Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Amazon Drops WikiLeaks on Request of Sen. Lieberman; Lie of the Day from Hillary Clinton; How NOT to Stop Leaks; Why we have Leaks
- "Sell the News" Bearish Flattening of Yield Curve Continues; Reflections on "Relative Value"
- Social Enterprise Survival Tactics and Some Very Uncreative Economic Fix-Its
- Barbershops Open in 2013, Market Screams for Haircuts Today; European Crisis Spreads to Core as Belgian Bond Yields Surge; Another "Stress Test" Scam
| Posted: 01 Dec 2010 04:29 PM PST WikiLeaks just gave Senator Joe Lieberman, Amazon, and the Department of Homeland Security what I consider to be a well deserved finger. Amazon dropped WikiLeaks from its servers but is now back up on servers in Sweden at http://www.wikileaks.org/ Let's tie this all together starting with the Wall Street Journal Report WikiLeaks Site Kicked Off Amazon Servers Amazon.com Inc. has stopped hosting WikiLeaks from its Web servers, prompting the controversial group to move its website to a European provider.White House Seeks New Ways to Hide Damaging Data Political HotSheet reports White House Moves to Change Classified Information Procedures in Response to WikiLeaks President Obama's national security team is coordinating new interagency efforts to review and improve the way the government handles classified information, in the wake of the latest WikiLeaks release of secret information.Whistle-Blower Bill Gains Steam The response from the administration is not to crack down on abuses but rather to provide new ways of ignoring abuses. Just ask yourself, has anyone outside of Bernie Madoff ever been prosecuted, fired, or even reprimanded over fraud, torture, kickbacks, or anything else? Here's the bonus-point followup question: How many times did the SEC fail to act on information that proved Bernie Madoff was a crook? The answer to those questions help explain this pathetic response: After WikiLeaks, Whistle-Blower Bill Gains Steam Following the latest baring of U.S. secrets on the Internet, Congress is poised to pass legislation giving employees in the most sensitive government jobs a way to report corruption, waste and mismanagement without turning to outside organizations like WikiLeaks.Anyone who believes that propaganda has holes in the head. The WhiteHouse is not interested in acting on anything, the WhiteHouse is interested in stopping leaks. So now we will get legislation that will allow whistle-blowers to submit reports to some undefined administration hack who will promptly throw the whistles into the ashcan. Lie of the Day from Hillary Clinton Inquiring minds are reading a statement from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that WikiLeaks Won't Hurt U.S. Diplomacy The recent leak of thousands of sensitive U.S. diplomatic cables will have no adverse effect on America's international relations, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton declared Wednesday at a security summit.Series of Lies How's that for a series of lies? If people have every right to ask questions, how the hell can questions be asked if the US government classifies everything it does not want anyone to know? The US has no interest in discussing waterboarding, torture, the killing of innocent civilians with our allies or anyone else. The US wants to and is going to do everything it can to suppress that information. If WikiLeaks has damaging information about Bank of America, we should all want to see it. We should all stand up for the rights to make that data public, not sweep it under the rug. We do not have a Department of Homeland Security, we have a Department of Homeland Insecurity putting on a pathetic parade of pomp with full body scanners and pat downs that will not do a damn thing. Why We Have Leaks No one has bothered to tackle the question why we have security problems and leaks. I will tell you why: The US has troops in 140 countries around the world, we arrogantly go where we have no vested interest going, we support corrupt regimes when it suits our purposes, we follow the asinine creed "the enemy of our enemy is our friend", and we believe we - and we alone - act as the moral authority to be the world's policeman. When you do that you make enemies. When you make enemies you create security problems. Instead of addressing WHY we make enemies, we setup sham terrorist organizations like the Department of Homeland Security whose efforts make us less secure. Running List of Needed Criminal Investigations Instead of addressing fundamental problems we want to stop leaks. I will tell you how to stop leaks: Don't do stupid things! Stop trying to be the world's policeman. Prosecute fraud. I have a running list of things we have ignored in FDIC Authorizes $1 Billion Lawsuits Against Failed-Bank Executives; Token Search for Low-Profile Scapegoats It's time to update my rolling list of who should be criminally indicted and why.How NOT to Stop Leaks Fools like Lieberman think we can stop leaks by legislation. We can't. We can only stop leaks by fostering an attitude from the top that will prosecute fraud and corruption instead of looking for scapegoats, and instead of pursuing policeman policies that "the end justifies the means" President Obama is a blatant liar. He promised to release details of US torture of prisoners. He failed to do so. I praise WikiLeaks or anyone else who is willing to disclose the hypocrisy of this president and this administration. I am not a Republican. I am an independent. I praise WikiLeaks or anyone else who is willing to disclose the hypocrisy of Republicans as well. I fear for our country and the path it is taking. We need to elect someone willing to stand up TO the banks, stand up TO our bloated military, stand up TO public unions, and stand FOR less government spending, stand FOR prosecuting fraud wherever it takes, stand FOR smaller government. President Obama is not that person, nor was President Bush. We need a Ron Paul, or someone like him, willing to do what is needed before we destroy ourselves. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| "Sell the News" Bearish Flattening of Yield Curve Continues; Reflections on "Relative Value" Posted: 01 Dec 2010 12:00 PM PST Curve Watchers Anonymous notes a continuing bearish flattening of the yield curve as shown in the following chart.  click on chart for sharper image A bearish flattening occurs when the curve tightens with yields generally rising. Conversely, a bullish flattening occurs when the curve tightens with yields generally falling. Since early November, 5-year treasury yields have risen about 60 basis point, 10-year yields about 45 basis points, and 30-year treasury yields have risen perhaps 5 basis points. Once again we can see the results in today's action with thanks to Bloomberg.  Buy the Rumor Sell the News Note the continued unwind of the "sure-thing" treasury bet, with the Fed concentrating its purchases in the 3-to-7-year range hoping to drive down rates, and everyone front-running the trade. That trade is now unwinding. Clearly this reaction is not what Bernanke wanted at all. Reflections on "Relative Value" Check out that .81 yield on 3-year treasuries. On October 18, investors scarfed up $750 million of 3-year Walmart Bonds yielding .75% for the stupid reason they yielded more than treasuries. Now treasuries are yielding more. This is what happens when investors chase "relative value" instead of asking if there is any real value at all. The same idea applies to those chasing the stock market at these lofty levels on the basis "stocks are cheap relative to treasuries" or some other nonsensical reason to justify valuations. There is no value, only unwarranted bullishness. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Social Enterprise Survival Tactics and Some Very Uncreative Economic Fix-Its Posted: 01 Dec 2010 10:09 AM PST New York Times writer David Segal has rounded up a group of folks offering "creative" solutions to our economic problems. The #1 solution comes from an economic illiterate who proposes to fix the economy by lowering the retirement age. In reality, that is just another fiscally unsustainable way of giving away money. Please consider Some Very Creative Economic Fix-Its, an article whose primary merit is the opening sentence. We are not going to shop our way out of this mess.The article could have ended right there. Indeed, I would have given the article glowing accolades had Segal changed the title to "We Can't Shop Our Way To Prosperity" with a one sentence body "Therefore, we should not even try." If Segal wanted to add additional body to the article he could have solicited opinions from leading Keynesian clowns and trashed them. Instead he solicited opinions from Keynesian clowns and dreamers calling the ideas "creative". Segal continues .... What's needed is a path to sustained growth. That means a strategy for the millions who have lost their jobs in recent years and some hope for the more than 125,000 new entrants to the United States labor market each month.Is that creative enough? Hells bells, why not just give everyone money? That would get the economy humming according to most Keynesian clowns. Of course doing so in a size big enough to matter would cause prices to go soaring. One look at the public pension woes of Greece, Spain, and France should be enough to tell you why Galbraith's idea is absolutely loony. All of those countries are in fiscal trouble and need to increase retirement age. We are in fiscal trouble and Galbraith wants to reduce retirement age. The big problem with Keynesian clowns is they cannot look ahead (assuming of course they can think at all). They never bother explaining where the money comes from, what happens to prices, interest on the national debt, what jobs (if any) are created by their proposals, or anything else of merit that needs explaining. The article was supposed to cover "We are not going to shop our way out of this mess" yet the lead "creative" idea is to give give money to those over 62 so we can continue shopping our way out of this mess, even though experiences in Europe as well as common sense should tell you the idea is potty. However, the article is not entirely worthless because it continues with some common sense statements as follows. "Growth doesn't come from big federal programs," says John H. Cochrane of the University of Chicago. "The government didn't tell us" to create the vast variety of profitable businesses on the Internet, but "it did tell us to buy houses and look what that got us."Unfortunately Calabria then blows it by professing an "upside" to 3 or 4 percent inflation: "If you have a house worth $200,000 and a mortgage of $250,000, inflation is going to raise the nominal value of your home," he said. "But your mortgage will stay the same. For borrowers who are underwater, inflation will get their heads closer to above water" said Calabria. What if wages do not keep up? What if people retire and cannot keep up with property taxes? Bear in mind property taxes that should have dropped with falling property values but did not. Does inflation guarantee job growth? Does it even guarantee wage growth in an era of global wage arbitrage? What the hell are these people thinking? David Segal then dives off the deep end asking ... Is there no technological marvel on the horizon that could create an unexpected bounty in jobs?Is that really a creative idea? Pardon me for asking the obvious question, but if iPhones and iPads and thousands of Apps and all kinds of technology advancements are not providing a source of robust jobs, are we to believe the next Fruit Ninja app will do so? Thankfully Gar Alperovitz, a professor at the University of Maryland, addresses that set of questions with a simple, if not overly polite response, "That's a pretty wispy hope." In a far more fruitful discussion .... Professor Alperovitz pointed to local co-operatives that are sprouting up around the country. They tend to be employee owned, and get off the ground with private and foundation funding. Many of his favorite examples are found in Cleveland, of all places — like the Evergreen Cooperative Laundry, an employee-owned firm that provides laundry services to hospitals, which started in 2009.Survival Mentality That last block above is likely where we are headed. It depicts survival mentality with growing income inequality. It certainly does not address David Segal's lead premise "What's needed is a path to sustained growth." Thus, the article does not live up to it's billing. It provides no realistic answers to the premise. I am sure there are numerous other "creative" ways to spend other people's money, but none of them will be any good either. The cure is time and innovation from private enterprise, not government-mandated socialism or Keynesian claptrap. Eventually there will be innovation that will create jobs, I suspect on the energy front. In the meantime, raising taxes to give money away to unproductive members of society will drain money away from private enterprise's need and ability to develop real solutions. That is the second tragedy in Galbraith's absurd proposal. Social Enterprise Survival Tactics Ironically, Segal could have gotten two good articles out of one poor one, by explaining why "creative" Fix-Its are doomed, followed by an article on the implications of social enterprise survival tactics. We have already seen survival network success stories like Craig's List, Groupon, various coupon networks, Facebook, and Monster job advertising, all of those to the detriment of newspaper advertising and mainstream media opportunities, all the the effect of increasing the flow of information and lowering prices, all to the benefit of shoppers. Groupon is a smashing success as noted in Google to Offer Groupon $5-6 Billion; From Startup to Megabucks in 2 Years; "Grouponicus" Holiday Deals The success in Groupon is certainly the opposite of what Monetarist clowns like Ben Bernanke want. Groupon gets buyers and sellers together for group bargain prices. People will survive better if prices are lower not higher. The latest trends towards frugality involve kids from college moving back in with their parents and taxpayer attacks on public union wages and benefits. Those changes all have a common theme of getting the biggest bang for the buck. With boomers headed into retirement underfunded and overleveraged, most in desperate need of downsizing, social enterprise survival tactics constitute a much needed deflationary force. We need more for our money not less. For more on this theme, please see Unthinking Economic Parrots and Deflation Fighting Madness The point being, we are not going to inflate (or shop) our way out of this mess, and Japan shows it is a fool's errand to try. Unfortunately, "creative" ideas keep propping up, not only keep to keep the existing fiscal insanity humming, but to make things cost more on top of it. The math doesn't work. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 01 Dec 2010 12:08 AM PST Swaps are soaring in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece, and now Belgium. The market has correctly figured out there will be haircuts on senior bank debts. The problem is the ECB wants a free lunch but no haircuts until 2013, hoping of course the need for haircuts goes away in a few years. Central bankers cannot and will not win this battle of nerves. The market is bigger than the Central bank. Market Screams For Haircuts Today In country after country the crisis is spreading because fools at the ECB want to delay haircuts. Just ask Let's ask Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, or ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet. Christian Noyer said "As far as I'm concerned, I exclude that there will be haircuts in the future". Jean-Claude Trichet warned German Chancellor Angela Merkel not to "unsettle bondholders". No-Scissors Bluff Fails Unfortunately for the ECB, the market's reaction to the no-scissors bluff of Christian Noyer and Jean-Claude Trichet was to suggest a need for haircuts in Belgium. As evidence that hair grows best when and where you least want it, please consider European Crisis Spreads to Core as Belgian Bond Yields Surge Europe's sovereign crisis is spreading to the heart of the 16-nation bloc as investors question Belgium's ability to cut the euro region's third-highest debt load, overshadowing its economic performance.Europe Debt Fears Hit More Secure Countries The New York Times reports Europe Debt Fears Hit More Secure Countries Despite the commitment of 200 billion euros, or $260 billion, in bailout funds to Europe's two most stricken nations — Greece and Ireland — institutional investors were unimpressed with the rescue effort this weekend of Ireland and continued to sell bond holdings in the weaker euro-zone economies.Ireland Will Default Ireland cannot possibly pay back its debt. It needs to shrink its deficit from 30% of GDP to 3% of GDP while going on a massive austerity program and having to pay back obscene loans at 5.8%. Because of the austerity program Ireland cannot possibly grow at 5.8%. Heck it highly unlikely to grow at all. It cannot afford the interest, let alone the principal. The market has figured this out whether the ECB and EU have or not. Market Won't Wait For Haircuts With scissors in hand, Minyanville professor Peter Atwater says European Leaders Should Focus on the Banks, Not the Sovereigns As Bloomberg notes this morning, the bank run has now extended from Ireland to Portugal. Yet again, credit is a coward and is fleeing uncertainty. Depositors, like bondholders, know that the intertwined European government/bank network needs less, not more debt and that someone is ultimately going to get a haircut. And with Ireland already implementing "burden sharing" and the EU suggesting that the barbershops will clearly open in 2013, there is little incentive to stick around to see when that happens.Stress Test Failures The last European bank stress test back in July showed that 84 out of 91 banks were well capitalized, including the two largest Irish banks. According to the BBC, Irish finance minister Brian Lenihan "welcomed the increased transparency that the EU-wide test had brought to the banking system". Anyone who could think clearly knew those stress tests were a scam, purposely designed so that nearly any bank could pass. The results are now in, and it took less than 4 month to show just how absurd those stress test findings were. Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland now await bailouts from the EU and IMF. Another Stress Test Scam Coming Up Another stress test is planned, but the EU (may or may not) publish the results. Presumably if the reports are good the EU may publish them, but they won't if the results are bad. In yet another truth-is-stranger-than-fiction moment, the Wall Street Journal reports Fresh Round of 'Stress Tests' Planned for European Banks As market sentiment toward the euro zone sharply deteriorates, European officials are planning a new round of bank "stress tests" that they say will be more rigorous than the widely discredited exams conducted earlier this year.Straight From the Twilight-Zone That hair-raising announcement seems like it is straight out of the Twilight-Zone. The EU clearly admitted a need for an honest stress test while simultaneously admitting fear of publishing one. On that admission, can anyone possibly believe the results of the next test, assuming they even publish it? And what will it say if they don't? This bizarre state of affairs can hardly inspire confidence. However, it may increase the demand for scissors, not exactly what the EU wants at all. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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