sâmbătă, 28 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


National Front Leading Polls for French Regional Elections Dec 6, Dec 13; Center-Right Squeezed

Posted: 28 Nov 2015 03:19 PM PST

French Regional Elections are coming up on December 6 and December 13.

At stake are the presidencies of the 18 Regions of France. 12 Regions are on continental France, plus Corsica and 5 more overseas.

The regions do not have legislative autonomy, but they do manage sizable budgets. And the regional elections are often taken as a mid-term opinion poll.

National Front Ahead in Polls

European polls are frequently inaccurate, but as it stands, the center is being squeezed by Marine Le Pen's Eurosceptic and anti-immigration National Front party (FN) on the right, and on the other side by the radical left.

Via translation, 20 Minutes reports National Front Ahead in Regional Election Polls.
According to an exclusive survey by Harris Interactive for 20 Minutes, less than one in two French (43%) claiming to vote in the 1st round believes that the attacks will play their choice. And only one in four surveyed believes this will play "a lot" (26%). "There is not today, when questioned French, immediate relationship between this situation of tension and electoral behavior," said Jean-Daniel Levy, director of the department "Politics and Opinion" Harris Interactive.

According to the survey, the National Front collects 27% of voting intentions ahead of the radical socialist Left Party-Party with (26%),and Republicans-UDI-MoDem (25%). Then come the lists of Europe-Ecology-The Greens (7%) left the Communist Party-Front (5%) tied with sovereignist party France Arise.

"At present, the situation appears favorable to the National Front and the left. The FN obtained the highest percentage of the vote in a poll for regional. As for the left, it is admittedly scattered, but it has a certain mobilization, "said Jean-Daniel Levy. For the united right in the center, the situation seems more complicated inversely. "It now seems squeezed between FN and formations of the left," says pollster.

Finally, the assumption that a regional council is directed by a majority FN is considered "least desirable" by the French. The situation seems paradoxical while the FN has the highest rate of voting intention.
Center-Right Squeezed

The center appears to be squeezed between the far left and the Eurosceptic National Front. But I don't understand the wording "only one in four surveyed believes terrorism will play a lot". 26% seems like a lot, especially in countries with a multitude of small parties.

Moreover, that French Unemployment Rises Most in Three Years to Record Level should also play into the National Front's hands.

We will find out soon enough, but the Nannycrats in Brussels are likely quite worried.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

French Unemployment Rises Most in Three Years to Record Level

Posted: 28 Nov 2015 09:22 AM PST

The recovery in France appears to have stalled already, and this is from employment data before the terrorist attacks. Via translation from Les Echos ...
The number of Class A unemployed rose by 42,000 last month. This is the largest increase in nearly three years. Overseas included, France now has 3,810,000 unemployed, a new record.

The major disappointment is for the Government, which hoped that the sharp decline in September  finally marked the beginning of the reversal "credible" and "sustainable" in the curve of unemployment to which Hollande has conditioned his candidacy for re-election in 2017.

"These figures are not satisfactory," euphemized Myriam El Khomri, the labor minister, while adding they "must still be interpreted with caution because the results of recent months experiencing strong variations."

Economists point out that the attacks in Paris strengthen the uncertainties about the pace of recovery in France. They fear a decline in activity in tourism and catering that would inevitably damage employment.
compare the above assessment with an amazing statement by economist Nouriel Roubini: "Positive Impacts of Paris Attacks Modest Unless More Attacks Follow"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Around the World in 15 Exotic Snacks [Infographic]

Posted: 27 Nov 2015 07:31 PM PST

Nothing for experiencing a culture like getting a mouthful of their favorite snack food, so the next time you decide to go wandering around the world, be sure to check out the local cuisine with help from Expedia.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

via expedia


Seth's Blog : Past performance is not indicative of future results



Past performance is not indicative of future results

This is clearly and demonstrably true of mutual funds. It's easy to confirm.

And yet...

We are very uncomfortable with randomness. So the newspaper does a 12 page section of mutual funds, filled with articles and ads and charts, all touting past performance. 

Superstition is what we call the belief in causation due to a mistaken correlation of unrelated data. A broken mirror doesn't actually cause seven years of bad luck, and cheering in a certain way isn't going to help the Yankees, sorry.

Of course, we don't live in a completely random world. The scientific method and statistics make it more likely than ever that you can find trends that actually matter. 

The hard part is accepting that the random things actually are unpredictable, and refusing to spend time or money guessing on what can't be reliably guessed. It frees up a lot of time and resources to focus on the things that are actually worth measuring.

       

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vineri, 27 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Thin Crowds, Subdued Shopping on Black and Blue Friday; Thanksgiving Shopping a Bust

Posted: 27 Nov 2015 09:45 AM PST

Retailers, especially big-box retailers will be blue if light shopping carries over for the rest of the season. The Wall Street Journal reports Thinner Crowds on Black Friday.
Millions of Americans left their Thanksgiving meals to hit stores across the country in an annual shopping ritual, but the crowds on early Black Friday morning were thinner than years past at some malls and shopping districts.

Thinner crowds could spell problems for retailers, some of whom entered the holidays warning of uneven consumer demand and elevated levels of inventory. But the smaller crowds could also reflect deeper changes in how Americans shop: Increasingly, they are spending more online and making fewer visits to stores.

Driving up to a nearly empty parking lot at a Wal-Mart in Houston on Friday morning, Dora Rodriguez, 39 years old, stopped her silver hatchback in surprise and called out her window to another shopper: "Excuse me, the Black Friday sale—it's ended already?"

Thirty-six percent of consumers said they planned to shop online only during this year's holiday season, up from 19% who said so last year, according to the investment bank Jefferies. By comparison, just 18% of consumers said they planned to shop only in physical stores this year, down from 35% who said so a year ago.

"The competition is led by Amazon and that factors into how other retailers set their prices," said Paul Trussell, a Deutsche Bank analyst.
Subdued Start to Shopping Season

Reuters reports Black Friday Crowds Thin in Subdued Start to U.S. Holiday Shopping.
Crowds were thin at U.S. stores and shopping malls in the early hours of Black Friday and on Thanksgiving evening as shoppers responded to early holiday discounts with caution and bad weather hurt turnout.

"We believe Thanksgiving shopping was a bust," analysts at Suntrust Robinson Humphrey said in a research note. "Members of our team who went to the malls first had no problem finding parking or navigating stores."

Scott Tuhy, vice-president at Moody's who tracks companies like Macy's Inc (M.N), said crowds on Thursday evening in New Jersey were steady but not busy. He said some stores saw a fair amount of activity around orders that were placed online and picked up in stores.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Unbelievable Lie of the Day: Turkey Says It Had Not Recognized the Aircraft as Russian When it Shot it Down

Posted: 27 Nov 2015 12:07 AM PST

In the wake of conflicting flight path information with Russian and Turkey differing on the flight path of the Russian aircraft that Turkey downed over Syria, comes the incredulous claim that Turkey did not recognize the aircraft as Russian when it shot the aircraft down.

This unbelievable statement comes as Hollande and Putin Seek Common Ground but Remain at Odds Over Syrian Targets.
The leaders of France and Russia held more than three hours of talks at the Kremlin focusing on the fate of the Syrian president and on which parts of the armed opposition should be protected from air strikes.

The summit was part of Mr Hollande's push for a broader coalition against Islamist radicals Isis after the attacks in Paris a week ago.

After the talks, Mr Hollande said he and Mr Putin had agreed on three basic points. "First, we will intensify the exchange of intelligence and any other information between our militaries. Second, the strikes on Isis will intensify and become part of a co-ordinated campaign in order to make them more efficient. Third — and Mr Putin also stressed this — we must focus our air strikes on Isis and other terrorist groups."

The gulf between the leaders on the future of Mr Assad remained as wide as ever. Mr Hollande reiterated his position that Mr Assad "cannot play a role in the future of this country" but Mr Putin rebuffed him, repeating his standard phrase that only the Syrian people could determine the future of their country.

The issue of widely diverging goals of the external actors in the Syrian war gained renewed urgency after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet on Tuesday which it said had violated its airspace. Ankara's move is believed to have been partly motivated by the fact that Russia's air force has been bombarding Turkmen villages in northern Syria, an ethnic group that Turkey views as an ally.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that Ankara had not recognised the aircraft as Russian when it shot it down. Following a slew of announcements of economic retaliation against Turkey, Mr Putin angrily dismissed this claim as "impossible" and said Russia had provided the US with information on the time and location of its sorties.

"Since Turkey is a member of Nato, they should have known. Did they think it was a US plane?" Mr Putin said. "All we hear is lame excuses. Well, that's their choice, it's not our choice."
Impossible

Putin's claim is correct. It is impossible to believe Turkey did not know who it was shooting at.

In fact, the claim is so absurd, and so much an obvious bald-faced lie, one has to question Turkey's claim that the Russian aircraft did indeed violate Turkey's air space.

Competing Claims



The above image from Turkish military releases recording of 'warnings' sent to downed warplane, Russia disputes flight path.

Turkey claims it issued warnings. I do not believe those warning claims are in dispute. What is in dispute are conflicting flight path claims.

If Russia violated Turkish air space, it was for at most a few seconds. But here's the real question at this point: After Turkey's unbelievable lie that it did not know what it was shooting at, how can anyone possibly believe Turkey, on anything, related to this matter?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock 

Damn Cool Pics


Damn Cool Pics


Posted: 27 Nov 2015 07:23 PM PST
Sylvester Stallone recently showed off his beautiful family on the red carpet for the premiere of "Creed." Stallone is a lucky man. He's had a great career and now he's surrounded by beautiful women.























Posted: 27 Nov 2015 04:42 PM PST
This is not the type of thing you want your mom to talk about on social media.




















Posted: 27 Nov 2015 04:38 PM PST
If you're going shopping on Black Friday, just try not to get bit. You don't want to turn into one of them.