Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Growth in Service PMI Shrinks Sharply Posted: 19 Dec 2015 06:22 PM PST On Friday, the PMI Flash Services reading registered growth that fell sharply, not only well below the Econoday Consensus estimate of 56.1, but also substantially below the lowest estimate of 55.8. The services PMI is slowing sharply this month, to 53.7 vs 56.1 for the final November reading and vs 56.5 for the flash reading. This is the lowest reading in a year reflecting the slowest growth in new orders since January and a fifth straight month of contraction in backlog orders. Optimism over future growth is understandably down, reflecting what the report says is a subdued global outlook, election uncertainty and softer demand in the energy sector. Price readings remain subdued with inputs at their weakest pace since February. Despite weakness in orders and the downcast outlook, hiring is described as "resilient". Given weakness in global demand, the service economy is the nation's bread and butter and today's report, though only one data point, hints at slowing for the economy.I tend not to report on the Markit readings for services, instead reporting on ISM readings. But this was sharp divergence. The next ISM services report will be interesting to watch. If services contract, recession will be at hand. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
How Chicago "Works": Tax and Graft; Who Benefits? Posted: 19 Dec 2015 02:28 PM PST On October 28, the Chicago City Council passed the largest property-tax hike in modern city history by a vote of 36-14, approving Mayor Rahm Emanuel's 2016 budget proposal. Taxpayers will have to fork over another $588 million property-tax hike to be phased in over the next four years. Some businesses and taxpayers will simply flee, joining what now is best viewed as the "Great Illinois Exodus". Taxpayers Lose, Who Wins? Someone always benefits from these tax-and-spend schemes. Who is it? The Illinois Policy Institute has the answer in Meet the politicians who stand to get rich off of Chicago's massive property-tax hike. The PlayersOther Winners In addition to politically connected law firms specializing in tax appeals, the public unions benefit, and corrupt politicians who support tax hikes to buy votes from public unions also win. The losers are the businesses and taxpayers in Illinois. Great Illinois Exodus In increasing numbers, residents and businesses have voted with their feet as noted in Get Me the Hell Out of Here. For further discussion, please see ...
Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
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