Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• High-End Property Slowdown in Maryland and Texas: Where Next?
• Export Prices Unexpectedly Collapse, Led by Agriculture; Non-Petroleum Import Prices Sink Most Since October 2009
• Sorting the European Far Left from the Far Right: 10 Comments - Can You Tell Left From Right?

High-End Property Slowdown in Maryland and Texas: Where Next? Posted: 09 Oct 2015 12:52 PM PDT Correction: In what follows, I said initially said Virginia when I meant Maryland. Title and all references to Virginia corrected to Maryland. The person I quoted below said "MD" but somehow I spelled it out as Virginia. Apologies offered. In response to Chicago Suburbs $1 Million+ Home Sales "Not Totally Dead" Yet; Rush for the Exit, I received emails from Maryland and Texas about slowdowns in those states. Anecdotes do not constitute "data" but all three stories (counting Chicago) show significant weakness at the high-end in widely varying areas with distinct economic backdrop differences. Paul from Maryland Mish, I live in the Howard County, Maryland. It's the 4th wealthiest county in the US. We recently had a presentation by a Realtor on the state of the market. It's still a very strong seller's market in the $600K and below range. Inventory is around 2.5 months on a 3 month rolling average basis. However, the high end is abysmal. Houses asking $2.5M+ are not selling at all. There are 20 on the market with no sales. In the $1M to $2.5M category, 293 are up for sale, with only 27sold, a weak showing. A friend of mine who lives in a high end area told me about a neighbor who had asked $1.5M and sold for $850K. The Realtor opined that that a recession next year was likely. Paul Aaron From Texas Hello Mish, Good article on Chicago. We are seeing a similar slowdown on the high end here in Houston, particularly in the Energy Corridor (West Houston). Right now Texas has a huge problem with skyrocketing residential property taxes. I was on the local news last night talking about the City of Sugar Land's latest exercise in corporate welfare as they gifted about $8 million in new tax incentives to Schlumberger. That's $8 million that will be strapped to the backs of homeowners who have no real access to due process to fight our corrupt appraisal districts. It's actually fairly easy for corporations to get a nice discount from the CADs because Texas is a non-disclosure state, and the CADS get roughed up when they are sued in district court. Aaron Layman Oh Those CADs I gave Aaron a call. "CAD" stands for County Appraisal District. It seems the CADs go way out of their way to appraise business property low and home prices high. They can get away with it because sale prices are not disclosed. Aaron has his own real estate business and a blog. He wrote about the Schlumberger deal recently in Sugar Land Homeowners Get Steamrolled.  In a second email Aaron wrote ... Hi Mish, It was a pleasure talking to you. Thanks for the call. We have a "Sugar Land" TX, but not a "Sugar Town". My market here in Katy is more directly tied to the Energy Corridor. We have seen a very noticeable drop in new construction sales here this year in Katy and West Houston. Builders were chasing the high end of the market, and now those homes priced at $500,000 and higher are not selling nearly as well. What a surprise! Cross Creek Ranch was one of the nation's hottest spots for new home construction in 2013 and the first half of 2014. Now things are rolling over. 6 of the last 7 months have resulted in negative YoY prices. One of my clients was able to get $119,000 off of the original list price for a new spec home. For additional background, I am not just a licensed, practicing real estate broker. I am also a licensed educator and frequent blogger. I enjoy writing, and I have become fascinated with the crony capitalism from the Federal Reserve and various levels of government. Our financial markets are now a comedic farce, similar to our warped & manipulated housing market. It is an absolute travesty what is happening in this country, and I am continually amazed at the lengths our politicians and apologists will go to as they attempt to whitewash all of the fraud that is taking place and keep corporate criminals out of jail. Interesting times! Best Regards, Aaron Sugar Land vs. Sugar Town That's the kind of honesty that's going to get an endorsement from me. If you are in the Texas energy belt looking to buy or sell, Aaron appears to be a good source. I had mistakenly referred to Sugar Land as Sugar Town in one of our email exchanges. Thus the correction, with an accompanying musical Tribute Link if video does not play: Nancy Sinatra - Sugar Town 1967 Where Next? High-end rot is apparent in Howard County Maryland, the Texas energy belt, and Chicago suburbs. Where's the next high-end bust? I actually suspect they are happening all over the place. And if so, recall my earlier statement that the economy rots from the periphery to the core but home price rot starts at the high-end and works its way lower. I propose housing is not as strong as the bulk of economists believe it is. Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Export Prices Unexpectedly Collapse, Led by Agriculture; Non-Petroleum Import Prices Sink Most Since October 2009 Posted: 09 Oct 2015 09:07 AM PDT Economists expected export prices to drop by 0.2%. Instead they fell 0.7%, outside the range of any Econoday Import/Export Estimate. A bounce back for petroleum prices helped to limit import-price contraction in September, coming in at only minus 0.1 percent. But contraction in export prices, where agriculture and not petroleum is the wild card, was very heavy, at minus 0.7 percent in the month. Year-on-year rates are very weak, still in the double-digits for imports at minus 10.7 percent and at minus 7.4 percent for exports. A striking detail on the import side is slightly deepening year-on-year contraction in various core readings, still in the low to mid single digits with non-petroleum down 3.3 percent. This is the largest decline since October 2009 and points to fundamental price weakness for imports, in part a function of the strong currency which is giving U.S. buyers more for their dollars. Prices for petroleum imports rose 1.1 percent in the month, a welcome positive for the Fed's efforts to raise inflation but still a fraction of the giant 11.8 and 6.6 percent declines of the prior two months. On the export side, prices of agricultural goods fell 1.1 percent and are down a stiff 13.5 percent year-on-year in news that is not welcome in the farm sector. Non-agricultural export prices fell 0.6 percent in the month with the year-on-year rate also speaking to fundamental price weakness, at minus 6.7 percent in what is record weakness. But the price bounce for petroleum is a reminder that the great price drag from this year's oil rout may have run its course, especially given this month's early strength in oil prices. Still, this is a weak report that underscores the strong dollar's negative-price effects on imports. Welcome Rise Once again, the economic cheerleaders are praising price inflation. Bear in mind, this same group of cheerleaders have said all along that falling oil prices were a good thing because consumers would spend the money elsewhere. Thus, falling oil prices are good, and so are rising oil prices. Do these people read what they write? Off the Chart - Import Prices Import prices are now down 14 consecutive months, year-over-year, literally "off the chart" as shown from the BLS Report on Import/Export Prices. The last time year-over-year import prices rose was for the 12-month period ending July 2014. Off the Chart - Export Prices Year-over-Year export prices are also "off the chart", albeit for one month less. Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.7 percent in September, following a 1.4-percent drop the previous month. Falling agricultural and nonagricultural export prices each contributed to the September and August declines. The price index for overall exports fell 7.4 percent over the past year, the largest year-over-year decrease for the index since an 8.3-percent drop for the 12 months ended July 2009. Agricultural export prices declined 1.1 percent in September, after falling 2.5 percent in August. The decrease was mostly the result of an 8.3-percent drop in soybean prices, although a 4.3-percent decline in nut prices also contributed to falling export agricultural prices. The price index for agricultural exports decreased 13.5 percent for the year ended in September. Declining prices for meat, soybeans, and wheat over the past year primarily drove the drop. Soybeans Live Cattle Word About "The Unexpected" One might think that economists estimating export prices would be following the price of grains, soybeans, cattle, etc. Do they? Or do they just pull guesses out of the air? Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Sorting the European Far Left from the Far Right: 10 Comments - Can You Tell Left From Right? Posted: 09 Oct 2015 07:57 AM PDT In recent speeches in European parliament, press articles, or tweets can you tell whether the listed statements below were from the far left or the far right? Here are the candidates. Quiz statements below are as presented in Spanish newspaper Libre Mercado. I made slight translation changes for ease in reading, some from Google translate, some from translate.com. I also removed an identifying political party reference from one statement. A key phrase in each statement has an identifying link. Without looking, who said what? "We are participating in a spiral of endless austerity to save the euro and the German model of low wages" "The people reject EU finance ministers which dictate how solidarity and living conditions have to be understood" "Under pressure from Germany, the will of the Greek people has been trampled." "The interest in our country is not to abdicate to Mr. Schauble to set the continent's economic policy. The interest of our country is not subject to a firm policy in Berlin, Brussels and Washington." "The real sword hanging over our heads is austerity, and under austerity we fail to defend our values." "Thank you, Mrs. Merkel come with your vice-chancellor, administer of the province of France, Francois Hollande." "To the grand coalition that governs us: Merkel and Hollande, we deserve an alternative in Europe." "Austerity is synonymous with massive unemployment, insecurity and the collapse of our welfare system. " "The Eurogroup has brutally blackmailed Greece but despite that, the Greek people have not lost confidence in Syriza" "The defense of German interests do not justify the subjugation of other European peoples. Your model [Merkel and Hollande] is subjugation to the US, austerity and unfair competition." Far Right - Marine Le Pen: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10 Far Left - Gabi Zimmer - 2, 5, 9 Far Left - Pablo Iglesias - 7  Statement 7 originally said "To the grand coalition that governs us: Merkel and Hollande, and to PP and PSOE, we deserve an alternative in Europe." This was not an easy quiz. In fact, unless one heard the speeches or followed the tweets, it was damn near impossible. And that's precisely the point. The far left and far right are both fed up with the EU. Some positions are indistinguishable. Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Damn Cool Pics

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Movies That Totally Tanked At The Box Office Posted: 09 Oct 2015 05:51 PM PDT The people who made these films had high hopes for them but when it came time to perform at the box office, they ended up becoming massive failures.  The Lone Ranger (2013)  Estimated Budget: $225 million  Gross: $149 million Battlefield Earth (2000) Estimated Budget: $73 million Gross: $29 million Cutthroat Island (1995) Estimated Budget: $98 million Gross: $10 million Gigli (2003) Estimated Budget: $75 million Gross: $7 million Ishtar (1987) Estimated Budget: $55 million Gross: $14.3 million Dudley Do-Right (1999) Estimated Budget: $70 million Gross: $9 million Heaven's Gate (1980) Estimated Budget: $44 million Gross: $3.4 million Waterworld (1995) Estimated Budget: $175 million Gross: $88 million Catwoman (2005) Estimated Budget: $100 million Gross: $82 million Mars Needs Moms (2011) Estimated Budget: $150 million Gross: $38 million 47 Ronin (2013) Estimated Budget: $225 million Gross: $150 million R.I.P.D. (2013) Estimated Budget: $154 million Gross: $78 million The Adventures of Pluto Nash (2002) Estimated Budget: $100 million Gross: $7 million The Nutcracker in 3D (2010) Estimated Budget: $90 million Gross: $16 million Monkeybone (2001) Estimated Budget: $75 million Gross: $7 million

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Remarketing to People That Have Already Visited Your Website - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

Remarketing to People That Have Already Visited Your Website - Whiteboard Friday

Posted by randfish

Someone visits your website once, doesn't convert, and goes on with their day. How in the world do you win them back? Well, the answer may lie in a topic we haven't discussed for a while: remarketing.

In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand discusses how to get back in front of folks who have visited your site or engaged with your industry, new options in retargeted ads, and offers some best practices to follow.

Click on the whiteboard image above to open a high resolution version in a new tab!

Video Transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're chatting about remarketing to people who've already visited your website and then left, or already interacted with your niche, your service, your community, and then gone off somewhere else.

This is actually pretty interesting. A lot of times when we talk about the organic marketing funnel—someone performs a search, they follow you on a social network or they see a tweet from you, a Facebook update and they come to your website—well, we focus a lot on trying to convert that person either to a customer or convert them to signing up for an email newsletter, subscribing to something, following you on a social network, or becoming a part of your community.

But there's actually a lot of data suggesting that the overwhelming majority of people who visit your website... I'll use Fitbit as an example here. Brad, one of Moz's investors and also Fitbit's investor, sent me a Fitbit recently, which is very nice. What am I at today? Let's see, 5696 steps.

A lot of people who visit Fitbit's website, I don't actually know this for sure, but probably about a tenth of a percent of them are converting to a sale or actually buying one of these things. Then, 99.9% are going somewhere else. The idea here is: What can we do to capture this audience again, to get in front of them? We know that at some point they were interested in our product or our service. We want to get in front of them again.

Retargeting

This is something we've covered a little bit, but there's actually a bunch of new options that have surfaced from the advertising and web marketing world that we should probably be aware of. A few of these include things like classic retargeting, aka we follow them around the web like a lost puppy dog. The ads that you see on the side of everything after you looked at that one pair of Zappos shoes that one time, and now you just can't seem to get them out of your head or your browser. Maybe someone's visiting The Next Web and if page X over here on Fitbit's website was visited in the last 1, 2, 30, or 60 days, we want to show this particular ad with a bid price of XYZ.

This is kind of cool. I think where retargeting has really become more sophisticated is in some of the options. We can filter and configure and modify this and model it in such a way that we can say if you visited this page but not these other pages, or if you visited these three pages in a row, we want to show you this. If you interacted on our site in this particular way, we can now do things with apps. If we know that someone has interacted with an app, we can start to do retargeting and remarketing personalized to them.

Moz has used a service called AdRoll in the past. There are a number of them out there. Obviously, Google has a pretty powerful display network around this, too.

RLSA (Remarketed Lists for Search Ads)

Another thing that has been around for a couple of years but we haven't talked about too much on Whiteboard Friday here is RLSA. That's remarketed lists for search ads.

This means if we know that Sonja visited—I think it's Tory Burch who's a fashion designer who designs a special kind of Fitbit—the Tory Burch page on Fitbit and then we know that she searched for bracelets or watches, even though bracelets and watches are something we would never ever want to bid on as Fitbit because we're not in the fashion category, but if we know that Sonya has previously visited a page on Fitbit or any page on Fitbit's website potentially, well, now that she's doing these fashion related searches, we might say, "You know what? Let's show our Tory Burch ad specifically for that product, which is a fashion product, in the search results in the ads there." That's pretty cool.

We can customize this in a ton of ways. You can imagine a bunch of different uses based on what people visited and then what they searched for. Of course, you can bid a lot higher for those types of ads because you know the prior behavior. You can also expect a much higher click-through rate and probably a much higher conversion rate from those ads because that person has already visited your website and is familiar with your product or your brand.

If you have their email address...

If you have an email address, or a social ID, or an app ID, or even a phone number actually, you can use Facebook and Twitter's custom audiences, which are pretty cool to do targeting specifically to people on Facebook or on Twitter whose email address you've uploaded. If a lot of people have signed up for your email newsletter or have started your product purchase process, maybe they went to Fitbit. They entered their email address to sign up, and then they never completed a purchase. We can get back in front of them using Facebook or Twitter custom audiences or using AdWords.

Actually, as of two days prior to us filming this, but probably a few days before, maybe a week or two before this Whiteboard Friday comes out, Google just introduced something called customer match in AdWords. You can upload an email list and then get it in front of those emails specifically when they're performing searches or across their display ad network.

You can do those via places like Retargeter and AdRoll and Google. Those are the CRM retargeting models and services. That's pretty cool.

Or their social ID...

If we have social IDs, for example, if you Facebook connect to Fitbit or if you connected via Twitter, I think you can also use Facebook's connection on Instagram for Instagram ads now if you're part of Instagram's ad program. A bunch of options there as well.

A few best practices before we finish here.

1. First off, whenever you're doing any type of remarketing or retargeting through any of these types of services, make sure that you have smart burn pixels and burn pages, meaning if someone finishes the checkout at Fitbit, don't show them the ad any more. You don't want to keep marketing to someone who's already completed that conversion process. Likewise, you probably want to have a burn after a certain number of days. If you can see that after 8 days or 12 days or 15 days you just are getting very low click-through, very low conversion, you know what, maybe it's time to give up on the ad.
2. You also want to be smart about limiting the exposure and/or changing the message. If someone has seen your ad four, five, or six times as they're browsing across the web, maybe you want to say, "Hey, let's either give them a new message or wait for them to visit again before we keep trying to advertise. Otherwise, we could be burning dollars and bids that could be better spent on other customers or other marketing channels."
3. We want to customize based on behavior. I think one of the big advancements here is that remarketing, when it initially came out, used to be pretty dumb and pretty basic. It was, "Did they visit your site? Then you can show them this one ad." Now people have gotten way more sophisticated, and ad networks have gotten way more sophisticated. We can say, "Hey, they performed this action. We only want to be in this network. We only want to do this if they've done this specific group of things in a row or completed these processes." That can really improve your click-through rates, improve your conversion rates, and improve your targeting.
4. Don't ever assign 100% credit to any one of these. Remember that whatever initially brought them to the website should receive at least as much, if not more, credit and investment than whatever brought them back to purchase. This is a way of recapturing folks, not an initial way. If you're assigning 100% credit, what happens is that you'll stop investing at the top of the funnel and soon you'll just be remarketing to the same smaller, shrinking group of visitors over time. That can get really dangerous.
5. Don't limit ads to sales focus only. If you know that you can convert from other sources, from content, from multiple visits, from someone signing up for an email newsletter, from someone attending an event, from participation on your platform or in your community in a certain way, you don't need to only market the product that you are selling. I think this is something where folks have gotten very narrow. You can see some innovative companies doing some really smart stuff in retargeting and remarketing, looking earlier in their funnel and saying, "Hey, we know that 30% of people who do this activity will eventually become a customer of ours. So let's also remarket this activity, and we can bid a third of the price of whatever we know the conversion leads to directly."
6. You can also try remarketing for really creative stuff. I've seen it for job ads, which I think is brilliant. If someone visits your Jobs page and you're having trouble hiring, hey, follow them around the web like a lost puppy dog. Get in front of them on their social networks. If they have been to an event of yours and you have their email address, you can now market through here.

Campaigns to influencers, I've seen some really creative content marketers who said, "Hey, you know what, we know that here's a list of journalists and bloggers that we've reached out to. We can take that email list and upload it." You need a minimum of a thousand email addresses for all three—Facebook, Twitter, and Google—for the CRM style stuff. Make sure that you have that many emails before you try and upload. If you do, you can get in front of those influencers with content. If that's leading to links and press coverage and stories and the bid prices are low, which they often will be, you may have some big advantages there.

Hopefully, I will see some very creative ads from all of you following me around the web. I look forward to discussion in the comments. We'll see you again next week for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.

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These two ideas are often uttered in the same sentence, but they're actually not related.

People don't click on things because they like them, or because they resonate with them, or because they change them.

They click on things because they think it will look good to their friends if they share them.

Or they click on things because it feels safe.

Or because they're bored.

Or mystified.

Or because other people are telling them to.

Think about the things you chat about over the water cooler. It might be last night's inane TV show, or last weekend's forgettable sporting event. But the things that really matter to you, resonate with you, touch you deeply--often those things are far too precious and real to be turned into an easy share or like or click.

Yes, you can architect content and sites and commerce to get a click. But you might also choose to merely make a difference.

       

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• What's the #1 Predictor of Success in Love?
• Chicago Suburbs $1 Million+ Home Sales "Not Totally Dead" Yet; Rush for the Exit
• Apple's Balance Sheet Math: Does Apple Really Have $203 Billion in Usable Cash on Hand as Widely Reported?
• China's Forex Reserves Drop Most On Record: What Does It Mean? Inflation Tsunami?

What's the #1 Predictor of Success in Love? Posted: 08 Oct 2015 07:28 PM PDT Here's an interesting article that just came my way from the Washington Post. It's about success in love. Please consider The One Number that's Eerily Good at Predicting Success in Love. When people are looking for a significant other, they often try to find someone whose values, education, earnings, hobbies and even height match their own. But new research suggests there's one promising measure for finding a committed partner that most daters overlook -- credit scores. A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Board that looks at what role credit scores play in committed relationships suggests that daters might want to start using the metric as well. The paper analyzed a large proprietary data set of 12 million randomly selected U.S. consumers from the credit reporting agency Equifax over a period of about 15 years. Researchers used an algorithm to find a swathe of committed couples, including some who live together and are not legally married. They found that people with higher (i.e. better) credit scores are more likely to form a committed relationship, as the chart below shows. This was true even after controlling for other differences between partners, like education level, race or income. The researchers also found that having higher credit scores when they started the relationship meant that couples were less likely to separate over the next few years, as the chart below shows. In fact, for every extra 100 points in the couple's average credit score when beginning the relationship, their odds of splitting in the second year fell by around 30 percent. Couples in general are more likely than two randomly selected people to have similar credit scores. Over time, the credit scores of couples actually tend to converge, the study found, from about 55 points to about 22 points over the first four years of the relationship. But if the gap between the individual credit scores was wider at the beginning of their relationship, the couple was more likely to break up as time went on, the researchers found. Trust But Verify "What's your sign?" is so 60ish passé. Today, you need to ask "What's your credit score?" in some sort of polite manner, of course. You could also get right to the nitty-gritty and pay for a credit search. Practical Tip In the "trust but verify" category I offer this tip on what not to say: "Sweetie, what's your social security number? I need it to do a credit check on you." Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Chicago Suburbs $1 Million+ Home Sales "Not Totally Dead" Yet; Rush for the Exit Posted: 08 Oct 2015 12:38 PM PDT "Not Totally Dead" Yet In the Chicago suburbs of Burr Ridge, Naperville,  and Hinsdale, sales of high-end real estate hit a huge slump this summer that still continues. For example, Crain's Chicago reports the city of Burr Ridge, has 100 homes on the market for at least $1 million, but only 14 have sold at that price in the past six months. Crain's Chicago has the details in This suburb has too many $1 million-plus homes for sale (emphasis mine). "It's been disquietingly slow, brutally slow getting these sold," said Linda Feinstein, the broker owner of ReMax Signature Homes in neighboring Hinsdale. "It feels like the brakes have been on for months." Sales slowed down all over the Chicago area this summer, and sometimes potential sellers don't get the message soon enough, which creates an over-stock of inventory. "It's not as busy as we'd all like it to be, but it's not totally dead," said Dave Ricordati, a Coldwell Banker agent with three $1 million-plus listings, the newest of which has been on the market since July. "I mean, it's not 2009 or 2010," when the real estate market was at a virtual standstill. Another factor in the backlog, said Linda Saracco, a ReMax Signature agent who's been working Burr Ridge for over 30 years, is that "a lot of our sellers are baby boomers who bought in the '80s or '90s, built up a lot of equity in their homes and are ready to cash it in." When the market doesn't deliver a buyer who's willing to pay the price they want, "they're not taking it. They'll wait and see if they can get their number." Her prediction: They won't. Ready to Cash In But No Buyers I have to commend ReMax agent Linda Saracco for her accurate, honest assessment "They won't [get their price]". This is precisely what happens when everyone heads for the exit door at the same time. Case-Shiller Chicago Update The Crain's report got me thinking about the most recent Case-Shiller Home Price Update. Let's put a spotlight on Chicago where things are also "not totally dead" .... yet. Chicago Year-Over-Year-Price Changes Chicago Home Price Index Chicago had a huge boom followed by a huge bust that never quite recovered. Economic Rot vs. Home Price Rot Unlike overall economic weakness that starts at the periphery and spreads to the core, real estate rot frequently starts at the high end as buyers balk. Each drop in high-end prices progressively hits the next lower home price group level. Illinois Rush  A rush for the exit in Illinois is underway. And why shouldn't there be one? Who can really afford such prices anyway? Certainly not millennials with a mountain of student debt or those stuck in low-wage jobs. A major part of the problem is the overall set of asset bubbles thanks to loosey-goosey policies at the Fed. But why a rush to the exit in Illinois and not everywhere?  In Illinois, we have a second problem: State of Illinois policies. Oh Come Oh Come Emanuel No, I won't do a musical tribute with that title (accepting your thanks in advance). But Mayor Rahm Emanuel is crazy if he thinks tax hikes are the way out of Chicago's fiscal mess. Yet, on September 23, I noted Chicago Tax Collector Hath Arrived With Massive Tax Hike: Emanuel Says "No Stone Unturned" Worse yet, Emanuel says he's "Not Done Yet [hiking taxes]" and he will leave "no stone unturned" in the search for revenues. Bet Your Bottom Dollar You can bet your last dollar on this: When politicians promise to raise your taxes, they will, and by more than they say. Emanuel will raise property taxes by the most in Chicago history. And that's not going to affect property values or the desire to cash out? What Fantasyland is Emanuel living in? It's not just Chicago. Illinois has a litany of problems that make people want to leave. Citizens want to leave. And they will. But not at the property prices they expect. Mish Proposal On May 4, in Beware, the Tax Man Has Eyes on YouI wrote ... To spare the citizens of Illinois massive tax hikes, the only reasonable course of actions are as follows: Halt defined benefit pension plans for new employees Eliminate collective bargaining of public unions Scrap Davis Bacon and all prevailing wage laws so that cities do not have to overpay for services Enact right-to-work legislation Pass bankruptcy legislation allowing cities, municipalities, and other taxing bodies the right to declare bankruptcy Had options 1-4 been done a decade ago, Illinois would not be as bad off as it is today. Now, even those measures cannot and will not fix the problems. Advice Not Accepted The tax man did not listen. He never does. Related Articles On March 2, I noted Illinois Pension Plans 39% Funded; Taxpayers On the Hook for $105 Billion in Liabilities; It Will Get Worse! On April 1, I noted the Shockingly Bad Fiscal Health of Chicago (and the Financial Engineering Chicago Uses to Hide that Fact). On September 29, Illinois Policy Institute Vice President Michael Lucci noted Food Stamp Growth Outpaces Illinois Job Creation 5-4 During Recovery. Get Me the Hell Out of Here Finally, please consider my August 13 article  Get Me the Hell Out of Here. Policies in Illinois are to hugely blame for this "rush to the exit" by businesses and ordinary taxpayers alike. The net business flight and high-end wealth flight from Illinois to other states will now accelerate thanks to policies in the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois in general. Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Apple's Balance Sheet Math: Does Apple Really Have $203 Billion in Usable Cash on Hand as Widely Reported? Posted: 08 Oct 2015 10:56 AM PDT Apple's latest 10-Q quarterly filing shows that it has nearly $203 billion in cash or cash-equivalents. 10-Q Page 31 Current Assets Diving into a more colorful Nasdaq Summation I made the following clips (highlights in yellow are mine). Totaling actual cash, short-term investments, and over $168 billion in long-term investments, we arrive at the $202.848 billion number on the 10-Q. Current Liabilities Cash Much Smaller Than You Think I don't often dive into balance sheets, but did so after reading a Market-Watch opinion by Brett Arends. Arends writes Apple's real cash pile is 99% smaller than you think. Actually I can quibble with that number a bit, but right off the top one can easily subtract liabilities to get a better picture of what Apple really has. Subtract all the liabilities and you are at $55.374 billion. That's a very good number, but a far cry from media hype. For example CNN Money points out Apple has $203 billion in cash. The title is "technically" accurate, but CNN Money ignores the debt while making the claims "It's fair to wonder why Apple needs all this cash. It's one thing to save for a rainy day. But Apple seems to be acting like Noah and preparing for a 40-day flood. Apple may face even more pressure to do something productive with its $200 billion war chest instead of letting it collect dust in Ireland and other tax havens." Tax Haven Math Returning to the 10-Q we see this note: "As of June 27, 2015 and September 27, 2014, the Company's cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities held by foreign subsidiaries were $181.1 billion and $137.1 billion, respectively, and are generally based in U.S. dollar-denominated holdings. Amounts held by foreign subsidiaries are generally subject to U.S. income taxation on repatriation to the U.S." Arends points out the tax liability on that $181.1 billion held offshore is $59.2 billion. Maybe there is another tax repatriation holiday, but maybe not. And if not, there is another $59.2 billion liability to deal with. In short, Apple could not spend its alleged cash-on-hand without going deeper in debt. Some of the numbers I took from Nasdaq do not precisely match Arends'. For example, he notes $31.5 billion in "off-balance-sheet" liabilities. That's a number suspiciously close to $31.296 billion in "other liabilities" as noted in my clips. If  "off-balance-sheet" is not included in my totals, then subtract another $31.5 billion. Distortions of Reality The key point is that all of these glowing "cash-on-hand" reports that you read are distortions of reality. The primary distortion is reported cash positions ignore debt. I have gone through this exercise before, and after subtracting liabilities, US corporations actually have negative net cash in aggregate. The secondary distortion, as Arends points out, but I had not done so previously, is reported cash positions fail to take in tax liabilities. The last time I conducted my analysis was in 2013, so perhaps it's time for an update. A small handful of companies actually have positive net cash. Apple was one of them then, and is one of them now. Yes, companies in general could spend their reported cash numbers, but to do so would further leverage their balance sheets with debt. Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

China's Forex Reserves Drop Most On Record: What Does It Mean? Inflation Tsunami? Posted: 08 Oct 2015 12:29 AM PDT Bloomberg reports China's Foreign Reserves Post Record Quarterly Drop on Yuan. China's foreign-exchange reserves fell by a record in the third quarter as the central bank sold dollars to support the yuan after a surprise Aug. 11 devaluation sparked the currency's steepest slide in two decades. The stockpile plunged by $180 billion in the three months through September to $3.51 trillion, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data released by the People's Bank of China on Wednesday. China's Forex Reserves Note that China's Forex reserves are down about $500 billion from the 2014 peak. So what's it mean?    "Bombshell Event of the Year"  Peter Schiff predicted a Bombshell Event in November of 2013. Bombshell Quotes The following "bombshell" quotes are from The Schiff Report (11/22/2013). "If the Fed were to pull back, if it was to taper and eventually stop buying bonds, it's not only the absence of Fed buying that would crush the market, private buyers, particularly the leveraged speculators, why would anybody buy a 10-year treasury yielding what, 2.8%, or even a 30-year treasury at 3.9%, why would you do that?" "But here's the biggest bombshell of the week, maybe of the year. While everybody was focusing their attention on what the Fed didn't even say, they were pretending the Fed said they were going to taper ... nobody paid attention to what China actually did say. Because China announced the mother of all tapering. China finally came out and admitted that a further expansion of their foreign currency reserves is no longer in China's interest." "Now what does that mean? If China isn't going to expand its balance sheet anymore, that means it has to stop buying treasuries. .... [very long winded and incorrect analysis] ... The truth is, if China means what it says, the Fed is going to have to back up the truck. Not just not taper, but they are going to have to significantly increase the amount of monthly QE that they do, in order to pick up China's slack. That's what's going to happen in 2014. If Janet Yellen surprises me and tapers, she's going to be untapering quick, because she is going to have to pick up missing demand that the Chinese no longer supply." "When China stops expanding its balance sheet, that also means that the Chinese currency is going to appreciate, and China said it will allow that appreciation to happen. ... US is going to get hit with a tsunami of inflation. ... I think we have broken the short-term downtrend in oil ... Consumers not only will have to deal with higher interest rates, they will also have higher fuel bills." Remarkable Set of Wrong Predictions In One Video Fed would not taper (Tapering finished) No one would buy 10-year treasuries at 2.8% (yield is now 2.04%) Fed would have to pick up slack when China stopped accumulating treasuries (Nope) Downturn in oil over (Nope - clearly not then - perhaps now) Higher fuel bills (Nope -  clearly not then - perhaps now ) US consumers will see higher interest rates (Nope - But is the Fed going to hike now? Peter care to predict?) Tsunami of inflation (Clearly laughable) Yuan will appreciate when China stops buying treasuries (Nope - China had to prop up the yuan) Painful Analysis I believe we have a perfect 8-8, all from a single video. That said, I agree with Schiff's view that QE was unwarranted. The reason is not that it would unleash a "tsunami of inflation" but rather QE helped spawn bubbles that will pop. I also agree with Schiff on other things like free markets.  But, another round of asset deflation is coming (I believe Schiff would agree), and in such an environment there is no reason to expect treasury yields to soar. China actually had to devalue the yuan because of market pressures. In August, Bloomberg phrased it this way "China Sells U.S. Treasuries to Support Yuan" Capital flight in China is a huge problem, precisely where Schiff never would have thought. And here's a final bit of icing that China bulls need to ponder: The yuan overtook Japan's yen to become the fourth most-used currency for global payments in August, rising to its highest ranking ever and boosting its claim for reserve status at the International Monetary Fund. Drumroll .... The proportion of transactions denominated in yuan climbed to a record 2.79 percent in August, from 2.34 percent in July, according to a Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications statement on October 6, 2015. Predictions It is not easy to make predictions (especially about the future) to paraphrase Yogi Berra. I have made a number of  questionable calls myself. In 2013 I sided with the ECRI on a recession, but at least we had a slowdown. I have another US recession call in now. It may or may not happen, but I did call a Canadian recession right on the nose this year. I called a top on the S&P 500 about 500 points ago. Oops.  Painfully awful. I failed to see how another round of QE would ignite the markets. In retrospect, it think much of what we see has more to do with ECB president Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech than anything the Fed did. Regardless, I missed it. I believe another asset bubble bust is around the bend. And if that is true, I fail to see how high inflation comes from it. I did call the 2007 top within a few percent. And I remained steadfast throughout that hyperinflation or even high inflation was an absurdity.  Yet, I liked gold, and still do (but without ever putting any price targets on it). Beauty and accuracy is in the eyes of the beholder, but I point out my own mistakes or someone will do it for me. As hard as it is to get everything right, it is equally difficult to get everything wrong. But there it is, in video form. Bernanke is not the only one who needs to self-assess (see Ben Bernanke: Superman or Fool?). So do I, Peter Schiff, and everyone else in the industry, continually. Inflation Tsunami? Someday, one of these inflation tsunami calls will be correct, but I think we see another deflationary asset bubble burst first. Given monstrous levels of debt at the consumer and corporate levels, given the US is not Brazil, and given poor demographic characteristics, I am waiting for an explanation as to how we get an asset bubble burst that results in an inflation tsunami. I did not understand in 2004, 2008, 2012, 2014, and I still don't know now. Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Campaign Tracking Without Going Crazy: Keeping Order in AdWords Optimization - Moz Blog

Campaign Tracking Without Going Crazy: Keeping Order in AdWords Optimization

Posted by anthonycoraggio

Pay-per-click advertising generates vast amounts of data, which presents us with tremendous potential for optimization and success. However, this formidable sword cuts both ways—even skilled managers can quickly find themselves adrift if tests and changes are not carefully tracked. Here's a quick, actionable guide to keeping order in your AdWords account with a simple and professional activity log.

The philosophy of orderly management

Good Adwords management is an exacting science—every tweak and change made should be for a specific reason, with a particular goal in mind. Think in terms of the scientific method: we're always moving forward from hypothesis, to test, to result, and back again.

When it comes time to evaluate the results of these changes and iterate to the next step, it's very important to know exactly what changes were made (and when). Likewise, when the numbers break unexpectedly, it's vital to be able to eliminate as many variables as possible as quickly as possible in our analysis. Many of us operate in collaborative environments, so this information needs to be readily accessible.

To be able to do that, we need a system that defines when and where these changes happened, and clearly explains the nature of the change. Beyond that, we also need to keep it user-friendly for two very important reasons. First, many of us operate in collaborative environments, so this information needs to be readily accessible to teammates, supervisors, and clients that may need it. Second, it's vital to remember that the most elaborate, brilliantly-detailed tracking plan is going to be useless if you don't actually use it consistently. To get started building a good system, let's take a look at the tools we have at hand.

Tools of the trade

AdWords changelog

The first and most obvious tool that might come to mind is the Adwords native changelog, but this should be viewed as a tool of last resort in most cases. Anyone that has had to dig through that information line-by-line trying to diagnose an issue will tell you that it's less than optimal, even with the improved filtering options Google has provided. The crux of the issue here is that there is no indicator of intent—why was the change made? Was it a considered part of a test? What other changes were a part of the same move made?

That said, the changelog can be a handy feature when it comes to quick refreshers on a former budget cap or tracing a trend in bids—especially when downloaded to Excel. Just don't rely on it for everything!

Google Analytics annotations

This is our second UI option, and a key one. Obviously this isn't in AdWords itself (though that would be a lovely feature), but if you spend even half your time in online marketing, chances are you've got GA open in a second tab or window already! If you commit the effort to nothing else, do it for this. Placing annotations for major changes or tests doesn't only help you—it provides a touchpoint for anyone else that might need to look into traffic ups and downs, and can save hours of time in the future.. Note that I said "major"—remember that this is a shared system, and you can easily swamp it if you get too granular.

Spreadsheets

This is where most of my logs go, as proper coding and some simple filtering makes it a breeze to find the information you need quickly. I'll get into more detail on practical usage below, but basically this is where the when/where/why goes for future reference. My preference here is usually to use Google Sheets for the simple collaboration features, but you can do just as well with a shared Excel file on OneDrive.

Project management tools

Keeping your test tracking connected to and aligned with your project management tools is always wise. There are myriad project management software tools out there, but I favor agile PM for SEM applications—Trello, Jira, Mingle, Basecamp, and more are all useful. The key here is really that your activity and test logs are easily available wherever you keep project resources, and linked to from whatever cards or items are associated to a particular test. For example, if you have a task card titled "Client-128: A/B Ad Test For {Campaign>Ad Group}", note "per task Client-128" in your activity log and link directly to that card if your tool permits it. You can also link to the activity log from the card or a project resource file if you're using a cloud sheet, as in Google Docs Sheets.

Creating a system & putting it all together

Now you know all the tools—here's how to put them together. To get you started, there are two primary areas you'll want to address with your activity log: ongoing changes/optimizations, and major planned tests.

Tracking ongoing changes: the standard activity log

The standard activity log is your rock. It's the one point where the hundreds of changes and thoughts the human brain could never hope to perfectly recall will always be, ready to answer any question you (or your client, or your boss) might come up with down the line. An activity log should, at minimum, tell us the following:

• What happened?
• When did it happen?
• Who was involved?
• Why did it happen?

If I notice an inflection point on a particular graph starting on 9/28 and need more information, I should be able to go back and see that User X paused out Campaign Y that morning, because they had spoken with the client and learned that budget was to be shifted out to Campaign Z. Instant context, and major time saved! If I want to know more, I know who to ask and how to ask the right question for a quick and productive conversation.

Ongoing optimizations and relatively small changes can stack up very quickly over time, so we also want to be sure that it's an easy system to sort through. This is part of why I prefer to use a spreadsheet, and recommend including a couple columns for simple filtering and searching. Placing a unique sequential ID on every item gives you a reliable point of return if you muddle up the order or dates, and a note indicating the type and magnitude of the change makes searching for the highlights far easier.

Anything you can do with your chosen tool to simplify and speed up the process is fair game, as long as you can reasonably expect others to understand what you've put in there. Timestamp hotkeys and coded categories (e.g. "nkw" denoting a negative keyword expansion) in particular can save headaches and encourage compliance. Finally, always keep your logs open. It's easy to forget early on, and dragging your cursor through just a few extra clicks to open them back up when you're in the zone can be a bigger obstacle than you might expect!

Formal test tracking

When you're conducting formal A/B or multivariate tests in your account, a higher standard of documentation is a good idea. Even if you're not presenting this to a client formally, put together a quick line of data detailing the following for every major test you plan and execute:

• Purpose. Every test should have a reason behind it. Documenting this is a good exercise in holding yourself to account on smart testing in general, but this is most important for future analysis and test iterations—it's what sets up the "why."
• Hypothesis. Marketers have a reputation for playing fast and loose with statistical methods, but remember that for results you can trust, you should have a falsifiable hypothesis. Again, get this down so you can say what exactly your results do and do not prove.
• Procedure. Exactly what it sounds like—what did you do in implementing this test? You need to record what the controlled and experimental variables were, so you can appropriately account for what might have influenced your results and what might be worth trying again differently in the future.
• Results. Again, easy—what was the outcome? Don't be stingy with the details here; confidence level, effect size, and the actual ad copy or landing page that was tested should be recorded for posterity and later reference.

I like putting at least the hypothesis and results in a combined test results spreadsheet for quick future reference. Over time, as people shift through roles, what was tested a year ago can quickly fade from organizational memory. When planning your next test, you need to be able to quickly go back and see if it's been done before, and whether it's worth trying again. I've seen a lot of wasted duplication of effort in companies I've consulted for this exact reason—don't let that be you!

I also recommend plugging in a quick line in my standard activity log for each action on a test (i.e. launched, finalized, paused), since these are often pretty high-impact changes and it's helpful to have this information in your go-to spot.

Make it work

I'll close with a brief reiteration of what I believe is the most important part of activity logging and test tracking: actually doing it. Internal adoption of any new tool or process is almost always the toughest hurdle (ask anyone who's ever overseen a CRM implementation). As with any habit, there are a few simple behaviors that can help you make good tracking practices a reliable part of your routine:

• Start small. It won't hurt to start by logging just the biggest, most important activities. You'll have an easier time remembering to do it, and you'll soon start doing it for more and more tweaks automatically.
• Be accountable. Even if you're the only one touching the account, tell someone else what you're doing and ask them to check in on you. There's nothing like social accountability to reinforce a behavior!
• Have a goal in mind. If you don't feel a sense of purpose in what you're doing, you're probably just not going to do it. Make a pact with yourself or your team that you'll review your activity logging one week from when you start and share thoughts and ideas on improving it. You've then got a clear and present point of reference for success and moving forward.

Do you have any favorite tricks or tactics for keeping good track of your SEM campaigns? Share them with us in the comments!

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