Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Fight for $15 vs. Drive to "Completely Obviate" Need for Fast Food Workers
- Wholesale Trade Inventories Surge Led By Autos
- Economists Blame Mild Weather For Poor Retail Sales
- US Import/Export Prices Show Cross Border Deflationary Pressures
- China Posts Lowest Business Sentiment on Record as Deflationary Pressures Rise
Fight for $15 vs. Drive to "Completely Obviate" Need for Fast Food Workers Posted: 10 Nov 2015 10:10 PM PST Fight for $15 Protests Sweep US The fight for a "living wage" of $15 per hour is raging the US. Here are a few recent headlines.
Fast Food Robots Those fighting for a $15 living wage need consider Hamburgers, Coffee, Guitars, and Cars: A Report from Lemnos Labs. Momentum showed off its prototype hamburger-making robot, which is expressly designed to displace two to three full-time kitchen workers, thus saving fast-food companies up to $90,000 per franchise per year, or $9 billion nationwide. In a matter of minutes, the machine can grill a beef patty, layer it with lettuce, tomatoes, pickles, and onions, marry it with a bun, and wrap it up to go. (I saw it with my own eyes.)Obviate the Workers By all means let's pay workers $15 an hour, the ones with a job. But let's also pay 80% of the current set of fast food workers precisely what they are worth: Nothing. That may sound harsh, but it's simple economic reality. Here's the real deal: Once machines cost less than worker salaries and benefits, the replaced human workers are essentially worthless. It's not quite that simple because many people, myself included like human contact. For example, I do not use self-checkout lanes. Yet, I have to wonder: How long will it be before there is an extra charge for having a human checkout clerk? And at a fast food or chain restaurant, I don't care is I have human contact or not. Indeed, I would rather click buttons myself, accepting responsibility for my order. To top off the benefits, there is no need to tip a robot. Counterproductive Push for $15 The push for $15 is counterproductive. Not only will higher minimum wages displace workers, if everyone's wage rose, $15 would no longer be a "living wage". And the higher the wages and benefits, the greater the incentive for companies to replace workers with hardware and software robots. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
Wholesale Trade Inventories Surge Led By Autos Posted: 10 Nov 2015 09:39 AM PST Autos are the sales Energizer bunny. Nothing seems to slow them down. Wholesale Inventories Surprised to the Upside, led by autos. Wholesale inventories rose 0.5 percent in September following an upward revised 0.3 percent gain in August. The September build appears to be intentional based on a 0.5 percent rise in September sales that keeps the stock-to-sales ratio for wholesalers unchanged at 1.31.Reflections on Batteries At some point batteries die. When that happens to auto sales remains to be seen, but what cannot last forever clearly won't. On the personal side, I am headed from Zion to Bryce Canyon National Park for a couple of days. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
Economists Blame Mild Weather For Poor Retail Sales Posted: 10 Nov 2015 09:25 AM PST Goldilocks Weather Bad For Shopping Weather in the past two months has generally been unseasonably pleasant. Economists say this is bad for shopping as Redbook's Same Store Sales Report shows retail sales year-over year are only up 1.1%. Sales in Redbook's same-store sample slowed sharply in the November 7 week, to a year-on-year plus 1.1 percent from an already moderate 1.9 percent in the prior week. Unseasonably warm weather has been hurting sales of seasonal goods, which could be a factor in Friday's retail sales report for October. Turning back to November and this report, readings in the early part of the month will be forgotten as attention turns to the holiday kickoff late in the month.Weather Comments Apparently, weather needs to be just right, not for comfort levels, but to induce shoppers to buy. Supposedly, it's important that weather not be too good. Colder weather would be good now, but colder weather in January won't be. I propose comparing weekly retail sales to the same week as last year or to the monthly average a year ago is essentially meaningless, if not outright ridiculous. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
US Import/Export Prices Show Cross Border Deflationary Pressures Posted: 10 Nov 2015 08:36 AM PST There's a slew of US economic reports out today. Let's take a look starting with a look at Import and Export Prices as described by Econoday. Cross border price pressures continue to move lower. Import prices fell 0.5 percent in October including a steep 5 tenths downward revision to September to minus 0.6 percent. And it's not just gasoline! Nonpetroleum import prices fell 0.4 percent for the 10th decline in a row. Year-on-year, total import prices are down 10.5 percent, which is right in line with trend, with nonpetroleum down 3.4 percent for the largest drop since October 2009.Import/Export Prices vs. Consensus Economists were pretty close to the mark on export prices, but missed the boat totally on imports. The consensus import price change was -0.1% with the actual result of -0.5%, outside the range of any economist's estimate. Falling prices are a good thing actually, but the Fed sure does not see it that way. As noted just a bit ago ...
Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
China Posts Lowest Business Sentiment on Record as Deflationary Pressures Rise Posted: 10 Nov 2015 08:11 AM PST Markit reports China Posts Lowest Business Sentiment On Record. Data only dates to November of 2009, so that makes sentiment worst since the recovery. However, sentiment is so low, I it's possible sentiment is worse that any time in the past 20 or even 30 years, had it only been measured. Let's take a look at the report. The latest Markit Business Outlook Survey signalled the weakest level of optimism amongst Chinese companies since data collection began late-2009. This was highlighted by a net balance of just +17% of firms expecting business activity to rise over the next year, down from a previous low of +23% in June.China Business Expectations Deflationary Pressures Rise Sentiment largely reflects continuing deflationary cost pressures on manufacturers. For details, please see China's PPI Drops 44th Month, Chinese Trade Slumps on Waning Demand, Deflationary Pressures. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
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