marți, 26 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Thanks to Fed, Bubble Builds in Junk Bonds; We Know How Bubbles End

Posted: 26 Oct 2010 12:34 PM PDT

The Fed's misguided policies have not done a thing for small businesses, the unemployment rate, or the real economy in general but they have induced a mad dash for yield in junk bonds, easily in a bubble state right now.

Byran Keogh writing for Bloomberg says Fed-Induced Rally Makes Riskiest Debt Priciest
The lowest-rated junk bonds are the most expensive corporate debt following a Federal Reserve- induced rally in high-risk assets, adding to concern fixed- income securities are overvalued.

The extra yield investors demand to hold global bonds rated CCC or lower instead of government debt is about 10.1 percentage points, or 3.4 percentage points narrower than the average over the past 12 years, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. Debt with B ratings is the only other part of the market trading tighter than its historical average.

The rally in the lowest-rated company bonds has sparked a surge in issuance. MGM Resorts International, the biggest casino operator on the Las Vegas Strip, Energy Future Holdings Corp. and other companies have sold $6.5 billion of bonds this month rated CCC+ or lower by Standard & Poor's or Caa1 or lower by Moody's Investors Service, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Goldman Sachs plans to sell $1.3 billion of 50-year debt at a 6.125 percent yield as soon as today, according to a person familiar with the transaction. The offering may include bonds with a face value of $25 that can't be called for five years, the person said.

The cost of protecting bonds from default in the U.S. held near the lowest level since May. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, increased 0.1 basis point to a mid-price of 93.5 basis points as of 12:21 p.m. in New York, according to index administrator Markit Group Ltd.

Goldman Sachs said bonds rated CCC+ and lower by S&P or Caa1 by Moody's were "expensive" given expectations for economic growth, and recommended clients buy higher-ranked company bonds instead. John Lipsky, the No. 2 official at the International Monetary Fund, said last month that global economic growth in the second half of the year will fall short of the fund's forecast of 3.75 percent on an annualized basis.

"You don't want to stand in the way of the search for yield," said Alberto Gallo, a global credit strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York. "But on the other hand it is a very volatile part of the market. And it can be particularly sensitive to a further slowdown in the economy."

Yields on U.S. investment-grade debt fell to a record low of 3.55 percent this month, the lowest borrowing cost on record in data going back to October 1986, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. For CCC bonds and lower, yields dropped to 11.63 percent yesterday, the lowest level since November 2007, the data show.
We Know How Bubbles End

As long as there is a strong bid for junk, the stock market is unlikely to crack hard. Yet, we know how bubbles end.

The Greenspan Fed ignored the dot-com bubble, even encouraged it because of misguided Y2K fears and belief in productivity miracles. When that bubble burst, the Fed promptly embarked on creating a second, far bigger bubble in housing and debt.

Now the Fed is actively promoting still more bubbles as a solution to god knows what, since the Fed's policies are not helping the real economy one iota.

In fact, the Fed's policies are helping neither the real nor unreal economies unless you consider creating another opportunity for Goldman Sachs and select hedge funds to short at the opportune time, appropriate "help".

Fed Uncertainty Principle in Action

Long-time readers will quickly spot the Fed's actions as Fed Uncertainty Principle Corollary Number Three

Don't expect the Fed to learn from past mistakes. Instead, expect the Fed to repeat them with bigger and bigger doses of exactly what created the initial problem.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Economic Stimulus on Whiteboard; Good News on the Political Front in WA6

Posted: 26 Oct 2010 11:14 AM PDT

This is a political post but a video clip from Dough Cloud also shows rather well how Congress works.



In addition to the above video, I have good news to report in the campaign front. Doug Cloud, a Ron Paul type candidate, has pulled into the lead in his race for his race in Washington District 6.

Doug writes ...
Dear Mish,

I have not updated you on our campaign for some time. We have some very good news! The most recent poll on my race for Congress in Washington's Sixth District shows me leading by 48% to 44%. This poll was completed on Thursday, Oct. 21. Our race is now very much in play.

The incumbent is ensnared in a variety of influence peddling and corruption scandals involving earmarks for political sponsors, friends and family.

There is no question in my mind that we will see a historical turning of the page this election, with dozens of incumbents being removed from office. My race is one where a long time incumbent who has done nothing but vote the big government party line for all of his 34 years in Congress is in serious trouble, precisely because of his votes in favor of TARP, the various bailouts, and his vote for Obamacare.

Please, alert your readers to our race and the real possibility that another long time incumbent will finally bite the dust of history.

Doug Cloud
Race Washington Overlooked

The National Review asks Could There Be One More Competitive House Race in Washington, Completely Overlooked?
Congressman Norm Dicks: 17-term incumbent Democrat in Washington. Chairman of the House Interior and Environment Appropriations Subcommittee. Represents a D+5 district that includes parts of Tacoma and Bremerton and Port Angeles. Obama carried 57 percent of the vote; Dicks usually wins with 60some percent of the vote and hit above 70 percent a few times.

Doug Cloud is deputy prosecutor of Kitsap County.

As of October 13, Dicks had more than $511,000 cash on hand.

Cloud has $2,909 cash on hand.

And yet, here is this poll, suggesting the race stands at Cloud 48 percent, Dicks 44 percent.

I don't think anyone has this district on their watch list…
They Do Now!

What To Do - How You Can Help

Just yesterday a reader with some money to contribute asked how to make the best use of it. My answer was to donate to campaigns now considered tossups. Since one poll is not necessarily accurate, certainly Doug Cloud's campaign is worthy as well.

Please see my endorsement Doug Cloud for Washington District 6 - Tacoma. The post contains information on how to volunteer time and money.

Battle for House and Senate

On a national level, Real Clear Politics shows an election map with all the tossup races in play in Battle for the House.

Here is a map depicting the Battle for the Senate

There are many candidates worthy of your support, and Doug Cloud is a standout.

It is not often one gets the chance to elect a Ron Paul type candidate against a corrupt long-term opponent on the take. Do not let these chances slip away.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

BofA, JPM get Texas Subpoenas; Class Action Suit Against BofA; "Pit Bull" vs. BofA in Mortgage BuyBack Battle

Posted: 26 Oct 2010 02:15 AM PDT

The mortgage mess gets more complicated every day. Here are a sampling of stories that shows how.

Bank of America, JPMorgan Get Texas Subpoenas on Foreclosures

Bloomberg reports Bank of America, JPMorgan Get Texas Subpoenas on Foreclosures
Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and seven other banks or loan servicers were subpoenaed by Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott for information about their foreclosure practices, a spokesman said.

"The state is subpoenaing information and documents," Jerry Strickland, the spokesman, said yesterday in an interview. He didn't elaborate. The state also subpoenaed Ally Financial Inc., CitiMortgage Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co

The Texas subpoenas followed letters sent by Abbott's office to 30 loan servicers on Oct. 4, asking them to halt foreclosures in the state pending a review of their practices.

Abbott asked banks then to identify employees who filed faulty affidavits or other documents in the state and identify foreclosures that used such documents. He also asked lenders and servicers to halt all sales of properties previously foreclosed upon and stop all evictions.

Twenty-six of those companies responded to the letters, according to a spreadsheet of answers sent yesterday by Strickland.
Class Action Filed Against Bank of America For Foreclosure Fraud

Law.Com reports Bank of America Sued in Class Action Over Flouting of Foreclosure Rules
Bank of America has been hit with a class action on behalf of homeowners seeking damages for alleged disregard of foreclosure process rules.

The suit, filed Wednesday in federal court in Newark, N.J., accuses Bank of America and two subsidiaries, LaSalle Bank and BAC Home Loans Servicing, of "an undisciplined rush to seize homes" through "pervasive and willful disregard of knowledge, facts and statutes."

Bank of America has filed foreclosure proceedings on many mortgages in New Jersey without holding the necessary rights as the mortgagee or assignee at the time of foreclosure, the suit says.

"Many thousands of foreclosures are plainly void under statute and settled New Jersey case law. Many borrowers never obtain statutorily required notices, and many foreclosure suits are filed entirely based in inaccurate recitations concerning ownership of the mortgage, the note, or the assignment," the suit says.

The suit was brought by Lawrence Friscia, head of a Newark firm that counsels distressed homeowners, and his associate, Jonathan Minkove, who say they've found that Bank of America regularly negotiates binding agreements to modify mortgage terms and then fails to honor the terms.
Fed's 'Pit Bull' Takes on Bank of America in BuyBack Battle

Bloomberg reports Fed's 'Pit Bull' Takes on Bank of America in BuyBack Battle

Kathy D. Patrick is a Houston lawyer who spends her Sundays teaching children about God. The rest of the week, according to one attorney who knows her, she can be "as frightening as a pit bull on steroids."

Her law firm, Gibbs & Bruns LLP, is a 30-lawyer outfit that says it specializes in "bet the company" litigation. This month, it reached a settlement with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of Montreal stemming from an alleged fraud at a Canadian gold company. Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS AG settled with the firm over the sale of $550 million in mortgage-backed securities. Patrick reached that settlement on behalf of her clients just two months after filing suit.

Patrick, 50, is "fearless and tenacious," said Dan Cogdell, a Houston criminal-defense lawyer who said she is capable of pit bull-like aggressiveness "if the need be." If she succeeds in getting Bank of America to settle, it may trigger more calls for buybacks in the $1.4 trillion market for so-called non-agency mortgage securities, which lack government backing.

Bank costs from repurchasing mortgages in such securities may total as much as $179.2 billion, including expenses related to suits against bond underwriters, Chris Gamaitoni, a Compass Point Research and Trading LLC analyst, estimated in August.
Bair Says Regulators Will Uncover More Flaws in Foreclosures

The understatement of the month award goes to Sheila Bair at the FDIC who says Regulators Will Uncover More Flaws in Foreclosures
Regulators are likely to discover more problems related to loan servicing by some of the biggest banks as they probe claims that documents were mishandled, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said.

"We are going to get into more and more problems with the issues that are surfacing now on servicing," Bair said today at a housing conference in Arlington, Virginia. Resulting litigation could "ultimately be very damaging to our housing markets if it ends up prolonging those foreclosures that are necessary and justified," she said. Bair didn't provide details on what other problems she thought might arise.

"Ultimately this problem will require some type of global solution," she said. "In developing that solution, I would suggest that all interested parties consider some type of triage on foreclosures" such as safe harbor relief for vacant properties or interest-rate reductions for borrowers.

Bair said she doesn't think congressional legislation will be needed to address the issue.
If you get the idea foreclosure fraud is going to trigger a tangled mess of lawsuits and countersuits, you have the right idea.

This can easily drag on for years unless (and perhaps even if) Congress gets involved.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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