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sâmbătă, 26 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

How US Corporations "Cooperate" With China; Xi’s China: A Place Called Hopelessness

Posted: 26 Sep 2015 06:12 PM PDT

In response to Why I'm Never Going to "Two-Bit" China an anonymous reader sent links to a video on how US companies are forced to cooperate with China and an article on "Xi's China" from the Daily Beast.

Both may be a bit over the top, or not, in the eyes of the viewer. Let's start with the video from China Uncensored.

China Tells US Tech Companies to "Cooperate"

Xi's China: A Place Called Hopelessness

Next please consider Xi's China: A Place Called Hopelessness

As China's President Xi Jinping visits the United States this week, Americans will have little sense what it's like for his people back home. His top internet censor, Lu Wei, organized a technology summit in Seattle earlier this week. Alibaba's Jack Ma and Apple's Tim Cook have been in tow, in addition to other tech giants. After a round of diplomatic pomp in Washington D.C., President Xi will address the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Monday before returning to Beijing in time for National Day celebrations at home. His message will be of success in the present and for the future.

Ask the ant tribe. They're educated, young professionals who live in near-poverty conditions, grinding away at soul-crushing jobs—not careers—that yield no personal satisfaction and zero financial growth. Typically from rural areas, most have settled in northwest Beijing, where their living quarters are cramped and they have no personal space. They're smart, they work hard, yet receive no recognition and can't shake off anonymity. So, people call them ants.

This year, nearly 7.5 million fresh Chinese university graduates entered the workforce, or attempted to. But because of the massive influx of new labor, increased year on year, competition has become cutthroat even as salaries have fallen, in some cases, lower than the wages received by factory workers. Cost of living continues to increase in tier-one cities, and prospects for members of the ant tribe eventually to own their own houses are slim. "I'll never be able to get married and provide for a family. I feel like I'll always be stuck in these six square meters," groaned Xiao. Rent is ¥1300, or about US$200, a month. That may not seem like much, but after other expenses, most of Xiao's ¥3,300 ($520) paycheck is gone.

In the fantasy world that the Chinese Communist Party has created for its revised history books, the state takes care of every citizen. But the ant tribe knows firsthand that this is not the case. Calling the Chinese president by his nickname, Xiao said, "Xi Dada says the youth are this country's future, but most of us don't have any opportunities. We graduated from university but there aren't any jobs available to us, at least not in the subjects we studied."

Xi Jinping's crusade against corruption has "swatted flies" and "hunted tigers," who conveniently are the Chinese leader's political enemies. China's millionaires can't leave the country fast enough. China's rural areas have a gaping security vacuum; forced demolitions, evictions, and land seizures still take place frequently, at times with deadly results. Soon, the CCP will begin transforming 82,000 square miles of land around Beijing into a megacity that's about the size of Kansas, and it will hold over 100 million people, or more than one-third of America's population. What will the ant tribe look like when that time comes? What does it mean for Chinese society when routine overtakes imagination, if it hasn't already?

China is hardly the miracle its proponents make it out to be. And it's system of government outright sucks.

Make statements like that in China and you will get arrested, or worse.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

How Long Will Janet Yellen Last as Fed Chair? Fed Declines to Comment on Her Health, I Will

Posted: 26 Sep 2015 12:43 PM PDT

Fed Chair Janet Yellen's health is in question after she could not read her prepared text in a lecture on inflation last Thursday.

About 50 minutes into her speech, she paused for about 25 seconds, then repeated phrases and missed words.

MarketWatch reports Yellen Stumbles Towards End of Speech at Amherstt.

Yellen Video #1

Fed Declines to Comment

The Wall Street Journal reports Fed Declines to Comment on Yellen's Health

The Fed chairwoman, 69 years old, faltered roughly 50 minutes into a lecture on the economy and inflation Thursday at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. She stumbled over her prepared text, paused for long stretches several times, missed and jumbled some words in the text, and coughed before concluding her speech and leaving the stage.

The Fed spokeswoman, Michelle Smith, on Thursday said Ms. Yellen "felt dehydrated at the end of a long speech under bright lights" and was seen by emergency medical technicians as a precaution, but "felt fine afterward" and attended a dinner on campus.

Bloomberg News reported Ms. Yellen appeared fine after her dinner and flew back to Washington on Friday from Hartford, Conn., telling fellow passengers at the airport that she felt better. "I look good now, don't I?" she said, according to the news outlet.

Yellen Video #2 - Close Up

Claim Investigation

Inquiring minds may wish an investigation of Yellen's claim "I look good now, don't I?"

Here is a sample of recent images from which readers can judge.

It's Better to Look Good Than Feel Good

Yellen says she looks good. And you know what they say.

Link if video does not play: "Fernando's Hideaway"

Let's be honest. Yellen looks God awful. She is 69 but looks 80. There is a load of pressure on the Fed Chair, and I highly doubt she can last another year.

How many rate hikes will she get in before she steps down for health reasons? Any?

By the way, the Fed has not hiked in 20 years in any year in which the stock market was negative year-over-year at the time.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Seth's Blog : More of a realist

More of a realist

When did being called a 'realist' start to mean that one is a pessimist?

Sometimes, people with small goals call themselves realists, and dismiss those around them as merely dreamers. I think this is backwards.

"I guess I'm more of a realist than you," actually means, "I guess I've discovered that a positive attitude, a generous posture and a bit of persistence makes things better than most people expect."

Hope isn't a strategy, but it is an awfully good tactic.

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 25 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Herman Stekler Award for Bold, Inaccurate Recession Forecasting: 2015 Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI; Mish 2016?
Market Rallies then Fades on News Yellen Expects Hikes This Year; Futures Still Imply No Hikes
Tracking the Implosion of Brazil; Be Careful of What You Wish; Perfect Storm; Email from Brazil; More Intervention Madness

Herman Stekler Award for Bold, Inaccurate Recession Forecasting: 2015 Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI; Mish 2016?

Posted: 25 Sep 2015 12:59 PM PDT

I received a nice email today from Prakash Loungani. He gave a presentation at the Federal Forecasters Conference yesterday. His presentation was on the inability and unwillingness for forecasters to predict recessions.

Loungani says that to get forecasters to predict recessions (even inaccurately) we should have a Stekler Award for Courage in Forecasting. The award would be in honor of noted forecaster Herman Stekler who has always insisted that forecasters should predict recessions early and often and that he himself has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.

The 2015 award would go to Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI, who called for a U.S. recession in 2012 in September 2011. ECRI recently admitted that the call had been a false alarm but gave a detailed and useful explanation for why it made the call.

I am in the running for the 2016 award because in January, I predicted that Canada and the U.S. would slip into recession this year.

The slides are quite funny.

Click on the right and left arrows, not the down arrow.

Link if slideshow does not play. Herman Stekler Award for Inaccurate Recession Forecasting

Related Links

January 21, 2015: Canadian Recession Coming Up: Yield Curve Inverts Following Unexpected Rate Cut; Loonie at Six-Year Low
January 31, 2015: Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015
September 2, 2015: Canada in Recession with Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative Growth

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Market Rallies then Fades on News Yellen Expects Hikes This Year; Futures Still Imply No Hikes

Posted: 25 Sep 2015 12:16 PM PDT

Stocks Rallied a bit today on news that Yellen still expects a hike this year, but have since given up those gains.

S&P 500 10-Minute Chart

Reuters reports Wall Street Up on Yellen Comments; Health Stocks Drag Nasdaq

U.S. stocks were higher in early afternoon trading on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she expects interest rates to be raised this year, easing concerns about slowing global growth and prompting a rally in bank shares.

However, the continuing selloff in health stocks and a drop in Google's shares due to a regulatory investigation limited gains on the Nasdaq.

Yellen said on Thursday that the Fed does not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect its policy.

If the above chart holds the story after the closing bell will look like this: "Wall Street Down on Yellen Comments".

Futures Still Imply No Hikes

A quick check of CME Fedwatch shows the Fed Fund Futures gave a big yawn to the notion Yellen is going to hike.

Fed fund futures did not change a bit. The CME still has the probability of a hike at 35%.

Bear in mind, those odds reflect a quarter point hike. I am of the opinion the Fed will hike in eighths, or possibly quarter point ranges starting not with a hike from the current 0%-.25% to .25%-.50%, but rather a hike to the range .125%-.375%.

That of course assumes the Fed will hike at all. If Yellen wanted to convince the market she was going to hike, she should not have given the market a litany of 10 reasons the Fed did not hike at the last meeting.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Tracking the Implosion of Brazil; Be Careful of What You Wish; Perfect Storm; Email from Brazil; More Intervention Madness

Posted: 25 Sep 2015 02:16 AM PDT

Perfect Storm

Reader Lucas from Brazil writes about the "perfect storm".

Hello Mish

Brazilian interest rates are skyrocketing. Rates went up more than 2 percentage points in a month. Bond trading was suspended due to the quick devaluation.

Nobody is talking much about it, but energy corporation Petrobras is down 95% from the peak (in dollars). They have a high dollar exposure, and some estimates say that since June, Real devaluation alone was responsible for a +R$100B increase in debt.

Brazil's majors oil investments are in (really) deep water drilling, and they may be not worthy anymore. Petrobras debt is now equivalent to 8% of the whole country GDP.

And while. our president doesn't have support to do anything.

It's a perfect storm here.

Lucas

Petrobras

In classic bubble action, shares of Petrobas went from $4 to $77 back to $4. Executives no doubt, cashed out at every opportunity.

Brazil Real

The Brazilian Real went from 1.6 to the US dollar to 4.1 to the US dollar. That's a decline of about 54% .

Brazil 1-Year Government Bonds

Since 2007, the yield on 1-year Brazil government bonds went from just over 7% to over 16%.

Flashback March 2012

Please note the inserts on the second two charts. I highlighted the March 2012 candle because that's when Brazil Declared New Currency War on US and Europe.

"When the real appreciates, it reduces our competitiveness. Exports are more expensive, imports are cheaper and it creates unfair competition for businesses in Brazil," said Guido Mantega, the finance minister who was the first to use the controversial term "currency war" in 2010.

President Dilma Rousseff later weighed in on the debate, vowing to defend Brazilian industry and stop developed countries' policies from causing the "cannibalisation" of emerging markets.

The move comes as Brazil's central bank also steps up direct intervention in the market, selling dollars and offering derivatives called reverse currency swaps to curb the real's near 9 per cent surge against the US dollar this year.

Be Careful of What You Wish

It was just a few short years ago that Brazil was bitching about the strength of the Real. Brazil got its wish.

More Intervention Madness

On Thursday, we learned Brazil Real Mounts Biggest Rally in 7 Years on Intervention Suggestions

The Brazilian Real rallied nearly five percent Thursday following statements by the country's central bank president, which stated that he will explore the use of foreign exchange (FX) reserves to defend the currency against persistent declines versus the US Dollar. Brazil Central Bank (BCB) President Alexandre Tombini mentioned that different options will be used to stabilize the currency. Options that may be employed include swap contracts and dollar repurchase agreements.

What If Intervention Fails?

One day proves nothing.

I have a simple question for Brazil: What if intervention fails?

If Brazil blows all of its reserves defending a pseudo-peg that cannot be maintained, it will find itself in very dire straits. Untenable currency prop jobs are the way to ruin.

Ask Argentina; Ask Russia; Ask China who recently tried and failed to prop up its stock market. Heck ask Switzerland who recently had to abandon its peg to the euro.

The only thing that will stabilize the Real is sound economic policy and a stable government.

Until then, there is no question. Intervention "will" fail.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Shelter Dogs Take Their First Trip To Their Forever Home

Posted: 25 Sep 2015 07:18 PM PDT

These pictures capture the amazing moments when shelter dogs finally get taken to their new homes for the first time.

Meet The 5 Month Old Fox That's Become A House Pet

Posted: 25 Sep 2015 03:02 PM PDT

This 5 month old domesticated fox is named Rylai and Rylai is blowing up the Internet. She's become quite the sensation on Instagram and Facebook. She's got home life down for the most part but she's still working on the potty training.