Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• $30 Billion Offer No One Wants - Small Businesses Hit by Deflation
• Privileged Public Union Liars Show Up Begging for Tax Hikes and Handouts
• Question of the Day: How Many People Have Exhausted All Their Unemployment Benefits?
• Rare Earth Diplomacy: Japan Holds Chinese Boat Captain;China Blocks Rare Earth Exports to Japan;China Holds 4 Japanese on Spy Charges;Captain Set Free

$30 Billion Offer No One Wants - Small Businesses Hit by Deflation Posted: 24 Sep 2010 08:05 PM PDT When government passes out the money normally people are lined up, in advance, with both hands out. When that does not happen, it's because the offer smells like a rotten fish. Please check out Obama's latest rotten fish offering as described in Small businesses, community bankers may snub Obama's $30 billion loan program President Barack Obama's $30 billion small community business lending program faces one big challenge: many of the community banks and businesses it's supposed to help don't want it. The lending program is part of a bill that passed the House of Representatives on Thursday and now awaits the president's signature. The legislation contains a mix of tax cuts and credits aimed at helping small businesses. The centerpiece of the bill is an effort to make billions of dollars available to community banks for loans to small businesses. Bank executives say their customers don't want loans, even at low interest rates, because the sluggish economy has chilled expansion plans. Some say the federal money isn't worth it because they fear it will come with too much regulatory oversight. "We have taken a strategic decision not to have our primary regulator, the government, also be a partner in our bank," said William Chase Jr., CEO of Triumph Bank in Memphis. Chase said the bank already has enough capital to meet the paltry demand for loans. "Our business customers are mired in uncertainty and are reluctant to invest in their businesses," Chase said. The $30 billion fund will be run by the Treasury Department, and money will be awarded to banks deemed strong by regulators. Banks that have less than $10 billion in assets are eligible. "It will provide incentives to invest and create jobs for 4 million small businesses," Obama said at a news conference Sept. 10. "It will more than double the amount some small business owners can borrow to grow their companies." Obama has to bridge the gulf between money that's available and the needs of businesses. The NFIB survey found businesses don't intend to borrow until they have more customers. Community banks will have to pay an annual dividend of 5 percent to the U.S. Treasury. However, when banks increase their lending to small businesses, their dividend rate declines on a sliding scale. So, if a bank increases its small-business lending portfolio by 2.5 percent, the dividend payment goes down to 4 percent and so on, said Paul Merski, chief economist at the Independent Community Bankers of America, the lobbying group for small banks. The dividend payment increases to 7 percent if banks don't lend to small businesses. Noah Wilcox, CEO of Grand Rapids State Bank, with two branches in Minnesota, said he already has more capital at his $250 million bank than he can lend out. "Many of our clients, business owners, put their projects on ice in 2008 because their job number one is to see their company through to the other side of this economic crisis," said Wilcox. Somehow Obama takes credit for creating 4 million jobs from $30 billion that will never be spent because the terms for banks are preposterous and small businesses do not want the money anyway. This is just what I predicted yesterday in Ass Backwards: Senate to Shelve Bush Tax Cuts for Individuals; House to Pass Small Business Tax Cuts Buying Preferred Shares Amazing Convoluted Buying preferred shares of banks to get them to lend is amazingly convoluted. Banks need to decide business risks of lending and make those decision on risk, not on government prodding. The only possible saving grace for such monstrous stupidity is that Zandi is likely correct when he says banks may not take the offer in memory of TARP. Nonetheless, this is yet another step down the path of more seriously misguided government intervention. Republicans were correct to object to this foolishness. Tax Credits for Capital Spending Make Little Sense Given the #1 problem facing small corporation is lack of customers, it makes little sense to entice businesses to increase capacity. Payroll tax credits suffer the same flaw. Please see my response to both those ideas in Response to Nouriel Roubini on "America Needs a Payroll Tax Cut" NFIB Small Business Trends Inquiring minds are taking a look at NFIB Small Business Trends for September. LABOR MARKETS There is no life in the jobs market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 67,000 new private sector jobs in August, but 45,000 were from education and health care which are heavily dependent on government spending, not exactly "Main Street"companies. Eleven (11) percent (seasonally adjusted) reported unfilled job openings, up one point from July but historically very weak. Over the next three months, eight percent plan to increase employment (down one point), and 13 percent plan to reduce their workforce (up three points), yielding a seasonally adjusted net one percent of owners planning to create new jobs, down one point from July but positive for the fourth time in the last 22 months. CAPITAL SPENDING The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months fell one point to 44 percent of all firms, again hitting the 35 year record low. The environment for capital spending is not good. Interest rates are low but the record long recession has eroded financial strength. More importantly, the prospects that investment spending and/or hiring will somehow increase profits are low. Four percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities, down one point. A net negative eight percent expect business conditions to improve over the next six months, seven points better than July but still more owners expect the economy to weaken than strengthen. Owners do not trust the economic policies in place or proposed, fear the economic implications of massive deficits and are distressed by global and national developments that make the future more uncertain. INFLATION The weak economy continued to put downward pressure on prices. Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners raising prices was a negative eight percent, a four point increase from July. August is the 21st consecutive month in which more owners reported cutting average selling prices that raising them. COMMENTARY The Index has been below 93 every month since January 2008 (32 months), and below 90 for 25 of those months, all readings typical of a weak or recession-mired economy. Inflation? Not a threat. Far more owners have cut prices than raised them for 21 months in a row. Deflation? It certainly feels that way to a quarter of the owners reporting price declines for the goods and services they produce and sell. Here are a few charts from the article. Prices Received Actual Price Changes Single Most Important Problem The single most important problem is lack of customers. Access to credit is not even on the list. Small businesses don't want loans because they don't have any customers and prices they receive are falling like a rock. This is deflation in action, and it is crucifying small businesses. So what does Congress do? Why it sets up a convoluted $30 billion program, onerous on small banks, so those small banks (who don't want the money) can offer loans to small businesses that do not want the money either! But hey, it creates another 4 million jobs according to president Obama. Why he must have saved or created 20 million jobs this year alone. One just might not know it judging from Question of the Day: How Many People Have Exhausted All Their Unemployment Benefits? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Privileged Public Union Liars Show Up Begging for Tax Hikes and Handouts Posted: 24 Sep 2010 11:33 AM PDT You can always count on the police (count on them to pick your pocket and say they are doing it for you). The Miami Herald explains the sorry state of affairs in Commission starts budget debate. In January, Miami-Dade County Manager George Burgess wrote commissioners that he expected property values to plummet 12 percent, a record drop that would significantly reduce government revenues. Yet, Burgess -- along with the county mayor and commissioners -- subsequently agreed to give county employees salary and benefit increases totaling $132 million. Now, to help pay for it, Burgess is asking commissioners to support a tax rate increase on homeowners across Greater Miami that will bring in an additional $178 million in revenue. As the final budget hearing got under way at 5:14 p.m. [September 23, 2010], county commissioners were staring at what many expected to be a long and contentious night to finalize a new budget and property tax rate. At the outset, 179 people had signed up to speak at the public hearing and a long line of others waited to sign up in the lobby of County Hall. A grassroots group of property owners gathered in the ground floor of County Hall shouting ``No more taxes'' and waving signs opposing the proposed tax rate hike. ``We Pay Taxes For Services. Not For Bureaucracy,'' read another sign. A few feet away, police officers gathered in force to support the proposed budget. ``We've got our contract already. This is not about us.... This is about the residents of the community. We want them to be safe,'' said John Rivera, president of the Dade County Police Benevolent Association. One police officer estimated about 300 police officers and 200 corrections officer had turned out for the session. Across the hall was an equally strong turnout of county fire-rescue workers in pink T-shirts. The political stakes spiraled higher Wednesday, when Miami businessman Norman Braman -- who has a history of bankrolling fights against county government -- declared his intention to support and finance a recall campaign against the mayor and any commissioners who support a tax rate increase. Turnout of Taxpayers, Turnout of Liars Not Surprising We should not be surprised by the taxpayer turnout. Nor should we be surprised that the turnout of liars was even bigger. Those who stand to benefit at the expense of others are always the first to have their hands out. "We've got our contract already. This is not about us." If ever there was a blatant lie, the statement "This is not about us" ranks right at the top of the list. The police could easily take a pay cut or a benefit cut. Instead they want to suck the taxpayers dry. Correct Solution is Bankruptcy On August 30, I stated Miami is bankrupt. I also encouraged residents to show up at the meetings. Please see Bankrupt Miami in Fiscal Emergency, Breaks Employee Contracts, Hikes Property Taxes; What You Can Do for details. The only way the citizens of Miami can hope to escape the tyranny of the police, other public unions, and government employees in general is for the city to declare bankruptcy. The unions and other public employees can then see what their pensions are worth in bankruptcy court. Judging from their enormously greedy actions, they deserve nothing. Support the Recall Campaign If you live in Miami, please support businessman Norman Braman and his effort to start a recall campaign against the mayor and any commissioners who support any tax rate increase. Once a recall is out of the way, voters need to elect someone willing to tell the police and fire unions to go to hell. The best way to do that, perhaps the only way to do that is for the city to declare bankruptcy. Investigate County Manager George Burgess Finally, I believe it would be appropriate for the district attorney to investigate Miami-Dade County Manager George Burgess for misappropriation of public funds and conflicts of interest. While not on the same scale as what happened in Bell, California (See "Corruption on Steroids" Bell Officials Arrested, Criminal Charges Filed), no one in their right mind could have agreed to give county employees salary and benefit increases totaling $132 million knowing what Burgess did about Miami's dire fiscal situation. Of course, it is always possible George Burgess is merely insane instead of criminally insane or on the take. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Question of the Day: How Many People Have Exhausted All Their Unemployment Benefits? Posted: 24 Sep 2010 07:25 AM PDT Inquiring minds are asking "How many people have exhausted all of their unemployment and extended unemployment benefits?" For starters, to exhaust benefits, one first must have had them. That excludes those who are self-employed. It also excludes those fresh out of high school or college, and looking for a job for their first time. I have a series of charts from reader Tim Wallace that will help explore the issues. The charts are based on weekly unemployment claims data put out by the states. Click on any chart to see a sharper image. Continuing State and Extended Federal Unemployment Benefits Note that in spite of the recovery, we still have not made a dent in the number of people collecting benefits. Percentage of Eligible Now Collecting Benefits The above chart shows the number of people collecting unemployment benefits or extended unemployment benefits, divided by the number of eligible participants. The current data point consists of 3,891,808 continuing claims + 5,253,587 extended and EUC claims (a total of 9,145,395) divided by the eligible benefits pool of 126,763,245. The result is an unprecedented 7.2% of those eligible, now collect unemployment benefits. Eligible Unemployment Insurance Pool The above charts all courtesy of Tim Wallace. For more charts from Tim Wallace please see What does Petroleum Distillates usage say about the Recovery? Thanks Tim! The last chart helps address the opening question. Note that the eligibility pool is nearly back to 2004 levels! In 2008 there were 133,690,617 covered participants. Now there are 126,763,245 covered participants. The drop from the peak is 6,927,372. Implications and Analysis The implication is at least 6,927,372 have exhausted all of their unemployment benefits. Indeed, the number may be considerably higher because every first-time job seeker who found a covered job since the pool peak in 2008, displaced someone in the eligibility pool who exhausted all benefits. All things considered, at least 7 million people exhausted all unemployment benefits with some unknown portion of them coping via an option to start collecting social security. Moreover, those prematurely opting for social security, did so with reduced benefits. People are Broke, Congress Responds With the exception of those opting for social security, some 7 million people who want jobs and once collected unemployment benefits, now have no job-related income. Think those 7 million people are about to go on a spending spree? Think those forced into social security are about to go on a spending spree? Think the self-employed with no income are about to go on a spending spree? Think the 26 million unemployed or under-employed are about to go on a spending spree? Think the countless millions of working Americans barely scraping by are about to go on a spending spree? Well, I don't either. Yet, look at the response from Congress - Ass Backwards: Senate to Shelve Bush Tax Cuts for Individuals; House to Pass Small Business Tax Cuts. Senate Democrats Ready To Shelve Tax Cut Vote TPM reports Senate Dems Ready To Shelve Tax Cut Vote A senior Senate Democratic aide told TPM today there won't be a vote on extending the Bush tax cuts in the upper chamber before the November election, a blow to party leaders and President Obama who believed this would have been a winning issue. "Absent a stunning turn of events, we're not going to do tax cuts before the election," the aide told TPM. "We have a winning message now, why muddy it up with a failed vote, because, of course, Republicans are going to block everything," the aide said. Tax Credits for Capital Spending Not The Right Approach Given the #1 problem facing small corporation is lack of customers, it makes little sense to entice businesses to increase capacity. Payroll tax credits suffer the same flaw. Please see my response to both those ideas in Response to Nouriel Roubini on "America Needs a Payroll Tax Cut" Indeed, I received this email from the president of a small corporation just yesterday. Dear Mish: I agree with your analysis of the statements by Roubini re: payroll taxes. As a business owner with four employees, I'd welcome them; however, such breaks would not entice me to hire another employee. Have a good day. I am quite certain that sentiment represents the vast majority of small business owners. The one thing small business owners need is customers. It's hard to get more customers when government is going to start taking a bigger bite out of everyone's pay check. But hey, who cares if the economy goes to hell. After all, scoring political points is far more important! People are broke, yet Congress opts to punish those still working by letting tax cuts expire. Is this amazing or simply par for the course? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Rare Earth Diplomacy: Japan Holds Chinese Boat Captain;China Blocks Rare Earth Exports to Japan;China Holds 4 Japanese on Spy Charges;Captain Set Free Posted: 23 Sep 2010 11:57 PM PDT Tensions between China and Japan reached new heights in an escalating war of nerves between Japan and China. Here is the approximate sequence of events. Japan kicked things off on September 7, with the arrest of a Chinese boat captain in disputed waters. In an escalating dispute, China blocked exports of rare earth metals to Japan on September 22. Rare earth minerals are used in manufacturing and weapons production. The US gets most of its rare earth elements from China. Tensions increased on September 23 when China arrested four Japanese employees of Fujita Corp on suspicion of violating Chinese law regarding the protection of military facilities. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton entered the fray "urging dialogue". The House Armed Services Committee scheduled a hearing on Oct. 5 to review the American military dependence on Chinese rare earth elements. Japan releases captain. September 10, 2010: China demands Japan release detained boat captain China's foreign minister demanded that Tokyo immediately release the captain of a Chinese fishing boat that collided with two Japanese patrol vessels near disputed islands. But a Japanese court ruled he can be held 10 more days, deepening the diplomatic spat. The collisions occurred Tuesday after the Chinese fishing boat ignored warnings from the patrol vessels to leave the area and then refused to stop for an inspection, Japan's coast guard said. The incident happened off Japan's Kuba island, just north of disputed islands known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese. The islands, about 120 miles (190 kilometers) east of Taiwan, are controlled by Japan but are also claimed by China and Taiwan. September 14, 2010: Japan frees 14 crew, holds Chinese ship's captain Japan freed 14 crew members of a Chinese fishing ship nearly a week after their vessel and two Japanese patrol boats collided near disputed southern islets. But China lashed out at Tokyo's decision to keep the captain in custody. But Japan continues to detain the captain of the Chinese trawler, Zhan Qixiong. A Japanese court has granted prosecutors permission to keep the captain in custody until September 19 to decide whether to formally indict him. The dispute has sparked anti-Japanese activists in China and Taiwan, which also claims the islands in question, to sail to the area on their own protest missions - although both governments have sought to rein them in so as not to inflame tensions further. September 19, 2010: China halts ministerial-level contacts with Japan China on Sunday broke off high-level government contacts with Japan over the extended detention of a fishing boat captain arrested near disputed islands. It came a day after anti-Japanese protests broke out across China on the anniversary of the start of a brutal Japanese invasion of China in 1931 that has historically cast a shadow over ties between what are now the world's second and third-largest economies. This is the lowest bilateral relations have fallen to since they were strained under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, whose repeated visits to a war shrine in Japan during his 2001-2006 term angered China. The two countries halted ministerial-level defense talks for three years from 2003. But even in those tense times, Japan's foreign minister visited China in 2004 and met Wen. September 22, 2010: Amid Tension, China Blocks Vital Exports to Japan Sharply raising the stakes in a dispute over Japan's detention of a Chinese fishing trawler captain, the Chinese government has blocked exports to Japan of a crucial category of minerals used in products like hybrid cars, wind turbines and guided missiles. China mines 93 percent of the world's rare earth minerals, and more than 99 percent of the world's supply of some of the most prized rare earths, which sell for several hundred dollars a pound. Japan has been the main buyer of Chinese rare earths for many years, using them for a wide range of industrial purposes, like making glass for solar panels. They are also used in small steering control motors in conventional gasoline-powered cars as well as in motors that help propel hybrid cars like the Toyota Prius. American companies now rely mostly on Japan for magnets and other components using rare earth elements, as the United States' manufacturing capacity in the industry became uncompetitive and mostly closed over the last two decades. The Chinese halt to exports is likely to have immediate repercussions in Washington. The House Committee on Science and Technology is scheduled on Thursday morning to review a detailed bill to subsidize the revival of the American rare earths industry. The main American rare earths mine, in Mountain Pass, Calif., closed in 2002, but efforts are under way to reopen it. The House Armed Services Committee has scheduled a hearing on Oct. 5 to review the American military dependence on Chinese rare earth elements. The Defense Department has a separate review under way on whether the United States should develop its own sources of supply for rare earths, which are also used in equipment including rangefinders on the Army's tanks, sonar systems aboard Navy vessels and the control vanes on the Air Force's smart bombs. September 23, 2010: Japan confirms 4 nationals detained in China A Japanese foreign ministry spokesman confirmed Friday that four Japanese nationals had been detained in China on suspicion of violating Chinese law regarding the protection of military facilities, as tensions rise between Asia's two biggest economies. "We were told the reason for the detention of the four Japanese people is violation of Chinese law relating to protection of military facilities," said Hidenobu Sobashima, deputy foreign ministry spokesman. September 24, 2010: Clinton Urges China-Japan 'Dialogue,' Stays Neutral in Dispute Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged Japan to resolve issues with China over a detained Chinese fishing captain through dialogue, as U.S. officials declined to step into a broader territorial dispute. The U.S. encourages "both sides to work aggressively to resolve" their differences "as quickly as possible," State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley told reporters in New York yesterday, where Clinton met with Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly's annual meeting. The diplomatic dispute has caught the attention of the U.S. military, which relies on Japan to provide bases and other support for American forces. Japan is one of two security treaty allies for the U.S. in the region, along with South Korea. Watching Tension 'Carefully' "We're watching that tension very, very carefully," said Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and President Barack Obama's top military adviser. "Obviously we're very, very strongly in support of our ally in that region, Japan," he told reporters at the Pentagon yesterday. September 24, 2010: Japan Releases Chinese Boat Captain Japanese prosecutors announced that they have decided to release a Chinese sea captain who has been in Japanese custody since a ship collision in the East China Sea, amid escalating tension between the two nations. "We decided it was inappropriate to continue the investigation while keeping the suspect in custody any further, considering the future of the Japan-China relationship," an official from the Osaka prosecutors' office said at a hastily called press conference Friday afternoon. I'm sure glad we once again have a stable source of rare earth elements, aren't you? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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