Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Oregon Tax Revenue from Measure 66 is 50% Short of Predictions; Oregon Grants Unions 4.75% Pay Hike
• 26 of Last 88 Trading Days have been 90% Days (Either Up or Down); 7 More Lean Years in Stock Market?
• Movie Attendance Drops to 1997 Level; Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise; Last Hurrah for Housing
• How Many New Home Sales Was That?

Oregon Tax Revenue from Measure 66 is 50% Short of Predictions; Oregon Grants Unions 4.75% Pay Hike Posted: 31 Aug 2010 09:15 PM PDT From the dysfunctional state of Oregon comes news that Measure 66 fell about 50% short of its revenue predictions. Balance that with 4.75% pay hikes and it adds up with a continuing refusal by Oregon to address its problems. Oregon Grants Unions 4.75% Pay Hike 5 percent pay increase for Oregon state union employees begins Wednesday A step pay increase of nearly 5 percent for Oregon state workers represented by unions goes into effect Wednesday. The 4.75 percent increase will cost the state as much as $16 million through the end of the two-year budget period. Measure 66 Falls Short Oregon tax revenues from Measure 66 coming up short of predictions Early indicators suggest the state won't receive nearly as much as officials expected from a tax increase on wealthy Oregonians -- raising questions of whether January's bitterly fought election was worth it. The latest numbers show Measure 66, which set higher tax rates on households making more than $250,000 a year, and on individual filers making half that, has brought in about $70 million in additional collections to date. "We're thinking we're right around half of what we expected about this time," said Paul Warner, head of the Legislative Revenue Office. Here's the deal. Oregon raised taxes for the benefit of unions and now they have to raise taxes again because the state only got half as much revenue from the tax hike as expected. When does the madness stop? I have written about Oregon a lot recently. Dysfunctional Oregon August 22, 2010: Dysfunctional Oregon Sight unseen, I am willing to state that Oregon should get rid of all 64 state boards, no matter what they are supposed to do. Sight seen, it's time Oregonian voters relegate Gov. Ted Kulongoski to the ash heap of history. Overoptimism Oregon Style August 18, 2010: Oregon Wins Blue Ribbon for Unfounded Optimism; Everything "Weaker than Expected" In July of 2009 state revenue projections were $222.8 million to the plus side. Now just one year later, smack in the midst of a "recovery", a $577.2 million June 2010 deficit is too optimistic by as much as another $500 million. Congratulations of sorts go to Oregon for winning the blue ribbon for unfounded optimism. Oregon has already cut state spending by 9%. Another 9% may be on the way. We can now add Measure 66 to the list of overoptimistic misses in Oregon. Edge of the Financial Chasm July 25, 2010: Edge of Financial Chasm Four Problems Oregon Faces. Problem 1: Our income is shrinking Problem 2: We have more people in need Problem 3: We've locked up a lot of money Problem 4: We can't grow our way out End of the Line for Meaningful Can-Kicking Delays When it comes to state budgets, the low lying fruit has been picked. Indeed all the fruit has been picked and next year's harvest has been spoken for as well. Thus it's the end of the line for state's ability to kick the can down the road in a meaningful way, if employment does not dramatically pick up soon. Here's a hint: it won't. Oregon Taxpayers at Huge Risk over PERS July 24, 2010: Oregon's Public Employee Retirement System (PERS) in Deep Trouble, Taxpayers on the Hook If we finish the year here the system will only be 70% funded. Pray tell what happens if the stock market finished the year down a modest 15% and is flat next year? Notice the article says "Actual pension rates vary by individual employer". Although the rates will vary, it is not "employers" who pick up the tab. Rather it is taxpayers who have to pay taxes to pick up the tab. If articles like the one quoted explained things properly, there would be much more needed outrage. The system is broke and the only way to fix it is to get rid of it. Defined benefit plans at taxpayer expense have to go. Oregon Faces Decade of Budget Deficits May 23, 2010: Governor's Study Shows Oregon Faces Decade of Budget Deficits; Support for Unions Wanes in Illinois A study conducted by Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski shows that Oregon will not be bailed out by a rebounding economy, assuming of course the economy rebounds at all. Oregon Overestimates the Recovery, Underestimates What Needs to be Done My sense is that states are all overestimating what the recovery will do. That aside, Oregon is a step ahead of others in realizing the recovery alone will not fix the problem. The report made no recommendations even though it is crystal clear what needs to happen. For starters, the state needs to kill defined benefit plans for new hires. Next, the state needs to outsource everything possible with the goal of getting rid of all public unions. Anything else is just pecking at the fringes of the problem. Business Owners Move Out January 27, 2010: Oregon's Death Spiral; Business Owners Say "I'm moving out" On Tuesday, unions in Oregon won a charred earth victory that will drive already troubled Oregon, straight off the cliff. Oregon voters passed Measure 66 which raises tax rates on individuals who earn more than $125,000 and couples with incomes greater than $250,000. Voters also passed Measure 67 which increases business taxes. Complete fools in Oregon just voted to save bloated union salaries and pensions, while driving away the real source of tax revenue, private business. Unions that take hold of states inevitably wreck them. Oregon should take a good hard look in the mirror. It will see a reflection of Michigan. Good luck with that. Look's like that was a decent call on Measure 66. Increased taxes will drive away business. For whose benefit are these tax hikes? Unions that need to be eliminated. Oregon's problems cannot and will not go away as long as political pandering to unions continues. Public union salaries and benefits are Oregon's biggest problem. A tip of the hat to Oregon Live for excellent articles on the economic plight of Oregon. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

26 of Last 88 Trading Days have been 90% Days (Either Up or Down); 7 More Lean Years in Stock Market? Posted: 31 Aug 2010 12:20 PM PDT Here is an interesting snip from August 31 Market Commentary by Art Cashin for UBS. Sorry, no link. Monday's market evaporated nearly all the gains from Friday's rally. Despite lighter volume, it was a 90% down day. That means the bears got a lopsided advantage in negative breadth and negative volume. In Friday's rally, the bulls had had a similar 90% advantage. Robert McHugh of Main Line Investors says 26 of the last 88 trading days have been 90% days – one way or another. Any wonder the public is wary. Are these 90% Days a Good Thing? While the big boys push the market around, small investors have thrown in the towel and are not coming back. Market volume now consists of black boxes pushing all stocks one way or the other on 30% of the days. Is this a good thing? For who? Investors or Goldman Sachs? Holding the Line Today, the 1040 level on the S&P held for about the 8th time on "fabulous" news consumer confidence rose to 53. Bear in mind number in the 70's are typical of recession lows. How long the 1040 level can hold is a mystery, but each bounce seems to be weaker and weaker. Last Friday, I noted Market Cheers 1.6% Growth; Treasuries Hammered; while asking "what's next?" We have a partial answer already. Treasuries have regained the entire selloff that started (and ended) on the "great news" that 2nd quarter GDP was +1.6% instead of the expected +1.4%. Nevermind that growth was revised down twice from above +2.5% to +1.6%. Looking ahead, I expect GDP to be negative in the 3rd quarter. Art Cashin's 17.6 Year Cycles A little over a year ago Art Cashin commented Dow Trapped in 17-Year Cycle Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, offered CNBC his stock-market insights. Cashin decried the idea of a second stimulus, in light of the "infamous" first attempt. "There was no 'stimulus' in the stimulus package. It was mostly social engineering," Cashin said. Thus, talk of a new plan is shaking markets with fears of even more debt — with "nothing to show for it." Cashin revisited his theory of "the 17.6-year cycle." "It's like the Biblical story of the fat and lean years. During the fat, you can throw a dart at the wall, and anything you buy goes up." He believes one such cycle spanned 1982 to 2000. And he notes that from "1966 to 1982, the Dow went to 1,000 — then went back down." Barry Ritholtz described the 17.6 year cycle in Art Cashin on Secular Cycles "Back On The Cycle – David Rosenberg, formerly chief economist at Merrill Lynch and now at Gluskin Sheff was a guest host on CNBC's Squawkbox this morning. During the discussion he alluded to an 18 year cycle in the market. Not to quibble but many traders have thought of it as the 17.6 year cycle. Here's how I outlined it back in May 2002: Yesterday, as the elders were being asked about the hiding place of the great Bull Market one of the fogeys mentioned the "near 18 year cycle." Like the fat and lean years, it refers to so-called "easy" times to make money in the market versus times requiring much harder work. The fogeys suggested it was near 18 years because it was approximately 17 years, 7 months. For ease of explanation to the juniors, one of the fogeys decimalized the number as 17.6 years so they could use their calculators. He then postulated this example – Let's say the markets topped out in about February 2000. Let's call that 2000.2. Subtract 17.6 and your back in about July 1982 (1982.60). The Dow was around 900. So you could see why those were a fat (easy) 17 years. Take away 17.6 again and you are back around January of 1965 and the Dow is around 900. (Yup – just like 1982.) Many twists and turns in those 17 years. Lots of chances to make money. But you had to work for every penny. Take away 17.6 again and you are back around May of 1947. The war is over. The Dow is around 170. Lots of prosperity ahead. Take away 17.6 and you are back around Sept of 1929 and the Dow is around 350. He began to go on. The juniors had had enough. Folks don't like to hear that you can do well only if you do your homework everyday. Having lived through two of those cycles, we can attest to the work cycle." From where the market is today, Cashin is essentially describing the Japanese scenario of two lost decades. That has been my preferred scenario for quite a long time. Japan's Lost Decades Rallies If Cashin is correct, and I believe he is, it's another 7 years of nowhere at best for the stock market. Nonetheless, there will be trading opportunities in both directions as the above chart from Business Insider shows. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Movie Attendance Drops to 1997 Level; Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise; Last Hurrah for Housing Posted: 31 Aug 2010 09:42 AM PDT Movie attendance is down but increased prices made up the difference for now. Bloomberg reports Summer Movie Box-Office Attendance Falls to Lowest Since 1997 Summer movie attendance fell to the lowest level since 1997, while soaring ticket prices produced record revenue for Hollywood studios and theater owners. The number of tickets sold from the first weekend of May through the U.S. Labor Day holiday is expected to drop 2.6 percent to 552 million, Hollywood.com Box-Office said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. That would be the lowest attendance since summer moviegoers bought 540.3 million tickets in 1997. "The movies just didn't excite people the way they needed to," Paul Dergarabedian, president of Hollywood.com Box-Office, said in an interview. "When you raise prices and perceive that quality goes down, you have a major problem." Summer box-office revenue will rise 2.4 percent to a record $4.35 billion in the U.S. and Canada as higher prices more than make up for the lower attendance, Hollywood.com estimates. The average ticket price will increase 5.1 percent to $7.88 from last year's $7.50, the biggest gain since a 6.3 percent jump in 2000, Hollywood.com said. The price-conscious majority appears to be overwhelmed by the price-insensitive wealthy, at least for the time being. How much longer this lasts with cheap movie rentals and another downturn in the economy remains to be seen. Regardless, the results portray an increasing dichotomy between the "haves" and the "have-nots". As long as Hollywood can get away with inceasing prices, they will do just that, even if it means an increasing percentage of customers are "priced out". Last Hurrah for Housing Case-Shiller Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rise More Than Forecast Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose more than forecast in June from a year earlier, reflecting the influence of a government tax incentive and a sign the market was stabilizing before sales plunged in July. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 4.2 percent from June 2009, the group said today in New York. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 3.5 percent advance. The Case-Shiller index is a moving three-month average, which means the June data are still being influenced by transactions in April and May that benefitted from the government incentive. A pullback in demand since the credit ended, mounting foreclosures and an unemployment rate near a 26- year high may weigh on prices in coming months. Nationally, prices increased 3.6 percent in the second quarter from the same time last year and were up 2.3 percent from the previous three months. San Francisco, San Diego Fifteen of the 20 cities in the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed a year-over-year increase, led by a 14 percent gain in San Francisco and an 11 percent increase in San Diego. Compared with the prior month, 17 of the 20 areas covered showed an increase on an unadjusted basis, led by 2.5 percent gains in Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis. Two cities were little changed and Las Vegas fell 0.6 percent. Builders such as KB Home and Lennar Corp. reported falling sales after April 30, the deadline for homebuyers to sign contracts to purchase a home to qualify for the extended tax credit. The deadline to close transactions by June 30 was later extended to Sept. 30. Donald Tomnitz, chief executive officer of D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, said he welcomes the end of federal homebuyer tax credits that boosted sales earlier in the year. Back to Normal "I don't want the tax credit to be re-enacted or be recreated or extended," Tomnitz said on an Aug. 3 conference call with investors. "We want to get back to a normalized market." Foreclosures may be an obstacle for the market for much of the year. A record 269,962 U.S. homes were seized from delinquent owners in the second quarter as lenders set a pace to claim more than 1 million properties by the end of 2010, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based data company. Last Hurrah for Housing Case-Shiller is a backward looking index. The increasing number of foreclosures, the complete collapse in new home sales, a massive increase in inventory, and the end of tax credits all suggest we are near the end of the line for this bounce in home prices. Interestingly, even the home builders are against another home tax credit. Is that reflective of the massive distortions caused by the credit, the realization the tax credit was useless, or the fact that homebuilders recognize there is little chance Congress will back another tax credit? Regardless, here's the deal: New Home Sales Consensus 330K, Actual 276K, a Record Low. As a followup please see How Many New Home Sales Was That? Expect to see new all time low prices in some cities later this year or next year as pent-up demand dries up along with incentives that merely brought that demand forward. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

How Many New Home Sales Was That? Posted: 31 Aug 2010 12:08 AM PDT People are still emailing me, making a mountain out of a molehill of a Rosenberg statement I quoted in Burning Down the House; New Home Sales Consensus 330K, Actual 276K, a Record Low; Nationwide, Zero New Homes Sold Above 750K I failed to comment yesterday on the huge miss by economists on consensus new home sales, but Rosenberg has some nice comments today in Breakfast with Dave. The high-end market, in particular, is under tremendous pressure. In fact, it is becoming non-existent. Guess how many homes prices above $750k managed to sell in July. Answer — zero, nada, rien; and for the second month in a row. Only 1,000 units priced above 500,000 moved last month. That's it! Over 80% of the homes that the builders managed to sell were priced for under $300,000. Just another sign of how this remains a full-fledged buyers' market — at least for the ones that can either afford to put down a downpayment or are creditworthy enough to secure a mortgage loan (keeping in mind that 25% of the household sector does have a sub-600 FICO score). How Many is Zero? There are a couple of issues here. 1. New home sales are recorded at contract signing. So recent closings at a higher rate do not count. Nor do existing home sales. Many of those complaining were looking at closing data or existing home sales. 2. The other factor is rounding error. Rosenberg should not have been so emphatic. From the Census Bureau New Home Sales Spreadsheet Table 2 - $750K home sold "(Z) Less than 500 units or less than 0.5 percent." Anyone targeting Rosenberg's statement is making a mountain out of a molehill. Let me put it this way "There was a statistically irrelevant number of new home sales above $750K, somewhere between zero and 500". This is not worth the amount of attention it has received. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Tip 2: Time-saving tools for keyword research

Hello

 

Yesterday we discussed the precise targeting offered by keywords. But even if a keyword is valuable, it might not be valuable for your business.

 

Today's lesson discusses how to find keywords that will be valuable to your business. Read it online at
http://www.seobook.com/learn-seo/keyword-research-strategies.php

 

Tomorrow, we cover how to use PPC ads (such as AdWords) to discover the value of different keywords to your business.

Cheers,
Aaron Wall

 

P.S. This article offers more background advice on keyword research
http://training.seobook.com/keyword-research-suggestion-tips
And you can view a valuable keyword research flowchart here http://www.seobook.com/keyword-research-strategy-flowchart

 

P.P.S. Did you know my private coaching club, "SEO BOOK CONFIDENTIAL", is an exclusive insiders group of some of the most influential and successful SEOs in the world? We quietly generate literally millions online for our clients and our own businesses——so can you imagine what it'd be like having us take a look at your SEO project?

 

Well here's the best part: inside the "SEO BOOK CONFIDENTIAL" forum, you'll be able to post all your problems and questions. You'll get specific advice from me and all the other top-level SEOs in our exclusive club. (Some of these guys charge upwards of $500 per hour... plus, even if you had the money to hire them, they're booked solid, so you couldn't anyway).

 

You'll also get the best of my free tools, exclusive premium tools, time-saving tutorials and cutting edge tips.

 

To discover more about our friendly community of SEOs——and how you can be getting one-to-one advice from us in the next five minutes——follow this link:
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To unsubscribe from the list follow this link http://www.seobook.com/autoresponder/unsubscribe/1/382346/e8da281c68153bd8937fe6a6e56c119d

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

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From Clicks to Conversions at the SEOmoz Training Raceway Posted: 31 Aug 2010 04:06 AM PDT Posted by Dana Lookadoo This post was originally in YOUmoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc. Day 1 of SEOmoz Pro Training was like being at a race track. The course careened from clicks to conversions and from search results to landing pages. The audience watched 9 speakers drive their search marketing race cars at speeds faster than fingers can type. Given the finger-breaking speeds, it was fortunate all SEO fans were well fueled - beginning with a healthy breakfast buffet, mid-morning energy bars, lunch (more all-you-can-eat) and a scrumptious mid-afternoon pit stop with fresh cookies and treats. After everyone was fed each time, it was off to the races. Todd Freisen was in the sports booth service as emcee, host of ceremonies, referee, judge and time keeper. The event was like a well-oiled machine. Maybe that's why they call Todd, "Oilman." When I said "yes" to attending the Mozinar on a Press Pass, I didn't realize I was going to be covering a sporting event. GoodNewsCowboy asked me how I was going to recap and condense this "wild ride." I realized there was a lot of horsepower on-stage and that we were at the SEOmoz Training Raceway. Mozinar fans experienced exhilaration and gleaned insights as we watched performance race car drivers present their seminar presentations. The following race highlights are condensed from 32 pages of notes. I strongly suggest you buy the Pro Seminar DVD when it's produced so you can see under the hood for yourself. From Clicks to Conversions with Local, Social, Analytics and SEO in Between 1st up: Rand Fishkin had pole position and drove a car with a most unusual name, "It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad SERP." The results we are seeing in blended search results are even more unusual, starting with changes of the past 2 weeks. For those who attend SEO races regularly and are watching Google, this may be old news. For others, brace yourself. A branded search can have more than 2 results. Rand explained: You have to be seen as a brand. You have to have lots of links pointing to those pages with the brand name. You need to have a high volume set of people searching for those terms, so off-site advertising and media buys can influence the SERPs. Changes to Image SEO was next, and guess what? Google has a new image search interface. Image results don’t always match image SERP's order, i.e. images for the artist "manet." Understand, and be prepared. You will not always get the same position in the blended results, leading to frustration. Image SEO value is reduced by the new overlay. The image below results from clicking on one of the images for the artist "manet" and clicking on an image Tip: Write some JavaScript that breaks the overlay to avoid having the image overlay. Not only does it produce the longest, ugliest URL, but "it’s just an invite to right click and steal this image." Rand covered 10 Tips for Image Rankings. (Since we are in race synopsis mode, we'll speed through this.) One quick takeaway was the minimum image size: Image Pixel Size - If you go smaller than 400x300 pixels your chances to show in image search are dramatically decreased. So you don't have to remember any formulas, basic on-page SEO factors for image SEO include page title and surrounding text. Video SERPs It’s or easier to get into video SERPs than to get into the regular SERPS. There is lower competition than ordinary results (most of the time), so take the opportunity. Follow this inclusion process to enter your video race for top ranking: Step #1: Embed Video Content on Your Pages Step #2: Create Thumbnail Images for Videos Step #3: Build a Video XML Sitemap & Submit Step #4: PROFIT $$$ See Google Webmaster Tools for Video to learn more. Rand's foot stayed pedal-to-the-metal as he showed how to produce Rich Snippets in the SERPs. Why is this important? This is where you get most of your clicks. His closing remarks were retweeted with fervor: "If you can stay on top of this, you will have a big win. It demands full-time SEO." 2nd up: David Mihm was full-speed as he raced through "Ranking in Competitive Local Results." He explained: Straight from Google’s mouth: Local intent is 20% of total search volume (April 2010) And who would imagine that local results could equal 100% of page 1? Try a search for "dentist chicago." (If it's not 100%, it's close.) Google organic results are not, however, the dominate factor for local search. Neither are results from Yahoo! or Bing. Local search is now: Craigslist Twitter FaceBook Citysearch Google Products Mobile devices Garmin GPS Wikipedia Virtual Augmented Reality Understand that local requires a different mindset from traditional SEO, because the ecosystems vary: Traditional SEO is about optimizing websites. Local SEO is about optimizing locations. Takeaway: "It is essential to have a holistic local search marketing strategy." "Even if all your boss cares about is that friggin' 7-pack!" Resources to claim your listings: Google Places Bing Local Listing Center Yahoo! Local Business Center "The Big Three" major data providers: infoUSA Localeze Acxiom Citations - David recommended a new citation finder tool by Darren Shaw & Garrett French: Whitespark.ca Citation Finder Find local SEO resources on GetListed.org. 3rd up to race: Dan Zarrella racing in the "Science of Twitter" car. Dan warned us he talked fast. Pro Seminar attendees listened attentively, but given the subject was Twitter ... many tweeted insights into how one can get clicks and retweets.   Dan's takeaways were in 140. Below are my fave top three: Takeaway: Don’t talk about  yourself so much. Paraphrased: If you want more followers, stop talking about yourself! Takeaway: Try to stay positive. If you want to get bummed out, people can go on the News. Even if talking about the oil spill, stay hopeful. Takeaway: If you want people to click your links, Tweet slower. Don't "go Oprah" on your Twitter account, moderate. Improve your "retweetability" factor by including a combination of the following Top 20 Most Retweetable Words: Timing for retweets: Links posted on the weekend and at the end of the week have a higher click through rate. Tip:  Want to see how well a bit.ly link is doing, CTR? Put a bit.ly link in the browser. Type a plus sign after it; Hit enter to see how many times it’s been clicked through. Retweeting is an elegant viral mechanism. Alright ... one more Twitter insight before we close ... He had noted that women follow a lot more people and tend to tweet more. They are more social. (We already knew women talk and socialize more, but now Dan's numbers confirm it.) Dan covered a lot of geeky ground focused on the science and study of social media, use of FourSquare and more.. I have 5+ pages of notes from Dan's presentation alone. But I'm concerned this blog post will get too long to be readable. Check out Dan's set of social media tools. 4th up and last race of the morning was the "Presentation Off" between Will Critchlow and Rand Fishkin. I'll expand on that race in a follow-up post. Do you want to guess who won this year? Will went into the race with a 2-year winning streak. Do you like this post? Yes No

Mobile SERPS & Usability Posted: 30 Aug 2010 04:35 PM PDT Posted by Suzzicks So here is the deal: Traditional websites frequently rank in mobile search results – especially if you are searching from a SmartPhone. What you may not realize is that the converse is also true – mobile pages can rank well in traditional search. This is quite an interesting phenomenon, and something that we need to address strategically. All One Index Soon? Why does this happen? Well, Google has said that they really don’t want to index two versions of the web – one mobile and one traditional. Even though they do have different mobile-specific bots, they want those their bots all to feed into one index. Hmmmm….Is it just an interesting coincidence that they just launched the multi-format site mapping in Google, where you can combine all the different types of sitemaps that we previously had to submit separately? Possibly. At least it that could indicate a shift away from multiple indexes. Did anyone notice that this shift happened pretty soon after Caffeine, as did the re-launch of Google Images, and some significant changes in Google Places? Hmmmm…..It seems that Google might be moving away from having multiple indexes that must be queried for different types of content - like mobile, local, images, news, etc. to a 'one index' solution that has different types of ‘indexing attributes’ instead. That would actually do lots of things that Caffeine has done, like speed up searches (only need to query one index), and allow them to algorithmically prioritize things by freshness more effectively…. Different Indexes for Smart Phones and Feature Phones But I have gone astray – We were talking about 'mobile'. We can’t know for sure if there are different mobile indexes. There definitely was a separate mobile index in the beginning of Google's ‘mobile’ search– you could always tell because the results were SO bad! Even in the past two years, I have seen mobile search results that were way off base – For example, the top result for a search on ‘subway sandwiches’ was a Gawker article for a long time; then Subway.com, and then m.subway.com. I just checked, and they have somewhat sorted that one out on smart phone searches, but it you still get weird results for feature phone search (shown below)! About 18 months ago Google changed the location of their mobile engine from m.Google.com to Google.com/m, and it did seem that the ‘/m’ feature phone search results were a bit better than they had been, but who knows! As I have mentioned, there are different mobile search engine crawlers that are evaluating your website as if it was being rendered on a mobile phone. These mobile bots actually have both generic and specific user agent strings that will spoof actual phone handset models in order to understand how the website would render and function on the different phones. While they don’t do a great job, Google actually does try to only provide you with mobile search results that will actually work well on your particular handset – What that means is that there are slight variations on search results from phone to phone. There are some simple ways to check what I am now describing as ‘mobile indexing attributes.’ I always start mobile rankings research by doing a normal search from my traditional computer. We know more about the traditional algorithm, so that sets my baseline for comparison. From there, I will do the same search from Google.com/m to see the differences. In most cases, the websites that are included in the traditional search results will be included in the SmartPhone search results – but sometimes in a slightly different order. You don’t have to have tons of different phones to get a sense for what is going on in mobile search. There are a couple quick tips and tricks to help you do this all from the web. The first thing to know, is that you can do searches from your computer directly from Google.com/m. The results you get will be generic ‘SmartPhone’ search results. From that page, you can move on to see the results for the same query on feature phones by simply scrolling to the bottom of the page and changing the drop-down that says ‘web’ to say ‘mobile,’ and hit ‘search.’ The next set of results will be the generic FeaturePhone results. Search operators like 'site:' and 'link:' work in these versions of Google, and will return different results than they would in traditional search - a good indication to me that they are still using separate indexes. Mobile-Friendly Signals for the Search Engines The best way to indicate to the search engines that your page is mobile-ready, (beyond including the ‘no-transform’ tag, which will be discussed more in another post called What is Mobile Search Engine Transcoding? which should be live next week), is to provide the search engines pages that will work well on mobile phones. Handheld stylesheets can be included on any page on your site. If you don’t have mobile-specific pages, you can use these stylesheets to tell mobile browsers how you would like your existing pages to look when they are displayed on a mobile phone. These are especially good if you would like to change the order that your content appear in when it is displayed on a mobile phone. They should also be used to prevent the need for left-to right scrolling when your site is displayed on a mobile phone. If you have mobile specific pages, you should set up user-agent detection on your site to ensure that, regardless of which pages rank (mobile or traditional) that users are presented with the appropriate version of the page, based on the device that they are using to access the page. If they are on a mobile phone, they should automatically be sent to the mobile version of a page – even if it is the traditional page that actually ranked in search engines. Conversely, if they are on a traditional computer,  and happen to click on a mobile version of a page, they should be automatically be sent to the version of the page that is meant for traditional-computer viewing. Last, include a page-to-page link in the upper left hand corner of each page that allows people to move between the mobile and traditional versions of the pages, if they can’t find what they are looking for, or need to over-ride the user-agent detection and redirection. The upper left-hand corner is the ideal location for this link, because it is always the first thing that people will be able to see, even if there is a mobile rendering problem with the site. If something is wrong with the way the page looks on someone’s phone, you don’t want to make them search all over for the button to fix it! You should still crate the handheld stylesheet for your mobile-specific pages and traditional pages as well, just in case something goes wrong. They are a good signal to the search engines that the pages should be ranked in mobile search results. Mobile Usability Options: Mobile/Traditional Hybrid Pages Only: One set of pages that has two or more style sheets – One for traditional web rendering, usually called ‘screen,’ and one (or more) for mobile web rendering, usually called ‘handheld.’ An important note is that the iPhone will automatically pull the ‘screen’ stylesheet, unless you give other instructions. Since looking at a traditional website on an iPhone is really not a great user experience, I recommend creating a specific stylesheet that can be pulled by the iPhone. You can get very granular with this, and create separate style sheets for all different kinds of phones. You would then simply have them called in based on the screen size of the device that they target. _ Traditional Pages for Computer and Mobile Pages for all Phones: Two sets of pages – one to be shown on traditional computers and one to be shown on mobile phones. The file structure of the mobile pages should be an exact replica of the traditional pages, with the addition of the ‘.m' or '/m'. User-agent detection and redirection should deliver feature phone users and smart phone users to the mobile pages automatically if they click on a link to a traditional page. Always include links between the mobile site and the traditional site in the upper left hand corner of the page. Both sets of pages should have a handheld stylesheet to control mobile rendering - This is in case the user-agent detection and redirection fails, or if the user clicks the link to see the traditional site from their mobile phone. _ Mobile/Traditional Hybrid Pages for Traditional and SmartPhone, Mobile Specific Pages for Feature Phones: Two sets of pages; one set of pages that are the mobile/traditional hybrid pages that use separate external stylesheets to be rendered on traditional computer screens and smart phones. The second set of pages are mobile specific pages, hosted on an ‘m.’ or a ‘/m’. The file structure should be an exact replica of the traditional file structure, with the addition of the ‘m’ or ‘/m’. User-agent detection and redirection delivers feature phone users here automatically if they click on a link to a traditional page while they are on a feature phone. Always include links between the mobile site and the traditional site in the upper left hand corner of the page. Both sets of pages should have a handheld stylesheet to control mobile rendering - This is in case the user-agent detection and redirection fails, or if the user clicks the link to see the traditional site from their mobile phone. _ Traditional Pages for Computers, Graphical Mobile Pages for Smart Phones, Text Mobile Pages for Feature Phones: Three sets of pages. Traditional pages for traditional computers, touch-optimized pages for smart phones with touch screens, and mobile-optimized pages for feature phones and smart phones without touch screens. User-agent detection and redirection delivers users with touch screens to the touch-screen pages if they click on a link while they are on a touch-screen phone. User-agent detection and redirection delivers users on feature phones and smart phones that don’t have a touch-screen to the mobile-optimized pages if they click on a link while they are on one of those types of phones. In this scenario, you will need two mobile-specific subdomains or subdirectories. I recommend using ‘touch.’ or /’touch’ for the touch-screen pages, and ‘m.’ or /m’ for the mobile-optimized pages. Always include links between the mobile site and the traditional site in the upper left hand corner of the page. All sets of pages should have a handheld stylesheet to control mobile rendering - This is in case the user-agent detection and redirection fails, or if the user clicks the link to see the traditional site from their mobile phone. User-agent detection and redirection should also be in-place to automatically deliver people on traditional computers who click on either version of the mobile pages to the traditional version of the page instead. It can also be used to send FeaturePhone or SmartPhone users to the version of the site that is best suited for their phone.   Do you like this post? Yes No

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Making 200,000 Homes More Energy Efficient

Energy and Climate Agenda Tuesday, August 31, 2010   The Week in Energy and Climate Last week, Vice President Biden travelled to Manchester, New Hampshire to mark the weatherization of 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act.  Across the country, thousands of construction workers are on the job making homes more energy efficient by adding insulation, replacing windows and doors, and sealing up cracks where air can leak out. This program reduces energy consumption, saves homeowners money, and creates jobs. Highlights On the Road to Recovery – Manchester, New Hampshire August 27, 2010 Vice President Biden travels to Manchester, New Hampshire to mark the weatherization of 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act. Setting the Record Straight on Weatherization August 27, 2010 A close look from the Energy Department on the progress of the Administration's efforts to weatherize homes, a key part of the emerging clean energy economy. 200,000 Homes Weatherized Under the Recovery Act August 26, 2010 Vice President Biden announces that 200,000 homes have been weatherized thanks to the Recovery Act. Cathy Zoi, Assistant Secretary of Energy for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, shares her thoughts. 31,000 Homes Weatherized in June August 23, 2010 In June, more than 31,000 low-income homes nationwide underwent retrofits to use less energy representing the largest number of homes ever upgraded – or “weatherized” – in a single month. Reducing Energy Costs while Creating Green Jobs for Americans August 20, 2010 Through the Green Retrofit Program for Multifamily Housing, the Department of Housing and Urban Development has awarded more than $100 million to 100 affordable housing developments around the country to complete energy efficient renovations. Get Updates Sign up for the weekly White House Energy and Climate Agenda. Stay Connected     Facebook Twitter YouTube Flickr iTunes     This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com. Unsubscribe from the Energy and Climate Agenda e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Unsubscribe from all White House Emails e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Seth's Blog : Just launched: Linchpin on the Vook on the iPad

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Just launched: Linchpin on the Vook on the iPad

The details are right here. Created by Vook, based on the hardcover.

Includes new video and interviews with some interesting folks...

The long tail challenge of the iPad store is getting more and more obvious to people. The ratio of "shelf space" to inventory is about the worst of any retail experience in the world. There are more than 24,000 apps listed in the iPad store, and yet the front window (equivalent to the window of a bookstore) shows the user six choices. The spotlight coverflow up top shows another sixteen, fairly randomly. Meaning there's a little worse than a one in a thousand chance that your app will appear in front of someone interacting with the store at the first level.

I have no doubt that as Apple sees revenue increase from this source, they'll do a much better job of crosslinks and browsing. But, once again, the lesson of the long tail is this: you can't count on the gatekeeper to do your promotion for you. Getting picked feels like a needle in a haystack, and the value of permission, of connecting directly to people who care instead of ceding control to a middle man, is at the heart of building an asset. Someone is going to be the gatekeeper, and it should be you.

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Answering Your Questions About Iraq

Good afternoon,   Tonight President Obama will address the nation from the Oval Office at 8 p.m. EDT regarding the end of the war in Iraq.  I know many Americans have questions about our change in mission in Iraq, so immediately following the President's address, I will be hosting a live chat to answer your questions.   You can submit your questions and vote for your favorites now, and be sure to tune to WhiteHouse.gov/live at 8 p.m. EDT to watch the President's address. I'm looking forward to answering your questions later this evening.   Sincerely,   Ben Rhodes Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications     This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com. Unsubscribe e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com | Privacy Policy Sign-Up For Updates from the White House Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111