Central Perk

duminică, 28 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Spain to Issue €55 Billion in New Debt, 72% to Roll Over Existing Debt; Interest Rate Perspective

Posted: 28 Dec 2014 01:24 PM PST

Spain's regional and local governments are struggling to pay back debts. The central government has not made much progress either.

El Economista reports 72% of Treasury Issuance in 2015 to Refinance CCAA and Municipalities.

Of estimated €55 billion debt increase for 2015, 72 percent of that amount will be to regional governments and municipalities through new mechanisms created to ease the burden of regional debt and also provide liquidity to local authorities for other policies (through the Fund Management, targeting the most indebted and Economic Promotion Fund for sustainable investments).

The €55 billion debt increase announced Friday is the same as last year, but is €8 billion superior to that which was announced last September.

Debt Increase Year by Year

Guru Huky has some interesting charts in his post Spain will Increase National Debt by €55 Billion.

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Since 2008, Spanish debt has increased by €600 billion.

Guru notes "Since 2012 we had a tax increase that completely screwed the middle class of this country. And yet we continue with a cruising speed of new debt generation of more than €50 billion a year."

Interest Rate Perspective

click on chart for sharper image

In spite of the fact that yield on the 10-year government bond is a record low 1.67%, Spain tacks on more debt year after year.

For comparison purposes, the yield on 10-Year US notes is 2.25%.

Like Japan, Europe cannot stand higher interest rates.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : But what if this was your only job?

But what if this was your only job?

Okay, I know you have competing priorities and that your organization has grown and that maybe this isn't the most important thing on your agenda any more...

The thing is, your competition might actually act like the thing that they're doing is their only job. They might believe that in fact, treating this customer as if she's the only person in the world is worth it. That fixing that squeaky door, addressing that two-year old bug in the software, or taking one extra moment to look someone in the eye and talking to her with respect is worth it.

We don't become mediocre all at once, and we rarely do it on purpose. Instead, we start believing that the entire project is our job, not this one thing, this one thing we used to do so brilliantly.

The day the organization installs the, "your call is very important to us..." message is the day that they announce to themselves who they are becoming. Customers rarely care about your priorities.

Getting bigger is supposed to make us more effective and efficient. Alas, the way to get there isn't by doing what you used to do, but less well.

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sâmbătă, 27 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Russia Debt One Grade Above Junk With Downgrades Coming, How Likely is Default?

Posted: 27 Dec 2014 12:34 PM PST

All three rating agencies are expected to downgrade Russia's debt to junk soon and bailouts to Russian banks are on the rise, but how likely is default?

The Financial Times reports ...

Russia trebled the size of its bailout of troubled lender Trust Bank to Rbs99bn ($1.9bn) on Friday, laying bare the growing financial fallout from its currency crisis and the slump in the price of oil, its main export.

The rapidly rising cost makes the rescue of Trust bank, which foundered as the rouble collapsed early last week, the second-largest seen in Russia. It has now consumed a tenth of the money earmarked by the government last week for bank bailouts.

The authorities also said they would spend Rbs320bn ($5.9bn) propping up two other banks. Anton Siluanov, finance minister, said state-owned VTB, the second-largest lender by assets, could receive Rbs100bn before the end of this year and another Rbs150bn in 2015, while Gazprombank could be allocated Rbs70bn.

Trust Bank was the first financial institution to fall victim to the currency crisis as it suffered a run on deposits by customers panicked by the steep drop in the rouble's value, which at one point on December 16 plummeted to an all-time low of 80 against the dollar.

The central bank said that the state-run Deposit Insurance Agency would provide Trust Bank with up to Rbs99bn. It would give an additional Rbs28bn loan to Bank Otkritie, one of Russia's largest private lenders, to restructure Trust Bank, with the two then merging by the end of 2020.

Foreign Reserves

Although US and EU sanctions make it difficult for Russian companies to obtain financing, and although the Russian banking system is a mess, sovereign default will only occur if Russia cannot meet its foreign debt obligations.

Russia has about $4000 billion in foreign currency reserves, lowest since 2009, but foreign currency obligations for 2015 total about $120 billion.

On that score, the immediate risk seems slim. In fact, one has to wonder if the impending downgrade to junk is politically motivated.

Regardless, the US severely underestimates the fallout, especially to Europe, should default occur.

Sanctions are economic madness and Obama's claim they are working is preposterous. For further discussion, please see Russia Under Attack: Letter from CEO of Genoil to CEO of JPMorgan Chase on US Foreign Policy Blowback

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com