Central Perk

luni, 4 mai 2015

The Twitch Phenomenon: Why Live Streaming Is Worth Your Time - Moz Blog

The Twitch Phenomenon: Why Live Streaming Is Worth Your Time

Posted on: Monday 04 May 2015 — 02:13

It's safe to say that streaming video content online is quickly becoming the most accessible way to consume entertainment. The way we enjoy our favorite movies and television shows has been increasingly shifting towards uninterrupted (and possibly unhealthy) periods of 'binge watching'. Easy and affordable alternatives like Netflix, Hulu, and HBO Go offer the option to forego traditional cable services altogether.

Portlandia, "One Moore Episode"

As the online video streaming movement grows, the concept of live streaming is also gaining popularity, and both these trends make a convincing case for considering a video-based content strategy to reach your target market. By far the best example of this is Amazon's newest acquisition, Twitch.tv.

What is Twitch.tv?

Unless you happen to be an online gamer or addicted to TechCrunch, you may not have had much experience with the site. It is a platform for gamers to broadcast their gameplay live online while others watch and actively participate with chat.

If you haven't heard about the site's boast-worthy statistics you may be wondering why you should even care. You're not wrong to be skeptical; gamers watching other gamers play games online most likely has nothing to do with your business or marketing.

However, the conclusions that can be drawn from Twitch.tv's annual reports about the future of online and video marketing are worth some level of consideration and provide some evidence that live video streaming could be the next big channel for engaging with your audience.

Why should you care?

Here is a quick breakdown of Twitch.tv's engagement from their 2014 report.

Pretty amazing stats when you consider that they launched in 2011. Even when you take into account that the main demographic of users are web-savvy online gamers, those numbers are impressive.

This statistic from their 2013 report, though, is what I find most interesting. Incredibly rapid engagement growth from 2012 on top of an unbelievable average user time on site (106 minutes watched each day). From a marketing perspective, this is what I consider to be a big opportunity.

The following chart shows the average time on site for other top social media sites. To come anywhere near the numbers from Twitch, it would require a significant number of repeat visits (20+ average) at these rates:

Since these two reports are not directly comparable, I thought it was valuable to translate some data gathered using Google's DoubleClick Ad Planner from back in 2011 to show some sort of comparison. (Granted, these have been converted from unique visitors' monthly time spent on Facebook (15.55 hours) and YouTube (5.83 hours). (source)

Now, you might be thinking that these statistics are not all that surprising for a site focused on live experiences. After all, we've known for some time now that a live broadcast will often produce a significant increase in viewership. By virtue of its unpredictability alone a larger audience is something to be expected. And let's be honest, it's one of the main reasons why TV news is so interesting.

How can I win with live streaming?

Entertainment is by far the most common live stream focus. Gaming, sports, music, tv shows, news, and events are found often, but there are also channels for technology, education, and even religion. There are also plenty of live animal streams. Mostly puppies and kittens, but also wildlife streams that might make good communities for environmentally focused marketing goals.

Coming up with creative ways to implement live-stream content into your marketing strategy might be difficult, but it is certainly not impossible, and you might just be surprised with the results. Keep in mind that the scope of your broadcast can start out small (just like any other content strategy), and the content of your feed could be just about anything that can be translated into a video format. Even this post could be converted into a live stream as a simple discussion. For the most part, all you need is a webcam and a good microphone. To get started, take a look at these options for producing live stream content for your business.

Youtube.com

YouTube is probably the easiest and most well-known platform to use for integrating live stream content. It offers solutions to quickly set up a live stream through your channel as long as it is verified and in good standing. There is a live chat feature that can be disabled if you so choose, although most live streams really do go well with an engaging live chat. YouTube is the perfect place to start up a live stream project at little to no cost. You most likely already have a channel and an audience to which you can start broadcasting.

Livestream.com

Another option worth considering is Livestream.com, which is great for broadcasting any kind of live event. For the most part, I have seen high quality productions on this site. Consider this one if you already have a video-based content strategy and a sizable following that is eager to consume your broadcasts.

Ustream.tv

This site is a bit different in that it offers solutions for a variety of high-quality live streaming options, even production services and a video advertising platform focused on lead generation. There is a variety of content with categories like sports, gaming, news, music, and general entertainment. Ustream has a wider range of content than livestream; you will find streams for technology, education, religion and even wildlife here, among others. Ustream also offers a basic ad-supported broadcasting option which would be perfect for an organization that is just starting to develop live stream content.

Notice how Ustream has no qualms with adverts!

Streaming through Twitter

If you are already using Twitter for your online marketing strategy, you should consider using something like Periscope or Meerkat to develop live-streaming engagement with your followers. These services are also a great way to kickstart the use of Twitter in your marketing arsenal and start to build a following if you haven't done so already.

You can give exclusive previews of products, how-to tutorials, a quick tour of your facilities, or show off your services. And, of course, you will have the potential to respond in real time to feedback from viewers. At the moment, both Periscope and Meerkat can only be used on iPhones, but Meerkat is developing an Android version.

Focused streaming sites

Let's not forget about the more focused platforms. Online communities that are ready and willing to engage with live streams do already exist outside the realm of gaming. They are worth exploring if you are working to promote something relevant to your customers interests.

Picarto.tv is for artists and graphic designers to show others how they do those amazing Photoshop things they do.

Chew.tv is a platform for DJs to play live sets to other DJs and music lovers.

Livecoding.tv is fairly new but given the nature of programmers there are almost always a few live streams on. This is a great place for newcomers and seasoned programmers to learn about coding by watching the experts in action.

Talktochef.com is a really cool site that lets people engage directly with experienced chefs. If you have anything to do with the food industry, there is likely value to be gained from using this site.

Cookstream.tv is also just getting started, but seems like a promising venue for those within the food industry.

Not ready to start live streaming? You can still gain insights by participating!

Even if you're not ready to live stream your own content, you can find value by doing a little live stream research or even getting involved in a relevant broadcast. Here are some things to think about during your search:

Get insights into popular topics just by scanning for high viewer count streams. If you market for or create content about anything related to animals, you might consider producing some blog posts about eagles; for some reason people seem to like watching them, as I found a number of eagle nest live feeds, some with over a thousands viewers at a time.
Take advantage of relevant live streams that receive significant viewers and get ideas for creating similar content in any form. Topics that resonate with viewers on live streams will most likely be easily translated into pre-recorded video or written content. If I were marketing for anything related to billiards, for example, I would check out the Accu-Stats On Location channel at Ustream that have over a thousand followers and had achieved over 250,000 views. Just from watching a few minutes I noticed that while they stream a live pool and billiards tournament they are also constantly raffling off prizes. A great idea for some social media content might be to create raffle targeting people who are interested in pool and billiards.
Listen to what viewers are saying on relevant streams. Broadcasters provide great insight as to what sort of content you could be creating but the viewers do as well. Part of the beauty of live streaming is that the viewers are constantly engaging via live chat while they watch. This provides a great way to get direct insight about your target audience. Chatting with viewers can provide a direct line to potential customers. Just make sure to follow the channel rules and avoid blatant promotional spam.
Live streams also offer opportunities for outreach to their broadcasters. Just as popular industry bloggers make great influencers, so do broadcasters. You could try to get in touch with a broadcaster to discuss some form of collaboration; this would likely work in the same manner as a collaboration with an industry blogger.

Start researching & streaming

I like to think of online marketers as masters of the interwebs, and as such I feel it's important to be at least aware of (if not knowledgeable about) every realm. It may not be as popular outside of the gaming space, but I anticipate the near future will bring live streaming growth in other focused markets. As this content becomes more prevalent, the applications toward online marketing will become more and more obvious. By learning how to navigate and identify relevant live stream communities you will be ready to get involved and apply them to your marketing efforts, whether that means starting up a broadcast of your own or collaborating with existing broadcasters.

Lastly, and there may not be much in this on a marketing level but I thought it was well worth sharing: Definitely one of my favorite streams so far, if this doesn't convince you that live streaming (and Animal Planet) is awesome, nothing will...

Live video by Animal Planet L!ve

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Seth's Blog : Are you certain that you're trapped?

Are you certain that you're trapped?

To be actually trapped is to have no options, no choices, no possible outcomes other than the one you fear.

Most of the time, when we think we're trapped, we're actually unhappy with the short-term consequences of making a choice. Make the choice, own the outcome and you can start in a new place.

This is often frightening and painful, which is one reason it might be easier to pretend that we're actually trapped.

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duminică, 3 mai 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

China Manufacturing PMI in Contraction: New Orders and Operating Conditions Decline at Strongest Rate in a Year

Posted: 03 May 2015 10:18 PM PDT

More signs of a global slowdown surface in the latest China Manufacturing PMI where operating conditions and new orders decline at fastest pace in a year.

Chinese manufacturers saw a further deterioration in operating conditions in April, with total new orders declining at the strongest pace for a year while production levels stagnated. Data suggested that relatively weak domestic demand was the main driver of reduced new business, as new export work picked up in April (albeit marginally). Consequently, employment in the sector continued to decline, while purchasing activity fell at the quickest rate in 13 months. Meanwhile, deflationary pressures intensified in April, with both input and output costs falling at accelerated rates.

Adjusted for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single - figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – remained below the neutral 50.0 value at 48.9 in April, down from 49.6 in March. This signalled a deterioration in the health of the sector for the second successive month. Moreover, the pace of deterioration was the strongest seen in a year. Total new business placed at Chinese manufacturers declined for the second month in a row in April. Furthermore, the rate of contraction quickened since March to the strongest in a year

Weaker demand conditions led companies to become more cautious with regard to their production schedules, with firms leaving their output unchanged in April. This contrasted with increased output in the opening three months of the year. Purchasing activity meanwhile declined for the first time since January. Though moderate, the rate of reduction was the quickest since March 2014, with a number of respondents attributing the fall to fewer new orders.

On the price front, average cost burdens faced by Chinese goods producers fell for the ninth successive month. Moreover, the rate of deflation accelerated to a sharp pace. In line with the trend for input costs, companies cut their selling prices again in April and at a solid rate.

China Manufacturing PMI

If you are looking for a silver lining in the details, there isn't one.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Venezuela to Nationalize All Food Distribution, Increase Public Wages 30%

Posted: 03 May 2015 08:06 AM PDT

To combat food shortages caused by socialist policies including nationalization of half the nation's food supply, Venezuela to Nationalize All Food Distribution.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has promised to nationalise food distribution in the South American nation beset with record shortages of basic goods, runaway inflation and an escalating economic crisis.

During a rally on Friday, on International Workers' Day, the socialist leader allowed a union activist to ask for the nationalisation of food and essential-item distribution.

Various estimates suggest the government already controls about half of the country's food distribution, but that hasn't stopped record shortages in shops and markets.

Venezuela is struggling with a recession, 68.5% annual inflation and severe shortages of the basic goods that it relies on oil money to import.

On any given day, people in Venezuela can wait hours to get some subsidised milk, cooking oil, milk or flour, if they can be found at all.

Maduro's government is strapped for cash in the face of a global supply glut that caused oil prices to collapse by more than 50 percent between June and January.

Nonetheless, Maduro also announced a 30% increase in public wages on Friday.

Way to a New Venezuela Home

In other news, Woman Who Threw mango at Maduro Rewarded With New Home.

A woman who bashed President Nicolas Maduro on the head with a mango has been promised a new house for her troubles in a surreal tropical tale that has gone viral in Venezuela.

The 52-year-old president was driving a bus through a crowd last weekend in the central state of Aragua when someone in the crowd tossed the fruit at him.

"It says: 'If you can, call me'," the former bus driver said later during the week, as he displayed the fruit with a name and phone number scrawled on it on television.

"Marleny Olivo had a problem with her house. [Officials] called her. She was scared. She couldn't believe it was true. ... I've approved an apartment for you, Marleny, as part of the 'Grand Venezuelan Housing Mission'," he added, vowing to eat the mango.

"If for for a mango they give you apartments, then you know what to do: throw him a pineapple!" quipped Dolar Today, a website that quotes the black market for dollars and is hated by Maduro.

Apparently the way to combat inflation is to grant a 30% increase in wages. The way to a new house is to throw fruit with your name on it at the president.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : (re)Radical

(re)Radical

At the congregation down the street, they're doing things the way they've done them for the last few hundred years. Every week, people come, attracted by familiarity, by the family and friends around them, part of a tribe.

And just past that building is another one, a different tribe, where the tradition is more than a thousand years old.

This is not so different from that big company that used to be an internet startup, but all the original team members have long left the building. Work tomorrow has a lot in common with work yesterday, and the safety of it all is comforting.

Che, Jefferson, Edison, Ford... most of these radicals would not recognize the institutions that have been built over time.

The question each of us has to answer about the institution we care about is: Does this place exist to maintain and perpetuate the status quo, or am I here to do the work that the radical founder had in mind when we started?

First principles. The quest for growth, or for change, or for justice. The ability, perhaps the desire, to seek out things that feel risky.

All of us are part of organizations that were started by outliers, by radicals, by people who cared more about making a difference than fitting in.

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sâmbătă, 2 mai 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

French Unemployment At New Record Highs: Whom Do They Blame?

Posted: 02 May 2015 07:28 PM PDT

While ECB president Mario Draghi brags his economic policy of negative interest rates is working, I ask for whom?

On April 23, 2015 I noted Spain's Unemployment Rate Increases to 23.7%; 114,300 Jobs Vanish in First Quarter, Public Sector Jobs Rise.

Let's now turn our attention to France.

December 24, 2014 BBC: French jobless total at new record high
January 28, 2015 France24: French unemployment hits new record high in December
March 6, 2014 UPI: Unemployment in France hits 16-year-high; still rising

France Unemployment Rate

Flashback January 27, 2014 Mish: France Unemployment Hits New Record High; Hollande's November Pledge Reviewed

In November, French president Francois Hollande announced he had met his electoral pledge to halt the rise in joblessness by the end of 2013.

No one with any economic sense believed it.

Today in the face of a new record high unemployment rate, Hollande says unemployment has "stabilised".

Whom Do The French Blame?

Via translation from Les Echos, May 2, 2015: Poll shows 75% of French Do Not Expect Improvement in Unemployment until 2017.

Recent unemployment figures reached a new record in March with 3.51 million of job seekers in mainland France without activity. Three quarters of respondents think that unemployment will not decrease by the end of the five year term of Francois Hollande, according to a poll for Odoxa iTELE and Le Parisien published on Friday.

As for the main cause of unemployment, 34% of the French blame "companies that prefer to increase their profits rather than hiring" while 31% blame "government inefficiency". 21% blame "blockages in French society" and 14% "unfavorable economic conditions".

Question for Draghi

I have a question for Mario Draghi: Is this what it means to have your negative interest rate policies "work"?

One cannot blame the ECB for French nonsense. Yet, one can blame the ECB for stupidity in attempting to solve via economic policy, something that cannot possibly be solved that way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Miracle Twinkies Comeback

Posted: 02 May 2015 10:50 AM PDT

I have written about Twinkies three times before.

Recall that in November of 2012, Hostess, the owner of Twinkies, Ding Dongs, Ho-Ho's and other sweet treats gave an ultimatum to 15,000 union workers to accept pay cuts or get fired and lose their pensions as well.

Flashback November 15, 2012: Hostess to Liquidate if Bakers' Strike Continues Through Thursday; End of Twinkies Hours Away?

It's do or die for 18,000 Hostess workers including 5,000 in the bakers' union.

Only fools would voluntarily vote for liquidation, but with the clock ticking down to mere hours to come to agreement, it appears the fools will win the day.

The bakers' union would rather have no job than reduced wages. Lovely. Good luck finding another job in this environment.

I have little sympathy for those who voluntarily walk away from their jobs in these trying times.

However, this is probably not the end of Twinkies, Ding-Dongs, or Ho-Ho's.

Not that anyone needs to be eating such non-nutritional junk food, but those names and recipes will likely be sold and produced elsewhere, probably at a lower cost to consumers, especially if the buyer does not have to deal with the bakers' union.

Flashback November 18, 2012: Chris Christie Provides Perfect Setup for Saturday Night Live

At a recent news conference, Christie was asked a question about Twinkies. He responded ...

"Really, seriously, you're not asking me about Hostess Twinkies are ya? What's the next question? I'm on Saturday Night Live enough. You think you're getting me behind this microphone having me talk about Twinkies? This is a setup man, I know it."

The bottom line is the union would not give into demands and the company filed a motion last Friday to liquidate. Shutting down the company will mean the loss of 18,500 jobs (less any jobs picked up by buyers of brands Twinkies, Ding-Dongs, Wonder Bread, Ho-Ho's etc.)

There is plenty of blame to go around, including untenable wages and benefits, leveraged debt, untenable management salaries etc.

Flashback November 22, 2012: Hostess Fires 15,000 Workers in Liquidation; Twinkies Silliness From Readers

The first step in liquidation will be the firing of 15,000 workers including the closure of 33 bakeries, 565 distribution centers, approximately 5,500 delivery routes and 570 bakery outlet stores.

At least a dozen readers sent emails in response to my previous two posts on Twinkies.

One misguided soul from the Netherlands wrote "Your article on the bankruptcy of Hostess is so extremely biased. I am NOT surprised because you're ALWAYS bashing the unions."

Miracle Comeback

Now that we have the backdrop out of the way, please consider Twinkie's Miracle Comeback: The Untold, Inside Story of a $2 Billion Feast

Walk in the door of Hostess Brands' flagship bakery in Emporia, Kansas and your first thought is: What a dump. The former front office for the bakery that pumps out classic American treats like golden Twinkies and swirl-topped Cup Cakes is a series of dank, near-empty rooms with scuffed, oatmeal-color linoleum floors, water-stained ceiling panels and a jumble of mismatched office furniture that looks like it was picked up off the curb.

This grim wing of the Hostess plant is a leftover from the old Hostess–the one that debt, pension costs and mismanagement shuttered in 2012. But throw on a hairnet and pass on to the newly rehabilitated factory floor, and it makes sense why billionaire C. Dean Metropoulos, Apollo Global senior partner Andy Jhawar and Kansas Governor Sam Brownback are standing here, breathing in the sticky sweet air on a foggy April morning.

The new factory is bright and clean. Tight rows of Twinkies m arch along the $20 million Auto Bake system with the precision of Soviet soldiers in a May Day parade. Yellow robotic arms, which look like they should be welding Teslas rather than boxing Twinkies, stack snacks with hypnotic rhythm. This 500-person plant produces more than 1 million Twinkies a day, 400 million a year. That's 80% of Hostess' total output–output that under the old regime required 14 plants and 9,000 employees. And it's about to get more efficient: Metropoulos and Jhawar just installed a second Auto–Bake system, this one for Cup Cakes, and the governor is here to cut the ribbon.

Now, just two years after buying the shuttered company, they sit atop what will likely be a $2 billion win. "They've worked magic with their business concept and have made Hostess one of the most efficient and effective companies in the entire food industry," says Joseph Gatto, a partner at Perella Weinberg, who brokered the sale to Metropoulos and Apollo.

"People walk up and thank me for bringing back Twinkies," says Metropoulos, who has previously rebuilt brands like Bumble Bee Tuna, Chef Boyardee and Pabst Blue Ribbon. "No one ever thanked me for saving Vlasic pickles."

The problem should now be pretty clear to everyone: mismanagement coupled with inane union work rules and benefits. I thought the problem was clear in November 2012.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : The angry teenager (your customer?, your boss?)

The angry teenager (your customer?, your boss?)

You've probably met one. You might have a boss who is one, or customers who act that way. Someone doesn't have to be in high school to act like a teenager. (Teenagers are supposed to act like that, it's their job. When adults act like this, though, it can get really ugly.)

The angry teenager believes that rage is always justified. He rejects the rational approach, replacing it with hot flashes of belief instead. Facts matter little when they can so easily be replaced by emotion. The angry teenager doesn't want to talk through an issue, he just wants to yell about it. He doesn't care so much about solving a problem as he does bathing in it, embracing it and wallowing in self-pity (loudly).

Show an angry teenager a way to grow and he'll head the other direction, cursing you for rejecting his anger. Ask an angry teenager to rationally explain his proposed solution and he'll hate you for wanting practical steps. Laugh at the unreasonableness of his demands and he'll get angrier still, because being laughed at is his greatest fear.

It's really easy to find an angry mob, really easy to embrace the momentary power that comes from harnessing the fear and disillusionment and angst of the disenfranchised. The challenge is that the mob is impatient and impractical and afraid. It's not a scalable way to get things done.

We all have to deal with angry teenagers now and then. It's not fun or even productive, but if you're smart and patient, you can outlast them. Picking a fight isn't a practical solution, of course, because they're better at fighting than you are.

Whatever you do, though, don't let an angry teenager be in charge.

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vineri, 1 mai 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Weekend Diversion - Golf Trick Shots
ISM Disappoints, Led by Decline in Employment
Construction Spending "Once Again Defies Expectations" Much Weaker Than Expected; Four Reasons Economists Perplexed
Investigating the GDP Deflator: Wildly Differing Results Depending on Your Choice

Weekend Diversion - Golf Trick Shots

Posted: 01 May 2015 07:04 PM PDT

It is amazing how good people can get at things. I would be hard pressed to even think about setting up some of these shots.

Even if you are not a golfer you may appreciate this video.

Link if video does not play: Bryan Brothers Golf Trick Shots.

I like to golf. Breaking 90 is an excellent game for me.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ISM Disappoints, Led by Decline in Employment

Posted: 01 May 2015 01:03 PM PDT

In addition to construction estimates missing by a mile today, ISM also disappointed, albeit not by much.

The Bloomberg Consensus estimate for ISM was 52.0 but the report was a slightly weaker 51.5. It's the details that are interesting.

There's a new unwanted wrinkle in the ISM report and that's weakness in employment, holding down the headline index to 51.5 in April, unchanged from March. Employment has been holding strong in other reports -- but not in the ISM report where the index is down nearly 2 points to a sub-50 level of 48.3 to indicate month-to-month contraction. This is the first time this reading is in contraction since May 2013 and it's the lowest reading since all the way back in September 2009.

Other indications, however, are positive. New orders actually rose in the month, up 1.7 points to 53.5, and export orders are above 50 for the first time this year, at 51.5 for a 4.0 point gain. Production, at 56.0, is especially strong as are import orders at 54.0 for a 1.5 point gain. Prices, as in other reports, remain in contraction, little changed at 40.5.

And there's solid breadth in the report with 15 of 18 industries showing composite growth in the month with strength in the auto industry specifically cited. This report is mixed though the decline in employment won't be raising expectations for next week's employment report for April.

Note on Diffusion Indices

I commented on employment in Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Negative Second Month.

It's important to note that a single firm hiring one person will counterbalance another firm firing 50. It's entirely possible employment is not as strong as it looks (not that 7 is a particularly strong number in the first place).

Some of these subcomponents are mostly noise. The overall trend of all the reports in general is not noise. The baseline for zero growth in the ISM is 50, for the regional Fed reports it is 0.

ISM Details

Let's investigate all the details of today's report straight from the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® released this morning.

Index	Apr	Mar	PP Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend in Months
PMI®	51.5	5.1.5	0	Growing	Same	28
New Orders	53.5	51.8	1.7	Growing	Faster	29
Production	56.0	53.8	2.2	Growing	Faster	32
Employment	48.3	50	-1.7	Contracting	From Unchanged	19
Supplier Deliveries	50.1	50.5	-0.4	Slowing	Slower	23
Inventories	49.5	51.5	-2.0	Contracting	From Growing	1
Customers' Inventories	44.0	45.5	-1.5	Too Low	Faster	5
Prices	40.5	39.0	1.5	Decreasing	Slower	6
Backlog of Orders	49.5	49.5	0	Contracting	Same	2
Exports	51.5	47.5	4.0	Growing	From Contracting	1
Imports	54.0	52.6	1.5	Growing	Faster	27

All in all the report was about as expected. The details conflict with Richmond Fed and Dallas Fed. The former above. For the latter see 6th Straight Negative New Orders Reading for Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey.

As with the Richmond Fed, the Dallas Fed reported a slight increase in employment. Many of the individual numbers are likely noise.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Construction Spending "Once Again Defies Expectations" Much Weaker Than Expected; Four Reasons Economists Perplexed

Posted: 01 May 2015 10:58 AM PDT

Economists have been overly optimistic on the majority of economic reports for going on six months.

Today the Bloomberg Consensus estimate for construction spending was for a 0.4% gain. The actual result was a decline of 0.6%.

Construction spending once again defied expectations. March construction spending dropped 0.6 percent against expectations of an increase of 0.4 percent. On the year, construction spending was up 2.0 percent, down from February's annual increase of 2.7 percent. Both residential and public building declined. While weather can still be blamed for some of the decline, a basic weakness in the building sector was apparent.

Private residential spending dropped 1.6 percent on the month with both single family and multi-family homes declined. In addition, residential construction excluding new homes, which captures home remodeling, also declined after gains in the previous two months. Nonresidential private construction provided a ray of sunshine -- it advanced 1.0 percent on gains in the office, manufacturing, and health care sectors.

Public construction was down for a third straight month to its lowest level since February 2014. State and local government spending, the much larger portion of public construction, dropped in both February and March while Federal Government construction retreated after an 8.6 percent surge in the previous month.

Construction Spending

Construction Spending Percent Change From Year Ago

Four Key Reasons Economists are Perplexed

Weakness is "transitory" as the Fed explained on Wednesday. For discussion, please see Fed Cites Weather, "Transitory" Factors in FOMC Statement; No Hat Tricks; What About Consumer Sentiment?
Clearly the economy could use more Walmarts and McDonald's as there is not yet one on every corner. Forget about the fact that wages are going up and that will damper earnings and reduce the desire to open marginal stores. See Employment Compensation Costs (Wages and Benefits) Jump in First Quarter.
Millennials working multiple part-time jobs will soon buy a new home thanks to rise in hourly wage to $12.
We certainly need to build more public schools as retiring boomers will be going back to 8th grade en masse.

Those key points undoubtedly explain why economists are so perplexed with all this weakness.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Investigating the GDP Deflator: Wildly Differing Results Depending on Your Choice

Posted: 01 May 2015 12:46 AM PDT

As noted in Real Q1 GDP 0.2% vs. Consensus 1.0%; Disaster in the Details I got the first quarter GDP forecast details correct.

However, a bit of self-assessment with differing GDP deflators shows my prediction of close to zero growth could easily have looked rather silly.

I asked Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives what the GDP would have looked like using various deflators:

GDP (Implicit GDP Deflator)
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Shadowstats (Williams' Alternate CPI)

Charts are shown below.

Both Doug and I consider Shadowstats absurd, but we include it because many follow the number. For a recent critique of the measure please see Deconstructing and Debunking Shadowstats.

clock on any chart for sharper image

GDP Implicit Deflator (Official GDP)

GDP with PCE as Deflator

GDP with CPI as Deflator

GDP with Shadowstats CPI as Deflator

Results

GDP (Implicit GDP Deflator): 0.2%
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures): 2.2%
CPI (Consumer Price Index): 3.3%
Shadostats (Williams' Alternate CPI): -1.2%

Defending on your price deflator, GDP was between -1.2% and +3.3%. If you toss out Shadowstats, then the range is 0.2% to 3.3%.

That's still a damn wide range. People accuse the BEA all the time of manipulating the deflator to make things look good, but if they easily could have done that this month for far better results.

Over time, GDP is highest with the PCE and GDP implicit deflators. At least the BEA is consistent.

Mean GDP

GDP (Implicit GDP Deflator): 3.26%
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures): 3.32%
CPI (Consumer Price Index): 2.93%
Shadostats (Williams' Alternate CPI): 0.79%

Next quarter, because of rising energy prices, deflating GDP by the CPI will likely yield worse results than the GDP deflator. Some people will criticize the BEA because of it, while remaining silent about this quarter.

As it stands, rising energy prices and the strong dollar will place downward pressure on second quarter GDP no matter which deflator one uses.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

luni, 4 mai 2015

The Twitch Phenomenon: Why Live Streaming Is Worth Your Time - Moz Blog

What is Twitch.tv?

Why should you care?