marți, 30 iunie 2015

Seth's Blog : What happens when things go wrong?

What happens when things go wrong?

Service resilience is too often overlooked. Most organizations don't even have a name for it, don't measure it, don't plan for it.

I totally understand our focus on putting on a perfect show, on delighting people, on shipping an experience that's wonderful.

But how do you and your organization respond/react when something doesn't go right?

Because that's when everyone is paying attention.

       

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luni, 29 iunie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Mr. "Lie When It's Serious" Juncker, Lectures Greece On the Truth; Coordinated Meddling

Posted: 29 Jun 2015 07:28 PM PDT

Irony of the Day

In a bitter 40 minute lecture, European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, lectures Greece on the "truth".

Other than being a pompous buffoon, Jean-Claude Juncker is most famous for his statement "When it becomes serious, you have to lie".

I believe it's safe to say that things are serious.

Coordinated Meddling

Please consider Eurozone Leaders Take Coordinated Gamble with Response to Athens
By publicly insisting that Greece's referendum on Sunday is a choice about the country's future in the eurozone, Europe's leaders are taking a high-risk political gamble that their intervention will win over Greek voters rather than alienate them.

The strategy was carefully chosen. According to two eurozone officials, the EU's three most high-profile leaders — Angela Merkel, the German chancellor; François Hollande, the French president; and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president — co-ordinated how they would respond to the Greek government's call for a No vote during a series of phone calls at the weekend.

Greek voters have come to resent the EU's interference in their domestic politics. Eurozone leaders were complicit in the ousting of George Papandreou as prime minister in 2011 and they actively campaigned against the far-left Syriza party in parliamentary elections back in 2012. But eurozone leaders believed they could not let the Greek government's campaign for a No go unanswered, officials said.

"What do the Greek people know about all this? The reason why I am addressing . . . the Greek people is they have to know the truth," Mr Juncker said in an occasionally bitter 40-minute address. "I think that the Greek government knows all these elements and it would be advisable to tell the truth to the Greek people instead of simplifying its own message to a 'No'."

It is a strategy that could still go awry. Mr Juncker's bill of particulars included some evasions. His argument that creditors were not proposing pension cuts, for instance, is true only according to the narrowest possible definition of a pension cut. Greek officials also argue his claim there was never an "ultimatum" is a rewriting of recent history. Several eurozone officials at the time described the offer made to Athens on Thursday in such terms.
Believable Juncker

The only significant statement Juncker ever made that I accept as factual is his own admission that he is a liar.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Triumph of Democracy; Reader Reflections on Greece; Absurd Reactions

Posted: 29 Jun 2015 07:51 AM PDT

Reader Reflections on Greece

Reader "AC" pinged me this AM with her accurate assessment of events in Greece. "AC" writes ...
I find strange that no Euro leaders realized that even if Tsipras accepted the deal, his parliament would with almost certainty have rejected it.

European political leaders have lost the sense of democracy and of the power of Parliaments.

We may agree or not with Tsipras ideas and economic or social program, but one thing I think we can all agree on is that he has already made history.

Tsipras restored democracy with his decision to leave such a crucial decision to his people by referendum, showing everybody that in democracy, people must decide their own fate.
Triumph of Democracy

Reader "AC" is surely correct.

I have mentioned on many occasions that the policies of Tsipras are terrible. I cannot support them even as I support his decision to tell the Troika to go to hell.

Many will blame Tsipras. In actuality, it was Troika policies that all but assured the rise of the so-called "radical left" Syriza party.

Recall that Greece technocrat Prime Minister Lucas Papademos was handpicked by the Troika to replace George Papandreou simply because the latter proposed a voter referendum on the Greek bailouts.

Instead of imposed technocrats bowing down to kiss the ECB's ass, or early elections that the Troika hoped to see, Tsipras was willing to let the people decide.

One may or may not like the result, but this was a triumph of democracy over technocrats and nannycrat puppets.

Absurd Reactions

I was up early this AM and watched the futures. At one point the S&P was down over 40 points. Markets were (and still are) down everywhere, across the board, although the S&P has taken back about half the overnight low.

How could anyone have expected anything but what happened? Even those who failed to see this coming in advance should have realized late last week, this was finally inevitable.

The market is acting as if this was a big surprise. There is certainly no surprise in this corner.

The big shock will come when Spain marches down the same path.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Advanced Local SEO Competition Analysis - Moz Blog

Advanced Local SEO Competition Analysis

Posted by Casey_Meraz

Competition in local search is fierce. While it's typical to do some surface level research on your competitors before entering a market, you can go much further down the SEO rabbit hole. In this article we will look at how you can find more competitors, pull their data, and use it to beat them in the search game.

Since there are plenty of resources out there on best practices, this guide will assume that you have already followed the best practices for your own listing and are looking for the little things that might make a big difference in putting you over your competition. So if you haven't already read how to perform the Ultimate Local SEO Audit or how to Find and Build Citations then you should probably start there.

Disclaimer: While it's important to mention that correlation does not mean causation, we can learn a lot by seeing what the competition has done.

Some of the benefits of conducting competitive research are:

  • You can really dive into your customers' market and understand it better.
  • You can figure out who your real customers area and better target them.
  • You can get an understanding of what your competitors have done that has been successful without re-inventing the wheel.

Once you isolate trends that seem to make a positive difference, you can create a hypothesis and test. This allows you to constantly be testing, finding out what works, and growing those positive elements while eliminating the things that don't produce results. Instead of making final decisions off of emotion, make your decisions off of the conversion data.

A good competition analysis will give you a strong insight into the market and allow you to test, succeed, or fail fast. The idea behind this process is to really get a strong snapshot of your competition at a glance to isolate factors you may be missing in your company's online presence.

Disclaimer 2: It's good to use competitors' ideas if they work, but don't make that your only strategy.

Before we get started

Below I will cover a process I commonly use for competition analysis. I have also created this Google Docs spreadsheet for you to follow along with and use for yourself. To make your own copy simply go to File > Make A Copy. (Don't ask me to add you as an owner please :)

Let's get started

1. Find out who your real competitors are

Whether you work internally or were hired as an outside resource to help with your client's SEO campaign, you probably have some idea of who the competition is in your space. Some companies may have good offline marketing but poor online marketing. If you're looking to be the best, it's a good idea to do your own research and see who you're up against.

In my experience it's always good to find and verify 5-10 online competitors in your space from a variety of sources. You can use tools for this or take the manual approach. Keep in mind that you have to screen the data tools give you with your own eye for accuracy.

How do you find your "real" competitors?

We're going to look at some tools you can use to find competitors here in a second, but keep in mind you want to record everything you find.

Make sure to capture the basic information for each competitor including their company name, location, and website. These tools will be useful at a later time. Record these in the "competitor research" tab of the spreadsheet.

Method 1: Standard Google searches for competitors

This is pointing out the obvious, but if you have a set of keywords you want to rank for, you can look for trends and see who is already ranking where you want to be. Don't limit this to just one or two keywords, instead get a broader list of the competitors out there.

To do this, simply come up with a list of several keywords you want to rank for and search for them in your geographic area. Make sure your Geographic preference is set correctly so you get accurate data.

  1. Collect a list of keywords
  2. Search Google to see which companies are ranking in the local pack
  3. Record a list of the companies' names and website URLs in the spreadsheet under the competitor research tab.

To start we're just going to collect the data and enter it into the spreadsheet. We will revisit this data shortly.

Outside of the basics, I always find it's good to see who else is out there. Since organic and local rankings are more closely tied together than ever, it's a good idea to use 3rd party tools to get some insight as to what else your website could be considered related to.

This can help provide hidden opportunities outside of the normal competition you likely look at most frequently.

Method 2: Use SEMRUSH.com

SEMRush is a pretty neat competitive analysis tool. While it is a paid program, they do in fact have a few free visits a day you can check out. It's limited but it will show you 10 competitors based on keyword ranking data. It's also useful for recording paid competition as well.

To use the tool, visit www.SEMRush.com and enter your website in the provided search box and hit search. Once the page loads, you simply have to scroll down to the area that says "main competitors". If you click the "view full report" option you'll be taken to a page with 10 competition URLs.

Put these URLs into the spreadsheet so we can track them later.

Method 3: Use SPYFU.com

This is a cool tool that will show your top 5 competitors in paid and organic search. Just like SEMRush, it's a paid tool that's easy to use. On the home page, you will see a box that loads where you can enter your URL. Once you hit search, a list of 5 websites will populate for free.

Enter these competitors into your spreadsheet for tracking.

Method 4: Use Crunchbase.com

This website is a goldmine of data if you're trying to learn about a startup. In addition to the basic information we're looking for, you can also find out things like how much money they've raised, staff members, past employee history, and so much more.

Crunchbase also works pretty similarly to the prior tools in the sense that you you just enter your website URL and hit the search button. Once the page loads, you can scroll down the page to the competitors section for some data.

While Crunchbase is cool, it's not too useful for smaller companies as it doesn't seem to have too much data outside of the startup world.

Method 5: Check out Compete.com

This tool seems to have limited data for smaller websites but it's worth a shot. It can also be a little bit more high-level than I prefer, but you should still check it out.

To use the tool visit www.compete.com and enter the URL you want to examine in the box provided then hit search.

Click the "Find more sites like" box to get list of three related sites. Enter these in the provided spreadsheet.

Method 6: Use SimilarWeb.com

SimilarWeb provides a cool tool with a bunch of data to check out websites. After entering your information, you can scroll down to the similar sites section which will show websites it believes to be related.

The good news about SimilarWeb is that it seems to have data no matter how big or small your site is.


2. After you know who they are, mine their data

Now that we have a list of competitors, we can really do a deep dive to see who is ranking and what factors might be contributing to their success. To start, make sure to pick your top competitors from the spreadsheet and then look for and record the information below about each business on the Competitor Analysis tab.

You will want to to pull this information from their Google My Business page.

If you know the company's name, it's pretty easy to find them just by searching the brand. You can add the geographic location if it's a multi-location business.

For example if I was searching for a Wendy's in Parker, Colorado, I could simply search this: "Wendy's Parker, CO" and it will pull up the location(s).

Make sure to take and record the following information from their local listings. Get the data from their Google My Business (Google + Page) and record it in the spreadsheet!

  1. Business name - Copy and paste the whole business name. Sometimes businesses keyword stuff a name or have a geographic modifier. It's important to account for this.
  2. Address - The full address of the business location. Although we can't do anything about its physical location, we will search using this information shortly.
  3. City, state, zip code - The city, state, and zip listed on the Google My Business listing.
  4. Phone number - Take the listing's primary number
  5. Phone number 2 - Take the listing's secondary number like an 800 number.
  6. Landing page URL - The one connected to their Google My Business listing.
    PRO TIP: The URL will display as the root domain, but click the link to see if it takes you to an internal landing page. This is essential!
  7. Number of categories - Does your listing have more or less categories than the listing?
  8. Categories in Google My Business
    You can find the categories by clicking on the main category of the listing. It will pop out a list of all of the categories the business is listed under. If you only see one after doing this, open your browser and go to View Source. If you do Ctrl+F you can search the page for "GCID" without the quotes. This will show you the categories they're listed under if you look through the HTML.
  9. Does the profile appear to be 100% complete?
  10. How many reviews do they have?
  11. Is their business name visible in Google Street View? Obviously there is not much we can do about this, but it's interesting especially considering some patents Bill Slawski was recently talking about.

** Record this information on the spreadsheet. A sample is below.

What can we do with this data?

Since you've already optimized your own listing for best practices, we want to see if there is any particular trends that seem to be working better in a certain area. We can then create a hypothesis and test it to see if any gains are losses are made. While we can't isolate factors, we can get some insight as to what's working the more you change it.

In my experience, examining trends is much easier when the data is side by side. You can easily pick out data that stands out from the rest.

3. Have a close(r) look at their landing pages

You already know the ins and outs of your landing page. Now let's look at each competitor's landing page individually. Let's look at the factors that carry the most weight and see if anything sticks out.

Record the following information into the spreadsheet and compare side by side with your company vs. the successful ones.

Page title of landing page
City present? - Is the city present in the landing page meta title?
State present? - Is the state present in the landing page meta title?
Major KW in title? Is there a major keyword in the landing page meta title?
Content length on landing page - Possibly minor but worth examining. Copy/paste into MS Word
H1 present? - Is the H1 tag present?
City in H1? - Does the H1 contain the city name?
State in H1? - Does the H1 have the state or abbreviation in the heading?
Keyword in H1? - Do they use a keyword in the H1?
Local business schema present? - Are they using schema? Find out using the Google structured data testing tool here.
Embedded map present? - Are they embedding a Google map?
GPS coordinates present? - Are they using GPS coordinates via schema or text?


4. Off site: See what google thinks is authoritative

Recently, I was having a conversation with a client who was super-excited about the efforts his staff was making. He proudly proclaimed that his office was building 10 new citations a day and added over 500 within the past couple of months!

His excitement freaked me out. As I suspected, when I asked to see his list, I saw a bunch of low quality directory sites that were passing little or no value. One way I could tell they were not really helping (besides the fact that some were NSFW websites), was that the citations or listings were not even indexed in Google.

I think it's a reasonable assumption that you should test to see what Google knows about your business. Whatever Google delivers about your brand, it's serving because it has the most relevance or authority in its eyes.

So how can we see what Google sees?

It's actually pretty simple. Just do a Google Search. One of the ways that I try to evaluate and see whether or not a citation website is authoritative enough is to take the competition's NAP and Google it. While you've probably done this many times before for citation earning, you can prioritize your efforts based off of what's recurring between top ranked competitor websites.

As you can see in the example below where I did a quick search for a competitor's dental office (by pasting his NAP in the search bar), I see that Google is associating this particular brand with websites like:

  1. The company's main website
  2. Whitepages
  3. Amazon Local (New)
  4. Rateadentist.com
  5. DentalNeighbor.com

Pro Tip: Amazon local is relatively new, but you can see that it's going to carry a citation benefit in local search. If your clients are willing, you should sign up for this.

Don't want to copy and paste the NAP in a variety of formats? Use Andrew Shotland's NAP Hunter to get your competitor's variants. This tool will easily open multiple window tabs in your browser and search for combinations of your competitor's NAP listings. It makes it easy and it's kind of fun.

5. Check important citations

With citations, I'm generally in the ballpark of quality over quantity. That being said, if you're just getting the same citations that everyone else has, that doesn't really set you apart does it? I like to tell clients that the top citation sources are a must, but it's good to seek out opportunities and monitor what your competition does so you can keep up and stay ahead of the game.

You need to check the top citations and see where you're listed vs. your competition. Tools like Whitespark's local citation finder make this much easier to get an easy snapshot.

If you're looking to see which citations you should find and check, use these two resources below:

Just like in the example in the section above, you can find powerful hidden gems and also new website opportunities that arise from time to time.

Just because you did it once doesn't mean you should leave it alone

A common mistake I see is businesses thinking it's ok to just turn things off when they get to the top.That's a bad idea. If you're serious about online marketing, you know that someone is always out to get you. So in addition to tracking your brand mentions through the Fresh Web Explorer, you also need to be tracking your competition at least once a month! The good news is that you can do this easily with Fresh Web Explorer from Moz.

So what should you setup in Fresh Web Explorer?

  • Your competitor's brand name - Monitor their mentions and see what type of marketing they're doing!
  • Your competitor's NAP - Easily find new citations they're going after
  • City+Industry+Keywords - Maybe there are some hidden gems outside of your competition you could go after!

Plus track anything else you can think of related to your brand. This will help the on-going efforts get a bit easier.

6. Figure out which citations have dofollow links

Did you know some citation sources have dofollow links which mean they pass link juice to your website? Now while these by themselves likely won't pass a lot of juice, it adds an incentive for you to be proactive with recording and promoting these listings.

When reviewing my competition's citations and links I use a simple Chrome plugin called NoFollow which simply highlights nofollow links on pages. It makes it super easy to see what's a follow vs. a nofollow link.

But what's the benefit of this? Let's say that I have a link on a city website that's a follow link and a citation. If it's an authority page that talks highly about my business, it would make sense for me to link to it from time to time. If you're getting links from websites other than your own and linking to these high quality citations you will pass link juice to your page. It's a pretty simple way of increasing the authority of your local landing pages.

7. Links, links, links

Since the Pigeon update almost a year ago, links started to make a bigger impact in local search. You have to be earning links and you have to earn high quality links to your website and especially your Google My Business Landing page.


If the factors show you're on the same playing field as your competition except in domain authority or page authority, you know your primary focus needs to be links.

Now here is where the research gets interesting. Remember the data sources we pulled earlier like compete, spyfu.com, etc? We are now going to get a bigger picture on the link profile because we did this extra work. Not only are we just going to look at the links that our competition in the pack has, we've started to branch out of that for more ideas which will potentially pay off big in the long run.

What to do now

Now we want to take every domain we looked at when we started and run Open Site Explorer on each and every domain. Once we have these lists of links, we can then sort them out and go after the high quality ones that you don't already have.


Typically, when I'm doing this research I will export everything into Excel or Google Docs, combine them into one spreadsheet and then sort from highest authority to least authority. This way you can prioritize your road map and focus on the bigger fish.

Keep in mind that citations usually have links and some links have citations. If they have a lot of authority you should make sure you add both.

8. But what about user behavior?

If you feel like you've gone above and beyond your competition and yet you're not seeing the gains you want, there is more you have to look at. Sometimes as an SEO it's easy to get in a paradigm of just the technical or link side of things. But what about user behavior?


It's no secret and even some recent tests are showing promising data. If your users visit your site and then click back to the search results it indicates that they didn't find what they were looking for. Through our own experiments we have seen listings in the SERPs jump a few positions in hours just based off of user behavior.

So what does this mean for you?

You need to make sure your pages are answering the users queries as they land on your page, preferably above the fold. For example, if I'm looking for a haircut place and I land on your page, I might be wanting to know the hours, pricing, or directions to your store. Making information prevalent is essential.

Make sure that if you're going to make these changes you test them. Come up with a hypothesis, test the results, and come to conclusion or another test based off of the data. If you want to know more about your users, I say that you need to find as much about them as human possible. Some services you can use for that are:

1. Inspectlet - Record user sessions and watch how they navigate your website. This awesome tool literally allows you to watch recorded user sessions. Check out their site.

2. LinkedIn Tracking Script - Although I admit it's a bit creepy, did you know that you can see the actual visitors to your website if they're logged into LinkedIn while browsing your website? You sure can. To do this complete the following steps:

1. Sign up for a LinkedIn Premium Account
2. Enter this code into the body of your website pages:

  


3. Replace the XXXXX with your account number of your profile. You can get this by logging into your profile page and getting the number present after viewid?=
4. Wait for the visitors to start showing up under "who's viewed your profile"

3. Google Analytics - Watch user behavior and gain insights as so what they were doing on your website.

Reviews

Speaking of user behavior, is your listing the only one without reviews? Does it have fewer or less favorable reviews? All of these are negative signals for user experience. Do you competitors have more positive reviews? If so you need to work getting more.


Meta descriptions

While this post was mainly geared towards local SEO as in Google My Business rankings, you have to consider that there are a lot of localized search queries that do not generate pack results. In these cases they're just standard organic listings.

If you've been deterred to add these by Google picking its own meta descriptions or by their lack of ranking benefit, you need to check yourself before you wreck yourself. Seriously. Customers will make a decision on which listing to click on based on this information. If you're not thinking about optimizing these for user intent on the corresponding page then you're just being lazy. Spend the time, increase CTR, and increase your rankings if you're serving great content.

Conclusion

The key to success here is realizing that this is a marathon and not a sprint. If you examine the competition in the top areas mentioned above and create a plan to overcome, you will win long term. This of course also assumes you're not doing anything shady and staying above board.

While there were many more things I could add to this article, I believe that if you put your focus on what's mentioned here you'll have the greatest success. Since I didn't talk too much about geo-tagged media in this article, I also included some other items to check in the spreadsheet under the competitor analysis tab.

Remember to actively monitor what those around you are doing and develop a pro-active plan to be successful for your clients.

What's the most creative thing you have seen a competitor do successfully local search? I would love to hear about it in the comments below.


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To see these updates, visit our Privacy Policy. To learn more about buyable Pins, check out our Help Center.
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Seth's Blog : The rejectionists

The rejectionists

We can choose to define ourselves (our smarts, our brand, our character) on who rejects us.

Or we can choose to focus on those that care enough to think we matter.

Carrying around a list of everyone who thinks you're not good enough is exhausting.

       

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duminică, 28 iunie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Sudden Stop Thesis: What Are the Odds of Grexit Within Three Weeks?

Posted: 28 Jun 2015 10:22 PM PDT

Four years ago I thought odds of an eventual Grexit were nearly certain. Some people still don't believe so, while others are just beginning to understand the obvious.

Former Pimco Co-CEO El-Erian Sees 85% Grexit Odds With 'Massive' Contraction Coming.
Greece is heading for a "massive economic contraction" and is likely to be forced out of the euro zone, according to Mohamed El-Erian, the former chief executive at Pacific Investment Management Co.

"There's an 85 percent probability that Greece will be forced to leave the euro zone" in the next few weeks, El-Erian said in an interview from New York. "What we are seeing here is what economists call the sudden stop, when the payment system stops. The logic of a sudden stop is a massive economic contraction, social unrest and it's going to make continued membership of the euro zone very difficult for Greece."
Sudden Stop Thesis

While I still think it likely Greece will exit the eurozone, I will take the "over" line on a "few weeks". It is amazing how long these things drag out.

There are at least two wildcards in play that could prolong things. At the top of the list is Russia. Second in line is the US.

Why? Because the US does not want Greece to form serious ties with Russia.

Also, Merkel does not want Grexit on her watch.

Russia the Key

Meanwhile, and as I have been saying for months, Russia is the Key. Will Russia come to aid Greece with enough money and oil to enable Greece to hang on longer than a few weeks?

I suspect the answer is yes. If so, the price may be sanctions.

EU rules require unanimous agreement on sanctions. I expect Greece to play that card very well. Greece can and likely will torpedo EU sanctions on Russia by the end of the year.

Unless there is an immediate collapse in Greece starting now, look for Russia to keep Greece afloat until sanctions are lifted.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Bank Holiday: Greek Banks and Stock Market Shut Until July 7; Capital Controls Imposed

Posted: 28 Jun 2015 09:26 PM PDT

After the ECB shut off ELA, prime minister Alexis Tsipras imposed capital controls while blaming the ECB just as I predicted.

Of course, that was an easy prediction. Yet, even at the last moment, many did not believe it would come to this.

Let's tune into the Guardian Live Blog for some details.

Bank Holiday

  • Speaking on live TV, Alexis Tsipras is saying that the Greek central bank has been forced to recommend a bank holiday and the introduction of capital controls.
  • He blames the ECB, and other institutions, for trying to obstruct the democratic referendum he has called for next Sunday. This is a "insult" that shames European democracy, he says.
  • Tsipras also appeals for calm, and he insists that bank deposits are secure.

Capital Controls

  • Officials said the bank closure would last for several days and would be accompanied by limits yet to be announced on bank transfers abroad and withdrawals from cash machines.
  • The cashing of cheques would be halted and fixed term deposits would be locked down. The Athens stock exchange was also set to be closed.

Bank Queues

  • All over Athens people have been queuing tonight, but the lines outside the National Bank branches were by some distance the longest, reports Jon Henley.
  • And that's because the National Bank supplies the banknotes, and lots of other Greek banks, by midnight on Sunday, had no more of those.

Vacation

In honor of the bank and stock market vacation, I offer this musical tribute.



Link if video does not play: Connie Francis Vacation.

How Can People Be So Stupid?

What are bank queues forming now that it's too late?

The only answer I can come up with is those who waited are stupid beyond belief. 

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

ECB Cries Uncle, Halts ELA Amid Run on Greek Banks; Capital Controls and Bank Holiday Next?

Posted: 28 Jun 2015 07:31 AM PDT

I have been wondering when the ECB would finally pull the plug and put a stop to the ELA.

Today, amid an accelerating run on Greek banks, the ECB capped the ELA.

The Guardian has a Live-Update on the crisis.

Here is the key point "No more extra emergency funding to Greece's banks, despite steady outflow of deposits since crisis escalated."

Capital Controls, Bank Holiday Coming

Economics professor Karl Whelan says Capital Controls Coming
Professor Karl Whelan of University College Dublin just launched a blogpost which explains why he thinks some Greek banks won't open tomorrow.

The ECB's decision to cap emergency liquidity at its current level means capital controls are now coming, he argues.

That's because commercial bank reserves have probably been significantly depleted by the rush to some cash machines this weekend.

So, they have little left in cash or reserves at the central bank, leaving them exposed when they open their doors on Monday morning.

Professor Whelan explains:

In that case, the only way the Greek banks could finance the (presumably very large) demands for withdrawals on Monday would have been to get access to additional funds from the Bank of Greece in the form of additional ELA. That will not be possible now, so most likely the banks will not open on Monday.

The statement that "ECB will work closely with Bank of Greece to maintain financial stability" is probably code for "ECB will help Greece to design a programme of capital controls".

So it has come to this. No matter how well things go from here (and positive scenarios are hard to imagine) restrictions on Greek banks could be in place for a very long time.

It is easy at this point to panic and say it's the end of the world and a new currency must be days away. It's worth remembering, however, the Cyprus coped surprisingly well with its capital controls and ultimately they were lifted this year and the banking system survived. There is probably still a small window of opportunity left to keep Greece in the euro, even if the banks don't open tomorrow.
Greece now gets to blame the ECB for bank failures. This move likely seals the deal on the July 5 referendum (See Tsipras Calls July 5 Referendum on Creditors' Demands; Merkel Says No Alternative to Creditor's "Generous" Offer).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Seth's Blog : Buzzer management

Buzzer management

I started the quiz team at my high school. Alas, I didn't do so well at the tryouts, so I ended up as the coach, but we still made it to the finals.

It took me thirty years to figure out the secret of getting in ahead of the others who also knew the answer (because the right answer is no good if someone else gets the buzz):

You need to press the buzzer before you know the answer.

As soon as you realize that you probably will be able to identify the answer by the time you're asked, buzz. Between the time you buzz and the time you're supposed to speak, the answer will come to you. And if it doesn't, the penalty for being wrong is small compared to the opportunity to get it right.

This feels wrong in so many ways. It feels reckless, careless and selfish. Of course we're supposed to wait until we're sure before we buzz. But the waiting leads to a pattern of not buzzing.

No musician is sure her album is going to be a hit. No entrepreneur is certain that every hire is going to be a good one. No parent can know that every decision they make is going to be correct. 

What separates this approach from mere recklessness is the experience of discovering (in the right situation) that buzzing makes your work better, that buzzing helps you dig deeper, that buzzing inspires you.

The habit is simple: buzz first, buzz when you're confident that you've got a shot. Buzz, buzz, buzz. If it gets out of hand, we'll let you know.

The act of buzzing leads to leaping, and leaping leads to great work. Not the other way around.

       

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