marți, 30 noiembrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

California School Employees’ Association (CSEA) Liars Prove "It's NOT About the Kids"

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 08:31 PM PST

Anyone thinking clearly knows full well public unions are blatant liars when they request more money for schools under the pretense "It's for the kids".

Well it's NOT for the kids and CSEA moves to the top of the list in proving it. If it was "all about the kids" we would not see articles like this one by Pete Peterson in The City Journal: No Volunteers, Please, We're Unionized
Petaluma is one of those idyllic small cities (population 58,000) that dot Route 101 on the way north from the Golden Gate Bridge through the wine country. But Petaluma, struggling like most municipalities in California under the current fiscal crisis, has found delivering public services—from education to public safety—anything but pleasant.

The Petaluma City Schools district has trimmed millions from its budget over the last two years, as the deficit-ridden California state government has decreased its local support by 25 percent. The cuts have meant layoffs for district employees at all levels, from teachers to playground supervisors. In response, parents and concerned Petalumans have stepped forward to try to fill the non-teaching gaps, volunteering their time to maintain school services. The volunteers have worked in new roles identified by the school administration, but they've also stepped in to perform jobs eliminated by budget cuts. But those positions are unionized by the California School Employees' Association (CSEA)—and that's where the problems started.

When volunteers began to help answer phones in the office and support the school librarian at Petaluma Junior High School, CSEA Local 212 president Loretta Kruusmagi immediately objected.

Representing 350 clerical and janitorial staff in the Petaluma school district, Kruusmagi betrays not the least concern for the kids her union supposedly serves when she glowers: "As far as I'm concerned, they never should have started this thing. Noon-duty people [lunchtime and playground assistants]—those are instructional assistants. We had all those positions. We don't have them anymore, but those are our positions. Our stand is you can't have volunteers, they can't do our work."
Public Servants or Public Liars?

Peterson precisely sums up the situation with a couple of short, to the point, and appropriately sarcastic comments about the liars at SCEA.

Notice the possessiveness with which Kruusmagi regards these "public servants." Nice to see that it's "all about the kids" at the CSEA.

If you live in Petaluma, or any other city being raped by CSEA (or any other public union on "behalf of the kids"), it is your duty to stand up to the unions and tell the unions where to go.

After all, it's you (via taxes) and your kids (via arrogant attitudes of unions acting on their behalf) who are suffering so public unions can pad their pockets with wages and benefits those in the private sector will never see, all while chanting "it's for the kids".

No matter where you live, please write your city representatives today and demand that at the next contract renewal, the city immediately outsource any and every position possible with a message that volunteers are welcome "for the sake of the kids".

Unlike CSEA, Loretta Kruusmagi, and her ilk, you will be on solid ground. Do it now. Demand change. Nothing will happen until you do, and until you do your kids will suffer.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

"Portugal Insolvent" says Citigroup Chief Economist; Why Ireland Will Default

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 01:33 PM PST

Citigroup's chief economist, just threw fat in the Euro-fire with his statement 'Insolvent' Portugal Needs Loans Soon
Portugal is "insolvent" and will probably need soon to join the emergency-loan program from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund that's available to Greece and Ireland, according to Willem Buiter, Citigroup Inc.'s chief economist.

"The market's attention is likely to turn to Portugal's sovereign, which at current levels of interest rates and growth rates is less dramatically but quietly insolvent," Buiter wrote in a report dated yesterday. "We consider it likely that it will need to access the European Financial Stability Facility soon."

"Despite the recent drama, we believe we have only seen the opening act, with the rest of the plot still evolving," Buiter wrote. "Accessing external sources of funds will not mark the end of Ireland's troubles. The reason is that, in our view, the consolidated Irish sovereign and Irish domestic financial system is de facto insolvent." This means "either the unsecured non-guaranteed creditors of the banks, and/or the creditors of the sovereign may eventually have to accept a restructuring."
Europe Debt Fears Hit More Secure Countries

As long as we are tossing fat in the fire let's discuss the fact that Europe Debt Fears Hit More Secure Countries
Fears among European bondholders spread Tuesday from the weakest members of the euro zone to other countries, including Italy and Belgium, spurring a stepped-up search for a solution to a crisis that is increasingly putting political as well as financial strain on Europe's decade-old monetary union.

Despite the commitment of 200 billion euros, or $260 billion, in bailout funds to Europe's two most stricken nations — Greece and Ireland — institutional investors were unimpressed with the rescue effort this weekend of Ireland and continued to sell bond holdings in the weaker euro-zone economies.

But what is worse for the European Union and an increasingly stretched International Monetary Fund is that investors have begun to disgorge some of their positions in Belgium, Italy and even Germany.

The recent bond market attacks on Ireland and other weak European debtors set off as soon as the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, broached the idea of requiring bondholders to take a share of the loss. They gathered speed this week when it became clear that Ireland, as well as Greece, would have to pay a still-steep 5.87 percent interest rate on their loans — a tacit acknowledgement on Europe's part, analysts say, that even with its bailout package Ireland remains a significant default risk.

"We have created more doubts than existed before," said Paul De Grauwe, an economist in Brussels who advises the president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso. "The interest rate now being charged for Ireland is a vote of no confidence for the package and it has obviously been inspired by a notion that we should punish our sinners. If we don't succeed in containing this thing it could lead to a disaster in terms of the euro's survival."

Another idea that has gained some ground recently is a Brady plan for indebted European economies. The plan was recently put forward by a former Treasury secretary, Nicholas F. Brady, who led an effort in 1989 to help Mexico and other Latin American economies restructure their debt — requiring bondholders to take a loss of 30 percent in exchange for new, longer dated debt instruments that had lower rates and were backed by 30-year United States zero-coupon bonds. Much criticized at the time, the plan is now seen as the first step of Latin America's recovery.

"The key was getting banks to write down their debt and accept a new security," Mr. Brady said during an interview. "Why don't people get to work and get something done?"
Why Don't We Get Something done?

Gee. That's a good question. Let's ask Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, and ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet.

Noyer said "As far as I'm concerned, I exclude that there will be haircuts in the future" (yes, that's a real quote).

Trichet warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel not to "unsettle bondholders".

The ECB wants a free lunch but no haircuts. That's why nothing of merit gets done.

Moreover, the current scheme is guaranteed to blow sky high. Here's why: Ireland has to pay an average interest rate of 5.8% for the loans while shrinking its deficit from 30% of GDP to 3% of GDP.

It is impossible for Ireland to grow enough to pay back interest on the loan. Ireland will default.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Google to Offer Groupon $5-6 Billion; From Startup to Megabucks in 2 Years; "Grouponicus" Holiday Deals

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 12:15 PM PST

It's not easy to to go from startup to $6 billion in two short years. That Groupon is about to do so is testimony as to just what can happen when a good idea goes viral.

Certainly Groupon had the right idea in these cost-conscious times: super-deals on goods and services that people want.

Groupon hooks up buyers with sellers at fantastic prices, but only if enough people sign up. Sellers determine how big the group of buyers need to be in advance, and how many offers they wish to make.

That simple idea will now net Groupon a reported $5-6 Billion deal with Google.

Please consider Google Is Said to Be Poised to Buy Groupon
Google is near a deal to acquire Groupon, the pioneering online discounter, for as much as $6 billion, people with direct knowledge of the matter told DealBook on Monday.

At that price, Groupon — known for its daily discounts — would be one of Google's largest acquisitions, dwarfing its $3.1 billion purchase of DoubleClick, the display advertising giant, in 2007.

The deal would also be Google's boldest foray in local business online advertising, a large and untapped market it has been trying to get into, most recently by promoting Marissa Mayer to oversee the local business and attempting to buy Yelp, the local review site, last year.

The average Groupon deal offers 50 to 90 percent off retail goods and services, from restaurant certificates to skydiving lessons. It has grown beyond local merchants to encompass retailers like Gap, which offered a nationwide deal this summer. On the day of the Gap promotion, Groupon sold 440,000 units and generated $11 million in revenue.

Groupon's success has helped turn the company into a cash-generating machine, signing up more than 12 million registered users and reaping more than $350 million in estimated annual revenue.
"Grouponicus Deals"

Techland reports Groupon Starts "Grouponicus Deals" Series For Holiday Season
If you're one of the people who like taking advantage of Groupon's deals, your holiday is about to get better. In addition to posting a deal of the day, Groupon will also post Grouponicius offers, additional items that would make great gifts for the season.

There will be a total of 650 deals throughout this season, according to TechCrunch.Unlike the typical deals that are done at the end of the day, Grouponicius offers will last from three to five days. The first deal is a download of Rihanna's newest album LOUD, available for only $5. It marks the first time that the social buying site has attempted to distribute digital music. Some of the other offers will include popular deals that people might have missed the first time, Groupon's CEO Andrew Mason told the Wall Street Journal.
Refer Friends and Get $10 "Groupon Bucks"

Groupon has a referral program in which participants can accumulate $10 Groupon Buck for each referral.



A few months back I had the idea of accumulating the biggest pile of Groupon Bucks ever (although I have no idea what I would do with them). Alas someone actually has to buy something within 72 hours for anyone to get $10.

It's a catchy system. People getting all their friends to sign up, Groupon gets free names, and few ever collect $10 in Groupon bucks.

My aspiration of accumulating a mountain of Groupon bucks is thus now shattered, but if you are going to join anyway (it's free), you may as well use my ID to Sign Up For Groupon Offers For Your City.

After having done so, you can "Embrace Grouponicus"

Is it Possible to Live Off Groupon Alone for a Full Year?

It began with a challenge from Groupon's founder, Andrew Mason to see who would be willing to "Live Off Groupon" for an entire year, with no help from family.
Could you live off Groupons for an entire year?

The premise is simple: No cash. The Groupawn (customer chosen to Live Off Groupon) has nothing but a year's supply of Groupons good for the best things to eat, do, see and buy across the country. From skydiving and upscale cuisine to body waxing and foreign language classes, Groupon deals will shape the Groupawn's daily life. He will need to rely on the kindness of strangers for social niceties (like tax and tip) and basic human needs (like somewhere to sleep and a ride to any of Groupon's 60 cities.)

The entry page warned, "Who shouldn't apply!? Probably everyone shouldn't apply. We want to be honest from the beginning: this will be a catastrophic disruption to your life. But you will have zero expenses for a year. You'll get to travel across the country trying all the cool stuff we feature on Groupon. And you might get $100,000…in money."

But Josh Stevens stood out from the pack, displaying creativity and a will to do anything (like hitching a ride on a mail truck during the semifinal interviews in Chicago.) We confiscated his wallet, sublet his apartment and put his belongings in storage. He is ours.

Josh began his journey on May 10, 2010 – if he lasts until May 10, 2011, he will earn $100,000.

The Rules

NO CASH
Only five people allowed to visit Josh once during one year
No overnight visits from friends/family
No care packages unless approved by Groupon
No performing jobs for goods or money
Bartering Groupons for goods or services is allowed
Must be an exemplary Groupon customer at all times / polite, excellent tipper

About Josh - The Contest Winner

Josh Stevens is a 28 year old man from Chicago, Illinois, who applied for Live Off Groupon in between applying for grad school. He sports two arms, two legs, a lot of height and a jolly demeanor. He considers himself a foodie, a night owl and a Rockband enthusiast, but above all else, he is the Groupawn.
One Brave Soul Lives Off Groupon

It's now 200 days in. "Groupawn" Josh Stevens is still going strong. You can follow him at Live Off Groupon.

Back in August I had a few questions for Groupon. My questions were promptly answered by Groupon's Julie Mosser.

I had intended to do an article on Groupon back then. For some reason it just never happened. Here are my questions as they are still pertinent.

Contest Questions

  • How can someone live off Groupons, be a generous tipper and not use cash? It seems physically impossible. Even without the tipping factor and "unlimited Groupons" the deals all have a cash price. Even a helicopter ride for $70 and a savings of $200 or whatever, still costs $70.
  • Can you please explain how "unlimited Groupons" can possibly cover all costs including tipping?
  • Other Josh Stevens with an "unlimited" amount, what is largest amount of Groupons anyone has?
  • What percentage of the time so far, is Josh Stevens living in a hotel vs. other offers.

Groupon Replies
Hi Mish

Thanks for your interest in Groupon! All good questions...

Josh has been provided with unlimited Groupons that he didn't have to pay for, so even if the deal "still costs $70," Groupon gave it to him.

Groupons do not cover tax or gratuity, which is what makes the program such a smart marketing vehicle - Josh has to reach out on his blog (www.liveoffgroupon.com) Twitter, and Facebook in order to find complete strangers willing to help him.

To date he has found people willing to donate lodging, plane tickets, etc....but he can only accept them if there's some sort of barter or trade.

It's difficult to say what's the largest amount of Groupons someone has because they're constantly redeemed - it's not unusual for our best customers in each market to have a 'bank' of 40-60 that they're constantly using and replenishing.

Although we have Marcus Hotels and the Fairmont West Coast collection, Josh has spent less than half his time in hotels.

Let me know if I can get you anything else.

Julie Mosser
There you have it. "Groupawn" Josh Stevens is sailing for $100,000 and the story of a lifetime. The Groupon owners are sailing for $6 billion and the deal of a lifetime. Dreams are still possible and it can all start with the simplest of ideas.

Best wishes to both Josh Stevens and Groupon.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Effect of Housing and Trade with China on Durable Goods Shipments 1994 to October 2010

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 09:52 AM PST

Inquiring minds may be interested in a chart of the dollar value of durable goods shipments 1994 to October 2010 in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) terms.



click on chart for sharper image

The chart is courtesy of my friend Tim Wallace.

The trends tell two distinct stories. In nominal terms note the housing boom-bust story. During the recession, shipments plunged all the way back to 1997 levels and have since "recovered" to 2005 levels.

In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, shipments fell off the scale to pre-1994 levels and in spite of a big rally, shipments are still below 1994 levels.

Those looking to bash China will note that the US and China signed an agreement for China to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO) right at the inflation-adjusted peak in durable goods shipments.

However, China did not join the WTO for another two years and besides, correlation does not imply causation (although other evidence such as trade deficits does suggest a relation).

Moreover, many see falling prices as a good thing. Others don't. For a discussion, please see Miracle of Survival and Falling Inflation Expectations

Regardless of whether you see falling prices as good or bad, China has been a deflationary force when it comes to manufactured goods. That situation is unlikely to change and it is stirring up protectionist sentiment in Congress and the administration.

Trade wars are not a good thing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

China Approves Gold Fund; India Inflation Hits 8.5%; Universal Dumping of Spain; Lobster Smuggling Hits Australia; Asia Slowdown led by Japan, Korea

Posted: 30 Nov 2010 02:01 AM PST

International news is flying this evening. With most eyes focused on Ireland and the Euro, let's take a quick look at other news stories of merit.

China Approves Gold Fund of Funds

MarketWatch reports China Approves Gold Fund of Funds
China's securities regulators have given the go ahead for a mutual fund to invest in foreign exchange-traded gold funds, potentially tapping interest among mainland China investors who face negative real interest rates on their bank deposits and want to hedge against inflation.

Lion Fund Management Co. said they received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Monday to proceed with the fund, the first of its kind for mainland China, according to a statement posted on the Beijing-based fund provider's website.

The fund has been granted permission to invest outside of China under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII), the fund managers said in the statement.

The fund will invest in gold-backed exchange-traded funds operated outside of China, though the fund provider's statement didn't specify which ETFs, or which markets, it was considering.
India Economy Overheats, Inflation Hits 8.5 Percent

It's safe to add India to the list of countries growing too fast for their own good. China is the other major one.

Please consider India's Economy Expands Faster-Than-Estimated 8.9%
India's economy grew more than economists estimated last quarter, adding to evidence of a strengthening in domestic demand that's stoked inflation by placing strains on the nation's transport and power systems.

Gross domestic product rose 8.9 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier, matching the revised pace of growth in the previous quarter, the Central Statistical Organisation said in a statement in New Delhi today. That was above the 8.2 percent median estimate of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao on Nov. 2 raised the benchmark repurchase rate and the reverse repurchase rate by a quarter-point each to 6.25 percent and 5.25 percent, saying inflation continues to hold above the "comfort zone."

The wholesale-price inflation rate was 8.58 percent in October, compared with the "ideal" level of 4 percent to 5 percent, according to Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee. Consumer prices are rising at a pace near 10 percent, the fastest in the Group of 20 nations after Argentina.
I fail to see how 4-5% inflation is ideal. Regardless, 8.58% is certainly not ideal and India will have to step on the brakes hard sooner rather than later. India is clearly overheating.

Asia-Wide Slowdown

China has its foot on the brakes right now and the market does not seem to be enjoying the recent ride at all. Meanwhile, please note Japan, South Korea factory output slumps as Asia shifts
Japanese companies cut production for the fifth month and by the biggest margin since February 2009, while South Korea's industrial output fell for the third month in a row, disappointing markets which had bet on a rebound.

South Korea, among the first economies to regain cruising speed after the global recession, is also losing steam, though Seoul still bets on solid export growth next year.

"The inventory rebuilding cycle after the recession has come to an end, and what we're left with is final domestic demand, which isn't doing that well across the globe," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.

Economists had long expected Asia and the world economy would slow in the second half of this year and early in 2011 as the rebuilding of inventories that had been depleted during the recession was drawing to an end and the effects of stimulus packages were wearing off.

But the cool-down came sooner and turned out to be more pronounced than many economists had anticipated. The economies of the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore all contracted in the past quarter, while growth in South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia slowed markedly.

That leaves China, which slowed only marginally to a 9.6 percent annual clip in the third quarter, and India, as the mainstays of growth in the region.
The "mainstays" of the region are overheating while everyone else has stalled or contracting. Good luck with that investment-wise.

Universal Dumping of Spain

Meanwhile, back in Euroland, Spanish Banks Face Funding Hurdle in 2011 Amid Bailout Threat.
Spain's banks may struggle to refinance about 85 billion euros ($111 billion) in debt next year as costs surge on concern continental Europe's fourth- biggest economy may need an Irish-style bailout.

"There's a universal dumping of Spain going on," said Andrea Williams, who helps manage about 623 million pounds ($968 million), including shares in Banco Santander SA, at Royal London Asset Management. "The fear is that Portugal, Spain and Italy are now in line after what happened in Ireland."

The average yield investors demand to hold euro-denominated Spanish bank bonds, relative to government debt, rose 117 basis points to 361 basis points in November -- the biggest monthly jump on record, according to data compiled by Bank of America Corp.

As the cost of insuring the country's debt against default rose to its highest level, Spanish lenders now pay the biggest premium ever on their debt relative to other banks in Europe. Spreads on Spanish bank bonds in euros rose to a record 147 basis points more than the average for all lender debt denominated in the currency, up from a gap of 63 basis points on Oct. 31, according to Bank of America data.

"The big elephant in the room is not Portugal but, of course, it's Spain," Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, said at a conference in Prague yesterday. "There is not enough official money to bail out Spain if trouble occurs."

The country's lenders have about 30 percent of their medium- and long-term debt maturing by December 2012, according to the Bank of Spain's October financial stability report. The report says the fact that 50 percent of maturities fall after 2013 "softens" the refinancing needs of the lenders, even as it advises them to rely more on debt with longer maturities.

"Asking the Spanish banks how they are going to meet these refinancing needs is absolutely a fair question for them," Claire Kane, a banking analyst at MF Global in London, said in a phone interview.
Lobster Smuggling Hits Australia

In the most bizarre story in this international roundup, Lobsters Caught in China Smuggling Crackdown
Australia's lucrative rock lobster export industry has been hit by a Chinese crackdown on illegal smuggling into the mainland through Hong Kong, industry representatives said Tuesday.

Since Sunday, Australian exporters haven't been able to get any of the live crustaceans into China, said Rodney Treloggen, chief executive of the Tasmanian Rock Lobster Fishermen's Association.

"Our major market has disappeared overnight," he said.

Mr. Treloggen said the Australian industry has "obviously done something to upset the Chinese" but what that is remains a mystery. "There's no formal banning of the product."

Lobster prices in Australia have fallen by half to less than A$25 a kilogram from A$50 since the trade row began, he said.
Risks to the Downside

  • China is overheating.
  • India is overheating.
  • Philippines, Thailand and Singapore are all in contraction.
  • Growth in South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia has slowed markedly.
  • Contagion threatens Spain.
  • The property bubble in Australia is busting.
  • Ireland cannot possibly pay back its debts.
  • Greece needs an extension.
  • US corporate bond sales have collapsed.
  • There are significant tax cut and unemployment insurance issues in the US.

In case you did not figure it out, risks to the global economy are enormously skewed to the downside.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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