and was used just three times before ending in April last year.

The peso, which pared today's losses after the announcement, is still down 10 percent over the past six months on concern that a drop in oil prices will damp investment in the country's energy industry. The new program to support the peso surprised investors including Juan Carlos Alderete, a currency strategist at Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB in Mexico City, after Finance Minister Luis Videgaray said last week that he didn't see a need for intervention.

"I don't think it will be necessary to actually use the measure," Alderete said in a telephone interview. "It's more of a preventative one based on high market volatility."

Bazooka Theory Revisited

Apparently Alderete is a believer in the Paulson's Bazooka Theory:

"If you have a bazooka in your pocket and people know it, you probably won't have to use it." Paulson said at a July 15 Senate Banking Committee hearing."

We have seen that theory crumble to dust on numerous occasions in Greece, on Paulson's idea of forcing banks to lend, on Russian currency interventions, etc.

It's only when central banks come out blazing does the market actually take notice. Moreover, results are not guaranteed perpetually even though the Swiss intervention on the Euro has held so far.

Switzerland succeeded at suppressing the Franc vs. the Euro (assuming you really believe that constitutes success) but only because the Swiss National Bank was willing to take on all comers regardless of size. That's not a luxury Mexico has.

Finally, should the Euro collapse, Switzerland will be stuck with a massive pile of useless euro reserves at huge loss. Ironically, that possibility arguably makes the Swiss Franc one of the most overvalued currencies around.

I patiently sit holding gold, knowing full well there is going to be a massive global currency crisis at some not-so distant point. I just cannot say when, or even the country that triggers the mess. I can say the list of potential candidates where such a crisis may start grows every year.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Helping "Qualified" Buyers: Fannie, Freddie Detail 3%-Down Payment Mortgage Program

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 12:43 PM PST

Now that home prices have recovered and homes are not the bargain they were four years ago, it is fitting the parasites once again want to make homes "affordable" to the masses with low-down payment options.

Please consider Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac detail plans for 3% down-payment mortgages.

Housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Monday detailed plans to once again back mortgages with down payments as low as 3%, saying the move to make home ownership more accessible contains safeguards to protect against abuses that led to the subprime housing market crash.

"Our goal is to help additional qualified borrowers gain access to mortgages," said Andrew Bon Salle, executive vice president for single family underwriting, pricing and capital markets at Fannie Mae.

Officials said the program was designed to help credit-worthy borrowers, particularly those with low or moderate incomes, who can demonstrate the ability to repay a mortgage but lack the money needed for at least a 5% down payment.

Freddie Mac will limit its program, called Home Possible Advantage, to mortgages for first-time homebuyers. Borrowers must participate in a homebuyer education and counseling program before receiving the loan and will have to pay for private mortgage insurance.

Fannie Mae's program will be available to anyone who has not owned a primary residence for three years. Private mortgage insurance will be required but counseling and education will not.

Helping "Qualified" Buyers

Notice the statements about helping "qualified borrowers".

If you lower the qualifications to zero, everyone qualifies by definition. But is that a "help" or a debt-trap in waiting?

My Take

If you cannot afford to put 10% down on a home, then you can't afford the home.

I side with House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) who stated: "Such loans are inherently risky because the borrower has almost no financial cushion against a personal or economic downturn, vastly increasing the likelihood they will walk away from the loan once it gets significantly underwater."

Low down payment loans are "an invitation by government for industry to return to slipshod and dangerous practices that caused the mortgage meltdown in the first place and wrecked our economy."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Off the Menu: McDonald's US Sales Unexpectedly Decline 4.6%

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 11:47 AM PST

Global fast food sales are down 2.2%, their sixth consecutive monthly fall. McDonald's leads the way with a 4.6% sales decline in November, more than double the expected decline.

In its report Off the Menu, the BBC notes that like-for-like sales at McDonald's have not increased since October 2013, as smaller rivals eroded its market share.

Meanwhile, Mexican food chain Chipotle reported a 20% rise in like-for-like sales for the three months to September 30 - the third quarter of double-digit increases.

More to it Than Competition

Some blame it on the strong US dollar, but that only applies to foreign sales. People heading elsewhere? Yes, but it's easy to grow faster when you are much smaller. I blame it primarily on the cost (value if you prefer that term).

McDonald's Prices

A check of Fast Food Menu Prices shows that a Bacon Cheese Quarter Pounder Meal will set you back $6.60 in Illinois. Add in 10% sales tax for some Cook County locations and the cost per person is $7.26.

If there's two of you, the cost hits nearly $15. Care to supersize that? For a family of four?

Then there's the wait.

Build-Your-Own

It's difficult without an extremely long wait to "have it your way" at McDonald's.

My question: How is it that you can get it whatever way you want at Wendy's and Burger King without a wait, but you cannot at McDonald's?

That's long been a mystery to me. At any rate, the Consumerist just reported McDonald's Bringing Build-Your-Own Burger Option To 2,000 Locations.

Here's the catch:

"Don't expect comparable menu prices for your bespoke burger. At one location visited by USA Today, a customized burger with medium fries and a drink cost $8.29, while the pre-made burger meal only comes in at $5 on the regular menu."

Is that supposed to increase sales or drive everyone away?

"One of the common complaints from McDonald's franchisees is that their corporate bosses have been forcing new and expensive menu options on them. If the company decides to keep rolling out the Create Your Taste option at more eateries, you can expect some push-back from franchisees with smaller stores who don't have the space for the additional ingredients or room for ordering kiosks."

Breakfast

The only time I ever eat at McDonald's is for breakfast, and even then, only when I am out of town. Moreover, at 10:00 AM sharp (10:30 in some locations), McDonald's cuts off the breakfast menu. It's not often I am up and about and finished blogging by then.

Enter the Unions

Unions demand $15 an hour. They claim they cannot live on $7.25. I sympathize, but who's to blame for that?

It's not the stores. Sales are already in decline. Make the minimum wage $15 an hour and what is that burger going to cost?

Besides, most McDonald's stores are franchises, semi-independently run (with big brother Ronald making sure franchisees obey the necessary rules).

I suspect many locations are barely profitable, or profitable only because of cheap family labor.

Unions claim higher minimum wages will not cost jobs. The claim defies common sense. If unions want to blame someone, they ought to picket the Fed for inane inflation policy, not McDonalds.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"You Missed Your Chance"

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 12:39 AM PST

Check out this Bloomberg silliness by writers Andrea Wong and Liz Capo McCormick: You Missed the Chance to Buy the Dollar.

Anyone who was waiting until after today's U.S. employment report to get in cheaply on the dollar rally probably blew that chance.

Trading patterns were showing as recently as three days ago that the five-month rally that has taken the greenback to multiyear highs against many of its counterparts was losing momentum and strategists were saying gains would slow with the absence of any additional catalysts before year-end. Those same measures are now suggesting that the dollar's ascension into 2015 is looking unchallenged.

"People had thought we'll get some pullbacks in the dollar and we'd get some better levels to buy," Niall O'Connor, a technical analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said by phone. "The price actions today have been impressive. We see a higher risk we can extend" through further levels.

"The technical breakdown we saw this week in the euro effectively says the currency has resumed its downtrend," said MacNeil Curry, Bank of America's head of technical strategy. "We expect further weakness in the euro and dollar gains to persist. Another dollar correction may happen down the road or in 2015, but at this state in the game the trend is still pretty sizable" for dollar appreciation.

"You have the interest rate support, there's a lot of underlying foundation in this move," Brad Bechtel, managing director of Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a phone interview Dec. 3.

Goldman Sachs forecast last month the dollar will rally 7.1 percent to 130 yen in 12 months and 6.5 percent to $1.15 per euro, eventually to parity in 2017. Morgan Stanley estimated the U.S. currency will rise to 127 yen and $1.12 per euro by the end of next year.

Too Late!

That article reminds me of the nonsensical announcement "It's Too Late".

Rah Rah Sis Boom Bah

At first glance, the headline is not all that ridiculous. After all, many bears have been pronouncing the death of the dollar for what now seems like forever. I took the other side of the coin.

When hyperinflationists predicted the dollar would go to zero, I took the other side of the debate and said buy the dollar.

Hyperinflation is still preposterous of course, but the time to buy the dollar was long ago, not on some imperceptible dip a few days before the payroll report.

Chance to Sell

Goldman Sachs sees a "7.1% rally". Bank of America sees "pretty sizable dollar appreciation", etc., etc.

Such one-sided bullishness is the overwhelming consensus. I believe the reversal will be spectacular not only in the dollar, but in dollar-related equities.

So, if indeed you "missed your chance to buy", and you did (not a few days ago but months ago), what about the opportunity to sell (short)?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Dads Who Are Doing It Right
Driver smashes $1M McLaren P1 one Day after picking it up
Miss Tiffany's Universe Is Very Different From Normal Pageants

Dads Who Are Doing It Right

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 11:42 AM PST

If you want to know what you need to do to be a good dad, you just have to take a look at what these guys are doing because they nailed it.

Driver smashes $1M McLaren P1 one Day after picking it up

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 10:43 AM PST

This guy destroyed his brand new million dollar 2015 McLaren P1. The worst part is that he didn't even get to enjoy it before it was destroyed because he crashed it the same exact day he bought it.

The 27-year-old appears to have lost control of the vehicle after hitting a wet spot and smashed into the guardrail.

Miss Tiffany's Universe Is Very Different From Normal Pageants

Posted: 08 Dec 2014 10:27 AM PST

Miss Tiffany's Universe isn't the type of pageant that caters to finding the most beautiful girl in the world. This pageant wants to find the most beautiful transgender person in the world.