Central Perk: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

duminică, 14 noiembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Interactive Map of Global Debt
Portugal Foreign Affairs Minister Threatens "Euro Zone Exit"
Partied Out: A Recap of Australia's Now Imploding Housing Bubble; Property Bull Offers Jeremy Grantham $100m Housing bet, Party is Not Over
Sunday Funnies 2010-11-07 Agreement to Agree; Just Say Shazam!

Posted: 14 Nov 2010 04:06 PM PST

The Economist has an interesting Global Debt Clock that inquiring minds may be interested in.

From The Economist ...

The clock is ticking. Every second, it seems, someone in the world takes on more debt. The idea of a debt clock for an individual nation is familiar to anyone who has been to Times Square in New York, where the American public shortfall is revealed. Our clock shows the global figure for all (or almost all) government debts in dollar terms.

Does it matter? After all, world governments owe the money to their own citizens, not to the Martians. But the rising total is important for two reasons. First, when debt rises faster than economic output (as it has been doing in recent years), higher government debt implies more state interference in the economy and higher taxes in the future. Second, debt must be rolled over at regular intervals. This creates a recurring popularity test for individual governments, rather as reality TV show contestants face a public phone vote every week. Fail that vote, as the Greek government did in early 2010, and the country can be plunged into imminent crisis. So the higher the global government debt total, the greater the risk of fiscal crisis, and the bigger the economic impact such crises will have.

Debt Comparison

The map consists of government debt, not all debt. It does not include future liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare.

Note that by this comparison Japan is the mother of all basket cases and Australia is better than all of the above.

Addendum:

Jose writes ...

I am confused with the Global Debt Clock, as reflected on your article from The Economist. I have copy of an article from The Washington Post, dated several months ago, reflecting Government debt in percentage of nominal gross domestic product. The table was reproduced from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the comparison is as follows:

Country... Economist... OECD
Canada .... 82.3% ...... 82.8%
UK ............ 76.0% ...... 71.0%
Australia.... 22.3% ..... 15.9%
Greece .... 129.4% .... 114.9%
Japan ...... 196.6% .... 189.3%
US............. 62.3% ...... 83.9%

The US at 84% is what I remember as well. Note that only the US is far different in that table. If 84%+- is accurate, this Canada and the US are approximately equal in percentage terms. I will see if I can get an answer from the Economist.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Portugal Foreign Affairs Minister Threatens "Euro Zone Exit"

Posted: 14 Nov 2010 01:46 PM PST

The simmering stew in the Eurozone took another turn for the worse as Portugal discusses a scenario in which it will abandon the Euro. The Wall Street Journal reports Portugal Foreign Minister Warns of Euro Exit

A Portuguese government minister openly speculated over the weekend that his country's economic frailties could lead to its expulsion from the euro zone, underscoring the growing fear in Europe that the continent's debt woes may force leaders to restructure the currency bloc.

In an interview with the Portuguese weekly Expresso published Saturday, Foreign Affairs Minister Luis Amado said Portugal faces "a scenario of exit from the euro zone" if it fails to tackle its economic challenges.

"There has to be an effort by all political groups, by the institutions, to understand the gravity of the situation we're facing," he said.

Portugal is now the front line of the sovereign-debt crisis that already has claimed Greece and threatens Ireland, economists say. If economic weakness is sufficient to push an otherwise crisis-free country to the brink of default and rescue, then larger countries, such as Spain and Italy, could be threatened, analysts say.

Portuguese Bluff?

In spite of the inclusion of Portugal as the "P" in "PIIGS" (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), the article makes a case that Portugal is not in any real trouble with property bubbles, excessive Debt-to-GDP, or unemployment.

Portugal did have weak growth for a decade, however, it managed to avoid the massive problems that befell Ireland, Greece, and Spain.

I suspect this threat is a bluff, but if so, it's a poorly-timed maneuver that is certain to heighten tensions in the Eurozone.

Even if higher ranking officials attempt to downplay the Foreign Affairs Minister's statements (something I quickly expect), the uncertainly may cause lasting damage.

Deep Denial in Eurozone

Note that Greece is still in massive denial about its recovery plans. See International "Extend-and-Pretend" - Greece Needs IMF Extension for renewed concerns about Greece.

In the European bond market meltdown, the ECB is Buyer of Only Resort for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. As noted above, that has Portugal fuming.

Ireland is in a bigger mess than Greece and Portugal, but Ireland does have an offer of "help" from the IMF. Meanwhile I ask (and answer) the question Can the IMF "Help" Anyone?

The answer might be different than you think. Give it a look if you have not yet done so.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Partied Out: A Recap of Australia's Now Imploding Housing Bubble; Property Bull Offers Jeremy Grantham $100m Housing bet, Party is Not Over

Posted: 14 Nov 2010 10:47 AM PST

Everyone loves a party and Australia threw one of the biggest parties in history.

Australia's wholesale liqueur central distributor (widely known as the "RBA") should have taken away the punch long ago, but as in the US (and everywhere else), the central distributor as well as government officials and street vendors, all love a party, and what a long street party it was!

After years of partying, party goers got more than a bit tipsy, especially after government officials spiked the punch hoping to keep the street party going perpetually. Out of fear of being blamed for a massive hangover, the central distributor hiked the price of punch repeatedly hoping for a quiet end to the party.

However, the central distributor's rate hike message was ignored for over a year, primarily because the punch distributor kept insisting "there is no bubble in partying". New party goers heard the message and came rushing in chanting the slogan "better party before it's too late".

Various media outlets and party sponsors mocked one "keen" non-party goer who was too busy mountain climbing to party. Everyone else was cheering the party that had "too many fundamentals to ever end"

Meanwhile, the group of bar owners and bartenders known as the "Big Four" were forced to pass along the central distributor's price hikes. Nonetheless, the masses kept drinking and partying. It was quite the spike government officials threw into the punch!

In an act of desperation, the "Big Four" bar owners finally raised prices even more than the wholesale liqueur distributor. They did this after becoming worried about the consequences of drunks passing out on the floor, in the street, and in the outback, unable to pay their "bar tabs".

Note that bar tab paying is the only real concern of the bar owners, not the mess in the streets or the outback.

Unfortunately, the actions of the distributor and the bar owners came far too late for a quiet end to the party. After singing the wildly popular hit tune "It's Different Here" at the top of their lungs more times than there are kangaroos in the outback, the party goers finally passed out in the streets and the outback in drunken stupor.

"It's Different Here" was written by the vocal group R.E. Agents.

Historians will note that exhaustion from drinking, singing, and spending money they did not have ultimately did the party goers in, not excessive price hikes as currently reported in the media and by the government sponsors of the street party, all hoping to place the blame elsewhere.

In the wake of a massive hangover, a group of party goers aptly named the Green Party, as well as various government officials and local businesses are hoping to revive the street party, as is the vocal rock band R.E. Agents, hoping to capitalize on another party tune.

Unfortunately, the "Pool of Greater Partyers" has simply dried up. Everyone is passed out on the floor, deep in debt, voices shot, and in general too pooped and too broke to party.

Australia is in effect "partied out".

A Recap of Australia's Now Imploding Housing Bubble

It certainly took longer than I expected but signs suggest the Australia housing boom is finally over. The bubble will take years to unwind.

Housing busts always begin with a surge in inventory and a dearth of buyers. Then comes falling prices, denial, and government efforts to re-blow the bubble. Let's start with a look at inventory.

SmartCompany reports Property market hit by flood of new listings

Residential property listings increased in all cities during October with the market now flooded with more properties than during 2008, one expert has warned.

SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher says the increase in listings is clear evidence the market is softening, and says the sheer amount of properties means buyers can now take their pick of the litter.

"It means the housing market is slowing down and we are expecting more listings to come into the market in November, in Brisbane there's been a 50% increase in stock levels year on year, and that's a huge increase."

"Melbourne is also a fairly rapid increase, and that recorded more stock in the market than in 2008. Sydney doesn't look too bad, but not as bad Brisbane. The market is weakening in terms of prices, and this will continue as more listings come onto the market."

Christopher also warns that with price growth remaining flat over the next 12 months, buyers will be able to snap up some bargains. He warns sellers to remain vigilant and watch the market for any further movements.

Bargains?!

Christopher has the current direction correct but he is is sadly mistaken about bargains. It will take many years before prices get back to normal and far longer for there to be any bargains.

Luxury Home Auctions Hit By Prices

Bloomberg reports Sydney Opera House Luxury-Home Auction Hit by Rates

A luxury home auction at the Sydney Opera House yesterday managed to sell only two of the 11 Australian homes on offer as the most aggressive round of interest rate increases by a Group of 20 member saps demand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75 percent on Nov. 2 and said it welcomed a cooling of house prices, even as home- price growth slowed for a third straight quarter from July to September. Auction clearance rates averaged 54.7 percent across Australia's eight capital cities during the Nov. 5 weekend, compared with an average of 63.8 percent the weekend of May 29, according to data from real estate research group RP Data.

Last week, "the Reserve Bank seemed to give the indication that they were keen to keep the lid on prices, and that's not what buyers want to hear," Brian White, chairman of the Ray White Group, which organized the event, said in an interview after the auction. "That's a very bearish sentiment."

Some properties -- including a six-bedroom rural lakefront home with a tennis court, billiards room, pool and sauna in Tuncurry, about 300 kilometers north of Sydney, and a three- level home with under-floor heating and a 12-person lift in Blakehurst, a south Sydney suburb -- failed to receive any bids.

Westpac, NAB complete rate rise quartet

Bloomberg reports Westpac, NAB complete rate rise quartet

Westpac has joined the other three major banks in raising mortgage rates more than the Reserve Bank with a 35-basis-point increase.

The move came just over an hour after National Australia Bank raised its standard variable mortgage rate by 43 basis points.

While Westpac's increase is the smallest of the big four, it still has the highest standard variable mortgage rate.

The standard variable mortgage rates for the big four banks are:

* NAB - 7.67 per cent
* ANZ - 7.80 per cent
* Commonwealth - 7.81 per cent
* Westpac - 7.86 per cent

All the rate rises are above the Reserve Bank's 25-basis-point official hike last week, but Westpac's latest move is below ANZ's 39-basis-point increase and CBA's 45-basis-point rise.

Australia Building Industry Flounders

The CourrierMail reports Housing loan interest rate rises dash any hope of a housing recovery in Queensland.

A BOUNCE-BACK in the Queensland housing industry is unlikely any time soon with the latest figures showing another drop in housing finance figures.

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures released this week show a 0.5 per cent fall in September.

This came on the back of a 1.2 per cent fall in August and was a "grim predictor" for the already struggling Queensland building industry, according to Master Builders director of housing policy Paul Bidwell.

Mr Bidwell said the fall could largely be attributed to the rapid hikes in interest rates earlier this year.

He said finance approvals were the lead indicator of building activity and the current figures showed a bounce-back for the industry was nowhere in sight.

The dim prospects for the home building industry comes as the number of existing properties flooding on to the market continues to rise.

Broker group Mortgage Choice reports a doubling in borrower requests to talk with a mortgage broker, many from potential refinancers.

The main motivation to refinance was to switch to a "cheaper loan"

Bouncebacks? Cheaper Loans?

Talk of bouncebacks 3 months into a housing implosion 3 years long overdue is complete silliness. Trapped buyers are going to be astounded at how fast prices drop one the implosion picks up steam.

That buyers are flooding the banks already hoping to refinance is a sign that many are in serious trouble. Nonetheless, the story gets even sillier.

Green Party Wants Laws to Limit Rate Hikes

Most mortgages in Australia are adjustable. A series a rate hikes has the green party howling. Bloomberg reports Australia's Greens Plan Laws to Control Bank Rates

Westpac Banking Corp. and its closest competitors in Australia would face restraints on increasing mortgage interest rates under legislation planned by the Greens Party.

The Greens aim to put a 24-month freeze on the so-called "Big Four" domestic banks, banning them from raising their interest charges by more than the Reserve Bank of Australia's increases, according to an e-mailed statement from the party today. The legislation, to be introduced to the lower house tomorrow, also seeks to scrap some small fees and ensure banks pass on decreases to official central bank rates, it said.

Westpac and National Australia Bank Ltd. on Nov. 12 announced increases to their standard variable home-loan rates, following moves by Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and Commonwealth Bank of Australia. After reporting higher profits, all four raised charges by more than the Nov. 2 quarter-percentage point move by the Reserve Bank, triggering a backlash by homeowners and verbal attacks from the government and opposition.

The rate increases "confirmed the culture of arrogance and contempt for the community we are seeing among the big banks," Treasurer Wayne Swan said in an e-mailed statement today.

Mortgage rates are a topic of public debate in Australia, where more than 90 percent of homeowners have variable-rate home loans. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said Nov. 12 the government was working on changes to the banking industry that would allow consumers to more easily leave their bank and find a better deal with smaller lenders.

The Australian government will "soon" announce "a carefully considered, effective plan to promote more competition and give people a fair go," Swan said.

"There is absolutely no justification" for the scale of the rate increases, Gillard said Nov. 12. "People who bank with those banks will judge them very harshly for it."

Justification? Of Course There's Justification

Banks are obviously scared s*less about the impending implosion. That is the justification.

Of course everyone involved should have thought about this a year ago, two years ago, and three years ago. There was ample warning from the US.

Now The Consequences

The Sydney Morning Herald reports Business conditions drop as retail flounders

Business conditions dropped to their lowest level in more than a year in October, suggesting Australia's economic activity is faltering.

The National Australia Bank business conditions index dropped to 2 in October from 7 in September, well below the long-term average of 6. It was the lowest monthly level since July 2009, when business activity was still recovering from the impact of the global financial crisis.

"The nascent recovery evident in the September survey has been put on hold for the moment," said NAB chief economist Alan Oster. The profitability index dropped to -4 from 6, going into negative territory for the first time in more than two years as prices weakened.

The trading index dropped from 13 to 4 over the same period, NAB said, while retail conditions trended down for the first time since September 1997.

Nascent Recovery Over

The nascent recovery is over. The implosion has begun. But some still have not gotten the message.

Australia Property Bull Offers Jeremy Grantham $100m Housing bet

The Australian reports Joye offers US guru $100m housing bet

HRISTOPHER Joye, an Australian property market bull, yesterday offered US guru Jeremy Grantham a $100 million bet on house prices.

.Mr Joye, managing director of property research group Rismark International, challenged his equally vocal sparring partner, GMO Capital founder and chief investment strategist Mr Grantham, to put his "money where your mouth is" on the issue of whether Australia really is in a property bubble.

Mr Grantham's downbeat views on Australia's home prices were "sensationalist and spurious", Mr Joye said.

He challenged Mr Grantham to bet the $100m over a three-year term, basing the outcome of the bet on movements in the RP Data-Rismark Australian Capital Cities Dwelling Price Index.

For every 1 per cent rise in the index, Mr Grantham would pay $1m, Mr Joye said. But for every 1 per cent decline in the index, Mr Grantham would receive $1m.

The trade would be settled at the end of three years with monthly margining to manage credit risk.

I hope Grantham takes the bet. Not that Grantham needs the money, but clearly Joye has too much and is offering to give $100 million of it away.

Punch-Free Party Addendum:

Steve Keen just pinged me with this real-time comment "Loved the outback imagery mate! I did laugh out loud a couple of times. And actually this keen hiker had his own punch-free party on the walk to Kosciuszko. Much more fun than the property bulls shindig."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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