Central Perk: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

sâmbătă, 13 noiembrie 2010

Posted: 13 Nov 2010 05:08 PM PST

The IMF is ready, willing, and able to "Help" Ireland according Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF Managing Director.

Please consider Strauss-Kahn Says IMF Can Help Ireland's 'Difficult' Situation

The International Monetary Fund stands ready to help Ireland if needed, its managing director said, as market concern about the country's debt crisis continues.

"Everybody knows that the situation with Ireland, it's a difficult situation," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told reporters today in Yokohama, Japan. "So far I haven't received any kind of request. I think they can manage well. If at one point in time, tomorrow, in two months or two years, the Irish want support from the IMF, we will be ready."

Bailing out Ireland's financial system could cost as much as 50 billion euros under a "stress case" scenario compiled by the Finance Ministry and central bank. The country's gross funding need for 2011 will be 23.5 billion euros, falling to 18.6 billion euros in 2014, the nation's debt agency said yesterday.

Can the IMF "Help" Anyone?

Inquiring minds are asking "Can the IMF Help Anyone?"

That's a good question. Mish readers may be shocked by my answer: "Yes It Can!"

The irony is no country in its right mind should ever accept "help" from the IMF.

This apparent paradox can be explained by the fact that "help" from the IMF is akin to tossing an anchor to a struggling swimmer.

Help does not go to the country accepting the offer of help. Rather "help" goes to the creditor nations who would otherwise bear the risk of a default by the debtors.

In this case, the IMF will not help Ireland. Instead, the IMF would screw the citizens of Ireland while bailing out the bondholders. Who are those bondholders?

The answer of course is banks in Britain, Germany, the United States and France.

Irish banks, bonds hit as EU eyes survival plan

Please consider Irish banks, bonds hit as EU eyes survival plan

Shares in Ireland's banks hit record lows and national borrowing costs reached new euro-era highs Monday as the government presented its latest plans for financial survival to the European Union's economic commissioner, who has the power to order changes.

The interest rates charged on the treasuries of Ireland, as well as fellow indebted euro-zone members Portugal and Spain, have been rising ever since German Chancellor Angela Merkel last month said she expected any future EU bailouts to come with new rules requiring bondholders to absorb some losses.

But Ireland is experiencing by far the greatest skepticism from would-be lenders, who look with horror at Ireland's projected deficit of 32 percent of GDP, a modern European record.

Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish have received billions in state aid to cover their dud loans to bankrupt construction tycoons, while Irish Life & Permanent has received no bailout help but is most exposed to Ireland's depressed market for residential property.

Traders said a widely read article in the Irish Times by University College Dublin economics Professor Morgan Kelly - known in Ireland as "Dr. Doom" because of his accurate forecasts of the death of the Celtic Tiger economy - added to the gloom.

Kelly forecast that state support for banks would cost taxpayers an extra euro30 billion beyond the euro45 billion to euro50 billion declared last month by Lenihan. He accused the government of maintaining "a dreary and mendacious charade" on the true scale of property-based losses in the pipeline.

Kelly called the current deficit-fighting push "an exercise in futility" and rated Ireland's financial fate alongside that of the Titanic. He said there was no point trying to cut billions from the budget "when the iceberg of bank losses is going to sink us anyway."

"We are no longer a sovereign nation in any meaningful sense of that term. From here on, for better or worse, we can only rely on the kindness of strangers," Kelly concluded.

As the traditional owners of Irish treasuries - chiefly banks in Britain, Germany, the United States and France - seek to dump them because of their falling value and increased perceived risk, new sellers can be attracted only by offering higher yields.

Traders say the main buyer of Irish bonds in recent weeks has been the European Central Bank.

Reject Phony Offer of Help

Irish voters, if they have a chance, should reject this phony offer of "help" from the IMF, the EU or whoever. Merkel has it ALMOST correct when she said "any future EU bailouts to come with new rules requiring bondholders to absorb some losses."

I say "almost" because the future is now. In addition, I say "almost" because "some of the losses" is inadequate. Bondholders should suffer losses down to the last penny. If they are wiped out, so be it.

The citizens of Ireland should not be responsible for those losses. In short, they should tell the IMF to "Go to Hell". The simple way to do that is default.

To get its economy functioning again, Ireland will still need austerity measures, public sector reforms, bank reforms and other initiatives, but it certainly does not need any anchors from the IMF. Ireland has enough problems already.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

International "Extend-and-Pretend" - Greece Needs IMF Extension

Posted: 13 Nov 2010 04:40 PM PST

The highly popular game of extend-and-pretend took another step forward in the international arena today as noted by Greek loan repayment extension on the table

Greece's prime minister said in an interview that the possibility of extending repayment of its EU/IMF loan was on the table, but an ECB policymaker said any talk of renegotiation could harm the country's credibility.

Greece has cut public wages and pensions and raised taxes to help plug its budget shortfall as part of a 110 billion euro EU/IMF bailout that saved it from bankruptcy in May.

But officials say it will miss this year's deficit target because of a revision of 2009 fiscal data and weak revenue growth, and the government has said it is ready to make extra spending cuts if necessary.

"The issue of extending the repayment of the support mechanism loan has already been put on the table," Prime Minister George Papandreou said in an interview to be published by the Greek newspaper Proto Thema on Sunday.

Analysts have said Greece is likely to need additional help eventually because of a jump in 2014/2015 gross borrowing needs when the 3-year bailout deal expires.

The International Monetary Fund has also said extending repayments is an option, but last month Germany strongly opposed it and the European Commission said no talks were taking place.

If 2014-2015 is not the target date, pray tell what is?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

QE Explained

Posted: 13 Nov 2010 09:19 AM PST

Here is an entertaining video that helps explain what Quantitative Easing is, and who in general benefits from it. I especially like the part about Bernanke being so dumb as to want to raise prices in a recession.